- This topic has 42 replies, 15 voices, and was last updated 2 years, 9 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Edman is a ball in play guy, he needs stuff to fall in. He’s low on BB% and needs his BA to support his OBP.
He needs a significantly higher than avg BAbip to support his plus seasons. Avg BAbip or under, and so is his season at the plate.
So far, Winn does not appear to be the answer. But I’m sure you numbers guys can find persuasive proof otherwise.
Tommy Edman is a platoon player. Keep in mind, roughly 75% of MLB pitchers are right-handed.
For his career:
vs RHP: 1782 PAs – .258/.316/.378/.614
vs LHP: 605 PAs – .277/.320/.488/.808Nolan Gorman:
vs RHP: 668 PAs – .230/.310/.456/.766
vs LHP: 109 PAs – .250/.358/.446/.804Gorman is actually better vs left-handers, yet the Cardinals keep insisting on sitting him whenever a left-handed pitcher starts the game.
Brendan Donovan:
vs RHP: 699 PAs – .287/.381/.420/.801
vs LHP: 140 PAs – .259/.381/.285/.666Donovan actually has the exact same OBP vs left-handers as he does against right-handers. His power just falls off a cliff.
Lars Nootbaar:
vs RHP: 731 PAs – .246/.353/.433/.796
vs LHP: 208 PAs – .254/.351/.396/.747There is no statistical difference for Nootbaar for left-handed vs right-handed pitching in terms of OBP, he just loses power against left-handers.
So, what can we conclude from this?
1. The Cardinals analytics department needs to be fired
2. Edman is actually worse at hitting right-handers than three left-handed batters are at hitting left-handed pitching
3. In terms of OBP, you want all three left-handers playing every day
4. Gorman should never sit against left-handed pitchingThere is another conclusion that can be drawn from the data above:
5. Edman should never bat leadoff – both Donovan and Nootbaar always offer superior OBP
CIF – Winn is a 21 year old kid who has played in 28 major league games.
A little early to draw any conclusions.LA Cards. Thanks for the data. But we shouldn’t make inferences from very small sample sizes. I sincerely doubt that Gorman is better against left handed pitchers. I believe in the minors he was much worse. So why go by 104 plate appearances? Especially when some of those were carefully selected to be lefties they thought Gorman could hit well because of their stuff?
Aside from Edman, all of those players have really small sample sizes against left handed pitching. It’s nice data to look at, but making an inference that the analytics team needs to be fired is unfair. Heck, they may be the ones that helped boost that data by selecting the exact left handers those guys should face.
Jnevel – Gorman is the only one in that group who has a statistically different OBP facing one type of pitcher versus the other – and he is better facing left-handed pitchers!!!
My post was really to point out that Edman is now and always has been a platoon player. The Cardinals ignore it because he is a switch hitter.
You can argue sample size for the left-handed hitters individually, but how about in aggregate? As a whole, they are significantly better against left-handers than Edman is against right-handers. In aggregate, they have 450 plate appearances against left-handers. The idea they need to sit solely because they are left-handed is preposterous.
If it was their OBP that was suffering, I would say sit them. But it’s not. It’s the power. That suggests that it’s much more flukiness than anything.
Now, Edman’s power disappearance from the left-side of the plate has a reason – because it’s his weak side. He can’t generate the power that he can from the right side. And there is significant evidence to suggest Edman should not be used as anything other than a platoon player.
Dononvan’s power disappearance? That seems much more attributable to small sample size misfortune.
I don’t really disagree with your main point on Edman batting leadoff although I do disagree that Edman is worse overall against left handed pitching. He’s definitely better by OPS against lefties and has a lot more history to show that. But I have no issues with choosing Donovan or Nootbaar to lead off even against a lefty because both of them take lots of walks and get on base better than Edman.
I think Edman will should be their CF anyway and not take at bats away from anyone you mentioned above. He’s proven to be elite out there and we need his defense – especially if we’re committed to playing Walker in RF.
It was explained to me by someone who knows a lot more about baseball than I do that Edman is a way above average player. I don’t see it but have nothing to counter this. His current .688 OPS doesn’t make me a big fan.
For me the question is whether Edman is an everyday player with a position or a UT. I don’t think his bat plays as a lineup regular. His OPS+ has been significantly below 100 3 years out of 5 with the high point 5 years ago. There’s no point pretending he’s going to start doing something that he hasn’t done yet.
He does make a great super UT and adds massive defensive depth with his positional versatilityI do disagree that Edman is worse overall against left handed pitching. He’s definitely better by OPS against lefties and has a lot more history to show that.
I didn’t say that Edman is worse against left-handed pitching. I said he is worse as a left-handed hitter (facing right-handed pitching), which is 75% of the pitchers.
especially if we’re committed to playing Walker in RF.
I would argue we should not be committed to playing Walker in RF, we should be committed to playing him as a DH until his defense improves.
Speaking of Walker……did anybody see him botch the flyball in RF during the Thursday game with Milwaukee. Chip Caray even said it was a ball that should be caught.
Bling, it’s not all about WRC+ or OPS+ when you’re comparing up the middle defenders. Being under “100” as a 1B or 3B or RF or LF is bad. Those players are generally bigger and stronger, but less agile. Therefore, average for them is around 110ish. For SS, 2B, C, and CF, average is more like 90. So the overall average is 100. Edman is an up the middle defender and an elite one at that. So he’s a better than average player if he can run an OPS+ of above 90. He’s elite if he’s above 100 like he was much of last season.
If we put him in CF, there are just nine CF’s over the past 5 years with 1000 plate appearances who have over 100 WRC+ and 3 of those 9 are bad defenders. The others are Trout, Springer, Julio Rodriguez, Marte, Luis Robert, and Cedric Mullins. Sure, we’d love to have one of those guys as our CF, but we don’t have them. Everyone else is under 100 (except Reynolds, Nimmo, and Laureano who are all bad defenders).
“So far, Winn does not appear to be the answer. But I’m sure you numbers guys can find persuasive proof otherwise.”
I do not have persuasive proof otherwise, but will say that it is far too early to make a call on Masyn Winn. The kid just turned 21 earlier this year. His defense already plays. He hit well at AAA this year, and as he gains experience and matures he should be able to hit major league pitching.
I would like him to be more aggressive when he is in a hitter’s count. It seems like when he gets ahead in the count, he is thinking that now he can just wait it out and take the walk. Thus he has let some pitches he could put a good swing on go by. But that is likely inexperience and a lack of confidence, which will change as he gets more reps at the top level.
He has the tools to be real good – athletic, great arm, good speed, good range. The talent is there – needs to play.
If we don’t play Walker in the field, how is his defense supposed to improve?
1. He needs to dedicate his offseason to learning how to catch fly balls
2. Start him at DH 4-5 times per week, let him play RF 1-2 games per weekBut if the Cardinals reach 10 games under .500 by June, by all means, let him play RF all he wants.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.