“Who thinks Luken plays everyday in the bigs?”
I’d say he has a 20-25% chance to be another Luke Voit. (In other words, if someone offered me 2-1 or 5-2 odds there’s NO WAY I’d take it. But at 6-1 or 7-1, then sure.) Maybe a 35-40% chance to be another Matt Adams. Most likely though, he never plays 100 games for anybody.
It’s just not that rare for guys in the minors to have a huge year when they’re three or four years old for their level of competition. Baker’s a good bat, but I don’t think he’s the rare kinda hitting talent who can be an above-average MLB batsman. And as everyone here knows, with his glove/baserunning limitations, he has to really really hit to have any value at all.
“Baker and Burleson both raked in AAA.”
True enough, but Burly was 23 and Baker 26. It’s almost impossible to overstate how important that difference is, when projecting future MLB careers. (And Winn was just 21 of course, so we just don’t know how good a hitter he can be. But he was very good in AAA after his first 50 or 60 ABs.)