- This topic has 28 replies, 16 voices, and was last updated 9 months, 3 weeks ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Since the Cardinals are evidently going to the Tampa Bay Model, you only need to look at WAR over the first six years of control.
LA, if your Edmunds comment is toward Sooner, I am pretty sure he meant Edman.
Also, there has been nothing saying they are going to the Tampa Bay method. They are going to at least go back to developing players in the minors. Ignoring the minors hasn’t worked.
All-
I was wrong about the Cards’ draft odds. I assumed that they would take the 8th spot in the odds as listed by the Tankathon site. Instead, they have the 11th spot. It’s just that three teams in front of them (the Rockies, Nats, and Angels) are ineligible. The “ping pong balls” for those three teams are then distributed to the other teams. So the Cards’ would have had a 1.4% chance of the top pick, but with the three teams being ineligible for the lottery, their chances rise to 2.35%. I don’t have the bandwidth to run the simulations for this system. The 11th pick would have a 15.5% chance of getting one of the 6 lottery picks. The Cards’ chances will be higher than that, but I don’t know how high. The increase from a 1.4% chance to a 2.35% chance is about a 68% increase. A 68% increase from 15.5% gets us to about a 26% chance. So…IF that’s a good back of envelope estimate of the odds, there’s probably about a 26% chance of the Cards getting one of the 6 lottery picks. I’d estimated 32% before.
The good news is that the other teams behind us in the lottery (Marlins, Dbacks, Rangers, Giants, Royals, Mets, and Astros) will also have odds a bit lower than I had estimated. If one of them wins a lottery pick and we don’t, we slide to the 9th spot. If two of them win lottery picks and we don’t, we slide to 13th. Per Tankathon, the 11th place team had about a 32.7% chance of sliding at least two spots. I’d think that number would rise a bit.
If someone wants to number crunch, both MLB and Baseball America have posted the odds. BA has posted what the odds would have been if those three teams were eligible as well as what they are now. And it’s not behind a paywall!
I apologize for being incorrect in the numbers I posted above.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.