- This topic has 22 replies, 14 voices, and was last updated 2 years, 10 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Want to know why we are going through this dismal season?
Mo and/or his team of execs and scouts have done a poor job on every front of providing winning players for the Cardinals since November of 2017.
Using net WAR as provided by Baseball Encyclopedia following is the gain vs loss data for trades, free agents and waivers, Mos comes up short in every category.
Trades: 14.3 gain vs 41.9 loss
F Agents: 52.5 gain vs 105 loss
Waivers: 7.1 gain vs 13.3 loss. Note: Most of the gain is for Ramon Urias picked up by the Cardinals but subsequently lost on Waivers to Baltimore. He never reached the Cardinals prior to his loss.The Cardinals had a surpluss of outfielders but Mo lost four of them and only Nootbar has performed near the level of those lost to the team.
The Cardinals gave up 40+ WAR (primarily Alcantara and Gallen) for Marcel Ozuna whose offensive performance with the Cardinals was so-so and his defense was poor.
Mo consistently gives up too soon on some of the best players and keeps less talented players until they have little or no trade value. Think what Carlson and O’Neill or even DeJong would have brought in trades at earlier points in their careers.
He deserves some credit on the trading front with the pick up of Goldschmidt and Aranado. Also the trading deadline deals in 2021 and 2022 that helped the team down the stretch. And it seems that he picked up 3 top ten prospects at the 2023 deadline.
The free agent market will always be tough for the Cardinals vs the big market teams.But I think a Whitey Herzog would have faired far better as he seemed to be gifted with the ability to identify winning players.
I don’t see a future for this team with these individuals in charge.Their poor performance in acquiring talent isn’t likely to change and ownership seems happy to continue with them.
I am worried we are heading towards a stretch where we will be like the Pirates and the Reds for the last several years.
We might be heading for a bad few years of baseball in St. Louis.
r/Esteemed Rat
I’m not quite sure I understand the logic of how this is put together, but I’m skeptical about the way we are calculating here.
For instance, do the Cards only get credit for Goldy and Arenado during the first year of their trade? And if that’s the case, then they shouldn’t be losing credit for each year after Gallen or Arozarena’s trade. I’m also curious about the waivers that were lost. Is that counting guys like Patrick Wisdom or I assume Adolis Garcia? And if so, how many years do you keep counting them? I’d just like to understand the data better.
All the pointless lineup shuffling going on game to game strikes me as more of a dismasted and rudderless ship drifting around than any sort of excersize for any real purpose.
If anybody is going to get fired after the season, FO or uniformed staff, we will probably know in a month or less. Not more. The last game is Oct.1. When Schildt was fired, the org didn’t wait until after the WS or anything like that. He was fired on Oct. 14, which was 8 days after the WC loss that ended our season. In that case, the story is Mo had not been intending to fire Schildt, but something happened after the season, or right at the end, that rubbed Mo the wrong way in a big way. I don’t think there will be anything like that this time. Any such decisions are already made, by Mo or above his pay grade. So it will be quick or not at all.
Everything is up to date. For example, the WAR accumulated by Goldy is 22.0 since his acquisition by the Cardinals. For players who have been acquired and subsequently moved on the WAR achieved with their new teams are added as a plus to Cardinal acquisitions. For example The accumulated WAR for Ozuna is 8.4, 4.3 with the Cardinals and 4.1 with the Braves. The entire 8.4 is in the positive trade calculations for the Cardinals.
Sooner, great post! I too fear a long time at the bottom! I do not believe we will contend again with either Marmol or Mo as part of this organization! The numbers don’t lie! One bad decision after another has crippled this franchise and we need change! I glanced the other day at how the first round draft picks or doing so far this year and while many like Jackson Holiday are professing through the minors as hoped our #1 is floundering at the lowest levels! This doesn’t mean he won’t be a player at some point but given what we have seen lately it does leave a bad feeling!
We do have a young and potentially potent lineup.
Next year many of our young guys will still be ‘in the oven’ – they will be better – but next year will still be a growth year for Walker, Winn, Gorman, Donovan, and even Nootbar, etc.
The lineup is rounding into a core group that could be ready good for years.
The pitching staff is a complete disaster from top to bottom. I think it takes more than one off season to fix.
If I could sit down with Mo, I’d tell him to trade both Arenado and Goldschmidt this winter for an epic haul of players and prospects.
Yeah, it would probably sting next season but in 2025 you could have a young, sustainable, World Series contending team.
Sooner – can you give me the website you’re referencing from? I’m not sure what Baseball Encyclopedia is since the last version of it appears to have been published in 1996.
I’d like to look at the data and understand it better.
If anybody is going to get fired after the season, FO or uniformed staff, we will probably know in a month or less. Not more. The last game is Oct.1. When Schildt was fired, the org didn’t wait until after the WS or anything like that. He was fired on Oct. 14, which was 8 days after the WC loss that ended our season. In that case, the story is Mo had not been intending to fire Schildt, but something happened after the season, or right at the end, that rubbed Mo the wrong way in a big way. I don’t think there will be anything like that this time. Any such decisions are already made, by Mo or above his pay grade. So it will be quick or not at all.
I agree with that. There won’t be any last minute philosophical differences this time. Mo probably already knows if Marmol will return in 2024 or not.
Mo probably already knows if Marmol will return in 2024 or not.
Agreed, but I wonder how sure Mo is that Mo will return in 2024. BDW will have made his decision on that by the final game, if not already. I don’t have any feeling about how it will go. A lot has happened since Mo got his extension, none of it good.
You point out that they don’t eat player contracts but you think they would eat the PBO’s contract and tear up the org?
Last time we had this very discussion you admitted it isn’t likely… Yet you keep bringing it up as if it is.
I would say there is less than a 5% chance Mo is out of the organization after this year. There might be a slightly higher chance that he is out as PBO but stays in the organization as an “advisor” but that is more likely to happen after 2024. I think his contract runs through 2025.
Yeah, I do not see Mo or Ollie going anywhere right now. I am betting both are with the Cardinal organization thru the duration of Mo’s contract. Marmol will be evaluated for retention once Mo leaves.
I had hoped that DeWitt would come to his senses like Gussie did. Let Mo go at mid-season, hire another PBO and start the rebuild with an in-depth review of the organization during the second half of the season. Failure to do so tells me ownership is comfortable with Mo having the capability of righting the ship … despite the track record cited above.
The Front Office must reconstruct the pitching staff and avoid making anymore disastrous trades. I see the task at hand as challenging … even for a Front Office that has a good track record. As such, I hope for the best, but …
Last time we had this very discussion you admitted it isn’t likely… Yet you keep bringing it up as if it is.
Correct, I do not think it is likely. I assume you did not think it likely Shildt would get fired, but he did. As I said before, and above, a lot has happened since the extension, and none of it good. To me, that makes Mo getting Shildted plausible. I would not be surprised.
. To me, that makes Mo getting Shildted plausible. I would not be surprised.
Not apples to apples. Mo’s made BDW a boatload of cheese by winning year after year and filling the seats. I realize Mo is probably the least popular guy in the org with fans right now. I don’t think he’s the guy to lead us into a rebuild and create a new model. But he made his bones and Bill is going to give him these next 2 years. Schildt way overestimated his value and his ego got him fired. He was a second year manager that butted heads with the boss. Not all that bright.
Agreed, KCB. Shildt is apples against oranges unless there is some evidence that DeWitt has become so dissatisfied with Mo that he would fire him just months after extending him. There is none, just hope on the part of many fans.
Since we all seem to agree it is unlikely, the only disagreement is how low the odds are. gscottar’s under 5% seems reasonably generous.
The only good news is that this topic isn’t going to drag on indefinitely like another similarly low odds subject that won’t die, trading Arenado. (Unless you hold out for the slim chance Mo would be fired. In that case, anything could be possible.)
Brian even though Goldy and Arenado are not on my wouldn’t trade list, I fully understand why there’s as much chance of it as there is Mo getting fired. I confidently put it at zero. As you say, there’s no sense continuing to beat that horse.
This FO and Mgmt staff are Very Bad. I hope they do a complete re-structure and move several of the younger players, so they don’t have to suffer through anymore of this terrible staffs decisions.
I would like to see all these guys go to another organization and be given a shot at competing for wins and a series! Gorman, Carlson, Helsley, Thompson, Nootbar, Woodford, Burleson, Kizner, Baker, Edman, Wynn and Walker.
All the rest..whatever…!
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.