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The following is a copy/paste of a rant I generously provided to VEB readers back in January. With Dakota Hudson throwing yet another nice game on Monday, this seemed like the time to bring these numbers over here.
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Dakota Hudson versus FIP, covering all of his professional performances exceeding 25 innings. (And using Clay Davenport’s version of FIP.)
2017 in AA, 2.53 ERA and 4.14 FIP
2017 in AAA, 4.42 ERA and 4.78 FIP
2018 in AAA, 2.50 ERA and 4.05 FIP
2018 in MLB, 2.63 ERA and 5.07 FIP
2019 in MLB, 3.35 ERA and 4.58 FIPOn average Hudson beat his FIP by 1.44 runs. But small samples can mislead. Let’s just look at the samples of more than 110 innings.
2017 in Double-A, ERA 1.61 lower than FIP
2018 in Triple-A, ERA 1.55 lower than FIP
2019 in the N.L., ERA 1.23 lower than FIP
So, using only the largest sample sizes, he beat his FIP by an average of 1.46 runs.No doubt some portion of that is luck. Only relief pitchers can beat their FIP by a bundle, over and over — see Zack Britton. But I also think Hudson does have a ton of talent, and will continue to beat his FIP by a decisive amount. (More of course, if he has a tight infield defense supporting him.)
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In 2014 and 2015 college pitcher Dakota Hudson threw just 17 innings each year. Then in 2016, with that paucity of major college pitching experience, he nevertheless dominated college baseball as a starting pitcher in the toughest conference. This of course resulted in his being drafted in the first round.
Then in 2017 in his first full pro season he dominated Double-A. Won the ERA crown and was Pitcher of the Year in his league. In 2018 he dominated Triple-A. Lowest ERA for anyone in the PCL with 100+ innings, and again Pitcher of the Year. And then in 2019 he enjoyed conspicuous success as a starting pitcher in the major leagues.
Given Hudson’s “angry stuff” as Fangraphs called it last year in their StL prospects writeup, and given the persuasive particulars of that college & pro pitching resume, I can’t for the life of me understand why Dakota’s 2019 was dismissed by some FIP fanatics as a fluke.
I see a guy with a rare (and not easy to harness) velocity/movement combo, who’s very much still learning the craft of pitching. I wouldn’t be shocked if those final two months of 2019 were a harbinger of things to come.
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There’s been plenty to complain about with Mike Shildt so far this season. But to his credit he does continue to manage the workloads of his younger pitchers as cautiously (i.e., shrewdly) as his immediate predecessor. Flaherty & Hudson could be a dynamite combo for the next several seasons.
Hudson is looking even better this year with his K rate sneaking up and his walks going down. I agree that he could be a good #2 to the potentially dominant Jack Flaherty. I also think he’s more likely to stick around than Jack, who I’ve already written off as gone after 2023.
I’ll also add that I’d still consider trading him for an impact bat. The hard part is that you’d have to have a team that values him as highly as your analysis does, and not just the type that looks at FIP and says he’s mediocre or average.
I’m going to take it back on including him with others on a list as possible trade pieces. That 95mph sinker is nasty.
I do not profess to be a FIP expert, but reading Bob’s post makes me wonder if its formulas need to be adjusted for sinker ball pitchers. I wonder if other pitchers with styles similar to Hudson also fare much better than their FIPs indicate they should…
I remember at ST in 2017 how the coaches and announcers were raving about that sinker. One of the best they had ever seen.
I do not profess to be a FIP expert, but reading Bob’s post makes me wonder if its formulas need to be adjusted for sinker ball pitchers. I wonder if other pitchers with styles similar to Hudson also fare much better than their FIPs indicate they should…
FIP is a fairly simple formula, which probably could be tweaked but would still tilt toward favoring one pitcher or another. In the case of the current formula, it punishes guys who allow contact of any type (homers, balls in play) and rewards strikeouts. So a guy who gives up a lot of soft grounders is treated similarly to someone who gives up line drives. Some stats like xBA and xBABIP help account for quality of contact. Maybe there is an xFIP, not sure.
I thought his control would improve. But last night he had 7 strikeouts and no walks, along with 12 ground ball outs. I didn’t expect all that, this soon. That’s top of rotation stuff. Excited to see what he does in his next outing.
It was nice to see Gallegos come in an pitch like a true closer.
I like Woodford as much as anybody. He seems to be able to hit his spots well. But it seems to me that the batters are starting to look like they know where the pitch is going to end up. I hope he develops more movement on his pitches.
I view Hudson as a solid number 3 starter, similar to Mikolas. The difference is Hudson is much cheaper thus would probably be easier to trade if we had the opportunity to get a big bat. The key to Dakota, as Bob mentioned, is the defense around him. He is a pitch to contact guy so he must have a strong defense, especially on the IF. Fortunately we have provided that for the most part, with the exception of 3B at times.
I think the Cardinals win either way with Dakota. Keep him and he is a solid number 3 capable of giving you 180 innings or he could be a very valuable trade chip.
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