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GScottar – I agree with you that they won’t sign a high-priced free agent starter and I agree with the Cardinals that they shouldn’t. Why invest a giant sum of your budget in a bet that only breaks even about 20% of the time? Rarely do teams “win” in these kinds of deals. You are paying for past performance and pitchers get hurt a lot. There are certainly some examples of these pitchers pitching to near the value of their deals, but not a lot of them. Very few examples of pitchers exceeding the value of these deals.
I am not so sure that your 20% number is correct. It seems like teams would get “break even” value at least 50% of the time if you tracked the top 5-10 deals for pitchers each year. At the very least, I would imagine they accrue value at or above the value of the deal for the first several years. I’d be curious to find out, though.
Also, very rarely does any free agent exceed the value of their deal…they are getting to free agency after their peak so it’s pretty much stacked against them. That would go for just about anyone.
Anyway, I would argue that if we got 75% of the value on a $200M pitcher, that $150M pitcher would still be a lot more valuable than what we’ve been running out there lately. As we have room in the budget, I don’t see why we wouldn’t spend it. The Dewitt family inheritance means nothing to me.
Just for fun, I went through the top 10 free agent pitcher signings by AAV the last five years…err, four years because Sportrac wouldn’t let me go any further. I would say that well more than 20% of them have returned average or better value to their signing team. This past offseason looks like a bit of a dud compared to others, IMO. But they could still turn around. 2022 looks excellent. 2021 is solid, but not a ton of money was spent. 2020 is not quite as good.
2023: Verlander, DeGrom, Rodon, Bassitt, Kershaw, Martin Perez, Taijuan Walker, Taillon, Eovaldi, Kodai Senga
2022: Scherzer, Verlander, Stroman, Ray, Gausman, Rodon, Syndergaard, Kershaw, Eduardo Rodriguez, Jon Gray
2021: Bauer, Gausman, Stroman, Charlie Morton, Kluber, Smyly, Garrett Richards, Mike Minor, James Paxton, Adam Wainwright
2020: Cole, Strasburg, Wheeler, Ryu, Kuechel, Hamels, Bumgarner, Roark, Pineda, Porcello
Bottom line, the teams that spent money on free agent starters generally didn’t waste their money. There were some misses, but overall a lot of success as well. Even on the longer term deals, most look to have turned out fine.
The other question to ask is do you trust this front office to pick the right free agent starter to splash the cash on? I don’t. When is the last time Mo had a successful FA signing that cost a significant amount of money? Holliday? Beltran?
Mo is a little better at trades than FA so this seems like the safer route to me.
This FO expects failure in their pitching acquisitions whether it be by signing or trading. It’s why they prefer their own known commodities, or when forced to, acquire low hanging fruit. They lessen the risk by lessening the $ commitment.
STLCards – I agree that there are some good deals listed above. But the top of the market deals were often bad. I guess I’m thinking of top 3 starters on the board each year.
So for 2023 that was DeGrom, Rodon, and Verlander. Those deals all look pretty bad right now. Maybe woefully bad.
For 2022, it was Scherzer, Verlander, and Stroman. Verlander worked out great. The Scherzer deal looks pretty bad. Stroman was fairly poor last year, but is one of the best pitchers in the NL this year so that one still remains to be seen, but overall, it still wasn’t worth the $/WAR the Cubs spent. But I get that we have $ to spend so I can understand that argument.
Then there’s Bauer and Strasburg up there too. Patrick Corbin and Chris Sale weren’t long ago either. Plus the Kuechel and Bumgarner deals. Those all look terrible now. It’s just a big risk. I’d prefer to go after the Efflin’s, Eovaldi’s, and Matz’s of the world where you don’t sink the ship when you shoot your harpoon because the whale you went after was never big enough to pull you under. But heh, it’s all about how comfortable you are with that risk. Some think you should always go for it. And they’re right if they can just hook the right whale every time.
Side note . . . Jordan Montgomery is now like the 8th most valuable pitcher in the NL. That’s the clear definition of a #1, right? Mikolas is around 15-20 heading into his start today so with a great outing, we may have 2 #1’s on our staff. Anything is possible.
Can’t imagine what Ohtani will bring in. The guy is incredible. You could almost justify paying him $75M a year, as you are getting an elite pitcher as well as a top tier bat.
An organization has to be extremely well financed and fiscally sound to get him. The Giants might be a player in his negotiators. No way our club will swim in those waters though.
I would just like to see us work out a deal with Montgomery before he becomes a free agent. But he will most likely test the market – who wouldn’t in today’s economic environment?
Stroman was fairly poor last year, but is one of the best pitchers in the NL this year so that one still remains to be seen, but overall, it still wasn’t worth the $/WAR the Cubs spent. But I get that we have $ to spend so I can understand that argument.
Stroman has been worth 6 bWAR for $50M which is plenty good enough. He’d have been a Godsend for our rotation right now.
I guess what I’m getting at is that while a few deals have been disasters, most are not. The Matz and Leake type nibbles have such huge down side that even though they may not be big risk individually, they have added up to a pretty big whiff overall. Given the environment we are in today, I’d like to see a little more aggression with some free agent pitching this offseason. There are enough top arms out there via free agency and trade that we should be bringing in at least our top 2 starters for next year, if not 3 of the top 4. That won’t deplete the farm or even break the bank if done wisely. Just…no more $45M-70M gambles on back end starters, please.
4.2 FWAR for Stroman last two seasons which trails both Mikolas and Montgomery. So was it worth it? Maybe. I don’t think it’s a bad deal. It definitely beats what we got out of Matz. But there are lots of better deals out there too. And there are many examples of a whole lot worse because pitchers just break so easily.
The Cardinals should forget about players like Ohtani and immediately go after the second tier once the seaason ends. Try to sign three #2’s rather than one #1.
Try to sign three #2’s rather than one #1.
Let’s be real and realize this team isn’t going anywhere with the starters they run out to the mound every game (except Montgomery’s games). You simply can’t expect to win a lot of games going forward. The only trades that Cards should make is for young starters with solid #2 potential. After Mikolas who will be a certainty for the 2024 rotation? We haven’t had a #1 in a few years anyway and perhaps one of the new faces will exceed expectations.
The Matz/Leake type signings just completely stifle our roster. Not only do those type of pitchers rarely give you a decent ROI but they take up a roster sport for years that could go to someone else.
Some say that giving Matz $44M isn’t a big risk but when you spread it out over four years it becomes a roster albatross. Why? Because the Cardinals will always refuse to cut bait on a failed contract. You can count on it. Carpenter, Leake, Fowler, Miller, DeJong, Matz, etc… I wish we would have just given Matz his $44M in one or two years so he would already be gone but we still have 2 1/2 years of him taking up a roster spot. That is poor roster management.
I totally agree with LA and NY in that we need to target as many number 2 starters as we can, preferably by trade. Mikolas is a solid number 3 or 4 and Libby can be a solid number 5. Montgomery would be a solid 3 if he re-signs. Acquiring some number 2’s would be a wiser investment than throwing a gazillion dollars at one number 1 in my opinion.
Speaking of a #1…….how much is Ohtani going to command in the off-season? I think a team would be crazy to give him ten years.
8 years – $400 million?
Mike Trout suggested Ohtani will command more than $500 million.
I will assume the Cardinals will trade Montgomery at the deadline, and their ask will be the best starting pitching prospect a team has at AAA.
We’ll know shortly whether the Cardinals are buyers or sellers. While I think the answer is obvious, it doesn’t mean the Cardinals will agree.
This is the same front office that came into the season thinking they’re pitching was workable. Doubling down on that faulty evaluation wouldn’t surprise me.
I think the group here has a very negative view of Cards pitchers compared to those of other teams. We somehow believe our pitchers to be worse than they actually are.
For instance, by FWAR, Wainwright, Montgomery, and Mikolas were #2’s in 2022 (by number 2, I mean 30-60 range of starters in MLB). That’s really good. Now the others weren’t very good last year. 4’s and 5’s.
For 2023, Montgomery is a #1. Mikolas is a high #2. Flaherty is a #3. Liberatore will probably end up as a #4. Yes, Matz, Wainwright, and Woodford are all bad. So overall, we aren’t real great because of those last 3. But I believe a lot of people short sell Mikolas and Montgomery. They are both quality pitchers compared to other pitchers out there.
We 100% need better starting pitchers. And we definitely need to invest in some next year. It would be really nice to sign Montgomery long-term but I also think he’s more likely to be traded for a good AAA starter and a thrown in lottery ticket. We can dream of a world where we sign 3 number 2’s but that isn’t likely given everyone else is trying to sign them too. So I think it’s best to use our trade capital and try to find high end minor league starters to trade for (at least 2) and then sign at least one good starting pitcher who is probably in that #2 range. And then give a one year contract to someone at the lower end of the scale – like a Rich Hill type signing.
And then sign Ohtani. That’s all I’m asking for.
For 2023, Montgomery is a #1. Mikolas is a high #2. Flaherty is a #3.
Mikolas has a 4.44 ERA and 1.38 WHIP.
Flaherty has a 4.95 ERA and 1.60 WHIP.
Those are not #2 & #3 starters. Those are #4 & #5 starters.
Now now LACardFan,
You should know by now those stats (ERA and WHIP) don’t mean anything anymore. What really counts is a pitcher’s FJLR and his -gWOF and his +WRZ and his HODZ and his -BRUTZ.
Ohtani will be 29 shortly, so his huge contract will take him well into mid 30s. I figure he’s an lnjury waiting to happen. First year shoulder trouble crops up and it’s a losing battle from then onward. Somebody will end up trying to get $500 million out of a DH.
Jnevel, our overall pitching staff is ranked 22nd in ERA in all of MLB. There might be other stats that say otherwise but I don’t think this board is undervaluing this staff. This staff stinks.
If we look at ERA alone, then I agree that Mikolas is a #4. But we use advanced stats to compare players across teams because Mikolas has had to pitch with Yepez and Walker in the outfield for half a season.
Note that had Edman been in CF last night like he has been for a month, Maldonado’s double would very likely have been an out and 2 less runs would have crossed the plate for the Astros. And the likely effect on that is that Mikolas goes at least 6 innings and earns a quality start. Now that ball was still hit very hard so I’m not giving Mikolas a pass, but just pointing out how much of a difference good defense makes on a pitcher’s ERA.
Mo should strongly consider trading Liberatore this year or this winter if he wants to find any takers at all. The reason is that he still has an option year left.
His MLB career line is not extensive, but what there is is horrible.
ERA 5.81. WHIP 1.694. Line vs RH hitters .321/.400/.558/958.Nobody is delusional enough to be thinking, yeah, we can carry this guy on the ML roster all season. So do it this year or this winter. Somebody might think he could revive in an organization that does a better job with pitchers.
#STLCards rotation ERA: 4.90 with .295 opponent avg (29th/30 teams)
Class-AAA rotation ERA: 5.39 with .298 opponent avg (20th/20 teams)
Class-AA rotation ERA: 4.83 with .270 opponent avg (7th/10 teams)
This should be beneath #Cardinals baseball.https://t.co/sQjOi99ogv
— Ben Frederickson (@Ben_Fred) July 2, 2023
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