I have seen a figure of 2.4 WAR for Arenado in 2023. There would be alternative calculations which would vary some. Dollar value per WAR also varies. $6 Million is reasonable, but I have seen everything from just under 5 to 8. So that puts the value of Arenado’s performance at just under $15 Million.
Baseball Reference says he made $35, of which Colorado paid $16, so our cost was $19. That is a loss, but not too bad. $4M. Maybe a sort of OK mid relief guy, or a pretty useful arb eligable guy.
But they have him due to make $35M again in 2024 with Colorado paying only $5M. So, a comparable performance is going to result in $15M+ in the hole. So now we are out a pretty good player. Good enough to make a difference.
NA put up 109 OPS+ and an unexciting 0.3 dWAR. Yes, I know dWAR is suspect, but I note that 0.3 is an order of magnitude or so lower than what he has produced in the past. The large underform defensively isn’t suspect. The 109 OPS+ is a career low other that his rookie year, 10 years ago. 33 year old guys can have a resurgent year, I don’t dispute that. We could gamble on that happening.
I’m not known to be a huge Gorman fan. I am not sold at all. But I think I am mostly not sold on his ability to overcome trying to develop and maintain ML level skills in the Cardinals system, rather than not being sold on his inherent ability. Similar to how I felt about Paul DeJong during the early part of his slide. But he put up 117 OPS+, in what seemed like an off year a lot of the time. He did put up a small negative dWAR, which is probably not horrible for somebody who is not a middle infielder playing middle infield. He produced 2.4 WAR, worth nearly $15M, for min wage.
Mo and the gang need to make some hard decisions, which shouldn’t be all that hard. Do we want to win or give away another puppy dog in a few years.