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Snell’s progression through the minors in the Rays system is a perfect example of the classic approach, before elimination of the short season teams. Although he was a first rounder, he did not hit full season ball in low A until his third pro year. He sometimes was held over in a level year to year until he demonstrated mastery of that level. He made his ML debut in his 6th pro year. He didn’t spend his draft year bubble wrapped. He never advanced just due to time served, or got beamed up skipping levels, he had to earn each promotion with results.
The Rays either magically didn’t have any organizational need for 6 years, or they figured ways to address organizational need without screwing up the development progression of a top prospect.
Overall, Ithink Boras has had a rough offseason. He probably imagined his clients were in line to get a larger, longer and more guaranteed pay day. To be fair, these clients all had consistency issues that scared teams away from the longer term deals. That and the fear of significant over pay in the final years of the deal.
Hard to believe Monty is still hanging out there.
Snell’s progression through the minors in the Rays system is a perfect example of the classic approach, before elimination of the short season teams. Although he was a first rounder, he did not hit full season ball in low A until his third pro year. He sometimes was held over in a level year to year until he demonstrated mastery of that level. He made his ML debut in his 6th pro year. He didn’t spend his draft year bubble wrapped. He never advanced just due to time served, or got beamed up skipping levels, he had to earn each promotion with results.
I’m not saying every prospect has to spend 6 years in development. But we need to look at what’s been successful for the other teams out there who are developing major league pitching instead of having to buy at the fa counter every year. We have to get much better at evaluating the talent we do have. It sounds like Chaim Bloom will be heavily involved in this process. But the point you make is paramount to the success of the program. We can’t rush these guys up the ladder for need at the major league level.
Which would have been better for the Cards. Snell 2/62 or Gray 3/75 ?
For me, they’re both similar in the risk/reward. Gray’s contract may have a slightly higher ceiling, but it isn’t a lot.
Both contracts are probably untradeable – at least for any value. For Snell, if he’s good or average in year 1, he opts out and the Giants will have either paid market value for a good pitcher or overpaid for an average one. If Snell is poor or gets injured, then he opts in and the Giants potentially way overpay for the production they get. Gray has more variance because he’ll be in St Louis for 3 years regardless so each year could be different. Maybe one good year, one average year, and one injured or poor year feels most likely. Both teams are probably overpaying for the production they end up getting although there’s a small chance either comes out slightly ahead.
I’m really not sure which one I’d rather have. Ideally neither. But I’ll take Gray in a toss up.
It’s $10,000 per pitch if he reaches 100 pitches and if he makes over 30 starts.
You know, when you look at it like that – ain’t no way it’s worth it. For anybody.
It’s beyond ridiculous and there is nobody to blame but us fans that it has gotten to this point.
A two year deal limits the risk, and the Giants are well financed and will be able to handle whatever happens with Snell. Boras is likely disappointed he signed for only 2 years, but the pitchers are just too risky to go long-term, especially older ones.
I am still hopefully we can grab Monty on a no-more-than 3 year deal, maybe similar to Gray’s contract. But realistically I doubt management will do that. And heck, maybe Thompson or Libby turns out better over the next three years anyway, although Monty has been there-done that and those guys have not.
Oh I would clearly rather have Gray than Snell, mostly because because of reliability. Yes I am aware that Gray is currently hurt but it sounds like it is a shot term thing.
Snell’s outcomes are about as extreme as it gets. He is either going to win the cy young or spend half the year on the IL, rarely anything in between. The guys is only 31 years olf and just won the CY yet could only get a two year deal. That tells me that most teams were very wary of his ability to stay on the field and this his agent vastly overplayed his hand.
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