- This topic has 10 replies, 8 voices, and was last updated 2 months, 2 weeks ago by
.
-
Posts
-
We are halfway to the finish line. It’s time to evaluate who has been the most valuable compared to your expectations coming into the season and who has not lived up to expectations at all. The Cardinals were projected for around 85 wins. That’s basically where they are still sitting now. But some guys have been surprising in a good way and others in a bad way.
My 5 best surprises:
1) Winn – I knew Winn had to be a better hitter than last season, but I was expecting something like an 85 WRC+. Winn has blown that out of the water.
2) Lynn – I figured Lynn would have an ERA a little north of 5. He’s been so much better. I’m still not sold as some of it has been smoke and mirrors, but he’s still exceeding my expectations both in performance and certainly in watchability.
3) Helsley – I knew Ryan was great. I just didn’t realize he would continue to sustain that greatness for this long and stay healthy.
4) Gibson – I was on the Gibson bandwagon at the beginning because I thought it was a good value contract. But Gibson has been better than average by quite a bit.
5) Kittredge – I didn’t know what to expect. Andrew was basically coming off a major injury. I was just hoping he’d stay healthy and be solid. He’s been a lifesaver though. The guy never gets rattled and just comes in and does his job.Others I considered, but who just weren’t far enough above where I thought they’d be: Siani, Burleson, Herrera, Pages, Contreras, Gray, Nootbaar, Pallante.
My 5 Disappointments:
1) Goldschmidt – I knew he was old. But he worked all offseason on bat speed. I never imagined that he’d crater to a below average hitter so quickly. He has our most at bats on the season. This one has really hurt.
2) Arenado – my expectations weren’t all that high. But I was still expecting better than average defense with around a 110 WRC+. We’re getting neither.
3) Gorman – He’s so lost right now. Bling is actually right. He needs to go to AAA with Walker. He probably just needs to take a whole month off to work on swing mechanics and then go to AAA.
4) Edman – It’s not his fault. However, he’s gone from being the starting center fielder who should be ready to go by opening day to maybe being ready to play who knows where by sometime after the All Star Break.
5) Carlson – Dylan looked good in ST. Then he got hurt. Then he got rushed back too early. None of that was his fault. But nothing he’s doing now is exciting. He’s working hard to try to hit singles and take some walks. Not exciting or living up to expectations.Others receiving consideration: Walker, Matz, Thompson, Gallegos, Middleton.
Who are your top and bottom 5 compared to where you thought they’d be?
That’s pretty close to my thinking. Nootbar belongs in the second disappointment tier. And I would swap Carlson and Matz. But that’s me nit picking. Nice job.
Sadly, Noot is on my disappointment list too, but, as is the case with all, there is half a season left.
Top 5 Surprises:
1. Siani
2. Pages
3. Kitty
4. Fernandez
5. BurlyTop 5 Disappointments:
1. Arenado
2. Goldy
3. Walker
4. Gorman
5. NootAll 3 of the additions to the rotation have far exceeded my expectations. Burleson, and to a lesser extent, Winn, have been pleasant surprises. I’d have to say, Goldschmidt is the biggest disappointment with the bat only because I’ve always thought of him as the far better hitter than Arenado. I also feel that while Goldschmidt’s continued to be solid with the mitt, Arenado seems to have let his struggles in the batter’s box migrate over the the left corner of the IF defensively, so he could really look to dial it up in both of those areas. Gorman’s a major disappointment to the point of being on the cusp of being shipped down south, but he’s shown a propensity for a massive number of K’s in the past, so I’m not too surprised at his struggles. Edman’s been missed, but like someone else mentioned, it’s not his fault they sent him to an orthopedic guy named Mengele…I’ve never really expected monumental feats from either Carlson or Nootbar, so neither one of them stand out to me one way or the other way. And Helsley has a past history of being ultra reliable, so he’s simply doing what he’s been able to showcase in the past.
I didn’t list Gray, Gibson, and Lynn in the surprise category because they are all three doing what I thought they would do, which is to eat innings and sometimes do it with very high quality. They are the reason 2024 looks better than 2023 so far. Hat tip to Mo on those signings.
Yeah, I mentioned to Pugs that Johnny hit the trifecta with those three. He still retains the ability to be a sneaky rascal…Haha!
Top 5 Surprises:
1. Siani
2. Pages
3. Kitty
4. Fernandez
5. BurlyTop 5 Disappointments:
1. Arenado
2. Goldy
3. Walker
4. Gorman
5. Noot5 guys we basically expected to amount to 0 WAR at best. Then 5 guys we probably hoped to give us close to 20 WAR. That’s the difference between middling and being in the division lead right now. Sure would be nice to have those 5 guys starring.
Great list, Jnevel…….except for one. Michael Siani has to be included in the top 5, as I believe he was somewhat of a longshot to even make the club this past March. I would remove Helsley, as his stellar results thus far are not all that surprising.
I realized after I posted that I forgot about Fernandez. I should have included him in the honorable mentions for good surprises.
To me, Winn is the biggest positive surprise. He made the jump up very quickly. I did not expect he’d be a well above average hitter already. It’s shocking. Having that out of him has helped compensate for the poor performances.
With Siani, he was already the best outfielder in minor league baseball. Seeing him do that at the major league level is a positive, but not too surprising. He has hit a little better than I expected. He’s still bad. But I expected him to be .450-.500 OPS bad. The regular reps are likely helping him. It’s still surprising to me that the Reds just let him go. There should always be a place for this elite of defense.
I had trouble placing Nootbaar. He’s been good when he’s been on the field. But he’s mostly not been on the field. With his injury history, some of that was expected. In the end, I just wasn’t sure what to do with him.
And lastly, I didn’t put Burleson in my top 5 because I expected him to be a good hitter. He is a good hitter. He just makes some poor swing choices. He got a little better at that this year (although he seems to have reverted back some lately). I like his first pitch aggression. I don’t love his continuous aggression after that. He needs to learn to be patient and walk some of the time. He’s slightly better defensively than I expected this year. The weight he lost is helping there. He’s still bad. But a little less bad.
I will go with Winn, Siani, Fernandez, Kitty and Gibson as my “surprise” list. With Winn, I figured he was the shortstop of the future and would play like this at some point, but thought it would be in a year or two. Siani I knew nothing about, and him on the list is due to seizing an opportunity and saving us big time in center field. He hasn’t hit much, but that defense has been huge. I hated the Kittredge-Palacios deal, and had never seen Kitty pitch. First time I saw him with that slow sort of nonchalant delivery I thought “who is this guy – he looks half asleep out there. We gave up Palacios for this??” But he was lights out early – a little roughed up since but still very good. Fernandez, the “Rule 5 guy”, is a great find. And Gibson has not only usually been effective, but it sounds like he has mentored some of the younger pitchers as well.
Like everyone, Goldy and Arenado top the list of disappointments. Gorman as well – he seems to have regressed like Walker, who I will add, and round out with Nootbaar. With Nooty it is mostly injury, and he could return to have a big second half.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.