- This topic has 43 replies, 17 voices, and was last updated 1 year, 9 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Bob, IMO that is a 70 win team, at best. That is tanking. You are getting rid of your best, proven starting pitcher and keeping the worst. I am not totally against trading Contreras and Arenado if you can get rid of almost all of their salaries.
When are y’all expecting to compete again? 2026? 2027? Why wouldn’t we keep Arenado and Contreras, who are still productive and under contract in 2027?
The salaries don’t mean anything to me (because you aren’t reinvesting anyway) and the ‘prospect return’ would be minimal.
Also they aren’t blocking anyone imo.
Arenados 3.1 fWAR btw, was 10th in baseball among 3B. I wouldn’t call that easily replaceable. Contreras 2.6 was 11th even in limited time.
IMO, the bigger question not being discussed here is if the team’s best players want to remain Cardinals during this “reset”. Of course, we don’t know the answer, but the human side of the equation will be an important factor in the team’s actions this off-season.
BTV isn’t the be all end all but in terms of value:
Helsley: 15.1
Gray: -9.0
Arenado: -26.2
Contreras: -27.0jj: Wow! Those save numbers jump out and slap one in the head. If they do trade Helsley and they may not have a choice, they will surely finish last next year.
The perfect time to trade Helsley was at the trade deadline. They would have gotten a kings ransom in terms of prospects but it just goes to show how incompetent and out of touch this FO is. By all accounts the team was outperforming their metrics and the FO ignored these facts when they made the dumb trades they did at the deadline.
Some good points all around. My concern on Helsley is he has had some injury issues in the past. His value is sky high right now. It could be as high or higher in July 2025, but there is a risk. Right now he has what I think of as a risk free value. If we can get an impressive haul for him I would go for it. If not, roll the dice and hope he can keep it going in 2025.
Helsley’s shown he can be real good, so obviously I’d like to see him stay around. But he’s not irreplacable. If he goes, the Cardinals will simply run a selection of arms out there until they come up with a closer who’s reasonably effective. They’ve had a laundry list of names as the 9th inning guy over the last 10 or 12 years, so it shouldn’t be too difficult to add another name to the list who they view to be able to do the job.
Well, I’d say so too, BW. He ended the season as the league saves leader, so I don’t at all see how his value could be lower than at the deadline
Helsley’s contract and the year he had makes him quite valuable and he could bring some real value back.
Just looking at some #’s Goldschmidt made $26 million in 2024, Gibson $12 million and Lynn $10 million….just those 3 is a savings of $48 million by not resigning them. I believe gray makes $10 million more in 2025 and there will be some other increases and decreases.
Contreras gets $18 million next year so that would be more savings but they will have to pay him something to waive his no trade clause probably.
Are they really planning to put $40 million into player development and go with $135 mill payroll…
The one good thing they have some reasonable contracts on Arenado and Contreras so they wouldn’t be hard to trade if they pass a physical (pretty sure Arenado wasn’t healthy most of the year)…Gray may be a little tougher with the backloaded contract.
The bad is they have sunk costs in Mikolas and Matz at about $30 million combined.
If you can get a good prospect or two for helsley, i say go for it. As is i dont see this team competing especially if they get rid of gray. I dont really otherwise but im trying to be nice. The thing about closers is they can lose it as fast as they got it. But teams tend to trust closers enough to give up real good pieces. At the deadline maybe, but now, not so sure.
I don’t think Helsley’s value is lower now either, but I think the point some are making is that teams in certain situations might pay a premium at the deadline for the perfectly fitting puzzle piece they’re missing.
Anyway, I think I like keeping Helsley along the lines of having your cake and eating it too. If the team improves next year, you’ve got a top closer all contenders need. If the team craters, you can still trade him at the deadline next year. Nothing’s ever a slam dunk is it? There’s risk with every decision, e.g., injury, meshing needs with a compatible trade partner, etc.
We are pretty much beating this up ad nauseum, but Helsley’s value is never going to be all that much higher than it is now. And it will definitely be a lot lower at some point. It certainly could be higher at the 2025 trade deadline if he can repeat this season’s production over the first half of next year.
But pitching at that level is likely not sustainable for too much longer. A power pitcher like Ryan is going to break down at some point. Although I will hedge that comment some and say I was impressed with the off speed arsenal he has added to his pitch options. He had appearances where he did not throw the fastball all that much.
We will see how this goes. Personally I would seriously listen to offers to sell high on him now, knowing he could be more valuable later on. But still I think the risk is significant of a let down as soon as next year.
After this postseason, there will be buyers. Helsley could be viewed as an “over the top” acquisition, for contenders.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.