Minor league thread – Mon 9/2

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  • #104769
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Memphis at Iowa, 12:08 pm CT, Chris Ellis (5-5, 6.87)
    Springfield vs. Midland, 12:15 pm CT, Johan Oviedo (7-7, 5.30)
    Peoria at Clinton, 2:00 pm CT, Parker Kelly (3-5, 3.97)
    State College at Williamsport, 1:05 pm ET, Junior Gonzalez (3-6, 7.13)
    Johnson City vs. Burlington, 6:30 p.m. ET, Julio Puello

    #104780
    AvatarDerek Shore
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    #104781
    AvatarDerek Shore
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    #104907
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    #104910
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    Carlson ended up with 26 HR, 20 SB, 62 XBH, a .372 OBP, .542 SLG% and .914 OPS as a 20 year old over AA and AAA. He was also was voted as the best defensive OF in AA, which could have had to do with the bat, but regardless, he will still likely be a solid defensive corner OF. What a great season!

    #104926
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    Carlson has only one hurdle left to conquer. Would like to see him hit against MLB pitching late in spring training.

    #104931
    Avatar858booyah
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    My guess is they’ll give more than enough exposure in ST next season.

    He’s going to the AFL this year isn’t he?

    #104932
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    Booyah, yes he is. For the prospect rankings this offseason, it is going to be a toss up to the 1A and 1B prospects in the system.

    #104953
    AvatarBob Reed
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    “Booyah, yes he is. For the prospect rankings this offseason, it is going to be a toss up to the 1A and 1B prospects in the system.”

    A toss-up indeed, ChiTown. And I have to sheepishly side with the mainstream prospect pundits and still prefer Gorman to Carlson, by a slender margin. (For me Gorman goes in the 12-15 range, Carlson 15-20.)

    Nolan’s my choice for two reasons. First, based on available public metrics and the eye test, Gorman in the long run may be a well above average MLB gloveman at third base, and thus significantly more valuable defensively than corner outfielder Carlson. And two, Gorman may be — just may be — much further along as a batter than it appears at first glance; and he already looks pretty good, with a 128 wRC+ in Low-A and 117 in High-A during his tender age 18/19 season. But why might he be much better than those numbers imply?

    Here’s the thing. Sometimes very young minor league hitters quite understandably have some trouble maintaining their concentration in low leverage situations. (In my experience, this is a weakness they almost invariably outgrow over time.) And Nolan Gorman’s 2019 season, across both Peoria and Palm Beach, may be a prime example of this phenomenon. Combining the two levels he hit a dismal .192/.280/.341 with the bases empty this year (286 plate appearances). But with anybody on base Gorman absolutely crushed the ball to the tune of .318/.385/.562 (226 PA’s).

    Those sample sizes are sufficient to be at least somewhat meaningful, especially given the massive performance gulf of over 300 OPS points between the two. And in my opinion IF those men-on-base numbers are his true current ability, Nolan’s the #2 prospect in all of baseball, and not all that far behind Wander Franco.

    #104978
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    Which “mainstream prospect pundits”?

    BA has Carlson ahead of Gorman, 17-39.

    MLB (which is a shakier list overall, IMO), still has Gorman ahead 28-49. So their gaps are about the same – with the names reversed.

    I am not aware of other lists that have been updated since last off-season, which is in effect, are a year old now.

    #105000
    AvatarBob Reed
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    Which “mainstream prospect pundits”?
    I am not aware of other lists that have been updated since last off-season, which is in effect, are a year old now.

    That’s a fair question, Brian.
    Baseball Prospectus had their most recent updated list in July. They rated Gorman 14th and Carlson 38th.

    The Fangraphs Big Board (apologies to Dr. Strangelove) has been updated more or less continually over the past few months, and just in the last two weeks they suddenly moved Dylan Carlson from the stubborn, inexplicable, idiotic, and corrupt obscurity of a barely-top-100 ranking allllll the way to #42. But that’s still behind Nolan Gorman, at #34.

    And I think that periodically Keith Law has at least obliquely alluded to their current rankings in his chats, and rates Gorman the better prospect. Or he did as of a few weeks back, I’m fairly certain. But that’s partly my piecing together the rankings puzzle on my own.

    So that’s the stuff upon which my remark was founded. In any case I’m off for vacation, so no more know-it-all banter from me for awhile. (You’re welcome.)

    #105007
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Here’s a couple of fun stats…Carlson had a grand total of 6 plate appearances against pitchers younger than him this year. Gorman had 0. I know which way I lean on the 1A/1B debate, but I’m excited to see the prospect voting get going here soon.

    #105008
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    So that’s the stuff upon which my remark was founded. In any case I’m off for vacation, so no more know-it-all banter from me for awhile. (You’re welcome.)

    You mean you’re skipping the Cards’ soon-to-be epic playoff run? Say it ain’t so, Bob!

    #105049
    AvatarCardsFanInChiTown
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    `

    #105050
    AvatarPugsleyAddams
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    Say if ain’t so, Bob!

    Yeah, I too have noticed Bobby’s Cardinal love diminishing somewhat lately. It may not be a bad time to really start diving into our entire farm system, so to know more about our young Birds than Bobby. Wouldn’t that be sweet! I figure a good 35-40 years of Bobby being totally inactive, coupled with me living and breathing nothing but Cardinal baseball and I’ll have him….may God be my judge I’ll have him!

    Put me down for CC (that’s “Camp Carlson” to the layman). I think he’ll prove to be the better MLer between the two…..and it won’t even by that close.

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