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The avg player budget for all 10 Centrals teams today is 126mil (EOY 40man).
The CHC are at 204.6mil, highest of all central clubs. The avg of the other 9 Central player budgets is 117.3mil.
Yeah, those Angels just couldn’t put anything together despite having what appeared to be a formidable lineup that featured a still servicable Albert Pujols along with a matinee starring both Godzilla and King Kong. Nothing’s guaranteed. Especially when you’re saddled with a rotation that’s almost as effective as a screen door on a submarine.
GameCard – I agree. Catcher should be fine with a Crooks/Pages tandem and Bernal on the 40-man at Memphis. They just need to sort out the outfield and starting pitching situation. But those are two big areas to sort. I hope Scott and Walker both can find a way to hit better. Walker needs to hit a lot better. July was better for him – vast improvement. But he’s got to be even a little better than he was in July and that was by far his best month. Scott has been going the other way for a few months now.
Says our resident Doomsayer! A year and a half ago there was no way we were ever going to produce a competent starting pitching candidate and now we have 3 that are there. None is great. But still 3 number 3 or 4 starters. This last offseason you said that the team this season had a greater than 70% chance of winning less than 70 games. Well, I guess the verdict is still out on that one. But everything is not hopeless Bling. They’ll be fine at catcher. But if you want to complain about the outfield, you’re more than entitled to do so.
Walker did enough in his opening year to see that he’s not totally devoid of talent. Lots of players have finally got it in their age 24 or 25 seasons. Maybe he would be better served in Memphis, but I’m also ok with giving him more run in St Louis. Unless the FO is going to spend $50M+ it’s going to be a rebuilding year, anyway.
2022 was probably their best lineup, but it was also Goldschmidt’s best year as a Cardinal and probably Arenado’s best year….they still had holes in the lineup when Gorman played 2nd, DeJong when he played SS he hit .157, and O’Neil, Nootbar and Carlson all struggled to make contact in the OF….Bader was hitting probably close to a career high .256 before he was traded.
That team also had pretty good starting pitching, which has really dropped off in recent years for a variety of reasons…Just this year Liberatore is their only pitcher with a sub 4 ERA at 3.96
2022 rotation
Mikolas …….12 wins 13 losses 3.29 ERA
Wainwright..11 wins 12 losses 3.71 ERA
Montgomery..6 wins 3 losses 3.11 ERA
Quintana……..3 wins 2 losses…2.01 ERAMud said
I don’t see where we have a position available for a big bat. 2B belongs to Saggese, and eventually Weatherholt. 3B is going to be aplit between Arenado and Donovan. LF is apparently going to Herrera and probably Burleson, CF goes to VS II and RF goes to Walker until Josh Baez forces his way up to St. Louis. Siani is OPSing close to .700 now. Find a place for hin at least as a fourth or fifth outfielder. His deffenae elite. I don’t foresee any big moves this coming offseason except for Gorman getting traded for pitching and nobody knows how that will turn oit. IMO, our best chance for offensive improvement is Bernal (now the Cardinals 3rd best prospect), a consistently improving Josh Baez, and of course, Weatherholt.
I think this unfortunately is committing to being average again unless you are dreaming on some major improvements from guys which likely sets us up for disappointment again. Most of these guys are average starters with Wetherholt and Herrera having All Star upside and Donovan and Winn being above average already. This team needs more high quality players rather than more average players. StlCard25 is right on track with his analysis. Excellent teams don’t collect average talents, instead they consolidate the value into a few much higher than average performers. Gains in value aren’t linear as it is harder and harder to find players that are that much better than average, while there are plenty of average players available. Using WAR as an example, 3 2 WAR players aren’t as valuable as a single 6 WAR player as there are only so many lineup spots to fill.
I’ll also say there is no point in penciling many of those guys like Saggasse, Walker, Siani into a lineup/roster spot as none are even guaranteed to be on the big league club as none has shown they deserve it. There isn’t really a position beyond SS with Winn I would say pencil it in for 2026 as I would be trying to consolidate average players to find talent. I most likely have a spot for Herrera, Donovan, and Wetherholt (assuming he is ready), but Herrera and Donovan do have the most trade value and would be the easiest way to upgrade the rotation. I really like Donny and wouldn’t want to have to trade him, but we aren’t getting a valuable #3 for Nolan Gorman and some spare change. Gorman’s value would be very low like Carlson level after the season.
Gamecard said
Catcher is not a gaping hole IMO.
Jnevel said
I agree
Bling said
You guys crack me up.
Definitely not today. Pages is a complete black hole in the lineup. I think we have to assume Crooks is the starting catcher like Bling said unless they go with Herrera to start 2026 until Crooks / Bernal are fully ready. When you combine offense + defense, Herrera is a major upgrade overall at C over Pages despite the downgrade in defense. Ivan Herrera’s wRC+ lead over Pages looks like Aaron Judge compared to the average MLB player. There is no way Pages is going to provide more value defensively than Herrera would to make up for a Judge sized gap.
I am a little concerned about Crooks despite wanting him to be the 2026 starting C as he is swinging and missing a lot. I still haven’t caught up with the Wednesday with Walton, but I believe Kyle discussed this. Crooks though I think overall would already most likely be an upgrade over Pages. Bernal I am more excited about long term as his underlying data shows a big league quality bat with above average defense according to scouting reports.
In terms of the free agents available, Tucker is by far and away the best of the class, but no way the Cards are touching the $400+ million he wants. Alonso is going to be too expensive as well. Arraez I don’t want as he is very overrated for the value he actually brings as he is only a singles hitter who plays horrible defense and isn’t a good baserunner.
There are some good SP on the market in Dylan Cease, Frambler Valdez, Michael King, Ranger Suarez. It really depends on how quick the team wants to compete and Dewitt’s willingness to spend for one of those guys. Cease and Valdez will get quite big contracts and maybe Suarez as well.
On the hitting side, Eugenio Suarez and Bo Bichette are maybe in the middle range, although with Bichette likely looking for a opt out incentives heavy contract to re-enter the market if he players very well again.
I think most everyone undervalues defense and overvalues offense. And that’s ok when someone is a right fielder and they have the ball hit to them 2-7 times a game. But when they are a catcher and they call every pitch and receive every pitch and make several other plays a game, defense vastly outweighs offense IMO anyway. 4 at bats is nothing compared to the value a catcher brings or at least can bring. That’s why Herrera isn’t a catcher anymore. Pages and Crooks (and Bernal at some point) are far better than him there.
On a side note, my point was that 70% Crooks + 30% Pages is better than 80% Pages + 20% Pozo. I think part of Pages’ issue is fatigue. He’s never played this much in the past. His bat has taken a nosedive over the last 45 days. And it wasn’t great to start with.
ATM you need to get over the Herrera catching thing. Its over. The org prefers Pozo back there over Herrera. They seem to be hoping he can provide some offense from a corner outfield slot where we currently don’t get any. That is a good idea and I am sure they are sticking with it.
The idea that we can assume Crooks can be a starting catcher in ML when he hasn’t played an inning at that level is not realistic. He hits decently in AAA, but the 27% K rate is almost certain to be worse in ML, as is the 8% BB rate and the .329 OBP. The 64 SBs allowed in 65 games is also concerning since it will probably be worse also.
Bernal and Josh Baez could improve the offense, cut they’re both borderline ready. I’m think that the Cardinals will keep thme both at AAA all of next year so that, if there’s a work stoppage in 2027, they can still play minor league ball. (I’m not completely sure of this, but I don’t think they can play if they’re on the 40 man roster when a possible stoppage begins.)
2027 is going to be about Arenado running out the clock and several of our prospects getting better such as Roby getting over his TJ surgery, Hjerpe working himself back to form, Matthews getting ready, maybe the final year of patience for Hence, Ixan Henderson, Jesus Baez, Blaze Jordan, etc.
The Cardinals should be back to their winning ways by 2027, and really competitive by 2028. But, IMHO, the biggest things to look forward to in 2026 will be continued maturity of Pallante and Liberatore. McGreevy looks like he’s already got his head screwed on pretty tight.
Dylan Cease looked pretty good yesterday (Sunday). Can’t understand why he hasn’t pitched better in San Diego. I wouldn’t be at all surprised if the Cardinals take a chance and sign him this offseason unless, of course, he thinks he can get trick some other ballclub into overpaying for what is now an unproven pitcher..
Bling said
ATM you need to get over the Herrera catching thing. Its over.
Ha maybe, but I think there is probably a coin flips chance Herrera is the Opening Day catcher in 2026. The orgs messaging has been they want Herrera at DH and the field for now to avoid re-injury risks. That could be a way to skirt around telling Herrera he isn’t going to C, but Herrera does seem to think he will be behind the plate in 2026. I hope they are at least giving Herrera good info rather than appeasing him as Herrera will need to spend the offseason prepping for whatever role he will primarily play. Now I do think Herrera will have a short lease in 2026 pending Crooks/Bernal’s progress.
Catcher is the one position we have to just roll with the internal options I think. We have 4 catchers / former catchers on the current roster and 2 of the best 5 or so prospects for the team are C in AAA and AA. Trading for or signing a catcher wouldn’t be a great use of the team resources as the opportunity cost would be that money / trade asset going to the rotation, upgrading a corner OF, etc. I think you have to assume one of Herrera or Crooks will be good enough to be the starting C in 2026 and Bernal maybe not too far behind.
I think most everyone undervalues defense and overvalues offense.
I generally favor defense and like Winn and Scott where they are, but there comes a point where the hole is too big. I also think Pages defensive prowess is vastly over stated. Depending on the defensive metric source, Pages has been either 2 or 4 runs above average when you add up all his contributions behind the plate including game calling.
Herrera is not going to be catching next year. I would definitely like to see Crooks and either Pages or Pozo as the righty compliment.
Scott needs to figure somethings out at the plate next year or I think it might be time yo just admit he’s just a 4th OF.
Far as MOTO-Impact bat I’m not seeing it. If they take a flyer on someone it will likely be a bounce back OF guy not asking for a long deal or a ton of money like the big boys. Same with the pitching except we will likely grab a guy with some age and not that expensive to bridge a gap. Think we could use some bullpen help with what we lost this year.
Jimmy Crooks only has a .763 OPS in AAA. That translates into a roughly .600 OPS in MLB. He probably needs another season at AAA before making the MLB roster. However, the Cardinals have Bernal right behind him, and he probably needs to be promoted to AAA.
One of those two probably ends up the headliner in a trade for pitching.
3 2 WAR players aren’t as valuable as a single 6 WAR player as there are only so many lineup spots to fill.
It depends. I would rather have a lineup where everybody averages 2-3 WAR than a lineup with one superstar and three guys with negative WAR.
The Cardinals have Walker with negative WAR and Pages with 0 WAR.
And the good news – it doesn’t actually cost that much to upgrade from players with negative WAR, whereas the cost to upgrade from a 3 WAR player to a 6 WAR player can be substantial.
Pages bat is in Kozma territory. A platoon bat with Crooks needs to hit lefties and that’s not Pages.
Jimmy Crooks only has a .763 OPS in AAA. That translates into a roughly .600 OPS in MLB. He probably needs another season at AAA before making the MLB roster.
I don’t see it that way if he hits his way on the the roster. Also consider there might be a different hitting approach than in years past. He’s currently sporting his lowest OBP and BA as a pro. So there’s been some sellout for a little more grip and rip and run production. Hence the higher K total.
Something has to give because while he might need a bit more seasoning in AAA. He likely has not much else to prove there. Can’t speak for his defense.
Jnevel
Says our resident Doomsayer! A year and a half ago there was no way we were ever going to produce a competent starting pitching candidate and now we have 3 that are there. None is great. But still 3 number 3 or 4 starters.
Who are all these #3 starters on our team?
We only have ONE starter that has a slightly above-average ERA in Liberatore. I’d rather they start over completely on the rotation than make due with what we have.
To really be competitive, we probably need to have Libertore penciled in as our #5.
Free agent-wise, I see the Cardinals adding someone like Chris Bassitt. Maybe Quintana again also.
I’d like to see Tyler Mahle targeted. Likewise, some guys like Gallen, Dustin May.
I don’t see any position players added. Maybe a catcher so we aren’t pushing Crooks too fast.
The problem with Crooks is that he would be another LH bat which is the last thing this lineup needs right now. At least Bernal is a switch hitter.
As for FA hitters I would not count on Kyle Tucker or Pete Alonso becoming Cardinals. More likely targets for 2026 are Harrison Bader or Randal Grichuk.
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