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Yeah, Bikemike, that ’85 team eclipsed the 100 W plateau, and after finishing almost 30 games off the pace in ’86, the Redbirds returned to the WS in ’87. It’s baseball so, “youneverknow.”
I’ll put my predictions out there. I think the Brewers defense full of SS and CF and history of getting value of random pitchers will get them to the division title. The Cubs have done enough to most likely win a Wild Card and I do see why most pick the Cubs for the division. The Cards will likely be in it for most of the year which may be a detriment for future years. I think if they trade Matz and Mikolas, they will actually win more games with McGreevy and Mathews. CF and C will be weak spots for the Cards and I do expect a decent bounce back from Arenado (110ish wRC+). The Reds have so many holes in their offense and I don’t like their rotation. The Pirates have a great rotation, but their offense is going to be very bad.
Rank | Team | W | L | * -----|-----------|----|----|----------- 1. | Brewers | 91 | 71 | 2. | Cubs | 88 | 74 | Wild Card 3. | Cardinals | 80 | 82 | 4. | Reds | 78 | 84 | 5. | Pirates | 70 | 92 |Any guess is as good as the next, but I don’t feel it’s out of the realm of possibilities to envision a ’25 Cardinal team finishing up 12 games under even. They finished up at 20 games under in ’23, and I think that team contained more talent on the roster than the Redbirds are currently projected to have available to place onto the playing field in ’25 so, I don’t think 87 L’s are out of the question. It’s my best guess that this team will struggle to stay around .500 and won’t ever come close to competing with top tier opponents. And I can comfortably predict that the Cardinals will never win anything without a Big League manager.
I think the park effect in Wrigley is overlooked. Tucker in a walk-year stat push is going to see Wrigley cost him, and everyone else will see it too. The Cubs WS will have spurred the interest and development which ultimately destroy the franchise as the winds continue to blow in year after year.
Those who credit the make-shift pitching staff in Miller Park will eat their words as the correction occurs and their staff can’t endure the launching pad in which they pitch. To the back of the pack with yous guys.
Those nice Red arms will continue to overthrow in their bandbox, and the Reds will continue to see their rotation ride the Rollercoaster of young pitching. They will be good…third place good that is.
Pirate pitching is all the rage, but they were already breaking down last year. That staff will hold together for most of the year, but the Buckos fall short.
I’m betting that Gorman and Walker make big leaps forward.I believe Aranado and Contreras will have big years. I am predicting Mikolas improves from negative to over 2 war. Birds win the Central.Gs…based on common sense.
GC, everyone is entititled to their opinion but that is vague explanation.
I think the park effect in Wrigley is overlooked. Tucker in a walk-year stat push is going to see Wrigley cost him, and everyone else will see it too. The Cubs WS will have spurred the interest and development which ultimately destroy the franchise as the winds continue to blow in year after year.
Those who credit the make-shift pitching staff in Miller Park will eat their words as the correction occurs and their staff can’t endure the launching pad in which they pitch. To the back of the pack with yous guys.
Those nice Red arms will continue to overthrow in their bandbox, and the Reds will continue to see their rotation ride the Rollercoaster of young pitching. They will be good…third place good that is.
Pirate pitching is all the rage, but they were already breaking down last year. That staff will hold together for most of the year, but the Buckos fall short.
I’m betting that Gorman and Walker make big leaps forward.I believe Aranado and Contreras will have big years. I am predicting Mikolas improves from negative to over 2 war. Birds win the Central.Bold prediction Nigel. We might need to revisit this later in the year.
Wrigley giveth and taketh away. The wind does blow out on some days which results in beer league softball scores.
The Brewers have been underestimated for years but they always find a way. I have been burned before by believing they are toast.
The Reds do have plenty of holes but hiring Francona is worth a few extra wins in my opinion.
The Pirates will never get over the hump as long as they have an owner that makes Bill DeWitt look like Steve Cohen.
I still feel like the Cards will finish third or fourth.
Marmol managed a more talented team 2 years ago to 71 wins, you have a lame duck GM that can’t make a move and an owner looking to dump salary….75 wins or less is definitely in play
Rankings and outlook from ESPN.
Chicago Cubs
Win average: 85.5 (Last: 82.1, 15th)
In the playoffs: 56.5% (Last: 44.0%)
Champions: 1.8% (Last 1.1%)
Expectation: Win the division without committing long-term payroll.Reality: The last part just feels right — the Cubs are almost unbelievably risk averse when it comes to meeting the market on big, long-duration contracts, the kind that would be required to keep Tucker around for more than one year. Maybe it’s the tepid competitive landscape in their division that encourages this but if so, it ought to be the other way around. Given Chicago’s financial heft, it could do to the NL Central what the Dodgers have done to the rest of baseball. Still, the seats at Wrigley will be filled as usual, and those coming out might very well see a division winner on the field.
St. Louis Cardinals
Win average: 81.2 (Last: 80.4, 19th)
In the playoffs: 34.1% (Last: 35.3%)
Champions: 0.8% (Last 0.8%)
Expectation: Have you heard? The Cardinals planned to trade Nolan Arenado, whose on-going presence in St. Louis seems to loom high above the Arch like a great shadow since John Mozeliak won’t stop talking about the need to deal him. So we can suppose the Cardinals would trade Arenado and lean into a Chaim Bloom-led rebuild.Reality: Despite Mozeliak’s efforts to clean the plate for Bloom, his project has been undermined by the fact that even after a winter of subtraction, the Redbirds aren’t that bad. They are middling, where they’ve been for years. The unfortunate thing about the Cardinals’ sparing approach to the present is that such a strategy makes little sense in a division too rife with mediocrity to rule anyone out as a possible champion. A thought would be to keep Arenado and sign one or two of the remaining free agent pitchers, or even a middle-of-the-order DH type like J.D. Martinez. It wouldn’t take much to move the Cardinals closer to the Cubs and Brewers.
Milwaukee Brewers
Win average: 79.8 (Last: 81.6, 18th)
In the playoffs: 27.7% (Last: 40.9%)
Champions: 0.5% (Last 1.0%)
Expectation: At least from the outside, it seems as if a step back is the expectation. The Brewers’ over/under (82.5 wins) reflects that sense perfectly. At the same time, if you think a forecast is destiny for this organization, you haven’t been paying attention to the past nine years of National League baseball.Reality: There’s no doubt this is a less projection-friendly roster, one missing Willy Adames and Devin Williams from last year’s NL Central champs. But the Brewers, perhaps even more so than the Rays, have a proven amoebic tendency to recoalesce into a thriving organism even when a chunk of it is removed.
Since 2016, Milwaukee has outperformed its preseason over/unders by an average of six wins per season. That number has been 10.5 during the past two seasons, the first of Matt Arnold’s tenure leading the front office. Expect the Brewers to be in the thick of the NL Central race again.Cincinnati Reds
Win average: 75.8 (Last: 74.5, 24th)
In the playoffs: 14.5% (Last: 13.9%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last 0.1%)
Expectation: For better or worse, there’s little reason to expect anything but the same old, same old for the Reds. But that’s expectation and with some of the game’s most exciting young players, the Reds can at least pair that expectation with a good dose of hope.Reality: The Reds’ pitching staff has oodles of upside, particularly the rotation. Therein lies the hope that Cincinnati can rise to the top of a soft division. But the offense looks largely punchless, with run totals again likely to be inflated by Great American Ballpark.
Even if Elly De La Cruz goes into the beast mode he’s capable of and even if Matt McLain returns to health and becomes an All-Star-level producer, the Reds will need more. Nevertheless, this will be a team that is both fun to watch and a breakout candidate.
Pittsburgh Pirates
Win average: 73.2 (Last: 74.5, 24th)
In the playoffs: 8.9% (Last: 13.9%)
Champions: 0.1% (Last 0.2%)
Expectation: Great pitching. Lackluster hitting. Massive fan frustration.Reality: Why, Pirates, why? Paul-freaking-Skenes enters his first full MLB season with new pitches and the same old stuff, heading up a rotation that, a year from now, might be the best in the game. But such windows, when opened by a sudden outburst of pitching, are fleeting. With this staff, in this NL Central, and a throwback payroll outlook, this was the time to spend, spend, spend. But the Pirates, didn’t, didn’t, didn’t. Instead, they traded for Spencer Horwitz, who is already hurt. So it goes.
GameCard and Nigel going with the optimistic stance. Could happen. It is not out of the realm of possibility that Contreras and Arenado post 4 WAR years, and Gorman and Walker, not to mention Herrera, Nootbaar, and Donovan all make good to great strides. Then the pitching has to hold up. Again, could happen.
1. Cubs (88-74)
2. Pirates (80-82)
3. Reds (78-84)
4. Cardinals (76-86)
5. Brewers (75-87)Cubs pitching will keep them from being better, but still win the division.
Pirates will ride their pitching and have enough offense to stay close to .500 in a poor division.
Red pitching will struggle, offense and a good manager will keep them in games, but won’t be enough to get to .500.
Cardinals will be inconsistent and streaky, will hear conversations of “they did the right thing not selling off in the off-season and need to be buyers to win a weak division”, and won’t trade away any of their pending free agents trying to win the division. Then will hit an extended cold streak and fall to 4th in the division. (Maybe this is just my pessimism)
Brewers loss of Adames will mean more than they thought and with injuries are unable to meet expectations.
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