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.246 (24.6%) and .316 (31.6%)
So, we have a lot of guys at or below the ML averages but how big of a deal is it really?
The win / loss record says it is but if a guy is hitting .225 (22.5%) does 2 more hits per 100 at bats really matter all that much? If you figure 450 to 500 at bats for a full season can a total of 9 or 10 hits over an entire season really make THAT much of a difference?
A .300 (30%) hitter gets literally worshipped and a .250 (25%) hitter is considered pedestrian. Over 500 at bats the .300 hitter accumulates 25 more hits. (5 more hits every 100 at bats)
The Milwaukee Brewers as a team are hitting .259 with a .333 OBP while the Cardinals are almost exactly league average at .247 ba and .316 obp.
The Brewers have a total of 1227 hits to the Cardinals 1154 so – as a group – over the entire course of the season the Brewers have 73 more hits. Over the 139 games played to date the Brewers get 0.53 more hits per game than the Cards
.250 to .300, or 25 hits out of 500 ABs (30 hits out of 600) does not sound like a huge difference maker, but it is. Where it really makes an impact is getting two or three players to hit about 50 points higher.
One guy that comes to mind that might give us some insight is Dick Groat in his 1960 and 1961 seasons. Groat hit .325 in ’60, leading the league, and .275 in ’61. His appearances were comparable, with 19 less ABs in ’60, and 22 more hits that year than the following year. He walked almost exactly the same amount of time, 39 and 40.
The extra hits jumped his OBP up 51 points, .371 to .320. He actually slugged better in ’61 when you look at the raw numbers, with 2 more triples and 4 more homers than in ’60. Doubles were essentially the same at 26 and 25. Despite the extra base hit improvement, his slugging percentage dropped from .394 to .367.
In terms of latter day stats, his OPS+ went from 116 in ’60, 83 in ’61. And if assume his defense was about even each year, his WAR went from 6.1 to 2.0.
Based on this albeit limited analysis, it seems that those extra 25 hits or so really ramp up a player’s value, and impact on his team’s success. Those extra hits have a synergistic impact on slugging and on base percentage. And from that we can figure that they do the same in games. That is 25 less outs, and 25 more times an inning is continued. It gives the next guy a shot, and then maybe the following guy gets an AB and things start to snowball. Not every time obviously, but enough that it makes a difference.
There is a lot that plays into the W-L record for sure. Pitching / runs allowed, etc.
As far as the .300 vs .250 hitter you are correct in that we need 3-4 guys getting the 5 extra hits per hundred at bats – then it sure will add up – PLUS what about ‘productive outs’?
As in moving the runner(s) up a base or making sure you get the guy on third with less than one out across the plate for that run….
A lot of little things add up to a big thing in the w/L columns.
I’m in total agreement with the concept of adding up to a big thing in the W/L column. At the end of the day all the countless and complicated analytical offensive stats in the world are meaningless when set side by side against the only basic and simple stat that really counts. The net bottom line in the game of baseball is that runs scored supercedes everything else. When the good guys score more runs than the bad guys, the good guys will win every time…Period.
“The net bottom line in the game of baseball is that runs scored supercedes everything else.”
Yep, I agree 1TD. Some people discount RBIs as it is dependent on opportunities, and some guys get more than others. But still, if you deliver the runs that is huge.
I ran a stat one time on a database of players where I built a formula that was runs plus rbi minus home runs, and divided that by total plate appearances. I thought that was one of the best ways to analyze hitters on offense. That spreadsheet was several computers ago and I don’t think I have it anymore, but all of the usual great players were in the top 50 or so. I remember one guy up pretty high was a guy Bill James always says is one of the most overrated players in history, George Sisler. I always disagreed with James as Sisler was fabulous when healthy. Unfortunately he had eye problem during his prime and missed a full season, then was not the same after that.
But anyway, you gotta score runs, and keep the opposition from scoring. Pretty simple.
And obviously the arms come into play, but a 1-0 win counts for the same in the standings as an 11-10 win…And, as the Ol’ Perfessor always said, “And vice versa”…Haha!
I think I saw Wainwright post on twitter to dgoold that of the top 10 teams in BA, 8 are playoff teams. I would like to see the average BA/OBP of those teams, as that is what we are striving for.
I ran a stat one time on a database of players where I built a formula that was runs plus rbi minus home runs, and divided that by total plate appearances. I thought that was one of the best ways to analyze hitters on offense. That spreadsheet was several computers ago and I don’t think I have it anymore, but all of the usual great players were in the top 50 or so. I remember one guy up pretty high was a guy Bill James always says is one of the most overrated players in history, George Sisler. I always disagreed with James as Sisler was fabulous when healthy. Unfortunately he had eye problem during his prime and missed a full season, then was not the same after that.
Mike, one of my favorite batting lines was from Tommy Herr in 1985.
.302 BA, 8 HR, 110 RBI.
He hit third behind Vince Coleman and Willie McGee and right in front of Jack Clark. You couldn’t have asked for a better place to hit, sandwiched between speed and power. Whitey knew what he was doing.
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