Last position to cover . . . the one that doesn’t play the field at all. Time for a quick dissection of the DH.
Hare are the main DH stats from the 2024 season for all Cardinals who took up the bat and then rested on D:
OPS: .669 (kind of disappointing really)
OAA: You guessed it, ZERO – anything else would be spectacular
FWAR: -1.1
That -1.1 was the 23rd best compared to other teams at the DH position. With 2B, CF, RF, and DH all being 22nd best or worse, there’s an obvious reason this team wasn’t good. But because they were in the top 11 teams at 4 other positions, they somewhat balanced the ship. Burleson led the way with 216 plate appearances. Contreras followed suit with 121, Carpenter with 117, Herrera had 30, Baker 29, Arenado 24, and 34 PA’s went to everyone else. This has been the Cardinals modis of operations for a few seasons now – let the DH be a place to rest everyday players (or as a way to get Burleson out of the outfield when they could do that). On the OPS front, Herrera led the way with a .949, Contreras was at .722, Burleson at .721, Baker at .685, Carpenter at .634, and Arenado had an ugly .439.
Where does that leave us for 2025? I think the team is going to use a more constant DH presence in 2024 and I believe that will be Contreras. Whenever a left-handed starter is on the mound, Contreras will play 1B. Otherwise, he’s the DH. That strategy keeps Contreras more likely to be healthy and in the middle of the lineup. It also lets our young catchers (Herrera and Pages) catch so we can make a determination on what to do with Crooks and Bernal in the future. This should equate to much better numbers from the 2025 DH position than what we got in 2024. The other at bats will likely be given to guys needing an off-day from the field or to Baker or Koperniak if indeed either is on the bench. It’s possible Gorman gets a fair share of at-bats here in the scenario where Arenado stays and Gorman doesn’t have a position. But for my purposes here, I’m going to project most at-bats going to Contreras.
2024 DH: -2
2025 DH: +2
That extra 4 points gives the 2025 squad a +6 advantage over the 2024 squad in my completely arbitrary points. Before I move to pitching though, I need to factor in injuries. 2025 will not actually have as many of the incumbents take as many at bats at their respective positions that I projected just like 2024 didn’t. Guys get hurt and someone else is forced to cover. I built a little bit of that in, but not enough. I’m going to take 5 points away from my total above to account for injuries. Now we’re at +1. Just slightly better than the 2024 squad on offense and in the field. That seems fair to me and is about what I’m expecting.
What are your thoughts TCN? Is Contreras going to be the main DH or do you believe he’s going to primarily play 1B? Will Baker or Koperniak even make the team? What will Gorman’s role be if Arenado isn’t traded?