Onto the pitching. I’m going to do all the starters together and all the relievers together just because I’m lazy and I don’t want this to go on forever. And it doesn’t need to because really this was just a bridge to free agency. We should have more to discuss in the near future.
The Cardinals starting pitchers in 2024 had:
XFIP: 3.91
FWAR: 11.6
The Cardinals used 11 starting pitchers. Of all teams in baseball, that was the 8th best XFIP and the 14th most FWAR. Overall, middle of the pack. ERA was 20th though at 4.33. The 5 best in XFIP were Gray (2.82), McGreevey (3.05), Pallante (3.82), Mikolas (4.08), and Gibson (4.19). Thompson was last at near 5.00 with Matz just a hair better. Batting Average on Balls in Play suggests that Matz was a little unlucky and that McGreevey & Thompson were a little lucky. For WAR, Gray was the only standout starter at 3.8. Mikolas was 2nd at 2.0, Pallante 1.9 (remember he was in the bullpen half the year), Gibson 1.5, Lynn 1.3, Fedde .8 (that’s just his Cardinal’s total), McGreevey .5, Matz .1, and Thompson -.3. Graceffo and Liberatore were both at 0.
Where does that leave us for 2025? The team lost some depth with Gibson and Lynn leaving. However, given that neither was all that good, it may actually be a positive. Pallante came on strong in the 2nd half and often looked like the team’s best pitcher. Fedde was unremarkable, but still generally better than Lynn/Gibson. McGreevey looked really good in limited action. And Gray was outstanding. Had he not had the unfortunate home run luck, he might have been one of the best pitchers in baseball. His XFIP was only behind Chris Sale. Mikolas actually put up a decent XFIP, but he just gives up too much contact. Still, he eats innings and is good about every other start. I don’t think Matz will pick up many starts in 2025 if he’s still on the team, but he might. Overall, assuming they aren’t traded, a rotation of Gray, Pallante, Fedde, Mikolas, and McGreevey probably gets us better results than last year’s group. And with a couple other starters much closer at Memphis (Mathews, Graceffo, Hence, Robberse, Kloffenstein), this could be a really good group. Maybe even just inside the top 10 starting rotations in baseball, but certainly at least top half. If Fedde is traded, that changes the calculus some, but for now, I’m going to assume he stays.
2024 SP: 0
2025 SP: +1
After the adjustment for injuries I made last week, that now puts us at +2 arbitrary points better than the 2024 team.
What are your thoughts TCN? Does McGreevey supplant Matz in the starting rotation? Is Matz even still going to be on the team? Do you feel better about this year’s rotation?