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I’m of the opinion that the Cardinals want to remain a fairly competitive team as they go through a “reset”.
This is for two reasons –1.) BDW doesn’t want to lose more
fans, who might not come back. That means keeping the Cards
in the playoff hunt.
2.) Mo may not want to go out on a losing note.Therefore, even though they are going to put emphasis on improving the system, and lowering the overall payroll, they still might want to keep enough proven major leaguers.
I can see them letting Goldy, Gibson, and Lynn go, and somehow dumping Mikolas, but keeping Arenado, Contreras, Gray, and Helsley.
This thread is started in lieu of the thread that has reached 100 pages.
The simple answer is – Yes, of course they can. There’s definitely a chance that they can remain competitive. That’s not even that hard to imagine if they kept most of the core together and Walker and Gorman hit like it’s 2023.
The better question is – Will they stay competitive?
Good question bccran. None of us really know how big of a “reset” this will be. I will say that I do not think this will be a full on tank job. They are not going to gut it down to a 50 to 60 win team but can they reduce payroll, go with younger players, and still build a 85-90 win team? I highly doubt it considering they just won 83 games when they were trying to build a winner.
I think the reality is that we are going to have to accept 70-80 wins for the next year or two unless guys like Gorman and Walker all of a sudden reach their potential, as jnevel alluded to.
Helsley should be traded now. His trade value will never be higher than it is now. What if he gets hurt between now and the deadline? What if his results go south? Relievers can be fickle. Ask the Pirates about David Bednar.
I think one of Arenado, Contreras, or Gray will be traded but not all three.
We don’t know what “reset” is going to mean as far as the ML roster. But I will mention that they were not competitive last year and we will lose some guys. I know they were mathematically in it, but they never made a run all year, just plodding along like a team with no beating heart.
Personally i dont see it unless the other teams come back to the field. Hitting is a question mark but regardless i feel their pitching is below par by a long shot. But we will see.
They might be if some things fall the right way. The Cardinals are a very conservative organization. They don’t take the plunge and go all out to win, and now with this new plan they are not taking the plunge and going all out on a rebuild.
Thus like the teams we have had that are pretty good, but not great, I think we will be “kind of” bad next year, but not horrible. But you get a jolt of maturity from Walker and Gorman, Winn does not have a sophomore jinx, and a couple of vets rebound then who knows?
They weren’t competitive this year so I don’t see how they can be competitive next year in the middle of a “reset,” whatever that is.
When management starts making its excuses before the season even starts the outlook can’t be good.
They might have very well been 93-69 if Arenado and Goldschmidt had played up to their previous standards, IMO.
Well, I’d say you’re right. In ’22 Goldschmidt was awarded the NL MVP while Arenado placed 3rd in the voting for that same award as the Cardinals ended that regular season with a W/L record that read precisely 93-69. Then the whiz-kid manager put his special brand of genuis on display.
Well. if finishing 10 games out and just barely over .500 meets your standard for competitive, then I guess the subject is closed.
The 5 yr ROE since the short 2020 season will now be fixed before opening day. The gradual decay of the player budget will now bottom out. Good luck getting the budget back up.
“Competitive” depends on the pitching kept. We could be 2023 or worse if Gray and Helsley are gone.
They tried to be the Cardinals definition of “competitive” in 2023 & 2024.
They utterly failed in 2023 and they failed to compete for the division in 2024.
Not until they recast their definition of “competitive” as trying to at least win the division every year will they be competitive. And so far, they haven’t made that adjustment.
The fact that they are setting the bar even lower for their goals in 2025 means they have already lost.
Competing for a WC spot in the bloated playoffs? Sure – only 3 or 4 teams don’t do that in any given season. A team has to be on track for 95-100 losses to be ‘eliminated’ even two weeks before the end of the season.
Compete for even a division title? Not next year but after that who knows? Each year is it’s own thing.
Compete for the NL Pennant? Probably not in the next two years but going in ’27 we should have a reasonably clear picture whether or not what is happening now is working or not.
From May 30 until the end of the season, the Cards were within five games of first place for a grand total of just five days (plus the off time during the All-Star break). That ain’t competitive for very long…
Hope that ain’t the way it’s going to be in 2025.
All the noise about the 2025 team says we should lower our expectations. I’m going to take their advice. If Walker and Gorman progress and a couple of these young pitchers emerge, that would be a good season for me. Maybe Wetherholt earns a late season call up. Saggesse earns a role.
If they want to compete for the NL Central and have trade pieces available at the deadline, they could sign a bunch of former Cardinals – Harrison Bader as a CF, Randall Grichuk as a RF and Paul DeJong as a utility player.
Before you laugh:
Bader has a career .698 OPS versus a career .547 OPS for Sianni. Bader also sports a career .776 OPS vs LHP. Spotrac projects Bader to get a 1-year, $7 million deal.Grichuk has a career .768 OPS, including a career .833 OPS vs LHP. He had a .914 OPS vs LHP in 2024. He has a $6 million mutual option for 2025.
PDJ has a career .714 OPS, versus Fermin’s Career .504 PDJ suffers from reverse splits, however. Spotrac projects him to get a 2 year/$10 million deal.
All three former Cardinals would cost roughly $20 million per year
Then you have:
1B – Burleson/Baker
2B – Gorman/Donovan/PDJ
SS – Winn/PDJ
3B – Arenado/Donovan/PDJ
LF – Donovan/Nootbaar/Grichuk
CF – Bader/Nootbaar/Sianni
RF – Nootbaar/Grichuk
C – Conteras/HerreraThe thing that hurt the Cardinals the most last year was lack of OF depth. This solves that issue. They also lacked a viable RH lineup against left-handed pitching. This solves that issue.
What it does not make up for is the lack of production from Goldschmidt and Arenado, though a platoon of Burleson and Baker should more than make up for Goldschmidt’s offensive production.
I think Mo said to the effect that young players will get a chance, but I don’t have the exact quote. My take is that means more so than in 2024. So the question is Who? Where? When?
More young players getting more chance means old players getting less chance, but not necessarily all of it as of opening day. There could be moves offing the old players from after the WS all the way to next year’s deadline. And by old players, I don’t just mean old in age. Anybody who has been a regular would count. As I am fond of saying, sacred cow will be on the menu. I doubt Winn goes anywhere, but anyone else would not be shocking.
Something to keep in mind, though, is there has to be someone worth giving a try to. In that regard, we should accept the possibility that a Bloom influence may shift the player profiles that are in favor. Maybe they pivot toward contact hitters. Maybe they move away from platoons. Maybe they emphasize defense or move away from playing guys off their natural position. Maybe none of that happens. But we should be ready for change.
If there is one thing they do, I hope it is to move away from high strike out guys. Looking at what the Dodgers lineup can do with the ultra low strike out guys, Betts and Freeman in the 2-3 holes is amazin. Take note Bloomster. The homer a week and nothing in between guys are home on the couch.
All the noise about the 2025 team says we should lower our expectations. I’m going to take their advice.
Agreed KCB. I have said this repeatedly but some folks are still clinging to the dream that we are going to try to win the division.
Spoiler Alert: We aren’t.
Maybe they pivot toward contact hitters. Maybe they move away from platoons. Maybe they emphasize defense or move away from playing guys off their natural position. Maybe none of that happens. But we should be ready for change.
Those are all really good points.
I don’t think the Cardinals are going to try to win the division. I don’t think they’ve been trying to win the division for years. Their mantra is “just get in”, not “win a division championship.”
I merely gave a way they could improve the offense within their budget limitations of lowering payroll (though we don’t know if they are shooting for a $20 million reduction, $40 million reduction or $80 million reduction).
If they were really trying to win the division, they would get Teoscar Hernandez for left field, Anthony Santander for right field, move Nootbaar to CF and Donovan to 2B.
The “former Cardinals” approach is a low-cost way to attempt to compete and potentially pick up some prospects at the deadline should they fail (the most likely outcome).
This will likely be the third year in a row they try to put Jordan Walker in right field. The first year, he couldn’t play defense to save his life. Last year, he couldn’t hit. Maybe, third time is a charm, or maybe they decide they have to move on. I would make him prove he can hit and play defense at AAA before I put him on the big league roster.
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