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We need a fresh topic to discuss, so I am going to steal some thunder from MLB Trade Rumors. The other day, they started a series predicting which players teams would protect if MLB had an expansion draft. They haven’t got to the Cardinals yet, so let’s try it here first.
Expansion is not a crazy idea, as not long ago I heard a rumor that MLB would like the influx of “free money” that would come with two team’s expansion fees. 16 teams per league would help scheduling too and allow Manfred to add divisions and create more playoff teams. Haven’t heard more, but the expansion protection seems like a fun exercise.
Here are the ground rules:
https://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2020/05/blue-jays-expansion-draft.html
The simplified version of the rules for their exercise is to keep 15 players, all of whom must have MLB experience (with one exception). They exclude free agents this coming fall (like Molina and Wainwright) and also exclude players with team options for next year (like Wong and Andrew Miller). For prospects, anyone on BA’s top 100 with a 2020 ETA has to included in the 15, but no other prospects are eligible. That means Carlson has to be among everyone’s 15.
So, let’s see your lists!
P.S. It might also be interesting to list your “locks” as well as those who were on the edge and those you wanted to keep but had to leave off.
Locks, in order:
Jack Flaherty
Paul Dejong
Dylan Carlson
Carlos Martinez
Dakota Hudson
KK Kim
Tommy Edman (if we aren’t allowed to lock down Wong)
Jordan Hicks
Giovanny Gallegos
Harrison Bader
Tyler O’Neill
Genesis Cabrera
Ryan Helsley
Junior Fernandez
Miles MikolasJust off the bubble: Ponce, Goldy, Thomas, Brebbia, Gant
Really my top 14 are no basically no brainers unless you are completely fed up with Cmart or think he’s hurt. Mikolas would be a tempting one to dangle because he’s a risk at 30+ to decline and become a liability with his mid level contract. I love Goldy but he’s got a huge salary and probably not likely to be taken due to that and possible age related decline.
I would have put Wong in the top 5 if he was eligible; you don’t want to lose a guy like that as he probably won’t be that expensive to resign even if he has a good 2020 and 21 due to his age by then.
A couple of guys who didn’t make my cut: Alex Reyes, who would be a huge risk for an organization to take on but maybe they’d take a flier; Andrew Knizner has too little MLB experience to really be that attractive I’d think. If it were a Carson Kelly type we needed to protect, he’d make my list.
In no particular oder:
Goldschmidt
DeJong
Flaherty
Hudson
Hicks
Edman
Kim
Mikolas
Helsley
Gallegos
Ponce
Carlson
Knizer
Gorman (assuming he is in BA top 100)
Liberatore (assuming he is in BA top 100)Left unprotected: CMart, Carp, Fowler, Bader, O’Neill, Thomas, Brebbia, Reyes, Cabrera, Fernandez, Gomber
Sadly the only OF I protected was Carlson. That says a lot about our OF.
Liberatore and Gorman are BA’s top 100, but their debut date is not 2020. Therefore under the rules, they should not take up a spot.
Left unprotected: CMart, Carp, Fowler, Bader, O’Neill, Thomas, Brebbia, Reyes, Cabrera, Fernandez, Gomber
Since the two prospects didn’t need to be protected, I wonder which two of these you’d protect? That’s a ton of talent, with Cmart a possible candidate for #1 pick for a team, and at least two of the OF and Cabrera and Fernandez possible pickups.
If I were to add two players back it would be between CMart, Bader, and Reyes.
CMart still has talent. I just wonder if the Cards might be tempted to do away with his contract.
Bader should probably be protected because of his defense.
I include Reyes as a possibility because it would be the Cardinals luck to see him go elsewhere and finally flourish. I am not sure if I would be ready to give up on him yet.That was my worry about Reyes too. I believe there’s a limit on how many players a team can lose, and IIRC teams could choose more guys to protect every few rounds. It would be interesting to see how it was handled.
In previous expansion drafts, has there been draft pick (or other) compensation for the team that loses a player (beyond the $ from the expansion fee)?
I am not aware of compensation, but in the earlier expansion drafts, the established teams got to protect three more players after each round. The draft ended when the new teams had selected 35 players.
The penalties of the last draft were as fair as they could be, it seems to me. By design, all teams lost at least two players, but no more than three. Unless I don’t understand it…..
One other thing. Players with no trade protection had to be included on the list of 15. So don’t Fowler, Carp, Goldy, and any others need to be on all lists?
* Dylan Carlson
** Paul Goldschmidt
** Miles Mikolas
** Matt Carpenter
** Dexter Fowler
Jack Flaherty
Dakota Hudson
Paul DeJong
Tommy Edman
Ryan Helsley
Carlos Martinez
Kwang-hyun Kim
Jordan Hicks
Austin Gomber
Harrison BaderTo steal NCAA bracketology phraseology, Bader is my last one in. Knizner and Gallegos are my last two out.
* Must include as a top prospect
** Must include due to trade protection (no one has commented on this yet. If I’m wrong, I’ll make changes. If I’m right, others might want to modify their lists)Yes, according to the MLBTR rules, those with no-trade protection must be included in your 15.
Fowler
Carpenter
MikolasCots does not show Goldy has an NTC.
https://legacy.baseballprospectus.com/compensation/cots/national-league-central/st-louis-cardinals/
A Rosenthal tweet before the deal was official said an NTC was expected, but I did not see it confirmed after.
MLB Trade Rumors got to the Cardinals in their series.
Which of these #STLCards would you keep? https://t.co/mpPVXU213q pic.twitter.com/LSMC7R3I6M
— MLB Trade Rumors (@mlbtraderumors) May 28, 2020
Carlson (prospect)
Mikolas (NTC)
Carpenter (NTC)Locks:
DeJong
Edman
Flaherty
Hudson
Helsley
Hicks
Knizner
C. Martinez
Wong (exercise option)On the Bubble:
Goldschmidt (salary)
O’Neill
BaderRelease:
Fowler (just to save the roster spot for someone else)Just Missed:
Gallegos
Brebbia
Fernandez
CabreraThis was harder than I thought it would be. I really wish that Mikolas didn’t have a NTC. I would have left him exposed. The same with Carpenter. Bader just barely makes it on.
All I know is we got a lot of pitching teams would seriously look at. Especially if Martinez was left unprotected.
Adding on to booyah, I don’t see how you wouldn’t protect Gomber over multiple guys that have been mentioned. The good news is I don’t see this happening in the upcoming offseason so Fowler and Carp won’t be issues anymore.
In Spring Training 1.0, CMart seemed like the SP of a few years ago, if the Cards believe that to be true and that he’s straightened up his off field life, there is no way you don’t protect him.
If expansion were to happen, Mikolas would instantly become a trade chip in my opinion, due to the salary and other internal and potentially equal options. On that note, in the 20-21 offseason he would be as well regardless.
With Mlbtraderumors.com doing their mock draft and talking about the possibility of expansion I’ve thought about this.
-Release Fowler, eat the last year of that terrible deal and use the spot to protect the future.
-Decline the option on Wong, but could always negotiate with him as a free agent or work a trade of him before declining the option. I’d rather have Edman and especially rather have Edman vs paying Wong 12.5 million.Paul Goldschmidt (NTC?)
Matt Carpenter (NTC)
Miles Mikolas (NTC)
Dylan Carlson
Jack Flaherty
Paul DeJong
Tommy Edman
Dakota Hudson
Giovanny Gallegos
Harrison Bader
Jordan Hicks
Ryan Helsley
Junior Fernandez
Tyler O’Neill
Alex ReyesUNPROTECTED (order I would protect for 2nd round too):
Andrew Knizner
Genesis Cabrera
Carlos Martinez
Lane Thomas
Kwang Hyun Kim
John Gant
John Brebbia
Edmundo Sosa
Justin Williams
Daniel Ponce de Leon
Austin Dean
Rangel Ravelo
Tyler WebbI leave Carlos unprotected. $11.7 in 2021, $17 option, $18 option. If someone takes the contract then oh well, and then they can protect Knizner, Cabrera, Thomas from the 2nd round. I worry Carlos would be very attractive pick to trade off too. If Carlos wasn’t selected in the 1st round, he would be one of my 3 I protect for the 2nd round.
Wouldn’t protect Kim. 31 years old. 1 more guaranteed year. Maybe he gets picked as a trade piece, but don’t view him as a huge protection for now or the future.
Brebbia and Gant are mostly replaceable.
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