Cardinals Prospects Rankings

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  • #157511
    grenadier1
    Participant

    Paid - Three Months

    I’ve again compiled all of the pre-season Cardinals Prospects list I could find. I think this site is the top of the game in ranking a providing the in-depth analysis for Cards prospects but to add on to the Analysis that Brian has already posted here are the lists I found/used:
    MLB/Cardinal Nation/ESPN/Fangraphs/The Athletic/RazzBall/BBHQ/Baseball America/Prospects Live/Prospects 1500/Roto Professor/Pitcher List/CBS/KSDK. All of them vary in size and the lens they view the prospects through (Scouting, Fantasy, etc…) so I think it gives a good cross section.

    A few interesting stats:
    -There were 66 prospects ranked on at least one of these lists.
    -There is a clear consensus top 3 and a pretty good consensus top 10.
    -The next “tier” is 11 to 22 all being relatively close.
    -Carlson/Gorman/Liberatore/Walker/Winn/Thompson were on every list with at least a top 10.
    -Newer prospects to the system like Edwin Nunez, Leonardo Bernal, Luis Pino, Adari Grant and Bernardo Flores were lower because they were on very few or no lists.
    -TheCardinalNation’s list is one of the first to come out and you can see there are very few large differences in the top 30 and the consensus top 30. Pretty good testament to Brian and Matt’s prospect/system knowledge.

    I used the average and weighted it for number of lists they appeared on to arrive at the “Expert Rankings.” I’ll list the Weighted Average, Avg, Mode, and Variance for each player. So for Dylan Carlson his weighted average is .0664 with a mode of 1 and a variance of .0625 meaning his most common ranking was 1 and there was little to no variance in where people ranked him (in fact only one of the prospect rankings had him at #2). Not perfect but results below:

    TCN Rnk AVG Wtd Avg Mode Variance
    1. Dylan Carlson 1 1.06 .0664 1 .0625
    2. Nolan Gorman 2 2.47 .1453 2 .7647
    3. Matthew Liberatore 3 2.94 .173 2 1.8088
    4. Ivan Herrera 4 4.73 .3156 4 3.4952
    5. Jordan Walker 6 5.65 .3322 6 3.4926
    6. Zack Thomposon 5 5.56 .3477 5 1.8625
    7. Masyn Winn 8 6.88 .4297 7 3.9833
    8. Johan Oviedo 9 8.83 .7361 10 7.6061
    9. Jhon Torres 13 11.71 .8367 13 37.6044
    10. Tink Hence 11 12.33 1.0278 10 44.0606
    11. Malcom Nunez 14 15.18 1.3802 17 18.1636
    12. Angel Rondon 10 12.44 1.3827 12 7.5278
    13. Junior Fernandez 15 14.20 1.42 15 19.0667
    14. Trejyn Fletcher 12 14.40 1.44 24 41.8222
    15. Kodi Whitley 16 15.50 1.55 15 26.5
    16. Justin Williams 17 16.50 1.65 19 14.5
    17. Edmundo Sosa 21 16.75 2.0938 n/a 34.7857
    18. Ian Bedell 26 20.44 2.2716 n/a 36.7778
    19. Julio Rodriguez 25 21.56 2.3951 33 54.0278
    20. Luken Baker 23 19.50 2.4375 n/a 48.5714
    21. Edwin Nunez 24 14.83 2.4722 12 28.9667
    22. Alec Burleson 27 22.78 2.5309 21 12.4444
    23. Seth Elledge 18 21.86 3.1224 22 49.1429
    24. Andre Pallante 28 25.00 3.5714 25 8.33
    25. Patrick Romeri 29 28.17 4.6944 26 4.57
    26. Griffin Roberts 20 24.40 4.88 n/a 68.30
    27. Juan Yepez 41 30.83 5.1389 23 110.57
    28. Levi Prater 31 29 5.8 n/a 17.5
    29. Alvaro Seijas 36 30.80 6.16 n/a 107.2
    30. Connor Capel 48 31.60 6.32 48 256.30

    Again there were 66 prospects mentioned on at least 1 list. Here are the rest.
    31. Justin Toerner
    32. Evan Mendoza
    33. Edgardo Rodriguez
    34. Brendan Donovan
    35. John Nogowski
    36. Tommy Parsons
    37. Roel Ramirez
    38. Logan Gragg
    39. LJ Jones
    40. Ludwin Jimenez
    41. Leonardo Bernal
    42. Darlin Moquete
    43. Ali Sanchez
    44. Evan Kruczynski
    45. Chandler Redmond
    46. Delvin Perez
    47. Leandro Cedeno
    48. Pedro Pages
    49. Edgar Escobar
    50. Kramer Robertson
    51. Steven Gingery
    52. Alex Fagalde
    53. Jake Burns
    54. Franklin Soto
    55. Jack Ralston
    56. Lars Nootbaar
    57. Bernardo Flores
    58. Jonatan Machado
    59. Adanson Cruz
    60. Jesus Cruz
    61. Connor Jones
    62. Rodard Avelino
    63. Brady Whalen
    64. Domingo Robles
    65. Francisco Justo
    66. Michael YaSenka

    #157512
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Nice work, grenadier1.

    #157525
    blingboy
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    Seeing Delvin Perez buried well down in the also rans got me wondering about how many years of control we have left with him. He was young when we we drafted him, age 17 his first year in the system. Not sure of the effect that has. Also not sure if 2020 counts. This is his 6th calendar year in the system although he is only 22. I know the story from earlier in the spring, that he has found a new maturity and serious approach. Put on muscle, etc. But if he runs out of time it doesn’t matter. Not to us at least.

    #157526
    gscottar
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I think Perez will be eligible for the rule 5 draft this offseason if I am not mistaken. He needs to have a very good year in the minors to get a 40 man spot.

    #157532
    14NyquisT
    Participant

    Thanks for your work… you must be as anxious as I am for the minor leagues to start up after all of the time off. By Sept. the list will look different and we’ll see who are the prospects that will be moving upward. Hopefully we have a couple of sleepers to go along with the high potential guys.

    #157536
    mudville
    Participant

    Paid - Annual

    I have to think that if the recently signed Luis Pino’s name had come up earlier, he would have made it on some of the lists, also. His signing bonus was a substantial $767,00 plus $75,000 for school, and it sounds like he was pretty well regarded as a prospect by several teams.

    #157609
    Brian Walton
    Keymaster

    Paid - Annual

    Delvin Perez was already Rule 5 eligible this past December, but obviously was not taken. Minor league free agency will come after the 2022 season.

    TCN 2021 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect #42 – Delvin Perez

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