2024 Minor League game thread Week 15 – 7/22-28

I noticed Trent Baker mentioned above. It reminded me of the interest with which I read Blake Newberry’s scouting report in the Trent Baker article for this year’s pre-season top prospects series. Blake pointed out a serious impediment to Baker’s success as he advanced into the upper levels, and suggested what might be done about it. I do not know if he was right or wrong, or what was done or not done, but Baker has not been very successful this year in AA.

In my mind, he is lumped in with prospects like Rajcic and Nunez. Pitchers who, unlike many others, appear to have the physical durability to be starting pitchers. In my mind, this is the first bar to be cleared, but the Cardinals development system seems to often leave it for last, especially with the hot prospect types. The problem is that the Cardinals system has absolutely no success developing these guys into the sort of reliable workhorse mid rotation starters that are the backbone of a rotation, day in, day out. At best, they end up with a McGreevey, or some of the laundry list guys.

Blake’s report on Baker is one of the free articles from the series. I encourage anyone interested to give it a read.

TCN 2024 St. Louis Cardinals Prospect # 30 – Trent Baker

Baker is only starting because 3/5 of the Springfield rotation is injured

Yes, exactly. We have already discussed elsewhere the likelihood of those three ever having an impact in STL. Those not injured are unlikely to have an impact either, IMO, Which is the problem I refer to here.

Yes, the content available to members is incredible.

I looked up the Baker article to post the link but did not re-read it just now. IIRC, though, Blake failed to include the need to ‘add a few ticks’ in his report. He needs to be careful about omitting that from any report on any pitching prospect or the other analysts will not let him sit at their table in the lunch room.

It boils down to different definitions of being optimistic and being realistic. Hence looked great in A level ball as a lot of guys do. He moved up to AA and was not effective any more. He did not get any better through that second half last year. There was talk about having him add muscle, bulk to his frame. I don’t know what he did or didn’t do over the winter, but this year he was having success in AA. Then he ran into arm trouble and it has been since the end of May that he last pitched, besides a couple one inning trials in early June. Coming up on two months. There was talk of a side session back before the futures game. I haven’t heard much else.

Brian, it is my view that it does not matter if a pitcher can be effective if doing so requires him to push his arm and body beyond what it is able to tolerate. Hence’s situation looks to me exactly like that. He now has had to back off and try to figure out how to be effective pitching in a way his arm can handle before he tore it up for good. It is why I think that being realistic means it is up to him now to show whether he can be effective against upper level hitters pitching in a way that his arm can tolerate. That will take the better part of a season to establish, once he is back on the mound and worked up to a regular rotation slot. In my mind, it is absolutely not certain, and very probably not even likely that that will happen. I see no point in hanging a top prospect tag around his neck unless and until. Doing otherwise is just hoping and praying. It is playing make believe as I have said.

I don’t know CC. He is at 95 IP. He did 125 last year and 100 the year before that. He is throwing the same number of pitches and facing the same number of batters as he did in A level earlier. It just isn’t getting him as far into games. He may follow the Hence path and have trouble in AA the rest of this year and then look better next year. Hopefully their paths will diverge after that.

That is great news Hence is healthy enough to be considered for a start. I imagine they will have him on a limited pitch count. Fingers crossed everything goes better this time.

Bling, off the top of my head without looking, I would guess Lin, Bedell, McGreevey, Hjerpe, Savacool, and maybe Saladin. I would not have guessed Cornwell. Rincon, Davila, and Henderson would all be worth looking at too, but I’m guessing none of them makes that cut due to innings mostly. I bet that’s a lot better than you may have thought. Of course I could be wrong. 3 out of 6 is a bit of a high standard for minor league guys who often have some innings limitations (which everyone does – not just the Cardinals).

McGreevey and Bedell are your 2 guys then. They have been answering the bell and pitching well. Bedell is still adjusting to AAA a bit, but he’s still been pretty solid.

The Cardinals will need to add a whole lot of guys to the roster by season’s end to protect them from rule 5: McGreevey, Bedell, Granillo, Hence, Roby, and Saggese come to mind immediately. But there are others that will be considered.