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If you would have asked me six weeks ago, I would have said Paul Goldschmidt will not only win the NL MVP award, but is a Cardinal player that deserves to receive the highest share of the vote since Albert Pujols, who incidentally is in 3rd place all-time behind only Bonds and Stan Musial in vote share leaders for the MVP award. But now, I’m not entirely sure. He really tapered off to what could be called an easy out for the last 5 weeks or so of the regular season after having a legitimate chance to achieve the extremely rare feat of a TC. He simply proved to be mortal, which certainly doesn’t hurt his chances, but I’m not entirely ready to discount a player from LA or NY possibly placing him in the position of a bridesmaid for the 3rd time in his career. If I weren’t a Cardinal fan, I’d certainly give consideration to Freddie Freeman who I believe is the best and most consistent pure hitter in either league. In any event, if Goldscmidt takes home the award, the Redbirds won’t gain any ground on the Yankees for most MVP’s awarded to a player for their respective ballclub. Those two teams are well ahead of the rest of the pack. The Cardinals are two short of the Yankees at 22 to 20. Judge will certainly make it 23, so the Redbirds can keep pace if Goldy wins the award.
Goldschmidt, Alonso, Machado, Arenado, Freeman – those are the top five candidates in the NL.
Judge is a lock in the AL.
Despite his slump near the end I still believe Goldschmidt takes the MVP award home.
r/Esteemed Rat
Rats…So do I, but I’ve seen stranger things happen. Howard over Pujols in ’06, McCutchen over Goldschmidt in ’13 and Rollins over Holliday in ’07. All players from the middle portion of the country beat out by players from the media loaded eastern portion of the country.
1982willie…I’d like to see Goldschmidt win the award, but it wouldn’t be a total travesty if Freeman snuck in there. I’ll also say he’s the only 1B’man in either league that I’d take over Goldschmidt. Freddie can flat out hit and he’s no slouch with the glovework either. If Goldy doesn’t get the award, I hope Freddie does.
Freeman?
Freeman had fewer homeruns.
Freeman had fewer rbi’s.
Freeman’s average was only .008 higher.Cannot see Freeman winning the NL MVP. And yes, I understand what really counts is his UZT and his BAPIF and his fWIN and his +WRD, etc, etc.
r/Esteemed Rat
Rats…Freeman has an outside chance. Goldschmidt had a better overall season in ’22, but Freddie’s the more consistent of the two and in my view, is the better hitter. Freddie don’t seem to slump.
Goldschmidt had a wide lead in OPS…also led both OBP and slugging. He hit plenty of homers, led a division winning team, and plays a well thought of first base.
By bWAR, Arenado just edged him. By fWAR, Machado and Arenado just edged him. But the numbers are very close and basically entirely the result of defensive positional adjustment.
If I had a vote it would be 1. Goldy 2. Arenado 3. Freeman 4. Machado 5. Alcantara
I expect Goldy probably wins and Freeman may slide up to second to split the Cardinals up.
stlcard25…I’d say I’m thinking along those same lines, but don’t you think someone from either the Braves or Mets finishes in the top five?
Good thoughts. I think stlcard25 has a great insight, and agree that Goldy likely takes home the hardware this year.
Read an article somewhere online about the slump Goldy went in to the last month or so of the season, and the concern it is. Apparently he was not hitting sliders at all, plus was swinging at a lot of bad pitches. That last part was something we all saw. His plate discipline disappeared.
That article concludes he will likely tail off next season due to age obviously, but there was some concern he could have a major drop in production. In the end they felt he would be around where he was in 2019 as far as his numbers.
BikeMike… At 35, I don’t forsee a major drop in production, but with the season he had in ’22, I certainly expect ’23 to taper off. He actually has featured 3 seasons in his career that could be called as good or better than the one he featured in ’22. Those would be ’13, ’15 and ’17. However he was 25, 27 and 29 years of age, so this may well be his last and best chance to be voted an MVP award. I’ll also add that I don’t what the voters were thinking when McCutchen beat him out in ’13.
I think I read that August 26th was when the worm turned for Goldschmidt.
Reminds me of Carpenter’s 2018 – 36 HRs and plenty of salsa but a late season swoon and he stank up the joint for 3 years after that.
I hope that scenario is not in store for Goldschmidt…
I think Goldy still wins the MVP as long as the award is based on the full six months. It is probably better to slump in April than September but the overall numbers are still there.
Some folks have been writing him off ever since he got here and he keeps proving them wrong. Let’s hope that continues.
Freeman hit a homerun in his first playoff game, goldy looked like he shouldnt be hitting in a little league game. I know supposedly playoffs don’t count but I count em. What you do in the biggest moments should always count.goldy wasn’t that good in those moments during regular season also. Maybe he doesn’t perform well under pressure
There were stretches during the season where Goldy looked like Albert Pujols circa 2004. He was a machine. He is a streaky hitter but the overall numbers are there.
gscottar…That was my impression. For what seemed like about 12 to 15 weeks he not only punished every solitary mistake, but was also ripping quality pitches ala Albert Pujols. I always thought of him as somewhat streaky, but during the first 5 months of this past season he never once seemed to miss a beat. Then, at the worst possible time, he looked entirley lost in the box. Always behind in the count, swinging through mistakes, chasing the bait, and entirely fooled on quality offerings. Dang shame.
“Edman ranked 3rd in defensive WAR in the major leagues this season. All positions included”
This…he certainly is a GG SS in 2022.Dansby Swanson is the almost certain Gold Glove shortstop this year. Edman will win the utility player award.
If you check Goldy’s history, he had one dreadful month almost every season. But it hadn’t usually been September.
While he’s been a Cardinal, it seems like Goldschmidt normally scuffled a little at different points during the first half of the season. I can’t recall him ever suffering through extended droughts during the months of August and September.
Although it does not necessarily make sense every year, but usually the MVP goes to a guy on a winning club. The old adage of “how valuable could he have been?” when a guy has a great season for a losing team comes in to play at times.
In 1964 the word was that Johnny Callison was the MVP that year, until the infamous “Phillie Phlop”, when the Cardinals surged and Ken Boyer won the award. Everything fell apart for the Phillies those last two weeks, and Callison contracted a bad cold or flu. He kept playing despite the illness.
On the other hand, that same season most historians will say Mickey Mantle was the “real” American League MVP for the pennant winning Yankees, but Brooks Robinson got the hardware. So who knows.
A little different these days with multiple post season teams, but a good case can be made for Goldy and Freeman. Goldy was the man as of September 1. He probably still is the man, but that last month was brutal.
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