photo: Paul DeJong (Jeff Curry/USA TODAY Sports Images)
The accolades for St. Louis Cardinals shortstop Paul DeJong began with his initial game as a major leaguer when he homered in his very first at-bat. That was on May 28 at Colorado.
Since then, the long balls have kept coming. His 20th this past Saturday extended his team lead, despite his arrival to the bigs almost two months later than most of his teammates. That total has already placed him fourth all time among Cardinals rookies – and 38 games remain!
Needless to say, DeJong’s name is already among some elite company.
Over his first 71 games with St. Louis, those 20 homers tied none other than Albert Pujols for the most in team history and DeJong’s 37 extra-base hits are tops during that time.
As his success grew, the 24-year old settled into the important number three spot in manager Mike Matheny’s lineup.
Nothing but smooth sailing is ahead, some suggest.
I am not so sure, however.
The unpleasant side of DeJong’s performance is a very high strikeout rate, 30.2 percent. Coupled with an exceptionally low walk rate of 3.8 percent, it suggests his early success may not be sustainable – especially when pitchers stop throwing him strikes.
To help put my concern into context, I asked researcher Tom Orf for assistance.
The list of all Cardinals rookies in team history with at least 15 home runs, 20 walks or less and more than 60 strikeouts includes just one name – DeJong. Even by dropping the home run bar to 10, just one other name appeared, Jeremy Hazelbaker from last season.
As such, the need to expand our aperture to all of MLB became apparent. In doing so, we identified 18 other rookies in the history of the game that meet the 15 HR, 20 BB, 60 K criteria. While many names are familiar, others have long since been forgotten.
Here are the 18 with first-year profiles comparable to DeJong, listed from most recent to oldest.
| MLB rookies | Year | HR | BB | SO | PA | Age | Tm |
| Matt Davidson | 2017 | 22 | 17 | 124 | 324 | 26 | CHW |
| Paul DeJong | 2017 | 20 | 11 | 87 | 288 | 23 | STL |
| Jonathan Schoop | 2014 | 16 | 13 | 122 | 481 | 22 | BAL |
| Will Middlebrooks | 2012 | 15 | 13 | 70 | 286 | 23 | BOS |
| Alexei Ramirez (RoY-2nd) | 2008 | 21 | 18 | 61 | 509 | 26 | CHW |
| Chris Davis | 2008 | 17 | 20 | 88 | 317 | 22 | TEX |
| Josh Phelps (RoY-6th) | 2002 | 15 | 19 | 82 | 287 | 24 | TOR |
| Jeff Liefer | 2001 | 18 | 20 | 69 | 279 | 26 | CHW |
| Carlos Lee (RoY-7th) | 1999 | 16 | 13 | 72 | 518 | 23 | CHW |
| Garret Anderson (RoY-2nd) | 1995 | 16 | 19 | 65 | 400 | 23 | CAL |
| Shawn Green (RoY-5th) | 1995 | 15 | 20 | 68 | 405 | 22 | TOR |
| Raul Mondesi (RoY-1st) | 1994 | 16 | 16 | 78 | 454 | 23 | LAD |
| Benito Santiago (RoY-1st) | 1987 | 18 | 16 | 112 | 572 | 22 | SDP |
| Cory Snyder (RoY-4th) | 1986 | 24 | 16 | 123 | 433 | 23 | CLE |
| Billy Cowan | 1964 | 19 | 18 | 128 | 520 | 25 | CHC |
| Don Demeter | 1959 | 18 | 16 | 87 | 401 | 24 | LAD |
| Dick Stuart | 1958 | 16 | 11 | 75 | 271 | 25 | PIT |
| Don Zimmer | 1955 | 15 | 19 | 66 | 309 | 24 | BRO |
| Pat Seerey | 1944 | 15 | 19 | 99 | 365 | 21 | CLE |
Note that here in 2017, another joined DeJong in the first-season high home run and strikeouts and low walk trifecta – third baseman Matt Davidson of the White Sox.
To narrow the scope further, I sorted the 19 rookies three ways – by walk rate, strikeout rate and finally, strikeout to walk ratio. For walks, I drew the line at 4.0%, for strikeouts, the cutoff is 25% and strikeout to walk ratio, we will look at those at 6:1 or higher.
| MLB rookie BB rate under 4% | Year | HR | BB | SO | PA | Age | Tm | BB rate | |
| 1 | Carlos Lee (RoY-7th) | 1999 | 16 | 13 | 72 | 518 | 23 | CHW | 2.5% |
| 2 | Jonathan Schoop | 2014 | 16 | 13 | 122 | 481 | 22 | BAL | 2.7% |
| 3 | Benito Santiago (RoY-1st) | 1987 | 18 | 16 | 112 | 572 | 22 | SDP | 2.8% |
| 4 | Billy Cowan | 1964 | 19 | 18 | 128 | 520 | 25 | CHC | 3.5% |
| 5 | Raul Mondesi (RoY-1st) | 1994 | 16 | 16 | 78 | 454 | 23 | LAD | 3.5% |
| 6 | Alexei Ramirez (RoY-2nd) | 2008 | 21 | 18 | 61 | 509 | 26 | CHW | 3.5% |
| 7 | Cory Snyder (RoY-4th) | 1986 | 24 | 16 | 123 | 433 | 23 | CLE | 3.7% |
| 8 | Paul DeJong | 2017 | 20 | 11 | 87 | 288 | 23 | STL | 3.8% |
| 9 | Don Demeter | 1959 | 18 | 16 | 87 | 401 | 24 | LAD | 4.0% |
| MLB rookie K rate over 25% | Year | HR | BB | SO | PA | Age | Tm | K rate | |
| 1 | Matt Davidson | 2017 | 22 | 17 | 124 | 324 | 26 | CHW | 38.3% |
| 2 | Paul DeJong | 2017 | 20 | 11 | 87 | 288 | 23 | STL | 30.2% |
| 3 | Josh Phelps (RoY-6th) | 2002 | 15 | 19 | 82 | 287 | 24 | TOR | 28.6% |
| 4 | Cory Snyder (RoY-4th) | 1986 | 24 | 16 | 123 | 433 | 23 | CLE | 28.4% |
| 5 | Chris Davis | 2008 | 17 | 20 | 88 | 317 | 22 | TEX | 27.8% |
| 6 | Dick Stuart | 1958 | 16 | 11 | 75 | 271 | 25 | PIT | 27.7% |
| 7 | Pat Seerey | 1944 | 15 | 19 | 99 | 365 | 21 | CLE | 27.1% |
| 8 | Jonathan Schoop | 2014 | 16 | 13 | 122 | 481 | 22 | BAL | 25.4% |
| MLB rookie K/BB ratio over 6:1 | Year | HR | BB | SO | PA | Age | Tm | K/BB | |
| 1 | Jonathan Schoop | 2014 | 16 | 13 | 122 | 481 | 22 | BAL | 9.4 |
| 2 | Paul DeJong | 2017 | 20 | 11 | 87 | 288 | 23 | STL | 7.9 |
| 3 | Cory Snyder (RoY-4th) | 1986 | 24 | 16 | 123 | 433 | 23 | CLE | 7.7 |
| 4 | Matt Davidson | 2017 | 22 | 17 | 124 | 324 | 26 | CHW | 7.3 |
| 5 | Billy Cowan | 1964 | 19 | 18 | 128 | 520 | 25 | CHC | 7.1 |
| 6 | Benito Santiago (RoY-1st) | 1987 | 18 | 16 | 112 | 572 | 22 | SDP | 7.0 |
| 7 | Dick Stuart | 1958 | 16 | 11 | 75 | 271 | 25 | PIT | 6.8 |
Only three names appear on all of these lists – DeJong, Jonathan Schoop and Cory Snyder.
| Rookie | MLB | Career | |||||
| Rookie | Team | Pos | bWAR | Years | bWAR | Awards | |
| Jonathan Schoop | 2014 | BAL | 2B | 1.5 | 5+ | 9.3+ | 1 All-Star |
| Cory Snyder | 1986 | CLE | OF | 1.1 | 9 | 0.6 | ROY-4th |
| Paul DeJong | 2017 | STL | SS | 1.9+ | <1 | 1.9+ |
In the above table, I showed their years of MLB service as well as rookie season and career WAR, according to Baseball-Reference. With Schoop still relatively early in his career, Snyder is the only rookie comp to have a full career body of work.
Cory Snyder
Snyder got out of the gates quickly for Cleveland, earning a fourth-place vote in the American League Rookie of the Year balloting in 1986. That was it for his career recognition, however. In terms of power, he peaked in his second season, his age 24 year, with 33 home runs and 82 RBI, but batted just .236.
As he moved to four other clubs, Snyder managed to prolong his career through defensive versatility, eventually playing every position on the field except pitching and catching.
When all was said and done, however, Snyder’s career WAR of 0.6 was barely over replacement level. Slowed by injuries, he was out of the majors by age 32 with a career slash line of .247/.291/.425/.716.
Jonathan Schoop
After batting just .209 to go with 16 home runs and 45 RBI in his rookie season of 2014 for the Baltimore Orioles, Schoop’s career direction was unclear. Slowed by injury in 2015, the Curacao native came into his own last season.
2017 is Schoop’s best year yet, as he has 27 home runs, 93 RBI, a .302 average and an .886 OPS that earned him an American League All-Star berth. He has amassed 4.3 of his 9.3 career bWAR this season to-date.
Needless to say, at age 25, Schoop’s career is on the rise.
Improvement ahead?
The final table compares the rookie strikeout and walk rates of Snyder and Schoop to their career marks. In every case, there was later improvement following the first-year extremes, though not revolutionary. Walk rates came up by a percent or two and strikeout rates lowered by around three percent over time. Strikeout to walk ratios showed comparable improvement, though still remained high.
| Rookie | Career | Rookie | Career | Rookie | Career | |
| BB rate | BB rate | K rate | K rate | K/BB | K/BB | |
| Jonathan Schoop | 2.7% | 3.6% | 25.4% | 22.7% | 9.4 | 6.2 |
| Cory Snyder | 3.7% | 5.7% | 28.4% | 25.2% | 7.7 | 4.4 |
| Paul DeJong | 3.8% | 30.2% | 7.9 |
Will DeJong follow the career paths at the plate of either Snyder or Schoop? Maybe or maybe not. However, by looking at others like DeJong, one can see some possible improvement ahead in the strikeouts and walks as well as the potential for a long MLB career. How productive it will be remains to be seen.
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Brian Walton can be reached via email at brian@thecardinalnationblog.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.
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