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I know it is early to bring this topic up but I have been thinking about it lately, especially since he is putting up such big numbers this year. Most of the discussion thus far has been would Arenado opt out because he is displeased with the team’s commitment to winning? My impression is the answer to that question is NO. I think he likes playing in St. Louis and he seems to really like playing with Goldy. They are two peas in a pod.
However, since he is putting up such big numbers, what if he decides he can get a bigger contract by opting out? His current deal has 5 years/$144M remaining. Could he beat that deal if he becomes a free agent? It is possible. He will be 32 next season but it is reasonable to think he could be a very good player for another five or six years.
If this happens it would be bad news for the Cardinals because in order to bring him back they would have to pay him by using Cardinal money only. There would be no subsidy from Colorado (at least I think that is the case). I am not saying this will happen but it is something to keep an eye on. Hopefully we have a deep postseason run and he decides that 5 years/$144M is good enough.
There is one other very important possibility.
If Arenado says he wants more money (which I have seen no quote that even hints at this), the Cards could offer to tack on another year or add some incentives (that he may or may not make) or increase the AAV down the line or …
IMO, what would potentially drive him away would be to have to play on another non-competitive team. And that is not the case here.
Even so, between now and this fall, some will rekindle the idea of him returning home to play for the Dodgers, etc. But it would all be unfounded speculation unless/until he changes his tune, which has been very clearly that he wants to finish his career as a Cardinal.
All in all, I wouldn’t give the chance of him leaving to be even 5%. But until it is official this fall, it is not zero.
Practical experience has conditioned me to not worry about contracts, trades, etc. and simply enjoy watching talented players feature their skills while they’re here and in a Cardinal uniform, because just like the outcome of any particular ballgame, you never really know what’s going to happen next. I’ll continue to reserve my worry to the next pitch in a tight and close ballgame. That’s plenty stressful enough for me.
It would be nice if Carlson, O’Neill, Molina, DeJong, and Edman contributed consistent offense, so Nado and Goldy didn’t feel so much pressure every game. Sometimes it feels like 2 Goldilocks and the 7 dwarfs.
Nice! “2 Goldilocks and the 7 dwarfs”…I’ll also say that one of my favorite Cardinals, Eddie, is certainly not getting the job done. At some point soon, he has to amp up his offensive contribution or I may have to concede that I was wrong about him and that he may be no more than a valuable utility guy.
I think there is at least a good chance he opts out and chases money – because he can control whether he goes to a contender. As Brian said, he could opt to join the Dodgers.
Evan Longoria’s contract is up after this year, so the Giants are also a possibility.
At a minimum, I would think Arrenado would have the Cardinals undo those deferred payments, which only pay 2% interest.
He isn’t going to…quit trying to buy trouble.
I am not sure what that means but I assume it isn’t a compliment.
Again, I do not think he is unhappy being a Cardinal at all. I think he wants to stay in St. Louis, however, this could be his last shot at free agency so he might want a bigger contract. If so, the Cards will have to pay up.
Some of Arenado’s last few contract years are at lower salaries. My guess is those out years get beefed up some and that it happens without him ever formally opting out
Practical experience has conditioned me to not worry about contracts, trades, etc. and simply enjoy watching talented players feature their skills while they’re here . . . you never really know what’s going to happen next.
1td, this is a wise take — but hard to so for some us!
Freeman got 6 years and $162M at a less premium position in a worse market. Arenado’s 5 years and $144M would seem to be about the middle market value for a guy like Nolan. If he thought he could beat that, I could see him opting out. Like others, my suspicion is that he’ll talk with the Cards and get another year or a bump in AAV. The Cards have 20 million reasons to acquiesce.
stlcard25…And Freddie is certainly creating the impression that he’s worth the money in his first season as a Dodger. At the same time, and I’ve no idea how accurate these articles are, I’ve read that Freeman has had some misgivings about leaving the ballclub that drafted him in ’07. Nado creates the impression that he intends to stick around as a Redbird, but as far as I’m aware, it’s not possible to read the entire mindset of a human being. And even if it were, that mindset could change with a slight breeze from any direction. We’ll see what happens.
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