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I have been thinking that the defense has not been up to par this year and the org somehow turned what had been a strength into something else. So I am surprised to see that the Cardinals ended the season with 67 errors, 4th fewest in MLB. Twins, Rangers and DBs have fewer. Fielding percentage is tied with the Twins for 3rd best at .989. Only the Rangers and DBs beat that. I am scratching my head about that.
It prompted me to go to the ESPN site which I know lists what they call dWAR in their fielding stats screen for each team. Looking at the Cardinals, down at the bottom, I was not surprised to see Walker among those with negative dWAR. But I was surprised to see Goldschmidt and Donovan both with negative dWAR. Contreras, the bat first catcher, is among the group at the top, with a very respectable dWAR. Hmmm.
Whenever a set of stats doesn’t confirm what we think we know we attack the stats and go find different stats that we like better, I get that. But even with that in mind, I am pretty confounded by some of this.
From listening to the broadcasts of other teams I am going to assume Arenado will NOT win the Gold Glove this year. I am pretty sure Walker won’t either..:)
r/Esteemed Rat
In the most recent SABR Defensive Index, published on 8/13, Arenado is seventh in the NL at third base. The reason this matters is that the SDI is 25% of the Gold Glove scoring. They won’t publish the final update of the SDI for the entire season until the GGs are announced.
Walker wasn’t listed yet, but perhaps he will for the final update. Through 8/13, the three lowest-rated NL OFs were Castellanos, Marte and Conforto.
P.S. The SDI is a measure of the number of runs saved by a player’s defensive performance over the course of a season, compared to the average defensive player at that position.
In 2022, the Cards won the NL team Defense Award, based on SDI.
“The Cardinals yielded five Rawlings Gold Glove Award finalists and two winners, while setting league defensive records to earn the Rawlings Team Defense Award. The Cardinals ranked first in the National League in defensive runs saved (15) and outs above average (14). The Cardinals also committed the least number of errors in their league (66).”
https://sabr.org/latest/trevino-arenado-win-2022-rawlings-platinum-glove-awards-presented-by-sabr/
Bling,
Defensive metrics are a bit challenging when only looking at them for 1 season. Often you need really large sample sizes. Also, d-WAR favors “skilled” position players so 1B is often low or negative. And for catcher, it doesn’t count framing or pitch calling so all you’re seeing is how well a catcher actually fields his position with balls in play. So SABR or OAA are probably the best for comparing apples to apples.
From the eye test even though I didn’t watch many games this year, I would consider this team weak defensively but that’s just from what I saw. It isn’t always about errors and misplays.
Did anyone think it looked better with Winn at ss? I did, but I’m extremely biased. I gotta have that strong arm at short.
Did anyone think it looked better with Winn at ss?
Shortly after Winn showed up I discontinued cable, so I really don’t know how it ‘looked’. To my way of thinking what actually matters is whether Winn’s defense made the product on the field any better. And in baseball a ‘better’ product on the field means one that wins more. That didn’t happen, but there were a lot of other factors contributing to that. The selloff, Donovan going on the shelf for good, Winn’s bat in the lineup.
My thinking is the 2024 team will roll out with Winn the starter at short. That means his glove and his bat. Whether that is the best option depends on who else is on the roster and whether they are needed somewhere besides at short. There will also be the question of whether the focus on winning each game is a higher priority that getting Winn the reps vs ML pitching so he hopefully improves, or vice versa. Who knows about that.
I guess we just have to wait until opening day 2024 to see what it’s going to look like. I do know that I saw Winn consistently make plays with his arm that only a few guys in the league can. When we get back to the games meaning something, will his defense be enough to make up for whatever his struggles on offense might be. That’s the big question. I’m guessing they give it a chance.
I think you can carry one .200 hitter in the lineup as long as the defense is elite (typically at SS or catcher I think).
I think he’ll hit better than he just showed, I certainly hope so.
The difference between at .200 hitter and a .300 hitter is 10 hits per 100 at bats and then of course the .200 hitter can be a .250 hitter with 25 hits per 100 at bats instead of 20 – so 5 more hits per 100.
If you figure a guy for between 20 and 25 at bats in a week then he really only needs roughly 1 more hit per week to get the BA from about .200 to about .250.
OBP needs a walk or two.
I think Winn will hit enough to be a starting MLB SS. He was slightly rushed but it’s not like other guys haven’t had the bat knocked out of their hands at first. If he can be an average hitter he will be very valuable, as we’ve seen with Tommy Edman.
We already have a fine defensive shortstop hitting .250 so I’m not troubled about the future of Winn, and I’m not opposed to offering him as trade bait if the return is right. If Winn improves 80 points on his BA, that amounts to what we already have.
Knowing the Cardinals a little bit, if it comes down to which to trade, they would trade the one with only two years of control remaining and hope Winn’s bat comes along.
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