Hi stlcard25 – I appreciate the analysis. However, there are some nuances to be factored in the analysis. First, I have only ever looked at Memphis hitters joining the Cardinals roster, and haven’t looked at other teams. I would not include Contreras and Arenado in this analysis at all. Similarly, Walker and Scott made the MLB roster without having played at AAA. I would also exclude them from the analysis.
I indicated that I looked for a .150 OPS drop when Memphis hitters make the jump to the major leagues. Thus, I am basing it on AAA experience to their first full year in MLB. The analysis you have seems to include their AAA averages and MLB averages, which is different than what I use my back-of-the-envelop rule for. I use it merely to see if a hitter is ready, not to see if they will ever progress in MLB.
So, let’s look at some examples.
Ivan Herrera:
In 2022, he saw his first real action at Memphis (278 PA) and got a cup of coffee at STL (22) PA. He had a .770 OPS at Memphis and a .302 OPS at St. Louis. Based on my “rule”, I would not have called him up, because I would not expect him to hit.
So, let’s look at 2023. In 2023, he had 375 PAs at Memphis and 44 at STL. He posted a .951 OPS at Memphis and a .760 at STL.
In 2024, Herrera was on the opening day roster as catcher. So, the analysis stops. Herrera did spend time in AAA in 2024, but that was on rehab assignment. The rehab time skews the AAA averages.
Pedro Pages:
Pages is an anomaly. He had 170 PAs at Memphis in 2022, and had a .635 OPS. He then spent all of 2023 in Springfield. In 2024, he only spent 7 games at Memphis (with a .917 OPS), before spending the rest of the season at STL (with a .657 OPS).
He doesn’t fit the model of player development.
Brendan Donovan:
In 2022, he posted an .885 OPS in Memphis (131 PA).
In 2023, he was on the Cardinals opening day roster, and he posted a .773 OPS. He did spend time in Memphis in 2023, but that appears to be a rehab assignment.
Masyn Winn:
In 2023, he had 498 PAs at Memphis, and posted an .834 OPS. He then had 137 PAs with the Cardinals and posted a .467 OPS.
In 2024, he was on the opening day roster and posted a .730 OPS.
Lars Nootbaar:
In 2021, Lars Nootbaar posted a .900 OPS in 136 PA’s in Memphis. He then posted a .739 OPS in 124 PA’s in STL.
In 2022, he made the Cardinals opening day roster and posted a .788 OPS.
Alec Burleson:
In 2022, he posted a .905 OPS in 470 PAs at Memphis. He then posted a .535 OPS at STL.
He then made the opening day roster in 2023, and posted a .691 OPS.
Nolan Gorman:
In 2022, he posted a .915 OPS at Memphis in 188 PAs. He then posted a .721 OPS with the Cardinals in 313 PA’s.
In 2023, he made the opening day roster, and posted an .805 OPS.
Thomas Saggese:
In 2024, he had 528 PAs at Memphis and a .752 OPS. He also had 52 PAs with the Cardinals and posted a .556 OPS. I would not have promoted him, because I would not expect him to hit.
In 2025, he had 189 PAs at Memphis, with an .847 OPS. He also had 295 PAs at St. Louis, with a .641 OPS.
Nathan Church:
In 2025, he had 242 PAs at Memphis with a ..921 OPS. He also had 65 PAs in STL with a .504 OPS.
Jimmy Crooks:
In 2025, he had a .778 OPS in Memphis across 430 PAs. He then posted a .397 OPS in 46 PAs with the Cardinals.
Jose Fermin:
In 2023, he posted an .841 OPS in Memphis across 81 PAs. He then posted a .594 with the Cardinals across 61 PAs.
In 2024, he posted a .924 OPS in Memphis across 240 PAs. He then posted a .438 OPS with the Cardinals in 79 PAs.
In 2025, he posted a .913 OPS in Memphis in 293 PAs. He then posted a .793 OPS with the Cardinals in 70 PAs.
So, what are the takeaways?
– Yes, I still believe in a 150 OPS drop, it doesn’t happen every time, but it does happen most of the time
– I would be very reluctant to promote any hitter who doesn’t OPS at least .900 at Memphis
– The Cardinals keep lowering their standards as to who gets promoted, and it shows on the field