Chances of making it to the Major Leagues

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  • #125978
    Avatarbccran
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    Here’s one interesting study re the percentage of minor league drafted (and then signed) players that will eventually make it to the major leagues.

    1at round –
    97.2% sign
    66.7% of the signed players make it to the major leagues
    46.8% play in the majors for 3+ years

    2nd round –
    94.8% sign
    49.4% make it to the major leagues
    31.5% play in the majors for 3+ years

    3rd round –
    93.5% sign
    39.7% make it to the major leagues
    21.6% play in the majors for 3+ years

    4th round –
    92.9% sign
    35% make it to the major leagues
    18.6% play in the majors for 3+ years

    5th round –
    92.1% sign
    33.3% make it to the major leagues
    18.6% play in the majors for 3+ years

    6th round –
    92.3% sign
    24.4% make it to the major leagues
    10.6% play in the majors for 3+ years

    7th round –
    92.7% sign
    20.4% make it to the major leagues
    9.0% play in the majors for 3+ years

    8th round –
    92.3% sign
    24.4% make it to the major league
    10.6% play in the majors for 3+ years

    9th round –
    91.0% sign
    17.8% make it to the major leagues
    7.8% play in the majors for 3+ years

    10th round –
    87.9% sign
    17.5% make it to the major leagues
    8.3% play in the majors for 3+ years

    11-15 rounds –
    86.1% sign
    12.7% make it to the major leagues
    5.2% play in the majors for 3+ years

    16-20 rounds –
    81.6% sign
    9.0% make it to the major leagues
    4.4% play in the majors for 3+ years

    Would love to hear Black Hills take on this.

    BW made a statement that by the numbers of 10% eventually making it, there are 24 or so present Cardinal minor leaguers that will make it to majors. Perhaps hard to believe. But if you spread out our whole system into 6 year projections, that would mean 4 of our minor leaguers would wear a St. Louis Cardinals uniform for the first time in a average season. That may actually on average be fairly close to being historically correct.

    #125994
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    My 24 number was conservative. It was simply a bridge assuming your 10% was accurate times the approximate number of non-40-man roster minor leaguers currently in the system.

    The actual number of MLB debuts with St. Louis in any given season is higher than you may think:

    2019: 8
    2018: 9
    2017: 11
    etc…

    That is 28 in the last three years alone. Of course, not all are homegrown. Not all are prospects and not all have staying power.

    I have not compared to other organizations, but my gut is that the Cardinals percentage just reaching MLB is higher than the MLB average. (The quantity vs. quality discussion.)

    I will stop here, as this is the subject of one of the upcoming articles in our Minor League History series.

    #125995
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    When you get deeper into this and want to try to segment by team, you have to decide how to count free agents and trade acquisitions. Do they get counted with their original organization or for the one with which they actually reached the majors? etc… The assumptions can change the numbers…

    P.S. It would always be helpful to provide the link to others’ work referenced so the rest of us can look into these details… Thanks.

    #125996
    Avatarbccran
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    I think the Cardinal average is higher than the MLB average.

    Are you also going to do a study on the percentage of high school draftees that make it vs. college draftees (by round)?
    High schools pitchers, high school position players, college pitchers, and college position players. Those results are very interesting.

    #125997
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    No, my intent is simply to review StL’s MLB debuts. It is not going to be a deep study of sources.

    #125998
    Avatarbccran
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    #126002
    Avatarbccran
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    A fairly decent judge of talent has been the MLB Top 100 prospect list put out every year. Just for the heck of it, looked up all Cardinals that made the list for the past 10 years –

    2011 – Miller, Martinez
    2012 – Taveras, Miller, Martinez, Wong, Rosenthal
    2013 – Taveras, Wong
    2014 – Piscotty, Kaminsky, Marco Gonzales
    2015 – Reyes, Kaminsky Flaherty
    2016 – Reyes, O’Neill, Bader
    2017 – Reyes, Kelly, Flaherty, O’Neill, Bader
    2018 – Reyes, Liberatore, Gorman, Hudson
    2019 – Carlson, Gorman, Liberatore
    2020 – Carlson, Gorman, Liberatore

    Interesting. Maybe the future holds well with Flaherty, Hudson, Martinez, Reyes, Liberatore, Wong, O’Neill, Bader,
    Gorman, and Carlson. If O’Neill and Bader live up to their billing and Carlson and Gorman come on strong, we could have a really good ball club for years to come.

    #126029
    Avatarbccran
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    BW – I count 8 Cardinal players who
    made their major league debut in 2019 –

    Edman
    Knizner
    Thomas
    Ravelo
    Arozarena
    Cabrera
    Helsley
    Fernandez

    Double the 4 average. But maybe just a sign of being a tad too heavy.

    #126030
    Avatar14NyquisT
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    On the pitching side, IMO, you can add Thompson-Fernandez-Oviedo plus C Herrera as prized prospects.

    #126031
    Avatarbccran
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    It would be interesting to see which Cardinals make the MLB top 100 list next year, if we have any sort of season this year. Carlson if he’s still eligible. Gorman for sure. Liberatore for sure. Thompson maybe? Herrera perhaps?

    #126034
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    Well, if there is no season, it stands to reason that no players will graduate and none will perform badly such that they would be knocked off. So there would not be room for others to join, nor would they be doing anything to earn their way on, anyway.

    However, there is one exception as I see it. If there is a 2020 draft, which could happen even if there is no season, those newly-drafted players could squeeze others out of the current top 100 just based on reputation.

    Long-winded way of saying that if a Herrera, for example, isn’t on now, and there is no season, he isn’t going to make it next spring, either.

    Let’s just hope the threat will diminish such that we can see some baseball this summer. Otherwise, it will be a very long, cold and dull winter…

    #126043
    Avatarmudville
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    Here’s some math:
    Rounds 10-15 – 150 players drafted
    – 150 players X 5.2% (number of players that stay in the majors for 3 or more years) = 7.8 players who are good enough to stick for more than 3 years.
    Rounds 16-20 – 150 players drafted
    – 150 players X 4.4% = 6.6 players who are good enough to stick for more than 3 years.
    Add players who are good enough, Rounds 10-15 – 7.8
    Add players who are good enough, Rounds 16-20 – 6.6
    Total number of players that are good enough 14.6.
    14.6 players divided by 30 ball clubs = .48 (or 1 player every two years) who are good enough to stick for 3+ years.

    What this says is that in Rounds 11-20 of a draft, of the 10 additional players drafted, the ball club only gets 1/2 player per year, or 1 player every 2 years, that can provide future long term talent for the club. Obviously, for players drafted in the rounds past the first 20, there is even less return on investment for the ball clubs. With that it would seem fair to say that MLB ball clubs are not spending money wisely by having a draft longer than 10 rounds.

    Personally, I think there are subjective factors that determine the value of a longer draft, also. One of those factors would be the additional number of kids that will hold hope of being drafted if there is a longer draft. Who knows how far the impact of that reaches!

    • This reply was modified 1 month, 4 weeks ago by Avatarmudville.
    • This reply was modified 1 month, 4 weeks ago by Avatarmudville.
    #126050
    Avatarbccran
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    Good stuff, Mudville. It would be interesting to go back 20 years or so and see how many Cardinal draftees from round 10 on ever made it to the majors. I may try to do that tomorrow.

    #126052
    AvatarMinuteman3
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    Nothing to add but it looks like a lot to learn here so I just post to get my name on the email reply list. Thanks for good info guys.

    #126058
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    Is it fair to assume that even with the shortened draft, teams will be able to sign UDFA players to fill out rosters? In some ways it may be a little better for those guys drafted in later rounds so they can grab deals.

    #126061
    Avatarbccran
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    Let’s start by taking a look at the drafts from 2000-2011. Those were 50 player drafts, before going to 40 in 2012. Let’s see who finally made it of the top 10 picks and who were dark horses later on who had at least a cup of coffee (or better) in the majors.

    2000 – Narveson (2) Molina (4) Gall (11) Tyler Johnson (38)
    One all star, one who had a little success, and 2 cups of coffee.

    2001 – Haren (2) Schumacker (5) no dark horses
    One excellent starting pitcher and one decent position player.

    2002 – Brad Thompson (16) Kyle McClellan (25)
    None of the top 15 picks made it. 2 relievers had a degree of success

    2003 – Anthony Reyes (15) Jason Motte (19)
    None of the top 14 made it. Motte was an acorn in a snow storm. Sure wish that guy name Scherzer, whom we drafted in the 43rd round, had signed.

    2004 – No one from 47 players drafted in this draft made it.

    2005 – Rasmus (1) Tyler Greene (2 – ugh) Boggs (5) Stavinoa (7)
    We drafted AJ Van Slyke in the 23rd round.
    One highly talented outfielder and one fairly good reliever.

    2006 – Ottavino (1) Jay (2) Chris Perez (2) Sugar Shane (3) Craig (8) Pham (16) Gregerson (28)
    Good draft. Ottavino, Jay, Craig, Pham, and Gregerson have all had success.

    2007 – Kozma (1) Descalso (3) Sam Freeman (24) Adron Chambers (28)
    Well, at least PK had that hit to right field against the Nats and DD was around for awhile.

    2008 – Wallace (1) Lynn (CA) Siegrist (41)
    One excellent starter and one serviceable reliever.

    2009 – Miller (1) Joe Kelly (3) Carp (13) Rosey (21)
    Adams (23)
    Good draft.

    2010 – Tuivailala (3) Greg Garcia (7) Lyons (9)
    No much from this draft. Garcia and Lyons had their moments. Tui did bring us Seth Elledge in a trade – lol.

    2011 – Wong (1) Maness (11) Sherriff (28)
    Gaviglio was drafted in the 5th round. Possible all star in the 1st round. Two short tenured relievers.

    So what did we reap from these 12 drafts, of the roughly 600 players drafted? What percent made it from rounds 1-10? What percent from rounds 11-50? If may math is correct,
    22 out of 120 from the first 10 rounds (18.3%). And 17 out of 480 of the draftees from rounds 10-50 made it (3.5%) Really the only highly productive long tenured players over those 12 drafts seemed to be Molina, Haren, Motte, Rasmus, Pham, Jay, Craig, Lynn, Carp, Rosey, Kelly, and Wong. Average about one per year.

    Comments are very welcome.

    #126066
    Avatargscottar
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    Is it fair to assume that even with the shortened draft, teams will be able to sign UDFA players to fill out rosters? In some ways it may be a little better for those guys drafted in later rounds so they can grab deals.

    This part will be interesting to monitor. I am thinking that a lot of college players will come back to school since the max a UDFA can sign for is $20k. I guess it depends on where they were projected to go in the draft.

    #126067
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
    Keymaster

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    For additional perspective, each pick in rounds 6-10 was slotted from roughly $300K down to $140K. Now it is $20K.

    After round 10, the max for any pick used to be $125K. And that amount could be increased by any pool money saved in rounds 1-10. Now it is $20K max.

    My conclusion: A lot of good players may choose another sport or line of work instead of baseball. At a minimum, almost all of the underclassmen and high schoolers wiil remain in school.

    #126068
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    My conclusion: A lot of good players may choose another sport or line of work instead of baseball. At a minimum, almost all of the underclassmen and high schoolers wiil remain in school.

    Yep, good point. I personally think that baseball is in danger of dropping to the #3 sports league in the US and a lot of it will be because of blunders like this and the minor league pay standoff.

    #126072
    Avatarbccran
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    #1 – NFL
    #2 – ?
    #3 – MLB

    Who’s your #2, 25?

    #126073
    bicyclemikebicyclemike
    Moderator

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    Could be on the “which sport to pursue” thought. Still though, elite level sports require certain attributes if you want a decent chance to get to the top level. If you are big guy, say 250 pounds or more with some agility and speed, you should pursue football. If you are not quite so big, but have terrific eyesight and eye-hand coordination, or can throw 90+ MPH, perhaps pursue baseball – that sort of thing.

    Then there are those who could possibly do both. Years ago Reggie Jackson could have probably played in the NFL, but chose baseball because he felt he would likely have a longer career, and thus keep his earning potential high for a longer period of time.

    #126075
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    1 – NFL
    #2 – ?
    #3 – MLB

    Who’s your #2, 25?

    I think there’s a high likelihood that the NBA eventually passes MLB. NBA has grown from $5.18B to $8.76B the last five years while MLB has only risen from $9.5B to $10.7B in that time. It could take a few years but anything like a strike and it will quickly happen.

    #126076
    Avatarbccran
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    Just my opinion, but I don’t think the NBA will ever pass up MLB. Baseball tradition is way too deep and long standing.

    #126077
    Brian WaltonBrian Walton
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    “Never say never.” Generations change…

    #126079
    stlcard25stlcard25
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    The stats don’t bear it out. The NBA is expanding very fast in Asia and will probably continue to do so. Given that and that MLB just doesn’t get the top athletes that football and basketball do anymore (at least here in the US), and I’d be surprised if the NBA isn’t #2 within 5 years. MLB needs to find ways to incentivize the top talent to choose baseball over other sports, but instead they just look for ways to penalize the inexperienced players and make an already unbalanced system even worse. Baseball will always have a place but it may not be what they expected it to be even a few years ago.

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