Cardinals Select Chase Davis on 2023 MLB Draft’s First Day

photo: Chase Davis (Mike Christy/Arizona Athletics)

The St. Louis Cardinals named their lone selection on Day 1 of the 2023 First-Year Player Draft – first-round outfielder Chase Davis from the University of Arizona. Reactions from the player, the team’s scouting director and full scouting reports follow.

By Blake Newberry and Brian Walton

The first two rounds of the 20-round 2023 Major League Baseball First-Year Player draft were held on Sunday evening, July 9 in Seattle, Washington. For the third year, the draft is reduced to 20 rounds and held a month later than traditionally, now as part of MLB’s All-Star Weekend.

By virtue of their 2022 success, the St. Louis Cardinals received the 21st overall selection in the first round but they forfeited their second-rounder (which would have been no. 56 with associated pool money of $1,474,500) for signing free agent Willson Contreras during the off-season. In compensation, his former club, the Chicago Cubs, received the 68th overall selection. This comp pick, at the end of the second round, has an associated slot bonus of $1,101,000.

As a result, St. Louis has just one selection in the first 89 picks in this draft. (Their third-rounder will be no. 90 overall.)

The Cardinals organization’s eight picks to be made in the third through 10th rounds will be made on Monday, starting at 2:00 p.m. Eastern time. The final 10 selections will be unveiled starting at 2:00 p.m. ET Tuesday.

The Cardinals have been assigned a pool total of $6,375,100 to cover the signing bonuses for their nine players selected in the first 10 rounds plus any bonuses greater than $150,000 for draftees selected in rounds 11-20.

To reference the Cardinals’ new draft class on an ongoing basis here at The Cardinal Nation, each player will have a profile located on a holding team called “DRAFT UNSIGNED PLAYERS”. This can be accessed at the bottom of the drop-down menu in the red column in the left menu called “ROSTERS/PLAYERS/MOVES” or click here.

St. Louis’ selection – 2023 draft day 1

First round, 21st overall – Chase Davis, outfielder
University of Arizona
6’1, 216 pounds
Bats/Throws: L/L

  • Limited playing time as a true freshman in 2021 with a veteran-led team that advanced to the College World Series.
  • Became a full-time player in 2022, starting 62 games, hitting .289 (68-for-235) with a .414 on-base percentage along with a team-leading 18 HR, 13 doubles, 54 RBI and 56 runs scored.
  • Entered 2023 as a consensus preseason All-American and led the Wildcats in several offensive categories including batting average (.362), on-base percentage (.489), slugging percentage (.742), runs (71), home runs (21) and walks (43) while starting all 57 games played.
  • His 21 home runs tied for first among all Pac-12 hitters and the third-most in a single season in school history.  Reached base safely in 55 of 57 games played, including his first 45 games to begin the season.
  • Raised his batting average by 73 points, lowered his strikeout rate from 22.8% to 14.4% and had more walks than strikeouts (40).
  • Named the Pac-12 tournament’s Most Valuable Player with a tournament-high 12 RBI in four games.
  • Named to the Pac-12 All-Conference Team and a Second-Team All-American by the National Collegiate Baseball Writers Association (NCBWA) and the American Baseball Coaches Association (ABCA).  Semifinalist for the Golden Spikes Award and Dick Howser Trophy.

Chase Davis

The pool amount for this pick is $3,618,200.

Davis was MLB Pipeline’s no. 22 draft-eligible prospect.

He is the second outfielder from the Arizona Wildcats taken by the Cardinals in the early rounds in the last three years. His former teammate Ryan Holgate was selected by St. Louis with the 70th overall pick in 2021. However, Holgate washed out in Low-A and was released by the Cardinals in May.

Reaction

“Chase is someone we’ve been following since his high school days that we are thrilled about adding to our organization,” said Cardinals Assistant General Manager and Director of Scouting Randy Flores.

“He had a banner junior season this year at Arizona, displaying incredible power while also dramatically improving his plate discipline to become one of the most well-rounded outfielders in the country.  He also showed an ability to move very well defensively and possess a strong throwing arm that we believe will be able to play at any outfield position.  During our evaluations, we learned of his tremendous work ethic and deep love of the game, giving our scouting department confidence that he will develop to become the best player possible.”

See Flores full remarks to the media Sunday night here.

Flores is among the many who draws a comp for Davis to former Colorado Rockies All-Star outfielder Carlos Gonzalez due to their similar swings. Prior to his junior year, Davis made changes to his swing that reduced his strikeout rate by 33%.

Chase Davis (upper right) and media

In a media Zoom session Sunday night, Davis discussed this.

“As I got older and more mature, I got more disciplined in the zone,” Davis said. “Freshman and sophomore years were learning curves. I knew my sophomore stats weren’t going to play at the next level with swing and miss. I asked myself, ‘What am I going to do to lessen it?’ I did some work in the offseason and took it out there this spring.”

Though he was not a regular as a freshman in 2021, Davis said that advancing to the College World Series in Omaha was his most meaningful career experience to date.

Scouting report

Chase Davis fits the bill with the kind of players the Cardinals have targeted in the first round in recent years. Looking back at the last few bats the Cardinals have selected with their first pick – Delvin Perez in 2016, Nolan Gorman in 2018, and Jordan Walker in 2020 – the organization seems to have targeted power and/or athleticism with a focus on high ceilings instead of high floors, though those aren’t necessarily mutually exclusive.

Davis has a high ceiling. And a lot of tools. To be honest, this is the player I was hoping the Cardinals would take at 1.21 but I wasn’t sure if he would fall. He’s actually the first college hitter selected by the Cardinals with their first pick in the draft since Randy Flores took over as scouting director (excluding Scott Hurst, who was a third round pick in 2017) but he’s not just a safe, high floor college prospect. He’s very much someone with all-star potential at his peak.

The story with Davis is the power. He’s a big time slugger with the exit velocities and college production to match. In his junior season at Arizona, the outfielder clubbed 21 home runs and slugged a cool .742. He also looks the part too with a strong 6’1”, 216 muscular frame. 

And, as we look deeper, exit velocity is really where Davis stands out. He had a max exit velocity of 117 mph this year with a 90th percentile exit velocity of 108 mph. Those are elite numbers. For reference, Dylan Crews, the second overall pick in the draft, had a 90th percentile exit velocity of 109.6 this year. Davis isn’t far behind and was taken 19 picks later.

His power is up there with anyone in the draft and it’s that kind of power that really gives him greater potential than many of the players taken before him. There’s a legitimate middle-of-the-order ceiling here with a plus power tool at least with potential to be double plus down the road.

From a swing perspective, there are a lot of moving parts as Davis starts with a wide open stance before moving into a medium sized leg kick. There is some head movement as Davis moves into his leg kick but his head is still once he starts moving towards the ball which is a good sign and he does have a decent amount of hand movement in his setup and load but not a concerning amount.

Generally there are two worries from a practical standpoint with hitters that have a lot of moving parts in their swing.

The first is that they may struggle to see the ball well and the second is that they may struggle to make a lot of contact. Those issues can be connected but essentially think about the first issue as correlating to chase rate and the second issue as correlating to contact rate.

Davis has never really had an issue with chasing pitches as he had a walk rate of 15.5% in 2023 that was actually a tick below his 16.6% walk rate in 2022. Joe Doyle of Future Star Series (who does excellent work on the draft) gave us further evidence in his scouting report by noting that Davis’ chase rates are borderline elite.

He should continue to draw walk rates at a high level in pro ball, especially when teams start pitching around his power.

The next potential concern is contact rate and while there may be some merit to that concern due to his history, Davis made big strides in that department this year. For example, Davis decreased his strikeout rate from 22.8% in 2022 (above 20% is somewhat concerning for a college bat, especially in the first round) to a much healthier 14.4% in 2023. According to Baseball America, he also increased his contact rate from 68% (below average) in 2022 to 80% in 2023.

Those contact rate gains are what have really made Davis such an enticing prospect. Power is one thing. Power and discipline is another. But a guy who takes walks, absolutely crushes the ball, and makes enough contact to tap into his power is someone who has the potential to truly be an impact bat.

Nothing in the underlying numbers makes me concerned about Davis’ swing. In fact, Davis actually tweaked his swing from his 2022 season, opening up his stance more this year and quieting his hands a bit, and it not only looks more fluid but also led to a breakout for him. Not every hitter needs to have a quiet swing with minimal movement. The lefty’s swing works for him and creates a tremendous amount of whip that helps him catch up to inside heat and really slug the ball.

To be honest, I’m not the best at identifying bat speed simply by watching a player’s swing but when I watch Davis swing a bat even I can see it. He gets a ton of bat speed and that’s where his plus power comes from. After the tweaks that Davis made, I could watch his swing all day long.

Moving beyond the bat, Davis is probably a below average to average runner who stole 4 bases in 2022 and none in 2023 so his speed isn’t going to make a huge impact on the bases. He does, however, have enough speed to not be hampered in the outfield and he should comfortably stick in right field with a certified howitzer attached to his left shoulder.

In fact, in high school he was clocked at 93 mph in the outfield. Presumably, that arm has gotten stronger in college. That’s a plus arm at least and maybe more. I don’t expect Davis to be more than an average defender but his defense and his speed are probably his two worst tools. That’s a pretty complete player.

Davis did struggle in the Cape Cod League but I’m not putting a lot of stock in a 15 game, 66 plate appearance sample. His overall body of work is impressive as are the tools underlying it.

The outfielder is more just a talented player though. He majored in Spanish in college and speaks the language fluently and also gets high marks for his character and makeup. That’s just the cherry on top for a guy who can crush the baseball with his whippy left-handed swing and quelled his swing and miss concerns this year.

Your authors

TCN prospect analyst Blake Newberry is writing these player scouting reports with Brian Walton filling in the rest.

What is next?

Check back at The Cardinal Nation for details of Days 2 and 3 of the 2023 MLB First-Year Player Draft.

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