photo: Dylan Carlson (Frank Ramirez/The Cardinal Nation)
A segment of St. Louis Cardinals fans have begun to pine for the promotion of the organization’s top prospect, outfielder Dylan Carlson, to the major leagues this season.
Most eye-catching is the 20-year old’s very recent results. The switch-hitter is off to a tremendous, albeit brief, start to the Triple-A phase of his career with a .520/.586/.960/1.546 slash line in 24 at bats over six games as a member of the Memphis Redbirds. Prior to that, Carlson was on a historic 20-20 path with Double-A Springfield.
While as a concept, I can understand the appeal to bring Carlson to St. Louis, practically speaking, the reasons against a promotion tip my scale hard in that direction.
They include:
- No clear playing time with St. Louis
- A better developmental opportunity in the Arizona Fall League
- Saving a 40-man roster spot
- Not starting his service time clock
The “pro” to these cons is an assertion that if placed in the Cardinals every-day lineup immediately, Carlson would perform better than whoever he replaces, enhancing the 2019 club’s playoff run.
I get the frustration of fans watching a lineup each night of veterans who are underperforming compared to their career norms. But practically, doing something about it is another matter entirely. Installing an unproven rookie as a regular in a pennant race carries its own risks – with that player and others.
However, I am not here to debate how Carlson might perform compared to other outfielders in his first month as a major leaguer, as it can neither be proven nor refuted until it actually occurs.
Instead, I will explain by expanding on the four prior points why I believe Carlson isn’t likely to be coming up this September.
But first, I want to address a very specific overriding principle.
I’ve got your back
While the context of the discussion was why he continues to start long-slumping third baseman Matt Carpenter, Cardinals manager Mike Shildt revealed what I believe to be a core element of his lineup management philosophy this week when he noted that he has “the back” of his (veteran) players.
Anyone who has followed the Dexter Fowler situation since the day Shildt became manager already knew this, but the corollary has also been made clear this season. Rookies – even when among the very best prospects in the system and arriving in St. Louis in a hot spell – are played sparingly and not in meaningful situations. Examples include pitchers Ryan Helsley and Junior Fernandez and outfielders Lane Thomas and Randy Arozarena.
The only exception to this is Tommy Edman, who has been named by Shildt as a regular, despite not having a clear spot defensively. In order to protect regular at-bats for Carpenter (in my assessment), Edman was deployed out of position as the semi-regular right fielder in recent weeks – despite no professional experience as an outfielder and offensive splits that did not seem to explain why the better-hitting young outfielders were not tried instead.
Harrison Bader, who was given four months to work out of a major slump of his own, was finally dispatched to Triple-A Memphis on July 29 to re-discover his swing and regain his confidence at the plate. With his mission accomplished, the center fielder was returned to St. Louis on Tuesday.
So far, in two games back, Bader has started both. This suggests to me that he may be another player who can feel that his manager has his back – as opposed to rookies Thomas and Arozarena, neither of whom has ever been given more than two consecutive starts in the majors.
So, where would Carlson fit in this veteran-rookie construct?
With that background, let’s get back to the four points affecting the prospect.
- Playing time
As noted above, some assume that Carlson would immediately out-hit whichever St. Louis outfielder he displaces. Let’s take these displacement candidates one-by-one.
Left field – While Marcell Ozuna’s future as an impending free agent may open the door for Carlson in 2020, there is no way the team’s best power threat will be displaced by Carlson in the final month of a pennant race.
Right field – Forget 2018 for a moment. Even forget his contract. Dexter Fowler remains one of five Cardinals hitters performing above league average this season. There is nothing in Fowler’s 2019 performance that would give Shildt reason to not continue to have Fowler’s back, as the manager has since he took over 13 months ago. In fact, the outfielder’s 103 OPS+ is identical to that of All-Star shortstop Paul DeJong.
Center field – In his return, Bader has played in just one game so far and in it, displayed discipline at the plate that he lacked earlier. He also laced a triple off the wall in left-center and played his usual strong game defensively. Explain how Bader should sit in favor of Carlson after just a handful of trial games back with St. Louis? Bader needs the playing time to answer the immediate question about his future – starter or reserve?
Other outfielders – Let’s put aside Thomas and Arozarena (not to mention fellow 40-man outfielders Adolis Garcia and Justin Williams). The returns of Tyler O’Neill and Jose Martinez are nearing. While Martinez could (and probably should) be deployed as a pinch-hitter, O’Neill has yet to answer the question of whether he has what it takes to be a major league starter. How could that be furthered if he is the fifth outfielder at best in the season’s final month?
But couldn’t Carlson benefit just by being on the big-league bench, soaking up the aura of a playoff race, his supporters ask?
That leads me to point number two.
- A better place to develop
The Arizona Fall League prospect showcase is tailor-made for players like Carlson – on the cusp of the majors, but looking to gain more experience against advanced competition. In the AFL, Carlson could keep playing five days a week from mid-September through October, logging another important 100 plate appearances.
This is a strategy successfully deployed by the Atlanta Braves with then-19-year old outfielder Ronald Acuña Jr., sent to the 2017 AFL after the top prospect had appeared in 54 Triple-A games. Following his standout performance in the desert, Acuña went on to become the 2018 National League Rookie of the Year.
Edman went to the AFL last fall, after his first 17 games with Memphis – which is about the most time Carlson could log with the 2019 Redbirds, as well.
In my opinion, the AFL would be a far better choice to extend Carlson’s development this fall versus riding the pines with St. Louis – and it is not even close.
Update
Carlson was in fact selected to play in the AFL.
Update no. 2 – September 12
Carlson has been pulled from the AFL.
The plan has changed for #STLCards top prospect Dylan Carlson, John Mozeliak tells me. He no longer will play in the Arizona Fall League, but instead will stay home in California and work on adding strength. Mo is OK with it, doesn't think he has anything more to prove this year.
— Mark Saxon (@markasaxon) September 12, 2019
- 40-man roster spot
Because he was drafted in 2016 as a high schooler, Carlson does not require addition to the 40-man roster this fall to be protected from this December’s Rule 5 Draft. By promoting him now, the organization would have to leave another prospect unprotected and at risk to be lost via Rule 5.
Yes, departing free agents will free up 40-man spots this fall, just as those on the 60-day injured list will have to be added back in. We have no idea how other roster moves – such as trades, releases or outrights – could also affect the roster, as there are too many moving parts to predict at this time.
However, there can be no debate – adding Carlson early would have some downstream impact.
- MLB service time
Major League players are eligible for free agency at six years of service. Bringing Carlson up now would log his first month of MLB service time. While the Cardinals say (and their prior actions back this up), they do not manipulate player service time to defer arbitration eligibility or free agency, starting Carlson’s service clock in 2019 could have negative ramifications later.
Again, just as in number 3, the exact impact is unknown at this time. The extra month could be immaterial later on, or in the worst case for the Cardinals, Carlson could become free agent-eligible a year earlier than otherwise.
One can debate how substantial the impact may be, but there is risk at a level only to be determined over the upcoming years.
Conclusion
Sorry “Carlson in 2019” supporters, but as I see it, there are too many reasons not to call Carlson up for the final month and no clear practical benefit in doing so.
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