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Well done, Luken. Two MVPs in the minors… hopefully it will result in some improvement to the big league club soon enough..
He just about looked lost at the plate to me during his time in St. Louis. Is big league pitching that much better than AAA pitching???
Thats true blingboy. I had high hopes for both of them. But I guess big league pitching must be a lot better than AAA pitching. Not sure how else to view their lack of results. Perhaps Winn falls into that same category.
Winn and the other two guys aren’t anywhere close to the same category. Winn is going to be a player in this league as long as his glove and arm hold up. I’m betting his bat skill developes. Those other two guys have 1 tool and so far it’s not impressive enough to keep them around.
Just to weigh in, I do believe Baker will be a solid starting 1B/DH for someone for at least a few seasons. Yes, major league pitching is much tougher. But Baker takes a lot of good at bats, walks a bunch, and has more power than anyone in our whole system. You could see him taking better at bats at the end of the season when he was finally getting more regular playing time.
There are some good pitchers in AAA but many who are not going to make it in MLB, or even to MLB. Starters and relievers both. Hitters breaking in have to have another notch left to adjust up to, and some just don’t. In baseball you never know what will happen until it does or doesn’t.
“Who thinks Luken plays everyday in the bigs?”
I’d say he has a 20-25% chance to be another Luke Voit. (In other words, if someone offered me 2-1 or 5-2 odds there’s NO WAY I’d take it. But at 6-1 or 7-1, then sure.) Maybe a 35-40% chance to be another Matt Adams. Most likely though, he never plays 100 games for anybody.
It’s just not that rare for guys in the minors to have a huge year when they’re three or four years old for their level of competition. Baker’s a good bat, but I don’t think he’s the rare kinda hitting talent who can be an above-average MLB batsman. And as everyone here knows, with his glove/baserunning limitations, he has to really really hit to have any value at all.
“Baker and Burleson both raked in AAA.”
True enough, but Burly was 23 and Baker 26. It’s almost impossible to overstate how important that difference is, when projecting future MLB careers. (And Winn was just 21 of course, so we just don’t know how good a hitter he can be. But he was very good in AAA after his first 50 or 60 ABs.)
Bob, I agree with your assessment. I think Voit is an upper level possibility where he takes off and is great for 3 seasons – 25% odds seems fair. It could definitely happen but I also wouldn’t bet on it. Voit had better bat to ball skills. I’m just betting that Luken is MLB average for 2-4 seasons with maybe one of those seasons being on the plus side of average. But after about age 31 or 32, Luken’s size is likely to really limit his abilities unless he learns to hit like John Kruk and there’s no indication right bow that this will happen.
Nice hardware for Mr. Baker. Usually guys hit their prime at age 26,27,28, right in there. So as Bob and others have said, he does not project to be a long term star at the big league level. He could be pretty good for the next couple of years or so, maybe four or five if given a chance to adjust to the top level pitching.
But not bringing other skills than hitting to the table, he probably won’t be much use to many clubs unless they need a power hitting DH for a couple years. And that could certainly happen. He would be a great DH out here for the Rox.
I hadn’t realized that Baker was seen as inadequate as a 1B fielder. Mostly they aren’t gold glovers.
A lot rides on whether they extend Goldy. If they don’t, I’m picturing Contreras at first, assuming Herrera progresses.
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