Looking at ERA+ marks by the St. Louis Cardinals’ top three pitchers over the Albert Pujols years.
Where we last left this discussion, there seemed no correlation between a top season by three St. Louis Cardinals offensive leaders and the club making the playoffs. My natural curiosity led me from hitting to pitching, which is the subject of this article.
For each season of the last decade, the Albert Pujols years, I selected the Cardinals’ top three starting pitchers based on ERA+, a good summary cross-season measurement. Despite the five-man rotation, I chose three because that is the same sample size previously used for the hitters. That selection will become even more clear later in this article.
For visual clarity, I left pitchers in the same column from year to year.
| Year | ERA+ | ERA+ | ERA+ | |||
| 2001 | Morris | 137 | Williams | 190 | Kile | 140 |
| 2002 | Morris | 117 | Williams | 159 | An Benes* | 144 |
| 2003 | Morris | 110 | Williams | 106 | Stephenson | 90 |
| 2004 | Carpenter | 124 | Suppan | 103 | Marquis | 115 |
| 2005 | Carpenter | 150 | Suppan | 119 | Mulder | 116 |
| 2006 | Carpenter | 144 | Suppan | 108 | Reyes* | 88 |
| 2007 | Wellemeyer | 142 | Wainwright | 119 | Pineiro* | 112 |
| 2008 | Wellemeyer | 115 | Wainwright | 133 | Lohse | 113 |
| 2009 | Carpenter | 182 | Wainwright | 155 | Pineiro | 117 |
| 2010 | Carpenter | 122 | Wainwright | 161 | Garcia | 145 |
| 2011# | Carpenter | 117 | Wainwright | 140 | Westbrook | 101 |
* partial season
# career averages
The first thing that jumped out at me was the passing of the torch of staff ace from Matt Morris at the end of the prior decade to Woody Williams to Chris Carpenter to Adam Wainwright, with a few gap seasons in the middle.
Another thing that caught my eye was the ever-changing names in the third column. In this case, the third is not based on salary or rotation order, but in terms of results – being one of the top three in the rotation as measured by ERA+.
It is amazing to me that while two of the top three often remained constant from year to year, the identity of the third top pitcher changed ten times in ten years!
Looking ahead to 2011, I could have assumed Jaime Garcia’s second season will be superior to Jake Westbrook’s, but I didn’t. With just one full season under Garcia’s belt, that seemed presumptuous when Westbrook already has a consistent body of work. (For completeness, Kyle Lohse’s career ERA+ is 93.)
As in the earlier analysis, I assumed career ERA+ marks for Westbrook, Carpenter and Wainwright next season.
Summing the top three pitchers’ annual ERA+ marks and ranking the seasons from high to low provides this:
| Rank | Year | ERA+ | ERA+ | ERA+ | Total | Playoffs | |||
| 1 | 2001 | Morris | 137 | Williams | 190 | Kile | 140 | 467 | yes |
| 2 | 2009 | Carpenter | 182 | Wainwright | 155 | Pineiro | 117 | 454 | yes |
| 3 | 2010 | Carpenter | 122 | Wainwright | 161 | Garcia | 145 | 428 | no |
| 4 | 2002 | Morris | 117 | Williams | 159 | An Benes* | 144 | 420 | yes |
| 5 | 2005 | Carpenter | 150 | Suppan | 119 | Mulder | 116 | 385 | yes |
| 6 | 2007 | Wellemeyer | 142 | Wainwright | 119 | Pineiro* | 112 | 373 | no |
| 7 | 2008 | Wellemeyer | 115 | Wainwright | 133 | Lohse | 113 | 361 | no |
| 8 | 2011# | Carpenter | 117 | Wainwright | 140 | Westbrook | 101 | 358 | TBD |
| 9 | 2004 | Carpenter | 124 | Suppan | 103 | Marquis | 115 | 342 | yes |
| 10 | 2006 | Carpenter | 144 | Suppan | 108 | Reyes* | 88 | 340 | yes |
| 11 | 2003 | Morris | 110 | Williams | 106 | Stephenson | 90 | 306 | no |
* partial season
# career averages
Four of the top five seasons were playoff years, with 2010 the lone exception. 2011 slots in at number eight of 11, but if Garcia’s career ERA+ of 133 was used instead of Westbrook’s 101, the additional 32 points would vault the 2011 projection up to number five.
Not wanting to prolong this process, I did take it one final step to try to tie up the loose ends. I am going to list it here rather than running yet another similarly-themed piece tomorrow.
In perhaps some bad chemistry, I added the OPS+ of the top three hitters each year to the ERA+ of the top three starting pitchers and re-ranked the Pujols years.
| Rank | Year | OPS+ | ERA+ | Total | Playoffs |
| 1 | 2009 | 463 | 454 | 917 | yes |
| 2 | 2001 | 423 | 467 | 890 | yes |
| 3 | 2010 | 454 | 428 | 882 | no |
| 4 | 2002 | 452 | 420 | 872 | yes |
| 5 | 2004 | 499 | 342 | 841 | yes |
| 6 | 2008 | 464 | 361 | 825 | no |
| 7 | 2005 | 435 | 385 | 820 | yes |
| 8 | 2011# | 452 | 358 | 810 | TBD |
| 9 | 2003 | 485 | 306 | 791 | no |
| 10 | 2006 | 444 | 340 | 784 | yes |
| 11 | 2007 | 381 | 373 | 754 | no |
# career averages
While the top years changed slightly, the end result was similar to the pitchers’ in that four of the top five scoring seasons ended with a playoff berth. Whether there is real correlation here, coincidence or something in between, I don’t know.
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