All posts by Brian Walton

Brian Walton runs The Cardinal Nation, covering the St. Louis Cardinals and minor league system.

The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #1: The collapse

The St. Louis Cardinals were expected to repeat as division-winners in 2010. Instead, they missed the playoffs entirely.

In a way, my selection of the biggest story of the St. Louis Cardinals’ 2010 may appear a bit anti-climactic. In my line of thinking, the finish to any given season is positioned by default to become the top story of the year, but needs to proven by the actual events. In 2010, I think it definitely came to pass.

Unlike many other stories in the top 20 countdown, this one took six months to unfold. It was more of a long, tortuous story than one that arrived with a bang.

There has been and will continue to be plenty of opportunity to debate when the turning point in the season occurred, what the biggest contributors to the downfall were, when the season was truly lost and so on (see poll below and reader top story voting that begins here Tuesday).

Yet, standing back, the biggest story of the year is clearly that the favorite in a weak division, anchored by some of the very best players in Major League Baseball and led by a future Hall of Fame manager, underachieved to the extent they sat home in October for the third time in four years.

Sure, there were injuries and setbacks along the way, but were they really any more extreme than other clubs had to face? The Cardinals’ core players generally remained healthy and productive throughout the season.

The Cardinals got out of the gates quickly, building a five-game lead in the National League Central by May 3. Two weeks later, even before injuries to Brad Penny, Kyle Lohse and David Freese, they had fallen into second place. The Cards and Cincinnati Reds battled back and forth for the next 2 ½ months. St. Louis gave up the lead for good on August 14 and by September 1 was eight games out.

It appeared the club spent the season on perpetual cruise control, unable to step on the gas when a burst of energy was needed. This was most evidenced by a demonstrated ability to play well when the competition was at its highest level, yet perform at their absolute worst when facing the poorest teams – a fatal condition even the manager could not explain.

Optimists will point out that the 2010 Cardinals finished at 86-76, ten games over .500, just five games behind Cincinnati. However even the most cursory peek under the surface exposes the flimsiness of that façade. The record was buoyed by a season-closing 9-2 stretch, salvaging a winning season during what was essentially garbage time.

The ugly truth is that St. Louis could not consistently beat the teams they were supposed to beat. They stumbled to a confounding 46-50 mark (.479) against clubs that finished with a losing record.

Despite residing in what many believe is MLB’s weakest division, NL Central foes Milwaukee, Chicago and Houston claimed series wins over St. Louis, victories the Cardinals should have gobbled up and would have in other years.

Down the stretch, the team had absolutely nothing left. From August 14 through September 22, they went into an embarrassing 3-20 freefall against losing clubs as any faint post-season hopes completely evaporated.

Why could the Cardinals not play .606 ball (40-26) against all teams like they did against the very best? If they had, 2010 would have been a 98-win season, the best by any club in baseball.

Was it the personnel, or if not, what was it?

What can be learned from this?

Rather than rehash each of the many twists and turns of the past season, since they were already covered in detail in the rest of the top 20 countdown, I prefer to look ahead to 2011.

The Cardinals made the decision to essentially keep in place the same team and management for next season, with some “chemistry” adjustments. The club’s core players are either a year more experienced or simply a year older, depending on your perspective.

Compared to the roster that began the 2010 campaign, these are the major changes implemented since:

Changes among supporting players:

Other changes projected but not yet formalized:

Decide for yourself if you think these moves and expected moves are enough to reroute the Cardinals’ course for 2011.

Remember that the rest of the NL Central isn’t standing still. The Reds return the vast majority of their up-and-coming division-winning squad from last season and always offensively-potent Milwaukee has moved aggressively to address their starting pitching deficiency.

Link to The Cardinal Nation Blog’s top 20 stories of the year countdown

In honor of the completion of my annual top 20, I am including two polls, one looking backward, the other looking ahead.

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #2: Holliday’s signing

Though agent Scott Boras took Matt Holliday into free agency one year ago, the outfielder returned to the St. Louis Cardinals via the biggest contract team history.

In some ways, it feels like it happened so long ago, the signing of then-free agent outfielder Matt Holliday didn’t actually occur during 2010. In reality, it did. The largest contract in St. Louis Cardinals team history was closed last January 5.

In my assessment, not only was the magnitude of the contract, $120 million, enough for the story to rank this high, so is the duration of the commitment of the two parties to each other – seven years, with an eighth-year option that could take the deal to $136 million. The option year would make it the longest contract in team history to go with it already being the top dollar deal. A no-trade clause helps ensure it will be completed.

Some wonder if the Cardinals weren’t bidding against themselves last winter, but they appeared to benefit from the wait as well. Early word from the Scott Boras camp was that Holliday was initially expecting to equal Mark Teixeira’s eight-year, $180 million deal with the Yankees from the previous winter. When all was said and done, he received substantially less.

Keeping Holliday was not an option; it was a necessity

It appeared obvious the Cardinals were in a position they needed to keep Holliday for a multitude of reasons.

Part of keeping Albert Pujols happy and hopefully in St. Louis for at least as long as Holliday will now be is to maintain a competitive team around him and specifically protection behind him in the lineup. That is clearly Holliday’s place.

Once Jason Bay officially came to terms with the New York Mets last January 4, there were no other free agents on the market of anywhere near Holliday’s quality to whom the Cardinals could have turned had he been lost to another club.

Further, it is reasonable to suspect that St. Louis’ “sunken costs” in Holliday played a factor in their aggressiveness in ensuring they kept him. They had paid a very high price when acquiring Holliday from Oakland in July 2009, three top prospects. Even with a pair of compensation picks had Holliday signed elsewhere, the Cards would have netted down one prospect and lost a number of important man-years of player development.

Holliday delivered

Holliday lived up to his part of the agreement in 2010, earning a National League All-Star berth, a Silver Slugger and the annual Darryl Kile Award selected by his peers for being “a good teammate, a great friend, a fine father and a humble man.”

The Cardinals cleanup hitter batted .312, fifth-best in the NL, tied for seventh with 103 RBI, tied for fourth in multi-hit games with 52, was third in hits with 86, fourth in total bases with 317, sixth in on-base percentage (.390) and extra base hits (.74) and seventh in slugging (.532).

In an impressive combination of power and hustle, Holliday led the Cardinals with 45 doubles, tying for second-most in the league, while also scratching out a club-best 12 infield hits.

Defensively, Holliday tied for ninth among all NL outfielders with eight assists and was first among left fielders. It was the first time a Cardinal led left fielders in outfield assists since Bernard Gilkey had 19 in 1993.

The Cardinals did not finish strongly, but don’t blame Holliday. In the final month, he put together the 2010 team-best 16-game hitting streak, the second longest in his career. During the period of September 9-24, Holliday batted .431 (25-for-58) with two home runs and 12 RBI. His .364 average during September/October was second-highest in the NL.

Despite early-season concerns by some about Holliday’s batting average with runners in scoring position, he proved his “clutchiness” with 17 game-winning RBI. That total was second on the Cardinals and tied for third in the NL.

Holliday appears poised to do it for at least the next six years as well. Will he do it alone or with Pujols batting in front of him?

Link to The Cardinal Nation Blog’s top 20 stories of the year countdown

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #3: The big trade

The Ryan Ludwick for Jake Westbrook trade was one of the biggest and arguably the most surprising story of the St. Louis Cardinals’ 2010 season.

As the July 31 non-waiver trade deadline approached, the St. Louis Cardinals were still in the National League Central Division hunt, holding a slim half-game lead over eventual winner Cincinnati. Their 15-11 July was their best month since having gone 15-8 to open the season.

With third baseman David Freese apparently nearing his return from injury, the organization placed a major bet, trading offense for pitching. The view was that Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia did not offer enough in the rotation to carry them down the stretch. Brad Penny’s return seemed increasingly unlikely, Kyle Lohse was still out following a first-of-a-kind surgery and the minor league hurlers given trials had not impressed.

On July 31, with 58 games remaining, general manager John Mozeliak pulled the trigger on surprise trade, a move that would define his club’s 2010 season. Popular right fielder Ryan Ludwick was sent to San Diego in a three-team deal that netted the Cardinals starting pitcher Jake Westbrook from Cleveland and Class A left-hander Nick Greenwood from the Padres. Mozeliak had received a three-year contract extension just two weeks prior.

Along with the addition of starting pitching in Westbrook, at least three other potential contributing factors to the trade were discussed in the media and among fans. The relative importance of each remains open to debate.

1) Opening up time for youngsters. One by-product of dealing Ludwick was the creation of more playing opportunity for outfield prospects. Jon Jay became the primary beneficiary. First called up in late April, the 25-year-old had not stood out in his Major League debut and was soon returned to Triple-A.

Jay not only was back in July, but he stuck in the majors. During the month, he was absolutely red-hot, with a .431/.500/.667 line. To suggest he would adequately fill Ludwick’s void in right field seemed true – but only for awhile.

Though collectively he batted .300 in 105 games overall in 2010, Jay hit just .244 following the trade, putting his starting mettle into question.

2) Ludwick’s salary. In his second of three arbitration-eligible years, Ludwick made $5.45 million in 2010. Some felt the Cardinals did not want to pay that much money for a right fielder, let alone adding to that a likely raise for Ludwick that could net him several million additional for 2011.

That line of thinking might have held water until the club signed Lance Berkman in December for $8 million to play Ludwick’s old right field post next season. The move returns Jay and potential platoon partner Allen Craig to reserve roles.

While Berkman is considered a more accomplished player than Ludwick, he is older and his salary is higher. Further, Berkman has been injury-prone and is on the downside of his career. Several projection systems have suggested the two’s home run and RBI production in 2011 may not be dramatically different.

3) Ludwick’s desire for regular playing time. It was reported that just prior to the trade, the outfielder had approached manager Tony La Russa to express dissatisfaction with not being in the lineup every day. Ludwick previously had a groin injury which led to caution in deploying him. Yet even after he was cleared by the medical staff, Jay had continued to cut into his playing time.

Some wondered whether Ludwick’s ongoing concern was a contributing factor in the trade.

Westbrook cements spot

Upon donning the Cardinals uniform, Westbrook did his part to justify the transaction, exceeding expectations on the mound. With St. Louis, he tossed nine quality starts in 12 outings with a 3.48 ERA. The already-struggling offense did not rebound from the loss of Ludwick, however. One indication is that the team went just 5-7 in Westbrook’s 12 starts.

Still, Westbrook was impressed with the club and they were happy with him as well. Though the 33-year-old right-hander reached free agency, in mid-November he agreed to terms on a new, two-year contract with a mutual option for 2013.

The first two guaranteed years of the deal are worth $16.5 million in total with an additional $1 million if Westbrook wants to return for the third season but the Cardinals instead choose to buy their way out. The annual salaries are $8 million in 2011, and $8.5 million in both 2012 and 2013. Westbrook also received full no-trade protection.

After the trade, Ludwick struggled mightily in a San Diego uniform, posting a line of .211/.301/.330 in 59 games. He was offered arbitration following the season and is expected to be the Padres’ left fielder in 2011.

Impact on the team

While there were likely many factors in the Cardinals disappointing finish beyond this trade, the bottom line is that the club played far better prior to the deal than afterward. In fact, the team logged a sub-.500 record during the final two months while losing 5.5 games in the standings.

Cardinals Games Record Win % Division
Pre-trade 104 58-46 0.558 +0.5 G
Post-trade 58 28-30 0.483 -5.5 G

With Westbrook on the staff and Ludwick gone, you might suspect that the offense declined while the pitching improved. It turns out that is only partially the case – at best.

Cardinals Runs/Game BA OBP SLG
Pre-trade 4.46 0.263 0.335 0.412
Post-trade 4.69 0.261 0.326 0.384

The offense actually improved their run scoring by a quarter of a run per game, yet the Cardinals hitters’ collective average, on-base and slugging all declined post-trade. That may indicate the higher scoring rate would not be sustainable.

Opponents Runs/Game BA OBP SLG
Pre-trade 3.68 0.254 0.318 0.383
Post-trade 4.45 0.260 0.320 0.395

The Cardinals’ post-trade pitching was substantially poorer in key measures. Opposing offenses scored three-quarters of a run more per game compared to the first 104 contests. Enemy hitters also had more robust batting averages, on-base percentage and slugging against Cardinals pitching following the trade.

One might wonder if the post-trade numbers would have been even worse without the swap, but the bottom line is that while the Ludwick-Westbrook move was bold, Mozeliak’s big gamble did not pay off in 2010.

Link to The Cardinal Nation Blog’s top 20 stories of the year countdown

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #4: The Pujols decade

Completing his first decade as the on-field leader of the St. Louis Cardinals, first baseman Albert Pujols racked up a series of milestones during 2010.

The following is a subset of the 30-year-old’s amazing list of accomplishments last season alone.

Fast start. As the Cardinals got out of the gate quickly with a 15-8 record in April, not surprisingly, so did Pujols. He was voted MLB’s Clutch Performer for the first month, batting .345 with team-leading seven home runs and 19 RBI.

Home run trifecta. Pujols logged the fourth three-home run game of his career at Chicago on May 30. All four of Pujols’ three-home run contests have been against NL Central opponents and he has accomplished the feat twice at Wrigley Field.

.900 average in All-Star berths. Pujols was selected to his eighth consecutive (and ninth overall) National League All-Star team and received the most votes for the second consecutive season.

Three-run win streak finally broken. Pujols amassed an amazing streak during which his team won every game in which he scored at least three runs. Heading into August 26, the Cardinals were 55-0 when Pujols scored three runs or more in a game over his career. That night, Pujols crossed the plate three times, but the Cardinals lost 11-10 in 13 innings in Washington. It was still a big night, however…

400+ career home runs. Pujols clubbed his 400th career home run that same evening, August 26, off Jordan Zimmermann of the Nationals. Albert finished the season with 408 home runs, ranking 45th all-time and the most ever by a player in his first 10 major league seasons.

August star. Pujols was voted NL Player of the Month on the strength of his .379 batting average, 11 home runs and 23 RBI. Despite that, the team went just 11-15 during August and had fallen seven games out of first place as September began.

Passes Musial in multi-home run games. On September 12 at Atlanta, Pujols had his 38th multi-home run game, tying Hall of Famer Stan Musial for the Cardinals franchise record. Pujols added multi-home run game number 39 at Pittsburgh on September 23 to finish the season as the club’s all-time leader.

Clutchiest Cardinal. Pujols led MLB with 21 game-winning RBI in 2010. His 190 game-winning RBI since his 2001 debut are the most during that time and ranks in a tie for 16th all-time (with Sammy Sosa) since the category was first tracked in 1974.

Walk on by. With 103 bases on balls in 2010, Pujols ranked second in the NL. He became the first Cardinals player in history to record 100 or more in three consecutive seasons and tied Stan Musial for overall 100 walk seasons with three.

Walk, don’t hit. Of those 103 free passes, 38 of them were intentional, most in the Major Leagues. Pujols’ individual total surpassed the team counts for 17 Major League clubs. He currently ranks second among active players with 235 intentional walks.

Top stealer. Pujols led the 2010 Cardinals with 14 stolen bases. That ranked second among MLB first basemen after NL MVP Joey Votto of Cincinnati with 16.

Gold Glove again. Pujols picked up his second Gold Glove Award (2006) after pacing NL first basemen in nearly every defensive category. He had the league’s top marks in fielding percentage (.998), total chances (1619), assists (157), putouts (1458) and double plays (146). He led the Cardinals with 20 defensive “gems” in 2010 and committed a career-low four errors. Despite not becoming the team’s everyday first baseman until 2004, Pujols owns a franchise record 987 career assists at first base.

Team batting race: Matt Holliday and Pujols finished tied (.312) for the team lead in batting, tying for fifth in the NL. Pujols has either led or shared the team lead in batting in each of his first 10 seasons, establishing a franchise record for consecutive seasons doing so. The last Cardinal other then Pujols to lead the team in batting was Fernando Vina (.300) in 2000.

Team Triple Crown: Pujols (.312 average – 42 home runs – 118 RBI) put together his sixth-straight “team” Triple Crown and his ninth in 10 seasons. Pujols’ only miss was in 2004 when Scott Rolen barely edged him in RBI, 124-123.

Consistent excellence. Pujols batted at least .300 with 30 or more home runs and at least 100 RBI for the 10th consecutive season, adding to his own existing Major League record.

2010 NL home run and RBI leader. Pujols led the NL in home runs for the second straight season and he paced the league in RBI for the first time in his career. He joined Johnny Mize (1939-40) and his current hitting coach Mark McGwire (1998-99) as the only Cardinals to lead the league in homers in consecutive seasons. Pujols is the first Cardinal since McGwire in 1999 to top the league in RBI.

Top ten in most categories. In addition to the categories mentioned above, Pujols ranked among NL leaders in hits (fifth, 183), total bases (second, 350), doubles (eighth, 39), on-base percentage (second, .414) and slugging (third, .596).

Sixth Silver Slugger Award. Pujols received his club-record sixth Silver Slugger Award and his third-straight (2008-10). His five previous Silver Slugger selections came in 2001 (third base), 2003 (outfield), and in 2004, 2008-09 at first base.

Active player leadership. Pujols finished the season with a career batting average of .331 (1,900 hits), a .426 on base percentage and .624 slugging mark, the leader among active MLB players in all three categories.

Number one and two in merchandising, too. In a reminder of Pujols’ power off the field, the Cardinals disclosed the top selling jersey in the stadium Team Store in 2010 was the replica Pujols jersey with the number two seller being the youth replica Pujols jersey. The Matt Holliday replica jersey rounded out the top three.

The big disappointments. From a team perspective, Pujols’ club missed the playoffs for the third time in four years. Individually, he fell short of his fourth National League Most Valuable Player award and third straight. Pujols received just one of 32 possible first place votes despite playoff-bound Votto having fewer doubles, home runs, runs scored and RBI.

The 800-pound elephant. The biggest Pujols story of all is the one with an ending yet to be written. His current contract concludes with the 2011 season. While both Pujols and the Cardinals have stated publicly they want to remain together for the duration of the first baseman’s career, the contract details have not been concluded.

If/when such a deal is done, it will surely be the largest ever for St. Louis. The only point of suspense is whether or not it will also become the biggest contract in the history of Major League Baseball. If Pujols instead opts for free agency, it would be quite possible, though many believe the situation will not reach that point.

What do you think? Vote below.

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #5: La Russa and Duncan return

The long-time manager-pitching coach duo will be back leading the St. Louis Cardinals in 2011 despite a difficult 2010.

As the disappointing 2010 season came to its end for the St. Louis Cardinals, the level of ongoing speculation over the future of manager Tony La Russa increased substantially.

Coming off a playoff year in 2009 after two previous misses, La Russa’s 2010 club underachieved. They had entered the season as the clear divisional favorite, but fate led to a very different conclusion. The 86-win Cardinals finished in second place, five games behind Cincinnati and did not qualify for a Wild Card, either.

The winter prior, the future Hall of Fame skipper signed his first-ever one-year deal with the team and hinted his managerial days were nearing an end. Still, with 126 more wins needed to claim second-place on MLB’s all-time managerial list, La Russa’s 2011 return was expected by many.

The most important coach on the Cardinals staff is clearly pitching guru Dave Duncan, a constant at the manager’s side for almost three decades in Chicago, Oakland and St. Louis. La Russa had stated previously that Duncan expressed interest in coaching longer than he wanted to manage.

As the regular season concluded with no new contract announcements, there may have been as much or more speculation about Duncan’s future as La Russa’s.

The pitching coach would be a highly-desirable commodity if he chose to make a new start, with or without La Russa. Scribes from across the country wondered aloud about the improvements the pitching expert might inspire if wearing the local uniform.

On October 15, Duncan declared his hand but raised his bet at the same time, stating that he would like to remain with the Cardinals for three more years rather than coach just one more year for St. Louis and elsewhere for the next two. This created an apparent mismatch with La Russa’s more short-term desires.

During this time, the winningest manager in franchise history was playing his normal contractual give and take with the Cardinals that culminated in an October 18 announcement. La Russa would return for 2011 on a one-year deal. A relatively meaningless mutual option for 2012 was also included.

In a departure from past La Russa deliberations, contracts for his coaching staff were not announced at the time of the manager’s decision. Perhaps the Duncan multi-year request was taking extra time to accommodate.

There may have been at least one other complication. One announcement that was made in conjunction with La Russa’s return was the firing of bullpen coach Marty Mason, Duncan’s right-hand man.

The long-time Cardinals employee was separated over his ongoing remarks critical of the organization’s player development processes. Interestingly, this summer Duncan had been quoted making similarly-themed comments, stating that the farm system could not support a championship club.

When all was said and done, the parties apparently worked out any major differences. On October 25, the club announced that Duncan agreed to terms on a two-year contract with a mutual option for the 2013 season.

Duncan will be entering his 16th season as the Cardinals pitching coach, and his Major League record 32nd season overall as a pitching coach. The staff finished fourth in the National League in team ERA this past season while ranking second in both fewest walks and home runs allowed. Adam Wainwright became the team’s fourth 20-game winner under Duncan’s tutelage.

La Russa’s 2010 ups and downs

Perhaps at no time in his 15 seasons as Cardinals manager had La Russa been questioned as often as during this year. It began with his controversial hire of Mark McGwire and continued as the offense under his first-year hitting coach came was inconsistent for most of the season. Many felt the club lacked timely hitting which put more pressure on the pitchers.

The manager utilized his pitcher hitting eighth approach 76 times during the season and penned 144 different lineups over 162 games. Whether that can be explained as La Russa doing everything possible to exploit matchups or incessant tinkering is a point of debate for some.

A number of those lineup changes were necessitated by roster turnover. After trying a number of minor league prospects, both pitchers and position players, the organization turned to a series of major leaguers cut loose by other clubs. In-season additions included Aaron Miles, Randy Winn, Jeff Suppan and Mike MacDougal.

While La Russa encourages aggressive baserunning, the Cardinals lost over 100 runners on the bases, too often due to poor decision-making by the players.

His name made the papers in several off-field situations, drawing complaints from some quarters. La Russa came out in support of Arizona legislation calling for tougher enforcement against illegal immigrants. In the midst of a rough August road trip, La Russa gave an introductory speech for a humanitarian award bestowed upon Albert Pujols at a large Washington, D.C. rally. Despite non-political intentions stated by all, involvement in the event caused some ill will.

Around that same time, the manager divulged to the press that Colby Rasmus had requested a trade both in 2009 and 2010, setting off a firestorm of controversy about the clubhouse environment past and present. He later made comments critical of Brendan Ryan prior to the shortstop’s trade to Seattle. The manager also reportedly lobbied for the signing of outfielder Lance Berkman.

Putting all that aside, the bottom line is winning.

The 66-year-old has guided the Cardinals to a franchise record 1,318 victories since joining them in 1996. La Russa has led the team to eight division titles (1996, 2000-02, 2004-06 and 2009), two National League pennants (2004, 2006) and the organization’s 10th World Championship title in 2006.

La Russa currently ranks third on MLB’s all-time managerial wins list with 2,638, trailing only Connie Mack (3,731) and John McGraw (2,763). La Russa is second all-time in games managed with 4,935, including stints with the Chicago White Sox (1979-86) and Oakland A’s (1986-95). He ranks first on the Cardinals all-time games managed list with 2,429 and his 15 years of continuous service is also tops among all Cardinals managers.

La Russa’s Cardinals teams have finished above .500 in 12 of his 15 seasons. They recorded 105 wins in 2004 and 100 wins in 2005, making La Russa just the second Cardinals manager to oversee two 100-win seasons. Billy Southworth guided the Cardinals to three consecutive 100-win seasons from 1942-44. La Russa and Sparky Anderson are the only managers to have led both a National and American League team to World Series titles.

During La Russa’s 15 years at the Cardinals helm, the team has surpassed three million in attendance a dozen times, including a franchise record 3,552,180 fans in 2007. His Cardinals teams have finished no lower then third place in all but three seasons.

La Russa’s Cardinals clubs posted a National League-best 913 wins during the decade of the 2000s, winning a league-leading 33 postseason games during that same time period.

For those and many other reasons, La Russa and Duncan will be back in 2011 for another run.

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #6: The Penny/Lohse injuries

On consecutive days in late May, starters Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse went down with injuries that would wreck their personal seasons and arguably that of the St. Louis Cardinals.

Many times, the magnitude of a big story is evident from the moment it occurs. That was not the case on May 22, however, despite two members of the St. Louis Cardinals starting rotation, Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse, having gone down with injuries on consecutive days.

At the time, the severity and staying power of the injuries were not fully understood, but as they lingered on, the impact on the club was felt both directly and indirectly for the remainder of the year.

Lohse’s recurring forearm problem required surgery that would sideline him until mid-August, while Penny’s shoulder ailment was originally thought to be so minor that he would miss just three weeks. In reality, Penny did not pitch again.

The Cardinals tried a series of fill-in starters but were not satisfied with their results. They included Blake Hawksworth (eight starts, 5.83 ERA) and Adam Ottavino (three starts, 7.53 ERA). P.J. Walters posted a 3.96 ERA in three 2010 starts, but had suffered his worst outing on June 1 while giving up seven runs in four innings to the Reds. He did not start again for St. Louis until the final week of the season.

By mid-June, the club had turned to former Cardinal Jeff Suppan, released by Milwaukee in his final year of a four-year, $42 million contract. The 35-year-old did a credible job for St. Louis overall, posting a 3.84 ERA in 15 games, 13 starts. He allowed two runs or less in nine starts but still managed just a 3-6 record.

Suppan was carefully deployed by the Cardinals, missing the entire month of August due to what was called a strained right groin. He was only reactivated when rosters expanded in September and pitched his best baseball during the final month as the season slipped away.

As the July trade deadline approached, the organization realized that Chris Carpenter, Adam Wainwright and Jaime Garcia were not enough starting pitching to carry them down the stretch. Penny’s return seemed increasingly unlikely, Lohse was still out and the youngsters had not impressed.

On July 31, general manager John Mozeliak made a surprise trade – an offense-for-pitching swap that would define the 2010 season. Popular right fielder Ryan Ludwick was dealt to San Diego in a three-team deal that netted the Cardinals starting pitcher Jake Westbrook. Clearly the deal would not have been necessary had Penny and Lohse been at full strength.

Westbrook did his part with St. Louis but the already-struggling offense did not rebound from the loss of Ludwick. A few days after the trade, third baseman David Freese was proclaimed out for the remainder of the season and replacements like Felipe Lopez and Pedro Feliz came nowhere near picking up the necessary slack.

The Cardinals 2010 season ended in disappointment. One can argue that the May Penny and Lohse injuries were the beginning of the end.

More on their seasons follow.

Penny’s spent

Like the 2010 Cardinals, Penny was hot to begin the season, with three wins and a 0.94 ERA through his first four starts. It all unraveled on May 21. After hitting a grand slam off the man he replaced in the Cardinals rotation, the Angels’ Joel Pineiro, Penny exited the game after three innings.

The injury was diagnosed as a strained latissimus dorsi muscle on his right side. Penny was placed on the disabled list the next day with an expectation he might be able to return in as soon as three weeks.

As the days turned to weeks and months, the organization showed increasing frustration with the lack of progress in Penny’s condition. On July 6, the 32-year-old was scheduled to face live hitters for the first time, but instead had to be shut down after experiencing discomfort. Had the workout been successful, Penny would have made a rehab start in the minor leagues in preparation to return after the All-Star break. Manager Tony La Russa called the setback “a big negative”.

That was as close as Penny came to pitching again. He did not return to game action for the remainder of the season, missing over four months and 116 games in total. Having joined St. Louis on a one-year contract, Penny is not expected to return to the club in 2011.

Lohse’s luck

Lohse battled through a second consecutive season of injury in 2010 after signing a four-year, $41 million deal following the 2008 season that includes full no-trade protection. The then-31-year-old did not start the season well, becoming the final member of the Cardinals season-opening starting rotation to record a win upon picking up his first 2010 victory on May 17.

His next start on May 22 of just 3 1/3 innings would be his last before being placed on the disabled list. On May 28, Lohse underwent fascial release surgery to relieve nerve compression in his right forearm.

Lohse’s recovery timetable was at least as mysterious as Penny’s due to no past precedence. It was the first surgery of its kind ever performed on a professional baseball player.

The right-hander would spend 84 days on the DL and even after resuming pitching, required an extended rehab. Lohse made four minor league starts, three with Triple-A Memphis and one with Double-A Springfield, pitching 19 innings of 4.74 ERA ball, culminating in his August 15 return to St. Louis.

The rest of the way, Lohse went 3-4 with a pair of no-decisions. His ERA rose from 5.89 at the time when he went onto the DL to its season-ending 6.55.

Lohse completed the season on a positive – his only scoreless outing of the year. In his 18th and final start on October 2, he went seven shutout innings against Colorado. Lohse allowed just three hits, issued four walks and fanned five.

It remains to be seen which Lohse takes the mound in 2011.

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #7: Adam the new ace

Performance on the field in 2010 seemed to confirm the passing of the torch of ‘the ace of the St. Louis Cardinals’ from Chris Carpenter to Adam Wainwright.

This past season, Wainwright stepped up his highest level of performance as a professional. The right-hander not only topped the Cardinals in almost all pitching categories, but was among the National League leaders as well. Wainwright finished second in the NL in wins (20), ERA (2.42) and complete games (five). He tied for second in shutouts, was third in innings pitched and fourth in strikeouts, while allowing the third-fewest walks per nine innings.

After coming close in 2009 with 19 victories, this was the 28-year-old’s first 20-win season. It is a milestone Carpenter reached once, during his Cy Young Award season of 2005. Both Wainwright and Carpenter were named 2010 National League All-Stars. Adam tossed a scoreless inning in the July 13 contest, won by the Senior Circuit.

What Carpenter does possess that Wainwright does not is that Cy Young Award, though the younger pitcher is on a positive trajectory, having improved his placement in the vote in each of the last two years.

Wainwright moved up to second in the 2010 NL Cy Young Award race, this time behind Philadelphia’s Roy Halladay. The Cardinals starter received 28 votes for second, three for third and one for fifth from the 32 Baseball Writers Association of America voters, two from each NL city. Halladay took every first place vote for a 224 to 122 total.

The season prior, Waino had finished third with Carpenter second in the Cy Young voting, collecting 90 and 94 points respectively. In one of the closest three-way races ever, San Francisco’s Tim Lincecum won with 100 points in the balloting. It is worthy to note Wainwright had the most first-place votes of all candidates.

Though it appeared that the 2010 competition might go down to the wire, a late-season slump doomed Wainwright’s Cy Young Award chances. Between August 18 and September 14, he went 1-5 with a 4.73 ERA.

Despite that rough period, looking at the season by months, Wainwright was amazingly consistent. He won three or four games in each month from April through September/October. His ERAs ranged from a low of 1.85 in July to a high of just 3.09 in the final period. Wainwright’s 230 1/3 innings pitched was just 2 2/3 frames short of his career peak, set the year prior.

With that milestone 20th win accomplished on September 24 and his team out of the playoff hunt, Wainwright was held out of his final start for precautionary reasons. The precise problem was vague after the pitcher attributed it to simply having slept wrong on his arm. Reports of elbow tightness and a forearm strain followed, which led to an MRI. Rest was prescribed.

The 28-year-old Wainwright completed his fourth season as a major league starter while Carpenter is now 35 years of age, having become a professional back in 1994. The two will surely be pitching for the Cardinals this coming season, but the final passing of the torch would occur if it turns out that 2011 becomes their last year together.

Carpenter is under contract through 2011 but there seems no guarantee his $15M club option for 2012 will be picked up. The club could instead pay a $1 million buyout. Wainwright is under team control through 2013 with a below-market contract wisely negotiated by general manager John Mozeliak early in his tenure.

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #8: The real Man

2010 was a big year for the greatest St. Louis Cardinal ever, Stan Musial.

One of baseball’s last surviving stars from the 1940’s received word on November 17 from The White House that President Barack Obama will award him the Presidential Medal of Freedom. Four days later, the Hall of Famer celebrated his 90th birthday.

The highest civilian award in the United States recognizes those who have made “an especially meritorious contribution to the security or national interests of the United States, world peace, cultural or other significant public or private endeavors.”

“The Man” was the beneficiary of a drive fueled by thousands of Cardinals fans and supported by elected officials who took a “Stand for Stan” stance during 2010, drawing attention to and honoring Musial’s lifetime of achievement and service.

Of course, the Cardinals organization was fully behind the effort, starting with an online petition and a variety of other interest-generating elements throughout the season.

One of the most memorable aspects of the campaign was a printable “Flat Stan the Man,” a takeoff on the “Flat Stanley Project” used for years in literacy awareness efforts. Fans and celebrities alike posing for pictures with Flat Stan the Man were widely publicized.

The national media rediscovered Musial’s greatness as exemplified by Sports Illustrated, which featured him on their August 3 cover and ran an excellent story by Joe Posnanski entitled “What Modern Baseball Can Learn from Stan the Man.”

Current Cardinals star Albert Pujols once again reminded everyone that he does not want to be called “El Hombre” out of respect for the one and only “The Man.”

“Stand for Stan Day” was held at Busch Stadium on October 2. Musial was in the house as 39,633 fans showered their support. In the middle of the sixth inning, those in attendance were asked to stand up for Stan while holding oversized Flat Stan the Man cutouts distributed at the gates. Musial had earlier made an appearance at the April 12 home opener as well.

Others named to receive the 2011 Medal along with Musial are poet Maya Angelou, President George W. Bush, investor Warren Buffett and former Boston Celtics great Bill Russell.

To read more about the many on-field accomplishments of the man we named the top player in the history of the St. Louis Cardinals franchise, click here.

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #9: The fight in Cincinnati

The St. Louis Cardinals experienced both highs and lows during a series sweep in Cincinnati on August 9-11.

Though the Cincinnati Reds were not picked by many to be in first place in the National League Central Division in 2010, that is precisely where they sat as August opened. The early leaders, the St. Louis Cardinals, had slipped to two games off the pace heading into a crucial three-game series in the Queen City that began on August 9.

Adding fire to the matchup, Reds second baseman Brandon Phillips uttered remarks critical of the Cardinals prior to game one that were not widely publicized until afterward.

“I’d play against these guys on one leg,” Phillips told the Dayton Daily News. “We have to beat these guys. All they do is bitch and moan about everything, all of them. They’re little bitches, all of them. I really hate the Cardinals. Compared to the Cardinals, I love the Chicago Cubs. Let me make this clear: I hate the Cardinals.”

In game one, Chris Carpenter blanked Cincinnati for six innings before tiring in the seventh. He did not allow a runner in scoring position until the sixth and made a seven-run fourth inning stand up for his 13th victory as St. Louis won 7-3.

Second baseman Skip Schumaker, who launched a fourth-inning grand slam in game one, may have spoken for many of the Cardinals with his reply.

“Let them keep talking and we’ll see how it plays out.”

It didn’t take long for a reaction on the field as game two began with a wild melee.

Phillips and Yadier Molina touched off the skirmish. As the Reds second baseman approached the plate to lead off the bottom of the first inning, he tapped the Cardinals catcher on the shin guards with his bat. While Phillips typically does the gesture as matter of habit, given the charged environment, Molina took exception.

“You think I’m in a good mood about the comments you made last night?” Molina said he told Phillips after kicking away Phillips’ attempt to be friendly. “Then don’t say, ‘Hi,’ to me. You are not my friend, so don’t touch me. You don’t have to touch me. That’s stupid.”

The benches and bullpens emptied, and the two managers and long-time adversaries, Tony La Russa and Dusty Baker, were among those mixing it up before being ejected and later suspended for two games each.

Here is the video from the Cincinnati television broadcast.

Carpenter, in the midst of exchanging words with his ex-teammate Scott Rolen, was among a group pushed up against the screen as the pile kept moving. The Cardinals pitcher suffered scratches on his back when he was kicked by Reds pitcher Johnny Cueto. Cueto is shown at the back in the initial camera views, but sprinted around the group to the screen before engaging. The most damage was inflicted on Cardinals reserve Jason LaRue. The former Reds catcher stepped in trying to protect Carpenter from Cueto’s flailing cleats.

“I turned around and I’ve got Cueto kicking me in the back with his spikes,” Carpenter said. “He ends up kicking my backup catcher in the face. Totally unprofessional. Unbelievable. I don’t know where that guy learned to fight.”

LaRue’s injuries included bruised ribs and a concussion, the severity of which was not immediately understood. Molina answered that day with a second-inning solo home run that helped the Cardinals take an 8-4 game two win.

Behind Colby Rasmus’ grand slam on his 24th birthday and the pitching of Adam Wainwright, the Cardinals took the much quieter game three by a 6-1 score. In sweeping Cincinnati, St. Louis reached the 15 games over .500 mark and recaptured the division lead.

Any positives for St. Louis were short-lived.

LaRue was placed on the 15-day disabled list on August 10. On the 12th, MLB announced a seven-day suspension for Cueto, the maximum sentence reportedly allowable under the current rules. The pitcher did not appeal. He effectively missed just one start, returning to action on August 21, adding insult to the injury and increasing outrage among many Cardinals fans. Cueto did not appear in the final series between the two clubs, held in St. Louis over Labor Day weekend.

LaRue was much less fortunate than Cueto. As more about the severity of his injuries became known, LaRue was moved to the 60-day DL on the 19th, officially ending his season. He ultimately announced his retirement on September 18 amid concerns over brain damage including memory loss. The 36-year-old’s career was done after 922 games and 12 MLB seasons, the first eight years served as a member of the Reds.

At the conclusion of the August series, Rasmus had noted:

“There was a lot of riff-raff going on. It might have woke a sleeping giant.”

If so, that giant was Cincinnati. The Cardinals soon gave the division lead back as the Reds ended up taking the Central by five games. The Cardinals did not again demonstrate the kind of emotion seen during the August 9-11 series the rest of the way.

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #10: Puma or Elvis?

The St. Louis Cardinals added veteran Lance Berkman to be their 2011 right fielder.

On December 4, the St. Louis Cardinals announced the signing of free agent outfielder/first baseman Lance Berkman to a one-year, $8 million contract for the 2011 season. The 34-year-old was rumored to have turned down a two-year, $16 million offer from Oakland.

Once nicknamed “Fat Elvis”, Berkman re-christened himself “Big Puma” several years ago. He is a veteran of 11-plus seasons in the majors, most of which were spent with the Houston Astros, with whom he was a key member of the “Killer B’s” from 1999 until last July 31. Berkman was traded to the New York Yankees on July 31 but was not re-signed for 2011.

Berkman has a career batting average of .296 with 327 home runs and 1099 RBI in 1,629 games. His career .409 on-base percentage is fourth among active players and his .545 slugging percentage is ranked 10th. The five-time All-Star (2001-02, 2004, 2006, 2008) holds the National League record for single-season RBI by a switch-hitter with 136 in 2006. He’s had six seasons with 100 or more RBI and hit 25 or more home runs eight times, including a career best 45 in 2006.

Berkman has performed well during postseason play, with a career .320 average, seven home runs and 30 RBI in 34 games. He batted .385 for the Astros in the 2005 World Series. Berkman initially stated a clear desire to return home to play in Houston in 2011, but the Astros were not interested.

Cardinals manager Tony La Russa has penciled Berkman into his 2011 lineup in the fifth spot, noting the new signee will protect cleanup hitter Matt Holliday as Holliday protects number three hitter Albert Pujols. Despite declining results against left-handed pitching in recent seasons, Berkman is expected to be an everyday player.

Defensively, with Pujols tethered to first base, Berkman is slated to be the starter in right field, pushing the pair of Jon Jay and Allen Craig into reserve roles. Over his career, the Waco, Texs has started more then 100 games at all three outfield positions, but few since 2004. He has made over 700 starts at first base.

A major question regarding Berkman is past knee problems and the potential impact on his defense and availability. He underwent surgery in November 2004 to reconstruct a torn anterior cruciate ligament (ACL) in his right knee. Berkman began the 2005 season on the disabled list and was not activated until May.

Berkman also had minor surgeries on his left knee in 1999 and again during spring training in 2010. He made his 2010 regular season debut on April 20. Berkman also spent time on the disabled list in 2009 due to a left calf strain.

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #11: Garcia’s emergence

Rookie left-hander Jaime Garcia surged onto the scene for the St. Louis Cardinals, winning 13 games and finishing third in the National League Rookie of the Year vote.

With the departure of veteran starting pitcher Joel Pineiro last winter, the St. Louis Cardinals were left with an opening in their 2010 rotation. Young left-hander Jaime Garcia seemed a legitimate contender – on paper at least.

Pitching coach Dave Duncan and manager Tony La Russa dampened expectations, making it clear on multiple occasions over the winter that Garcia would be better served to return to Triple-A Memphis for 2010. With the then-23-year-old coming off August 2008 Tommy John elbow ligament replacement surgery, the Cardinals braintrust wanted to protect their youngster through fewer and potentially less stressful Triple-A innings.

Garcia had returned late in the 2009 season to make nine very effective minor league appearances. Knowing his potential since he was drafted in 2005, we had named him our top prospect in the Cardinals system coming into the season.

In mid-February, Garcia reported to the major league spring training camp in Jupiter, Florida on a mission. He blew those Memphis plans out of the water by pitching so well (3.00 ERA, 20:5 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 24 innings) and with such poise that La Russa and Duncan had no choice. The native of Reynoso, Mexico would be their fifth starter.

As the regular season got underway, Garcia continued to exceed expectations. Not only did he lock down that rotation spot, he essentially became the team’s third starter alongside Adam Wainwright and Chris Carpenter.

Through the first two months of the season, Garcia made ten starts, posting an eye-catching 1.32 ERA. Providing a good reminder of the team’s struggles as a whole this past season, Garcia was pinned with two losses and three no-decisions in those outings.

During the middle third of the year, Garcia’s ERA crept up slightly, but he made just one start in which he was charged with more than three runs. At the end of July, his ERA was a run higher, but still spectacular at 2.33.

Following a couple of uncharacteristic four-run outings to begin August, Garcia pitched his best game of the season on August 22. He tossed a three-hit complete game shutout against the soon-to-be World Champion San Francisco Giants. Garcia fanned six and issued no walks.

On September 18, as a precautionary measure, La Russa announced that Garcia would be shut down for the remainder of the season. No one apparently told the pitcher the news as he reacted with surprise. After meetings with the skipper and general manager John Mozeliak, the club backed off the decision temporarily.

Without Garcia pitching in game action again, they made it official one week later.

The 24-year-old last took the mound on September 13, finishing with a stellar 13-8 record, 2.70 ERA and a 132:64 strikeout to walk ratio over 163 1/3 innings and 28 starts.

Those 13 wins, the most by a first-year National League pitcher, propelled him into being a legitimate Rookie of the Year contender, but his relatively slow finish ultimately damaged his candidacy. Garcia still came in a very respectable third in the voting.

Following the season, Garcia was selected to the 11-man 2010 Topps Major League Rookie All-Star Team and was named the Cardinals’ team Rookie of the Year as well.

While the Cardinals did not reach the playoffs with Garcia, it is difficult seeing how they could have won as many as 86 games without his rookie-year emergence. The only left-hander in the rotation seems poised to remain there for at least the next five seasons.

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #12: Herzog to the Hall

Whitey Herzog entered Baseball’s Hall of Fame and his number was retired by the St. Louis Cardinals in July.

Whitey Herzog’s 78th year on this earth was a most special one as he entered Baseball’s Hall of Fame and saw his number 24 retired by the St. Louis Cardinals.

Ever since Herzog won six division titles, three league championships and a World Series during his 18-year managerial career, he has been a big fan favorite in St. Louis. The popularity of “The White Rat” remains strong despite the fact he has not managed the Cardinals for over 20 years.

Last December, as the Hall of Fame Veterans Committee balloting was announced, only two of twenty candidates made it, including Herzog. He received 14 of a possible 16 votes after having fallen short of the 75 percent vote required for election in special balloting in both 2003 and 2007.

Whitey was formally inducted into the Hall on July 25 in Cooperstown, New York with umpire Doug Harvey. Former Chicago Cubs outfielder Andre Dawson also entered the Hall via the regular writers’ vote.

The Cardinals put an exclamation point on the recognition when they held a special ceremony on July 31 to retire Herzog’s number 24. He became just the 13th individual in the history of the franchise to be so honored.

For 18 seasons, Herzog managed in the Major Leagues, the final 11 with the Cardinals after earlier stints in Texas, California and Kansas City. Herzog received the 1985 National League Manager of the Year Award and was named 1980s Manager of the Decade by Sports Illustrated.

From 1973 until 1990, Herzog’s clubs won 1,279 games and lost 1,143 for a .532 winning percentage. He held almost every position in baseball, including player, scout, general manager, coach, farm system director and manager. In eight seasons primarily as an outfielder, he hit .257 with 25 home runs, 172 RBI and a .979 fielding percentage with the Senators, Athletics, Orioles and Tigers from 1956 to 1963.

After serving as Cardinals’ manager for part of 1980 and general manager for the other part of the year, Herzog held both positions from 1981-1982, acquiring and managing many of the players that would bring the Cardinals three World Series appearances in the decade – the 1985 and 1987 NL pennants and the 1982 World Championship. Herzog, whose teams’ style of play was dubbed “Whitey Ball”, featured speed, defense and a strong bullpen.

Herzog left managing during the 1990 season, ranking 32nd in all-time wins. His 822 victories at the helm of the Cardinals is third-most in franchise history, after Tony La Russa and Red Schoendienst.

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #13: The muddled middle

Middle infield play was a major concern for the 2010 St. Louis Cardinals. Not everyone is comfortable with the changes made for 2011.

Other than third base and pitching, the second base and shortstop positions delivered the lowest OPS on the 2010 St. Louis Cardinals at .671 and .600, respectively. The two spots had yielded respectable .746 and .736 marks the year prior.

The regular starters up the middle both seasons were second baseman Skip Schumaker and shortstop Brendan Ryan. Schumaker, a converted outfielder, is considered a below-average fielder while Ryan is known for his defense, but also for an approach that rubbed some teammates the wrong way.

One widely-discussed example occurred in sight of television cameras on August 9. Ryan was late taking the field behind pitcher Chris Carpenter because he had the wrong glove. Following the inning, a visually perturbed Carpenter called the shortstop down the dugout tunnel before reading him the riot act.

Ryan’s 2010 had begun on the wrong foot when he underwent elective wrist surgery to address chronic pain that worsened during off-season sessions he and Schumaker were having with new hitting coach Mark McGwire in Los Angeles. The early February procedure meant Ryan fell behind in preparation for the season and he later admitted that he never felt comfortable at the plate.

Ryan’s batting average hunkered below .200 for most of the first two-thirds of the season and he finished at .223. The 28-year-old had batted .292 the year prior, his first as a major league regular. Which season was the outlier became a point of concern and debate. His manager felt Ryan’s offensive struggles had been affecting his play in the field, as well.

The more-experienced Schumaker also suffered through an offensive regression in 2010. After hitting .300 in each of his first two full seasons, the 30-year-old got out of the gate very poorly. Though apparently healthy, he batted just .212 in April and didn’t manage to cross the .250 line until late June. Skip ended the year at a career-low .265. While his desire in the field has never been questioned, several advanced defensive metrics rank Schumaker among the lowest in MLB at his position.

General Manager John Mozeliak stated a desire to get more production from the middle in 2011. Post-season comments from manager Tony La Russa praising Schumaker while putting Ryan’s starting role in jeopardy clarified the team’s strategy going forward. Skip was staying and Brendan was out.

On November 30, the Cardinals acquired infielder Ryan Theriot from the Los Angeles Dodgers in return for pitcher Blake Hawksworth. Theriot, 31, had been dealt to the Dodgers at the July 31 trade deadline last summer after spending his entire big league career with the Chicago Cubs, for whom he started from 2007 into 2009. After a substandard stint with the Dodgers during which he batted a career-worst .242, Theriot had been replaced as a starter and was rumored to be a non-tender candidate.

Theriot, who has played at both second base and shortstop in his major league career, is not considered a strong defender. As the trade was announced, he was installed as the Cardinals’ new starting shortstop and quickly settled on a $3.3 million contract for 2011. That heightened focus on trading fan-favorite Ryan, who had been placed on the block earlier in the off-season.

After Mozeliak was unable to work a deal for Ryan during Baseball’s Winter Meetings, a trade was announced on December 12. The Seattle Mariners acquired Ryan for a hard-throwing but wild Class-A reliever Maikel Cleto. The relatively-low return made the dump trade even more unpopular with a vocal segment of the Cardinals fan base.

Key infield reserves in 2010 are not expected to return. Felipe Lopez, usually a second baseman, had been signed in February. He was pressed into regular third base duty during the summer and struggled mightily.  Earlier, he saw 48 games of action in the middle prior to his September release.

Aaron Miles joined the team in June and following the season left the Cardinals as a free agent for the second time. In between, among the switch-hitter’s starts were 18 at second, often against left-handed pitching. That remains an ongoing and glaring weakness of Schumaker (.211 average in 2010 and .206 career vs. LHP).

Currently slated to be the 2011 middle infield backups are a pair of farm system products with considerably less experience then their predecessors. Tyler Greene, a natural shortstop, had several short stints in St. Louis the past two seasons, while Daniel Descalso, the 2010 Triple-A all-star second baseman, made his MLB debut in September exclusively at third base.

St. Louis’ reserve second baseman in 2011 could see some sporadic starting action replacing Schumaker against lefties, though instead La Russa could easily play Skip even more regularly than in 2010 due to concerns over the inexperience of his new bench.

Behind them at Memphis will be an even greener crew that is projected to include light-hitting Donovan Solano and Double-A players Jose Garcia and Pete Kozma. The latter two are unproven at Triple-A, having yet to appear in a single game there. Solano’s Triple-A OPS last season was an uninspiring .616.

Depending on with whom you speak, the Cardinals either improved their middle infield offense and team culture for 2011 or they downgraded their defense considerably while not significantly improving their hitting.

Either way, the middle infield should remain a closely-watched area of the 2011 club.

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #15: Young bench, veteran stopgaps

Starting in June, the St. Louis Cardinals called on five minor league castoffs with below-average results.

The St. Louis Cardinals have long professed a desire to build a steady supply of low-salaried prospects to fuel the needs of the major league club. Its implementation had some major ups and downs in 2010, however.

As the minor league pipeline was tapped and soon went dry, the organization went outside for a number of 30-something veterans. Most of them performed below expectations for a 2010 Cardinals club that can be summarized similarly.

Here is a bit of how it came about.

As May concluded and the first third of the schedule was history, it was clear that the Cardinals had lost their early-season momentum. A National League Central lead that had grown to five games on May 3 had eroded to a one-game divisional deficit as June began.

Rookies Jaime Garcia and David Freese contributed out of the gate, but reserve outfielders Allen Craig and Joe Mather had been among the strugglers. Jon Jay had posted an unimpressive OPS of .625 in his first full month as a major leaguer in May.

Starting pitchers Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse went down due to injury on consecutive days in mid-May and Freese would soon be sidelined for an extended period as well. Pitchers P.J. Walters, Adam Ottavino and Evan MacLane were tried but lacked desired consistency.

Rather than continuing to exclusively call on players from Triple-A, the Cardinals instead began to turn to a series of in-season additions of fringe major leaguers no longer wanted by other clubs. They included veterans Aaron Miles, Randy Winn, Jeff Suppan, Mike MacDougal and Pedro Feliz. In each case, a younger player was returned to Triple-A to make room.

Each of the five veterans ended up playing a considerable role for the 2010 Cardinals. By necessity, several may have been asked to do more than ideal.

The three position players saw approximately 440 plate appearances in total while the two pitchers tossed almost 90 innings. Suppan was the only one of the five that delivered above-average results as measured by OPS+ and ERA+.

On June 1, the Cardinals were 30-22 (.577). The rest of the way, the club went 56-54 (.509), falling short of the post-season. While there were many favors behind the struggles, on the whole, these additions certainly didn’t spark a playoff run.

Date Added Pos Age Previous Sent down PA/IP OPS+/ERA+
6/1 Aaron Miles 2B 33 Rel Cin Allen Craig 151 73
6/5 Randy Winn OF 36 DFA NYY Jon Jay 162 89
6/14 Jeff Suppan SP 35 Rel Mil Adam Ottavino 70 1/3 102
7/28 Mike MacDougal RP 33 Rel Was MiLB Fernando Salas 18 2/3 55
8/19 Pedro Feliz 3B 35 Trade Hou Nick Stavinoha 125 32

Miles was the first notable veteran signed. The Cardinals placed the second baseman on their 40-man and 25-man active rosters on June 1. The 33-year-old had been playing with Springfield since joining the Double-A club on May 13. Released by the Cincinnati Reds in the spring, the switch-hitter signed a minor league deal with the Cardinals on April 27. Miles was given the most time at second base, but also appeared at short, third and even pitched twice.

Four days after Miles reported, on June 5, the switch-hitting outfielder Winn joined St. Louis after having been designated for assignment by the New York Yankees. The 36-year-old had batted just .213 while wearing pinstripes. Winn performed better with the bat as a Cardinal, but it became clear his defensive skills had eroded.

The next addition was Suppan, a familiar face. The 35-year-old former Cardinal returned to the team on June 14 after being released by Milwaukee. In 15 games with the Brewers, he had gone went 0-2 with a 7.84 ERA. Following eight appearances with St. Louis, Suppan was placed on the disabled list on July 31 due to a groin injury and was not reactivated until rosters expanded in September. His appearances seemed carefully selected and his work monitored closely.

On July 8, a day after their bullpen had an embarrassing meltdown in Colorado, the Cardinals added a reliever in the former MLB All-Star MacDougal. The 33-year-old right-hander had been released by Florida in spring training and opted out of his minor league deal with Washington on July 1. Upon signing with the Cardinals, MacDougal was assigned to Triple-A Memphis. On July 28, the Cardinals purchased his contract. In 17 games with St. Louis, MacDougal continued his long-established pattern of hard-throwing inconsistency.

The ongoing health problems of Freese coupled with the struggles of Felipe Lopez led the Cardinals to acquire a third baseman for the stretch run. On August 19, Class A reliever David Carpenter was sent to the Houston Astros with Feliz and cash considerations heading in the other direction. The 35-year-old Feliz was batting .221 for Houston before losing his starting job and performed even worse offensively in his brief stint with St. Louis.

Each of the five is among the team’s six free agents not expected back for 2011. (Brad Penny is the other.) Though more players could be added between now and spring camp, the current outlook for the opening-season bench once again includes a generous quantity of youngsters.

If the kids struggle, will the organization stick with them or import a new crop of golden oldies, and if so, will the results be better next time?

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #16: Zack Cox’ major league deal

The St. Louis Cardinals’ first pick in the 2010 draft received near-record money and a major league contract.

In recent years, the St. Louis Cardinals have been accused by some of being too cautious with their early draft picks. Reasons suggested include reluctance to pay over slot and a preference for finished collegians with higher floors but lower ceilings.

With two sandwich round selections in the 2010 draft due to the free agent losses of Joel Pineiro and Mark DeRosa, the Cardinals added a high schooler plus three college players, two sophomores and a junior, in the first 75 picks.

Three are right-handed pitchers, Seth Blair, Tyrell Jenkins and Jordan Swagerty, along with the organization’s top pick, former Arkansas third baseman Zack Cox. Cox, taken 25th overall as a draft-eligible sophomore, was considered by some to have been the top college hitter in the draft, yet fell to the Cardinals due to signing concerns.

On the August 16 deadline, Cox and the Cardinals agreed to a major league contract that will reportedly guarantee him a total of $3,200,000 over four years. It included a signing bonus of $2,000,000, ranked fifth all-time for an amateur with the Cardinals. It was the first major league deal given by the organization to a draftee since J.D. Drew in 1998.

To avoid using one of Cox’ three or four allowable minor league option seasons in 2010, the organization assigned Cox to the Gulf Coast League, a level of play far below his skill level. With so little time remaining in the season, he suited up for just four games there. The left-handed hitter went 6-for-15, .400, with five singles and a double. Cox drew one walk and collected one RBI.

The organization then assigned Cox to the Arizona Fall League, where his hitting coach was Springfield’s Derrick May. The AFL is considered a showplace for players on the cusp of the majors, with the vast majority having Triple-A or Double-A experience.

Initially, I questioned the Cardinals for making this aggressive move with the 21-year-old, but they really did not have other good options available. Without a fall instructional league camp, getting meaningful professional playing experience elsewhere in 2010 would have required Cox to play in an international winter league. That environment is far less controllable and therefore presents an even higher risk.

After a very slow start, Cox improved as he went along, with a .324 average and a .993 OPS over his last ten AFL games. Overall, his slash line was a middle-of-the-road .262/.333/.446 in 65 at-bats. Cox’ 14 RBI in 18 games tied for 22nd in the league. He also received defensive instruction there from Cardinals minor league field coordinator Mark DeJohn. Fielding remains the biggest question about Cox’ future.

With few third base prospects in upper reaches of the system other than Matt Carpenter, who seems slated for Triple-A Memphis, Cox’ initial 2011 destination remains up in the air. If he has a good spring camp and the Cardinals continue to be aggressive, Double-A Springfield may not be out of the question.

After all, what differentiates Cox from the organization’s first-rounder two years prior, Brett Wallace, is that major league deal. By definition, the sand will be flowing through Cox’ hourglass more quickly.

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #17: Not trading Colby Rasmus

The St. Louis Cardinals’ second-year outfielder went through some bumps and bruises on and off the field.

Since having been drafted in the first round of the 2005 draft out of high school, outfielder Colby Rasmus was the pride of the St. Louis Cardinals farm system. The now-24-year-old was twice the organization’s minor league Player of the Year and was our top-ranked prospect in the system for four years running.

In his 2009 major league debut season, Rasmus joined a post-Jim Edmonds outfield group that still included veterans Chris Duncan, Rick Ankiel and Ryan Ludwick, all of whom have since departed via trade or free agency. Rasmus competed most directly for playing time with long-time Cardinal and fan-favorite Ankiel, who struggled with injuries for much of the season.

Rasmus earned the team’s Rookie of the Year Award after ranking among first-year National League leaders in home runs (16) and RBI (52) and leading all first-year players in games played (147). Rasmus was just the sixth Cardinals rookie since 1954 to start 100 or more games in centerfield and was the team’s youngest opening day starter since Albert Pujols in 2001. He was also one of the club’s offensive leaders in their three-game post-season collapse.

In 2010, Rasmus reported to camp as the club’s clear starter in center. Once the season began, Rasmus moved from the second to the fifth spot in the batting order following David Freese’s injury. He missed time in July due to a hamstring injury and in August with a calf strain which created additional opportunity for rookie Jon Jay.

Rasmus had a good 2010 season. The centerfielder hit 23 home runs and posted an .859 OPS but needs to progress in other areas. For example, he fanned 148 times in 464 at-bats, just missing the “top” ten in the NL in that unenviable category. His defense was spotty and needs to improve with less mobile fielders set to flank him in 2011. Like the Cardinals offense overall, Rasmus lacked consistency in 2010 and as such, did not always start.

On September 5th, the Post-Dispatch summarized off-field questions concerning Rasmus while breaking some surprising news:

“The La Russa-Rasmus relationship remains a source of intrigue. During spring training Rasmus made clear the issues he confronted as a rookie. He and his father, Tony, then began a series of July hitting tutorials at a county high school that annoyed the manager. Club sources insist that Rasmus’ frustrations with La Russa led him to request a trade earlier this year and that his lengthy absence last month due to a right calf strain also resurrected concerns. The organization has long considered Rasmus untouchable in trade talks. Few dispute his talents and potential but there remains a question of toughness and willingness to accept criticism. There are those who share the same clubhouse who wonder if La Russa has “lost” Rasmus, or if Rasmus has permanently withdrawn from the taskmaster.”

In a subsequent report, the paper noted the trade request occurred on July 24 and mentioned a threat by the manager to return the player to Triple-A. La Russa confirmed the trade request and was quoted as saying Rasmus had asked out during his rookie season, as well. General Manager John Mozeliak said he was not approached about a trade and suggested they were heat of the battle discussions, the type that are common in every professional sports organization but often not reported externally.

In a widely-quoted reaction, Pujols responded sharply.

“If he doesn’t want to be here next year, we need to figure out a way to get him out of here and find somebody that wants to be here and play.”

A number of discussions occurred between the outfielder and Pujols, the manager, the general manager and likely others that reportedly led to a greater understanding of concerns from all sides. After previously having sat periodically as La Russa tinkered with his lineup, Rasmus played more regularly for the club during the final month.

At the time of the trade news, the Cardinals still fostered playoff hopes but were unable to mount a September charge to unseat Cincinnati in the Central Division or claim a Wild Card berth.

The flap generated considerable ongoing attention nationally, with some wondering if the young star and his manager could coexist. From this, trade speculation exploded across the baseball world.

Rumors of different clubs making a run at acquiring Rasmus ebbed and flowed through the remainder of the season and well into the fall, despite the club taking an on-the-record stance that Rasmus was not available. Among teams mentioned in mainstream media reports were Atlanta, Toronto, Arizona and the Chicago White Sox.

News of Rasmus selling his St. Louis area home in November was misinterpreted by some as a trade signal before it became clear that he was simply purchasing another that allowed room for his own batting cages.

With four more seasons before being eligible for free agency, Rasmus represents one of the most valuable commodities for the Cardinals, and any MLB organization – a cost-controlled player at a premium position whose productivity far outweighs his salary.

The reason he is so valuable is precisely the reason he has not and most likely will not be traded.

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #18: Big Mac’s return

The St. Louis Cardinals’ former slugger became their hitting coach, apologized for the past, and moved ahead.

What many, myself included, thought would be one of the biggest ongoing stories of the year for the St. Louis Cardinals, the return of Mark McGwire, did not have staying power. The story was on fire as the year began, but interest cooled substantially by the time the 2010 regular season was underway.

On October 26, 2009, the Cardinals announced that Big Mac was coming out of self–imposed retirement to become their full-time major league hitting coach. McGwire was not present at the news conference. As the calendar flipped to 2010, over two months had passed with no word from the ex-slugger about his present – or his past.

The results of the annual voting for Baseball’s Hall of Fame were announced on January 6, 2010. McGwire’s support remained below 25 percent in his fourth of 15 possible years on the ballot.

On January 7, McGwire’s boss and biggest supporter, manager Tony La Russa, fantasized about the prospect of activating the 46-year-old for use as a pinch-hitter during the final month of the season. La Russa quickly backtracked, calling it “half-joking, half-serious” before letting it quietly drop.

Four days later, the first step in McGwire’s carefully-crafted re-entry orchestrated by former White House press secretary Ari Fleischer began with an hour-long interview with Bob Costas on MLB Network followed by one-on-one calls to selected media members. The ex-slugger admitted past steroids use for the first time, telling Costas and millions watching on television that it was “the stupidest thing I ever did.”

Yet the confession was not entirely satisfying to many. McGwire insisted his only reason for using over a multi-year period was to help recover from injury. Further, he would not accept the common supposition that steroids positively affected his strength and his on-field results.

The next step in McGwire’s return was a speech at the team’s Winter Warm-Up event over Martin Luther King Jr. weekend that was prefaced by a standing ovation from forgiving Cardinals fans.

Even his area support was not universal. In March, Missouri lawmakers initiated proceedings to rename a six-mile section of Interstate 70 in St. Louis from “Mark McGwire Highway” to “Mark Twain Highway”.  The bill passed in both the Senate and House and was signed into law by Governor Jay Nixon in July.

During Winter Warm-Up, scores of national and local scribes and photographers were upset over a hastily and clumsily orchestrated media session that was held at the end of a crowded hotel hallway. In terms of Big Mac’s remarks, nothing new was offered.

This created raised anticipation for the opening of spring training, given the brief January session did not allow the national media full access to McGwire. As camp opened, special precautions were initiated to limit access to the new hitting coach. After McGwire spoke with scribes several times, repeating the same messages as before, the novelty quickly wore off. He then moved into business as usual mode.

During the summer, questions over the level of use of video scouting by Cardinals hitters came to light after McGwire stated his feelings that the approach was being overly-relied upon.

On the field, the members of McGwire’s offense collectively scored six more runs in 2010 than in 2009 while maintaining a flat batting average and on-base percentage – in a year in which hitting was down across the game. La Russa praised his new coach’s job performance.

Critics suggested periods of offensive inconsistency were masked in the full-season numbers. One key area of disappointment was in the middle infield, where Skip Schumaker and Brendan Ryan were McGwire pupils even prior to his hiring by the club.

After his wife gave birth to triplets in June, McGwire delivered increasingly mixed signals about his interest in returning for a second season. In an unusual move, the club announced La Russa’s new contract on October 18, but did not divulge the names of his coaches until one week later. When the 2011 staff was introduced, the incumbent hitting coach was among them.

McGwire’s second year in the job should be quieter than the first.

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #19: New farm director and minor league improvement

The Cardinals promoted a new farm director and filled key open positions following a minor league season of improvement on the field.

Though he is not the headline of either my number 19 or 20 stories of the year for the St. Louis Cardinals, team vice president Jeff Luhnow is a common thread between the two.

After a winter in which the Cardinals farm system was ranked at or near the bottom of several prominent national prospect watchers’ lists due a perceived dearth of high-ceiling talent, the summer of 2010 brought solid team play up and down the organization.

Five of the Cardinals’ seven US-based affiliates made the post-season, with one league champion crowned, the Appalachian League’s Johnson City Cardinals.

Yet almost to a man, staffers remind anyone within earshot that their primary mission is player development, one of three leadership roles Luhnow previously held. The Cardinals felt that asking one man to manage the entire minor league system, lead scouting – a hands-on role, as well as run the draft, was asking too much.

On September 16, John Vuch, a member of the organization since the late 1970s, was promoted to farm director. He now oversees all aspects of player development under the direction of Luhnow. Vuch, formerly director of minor league operations, is well-prepared for the job. He is assisted by long-time MLB executive Gary LaRocque who serves as senior advisor to player development, reporting to Mozeliak.

Vuch’s first hires include a pair of internal promotions, filling key jobs that had been vacant in recent years.

Two-time George Kissell Award winner for player development excellence, former Cardinals bullpen coach and minor league manager Mark DeJohn was named minor league field coordinator. In addition to hands-on coaching, DeJohn’s new mission includes supervision of all the Cardinals minor league teams during the season as well as running minor league spring training and extended spring training plus the fall instructional league, if held.  The field coordinator job had been open the past three years since the departure of Jim Riggleman following the 2007 season.

Derrick May has taken the role of roving hitting coordinator after serving as the hitting coach of Double-A Springfield for the past four years, and the two before that with Palm Beach (A-Advanced). Dan Radison, now on the major league staff of Riggleman’s Washington Nationals, last held the Cardinals hitting coordinator assignment. The job was unfilled during the 2010 season.

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The Cardinal Nation Blog top stories of 2010 #20: Marty Mason’s firing

The St. Louis Cardinals fired their bullpen coach and promoted his replacement from within.

Beginning with the hiring of Jeff Luhnow six years ago, there were undercurrents of dissent within the St. Louis Cardinals organization over new initiatives led by the baseball outsider.

After Luhnow took over scouting, the draft and the minor league system and general manager Walt Jocketty was fired following the 2007 season, much of the publicly-visible discord seemed to die down, as a more business-as-usual mode appeared in place.

There were still underlying issues, however. For example, late in the 2009 season, major league pitching coach Dave Duncan went public with concerns over minor league preparation of youngsters arriving in St. Louis.

Apparently, while the messages were being delivered, organizational change was not occurring fast enough for some.

Following the 2010 season, long-time bullpen coach Marty Mason, Duncan’s right-hand man, was let go by the Cardinals. The primary reason stated had little or nothing to do with Mason’s performance in his job. Instead, Mason was sent packing because of his ongoing and outspoken criticism of the organization’s player development processes.

Mason had been in his job for 11 years and employed by the organization as a coach for a quarter century. In an unusual stretch following a long period of continuity, the 52-year-old became the second member of Tony La Russa’s staff to be fired in two seasons. Hitting coach Hal McRae departed one year ago to make room for Mark McGwire.

A side benefit presented for Mason’s removal was to open up a job promotion for a deserving minor league coach, an opportunity missed when McGwire was hired from outside the organizational ranks. Mason was replaced by Jupiter-based minor league pitching coordinator Derek Lilliquist.

Lilliquist was the first internal promotion to the Cardinals major league staff since Joe Pettini was moved up from minor league field coordinator to bench coach nine years earlier. That same year, 2002, Lilliquist first joined the organization. At the age of 44, the former major league left-handed pitcher becomes the youngest coach on the staff.

Through the actions surrounding Mason’s dismissal, general manager John Mozeliak made it clear that he is expecting his entire organization to pull together.

Update: On Thursday, December 16, the Chicago Cubs named Mason their 2011 pitching coach for Double-A Tennessee.

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Counting down The Cardinal Nation Blog’s top 20 stories of 2010

Annual series looking back at the top news items affecting the St. Louis Cardinals over the previous 12 months.

It is once again time for my view of the top 20 stores across the St. Louis Cardinals Nation during this past year. Actually, I am starting the countdown a bit earlier than last year. These articles end up interspersed with more immediate posts and ran well into January 2010.

As always, the countdown begins with story number 20 and will continue until number one. To help speed up the process this time, I may post more than one story per day.

I will then wrap up the series with my prediction for the top five Cardinals stories of 2011 and audit how well I did in attempting to predict 2010’s biggest news items one year ago.

This placeholder post will carry the links to all 20 stories. A link to it as well as the top stories of 2008 and 2009 can be found via the Lists > Top Stories of the Year dropdown, located on the red bar near the top center of the page.

The Cardinal Nation Blog’s top 20 stories of 2010

20. Marty Mason’s firing
19. New farm director and minor league improvement
 18. Big Mac’s return
17. Not trading Colby Rasmus
16. Zack Cox’ major league deal
15. Young bench, veteran stopgaps
14. An even worse year at third
13. The muddled middle
12. Herzog to the Hall
11. Garcia’s emergence
10. Puma or Elvis?
9. The fight in Cincinnati
8. The real Man
7. Adam the new ace
 6. The Penny/Lohse injuries
5. La Russa and Duncan return
4. The Pujols decade
3. The big trade
 2. Holliday’s signing
1. The collapse

“Reviewing the predictions: TCN Blog’s top five Cardinals stories of 2010”

“Projected top five St. Louis Cardinals stories of 2011”

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Cardinals Winter Warm-Up autograph prices stabile

Autograph prices at the St. Louis Cardinals fan event, Winter Warm-Up, are generally flat to slightly down for 2011.

Every year at this time, I receive my package with the autograph details for the St. Louis Cardinals Winter Warm-Up. The fan event is always held over Martin Luther King weekend, this time from Saturday, January 15 through Monday, January 17.

In a just-for-fun endeavor, I look at rising and falling autograph prices from year to year. These are set by someone within the Cardinals hierarchy, and offer at least some estimation of the expected supply and demand for the autographs.

In addition, the list of those signing for free includes nearly 40 former, current and aspiring Cardinals. Also giving autographs at no charge will be a trio of former Negro League players, DeMorris Smith, Jesse Rogers and Sam Taylor.

As always, the proceeds go to charity, Cardinals Care, so the needy are the true winners. Autograph tickets will go on sale online at cardinals.com at 9 A.M. on Thursday, December 16.

Albert Pujols repeats as the highest-priced autograph at $175. Joining him at the top of the pecking order is Matt Holliday at $100 and Yadier Molina, up from last year at $90 but still down from his $100 bounty two years ago.

Top dogs 2011 2010 2009 2008 Commentary
Albert Pujols $175 $175 $175 $175 Fans would likely pay more to help on his new contract
Matt Holliday $100 $100 Why not? Boras doesn’t get 7%
Yadier Molina $90 $75 $100 $90 Stock back up after a big dip in 2010 autograph price

Newly-signed Lance Berkman looks like a nice sign at $40. Pitchers’ values are down overall, with signatures of Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright available at a lower price than in 2010. Other than Molina, Colby Rasmus is the only veteran with a price increase from last year.

Middle of the pack 2011 2010 2009 2008 Commentary
Adam Wainwright $45 $50 $60 $80 Even with drop, moved ahead of Carp
Chris Carpenter $40 $50 $60 $75 What a bargain! Price drop for third consecutive year
Lance Berkman $40 Newcomer may see high demand at this price
Tony La Russa $30 $30 $30 $30 Biggest signature was on a new contract for 2011
Colby Rasmus $30 $25 $30 $30 Back up in price after one-year dip

Jaime Garcia at $15 leads the rest of the pack. Skip Schumaker took the largest drop from year to year. Kyle Lohse and Ryan Franklin will sign for less in 2011, too. First-time WWU participants Jake Westbrook and Ryan Theriot come in at just $10.

Bargains 2011 2010 2009 2008 Commentary
Jaime Garcia $15 free Big future ahead
Skip Schumaker $10 $25 $30 $5 Ouch!
Jon Jay $10 Batting .300 means an extra $5 for his John Hancock
Ryan Theriot $10 At this price, will there be a riot for The Riot?
Jake Westbrook $10 Last year, Ryan Ludwick signed for $30
Kyle Lohse $5 $15 $25 Didn’t have to take a salary cut
Ryan Franklin $5 $10 $10 $10 Closers for $5 dollars please, Alex
Kyle McClellan $5 $5 $10 Invaluable reliever and local product, too
Jason Motte $5 $5 $10 Still working on his secondary signature
Trever Miller $5 $5 $5 Price consistent as his pitching
Mitchell Boggs $5 free No truth to rumor he is relief signer for Carpenter
Allen Craig $5 free Will he sign as a third baseman or outfielder?
David Freese $5 free Folks, please stay away from his feet!
Brian Tallet $5 Hoping they put him on the left end of the table

The ranks of the Cardinals Hall of Famers increase to three this year with the return of Bruce Sutter. While Lou Brock is also back in name, his baseballs are pre-signed.

Hall of Famers 2011 2010 2009 2008 Commentary
Red Schoendienst $75 $75 $75 $60 Still one of the greatest
Whitey Herzog $60 $60 $40 $50 Hall election and retired number, too
Bruce Sutter $75 $100 Back at a lower price
Lou Brock $75 $100 Pre-signed baseballs only

Among the past Cardinals heroes signing for a small fee is fan favorite Mike Matheny. New additions are Brian Jordan, Fernando Vina and another popular ex-Cardinal, Steve Kline.

I remember you! 2011 2010 2009 2008 Commentary
Vince Coleman $25 $10 Must have been popular in 2010
Brian Jordan $15 A nice addition this year
Ray Lankford $10 $10 Still lives in the area, I understand
Mike Matheny $10 $10 Now works for the organization
Fernando Vina $10 Last big-name Cards second baseman
Jack Clark $5 $5 $10 Off a controversial 2010 season
Steve Kline $5 Always a popular player

The article would not be complete without noting those former Cardinals who signed in past years, but are not a part of the 2011 event.

Not appearing 2011 2010 2009 2008 Commentary
Bob Gibson $125 2nd consecutive year away for Hall of Famer
Bernard Gilkey $5 $15 Maybe not missed greatly
The departed 2011 2010 2009 2008 Commentary
Ryan Ludwick $30 $40 $10 Kept by San Diego for 2011
Brendan Ryan $15 $15 $10 Now getting sleep with Seattle
Josh Kinney Free $5 $5 2006 hero now minor league free agent

Finally, here are those who will be signing for free. There are some nice names here, so don’t think you have to drop big money to snare good autographs. For example, signatures of Shelby Miller and Zack Cox won’t be free much longer, I bet.

Bryan Anderson Zack Cox Daniel Descalso Sam Freeman Tyler Greene Mark Hamilton
David Kopp Pete Kozma Lance Lynn Shelby Miller Adam Reifer Shane Robinson
Nick Stavinoha P.J. Walters Glenn Brummer John Costello Ken Dayley Chuck Diering
Neil Fiala Phil Gagliano Rich Hacker Tom Henke Rick Horton Rex Hudler
Charlie James Mike Jorgensen Jeff Lahti Tom Lawless Eli Marrero T.J. Matthews
Ed Mickelson Mark Petkovsek Jesse Rogers Ted Savage Ted Sizemore DeMorris Smith
Sam Taylor Scott Terry Mike Tyson Bill Virdon Mark Whiten

The 15th Annual Winter Warm-Up, a three-day event, will take place on Dr. Martin Luther King Jr. weekend; Saturday, Sunday and Monday, January 15-17, 2011. Three-day event passes are $40 for adults and $10 for children 5-15 years of age.

For full WWU information, including signing schedules and ticket ordering, follow this link.

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Cardinals and the 2011 Hall of Fame vote

Considering the candidacies of four former St. Louis Cardinals on the 2011 Hall of Fame ballot.

Over on the main The Cardinal Nation site on Sunday, the feature article was from friend and fellow SABR member Bill Gilbert. It handicaps the chances of the former Major League Baseball players on this year’s Baseball Hall of Fame ballot using Bill James’ Win Shares.

Four ex-St. Louis Cardinals are among the 33 names competing for votes, but Gilbert forecasts that none of the four will be elected into the Hall of Fame in 2011. Two are holdovers in Mark McGwire and Lee Smith and two are first-timers, Larry Walker (pictured upon his induction into Canada’s Sports Hall of Fame) and Tino Martinez.

Let’s look at each of the four.

Mark McGwire

By all measures, McGwire would seem to have the on-field credentials for Hall election. Voters have been torn over his candidacy due to the steroids issue and that may continue indefinitely.

Big Mac’s admission last winter that he used steroids in an attempt to recover from injury during his playing days but his denial that those substances boosted his on-field performance did not help his standing with the voters. In fact, he was one of the few players on the 2010 ballot whose support dropped from year to year. McGwire garnered approximately 23.5 percent of the vote in both 2008 and 2009, but slipped to just under 22 percent approval in 2010.

With no significant new revelations about the steroids era this past year, one might look at any uptick or downturn in McGwire’s 2011 votes to be a reflection of feelings over his return to the game. He is of course heading into his second season as the Cardinals hitting coach. At the time of 2010 balloting, there was still considerable concern over the media circus that might ensue over McGwire’s baseball re-entry. That was handled without significant incident and has died down to almost nothing since.

Lee Smith

Smith was one of the dominant relievers of any era, though his then-record of 478 career saves is downgraded by some as being a by-product of the evolution to the one-inning specialist.

Until another former Cub-Cardinal, Bruce Sutter was inducted after tossing just 1,042 career innings, no pitcher with fewer than 1,700 frames had made it to Cooperstown. Smith finished with 1,289. At this point, only five in the Hall are considered to have been primarily relievers – Hoyt Wilhelm, Rollie Fingers, Dennis Eckersley, Goose Gossage and Sutter.

Smith’s voting support has slowly crept up into the upper 40 percent range, but is far away from the 75 percent needed for induction. Despite being eligible to remain on the ballot until 2017, he is going to need a much more aggressive push of support to make it.

Larry Walker

Walker is an interesting case. Gilbert’s Win Shares score places him third among first-year candidates behind Rafael Palmeiro and Jeff Bagwell and just ahead of John Olerud. Gilbert sees Walker securing more than the five percent of the vote needed to remain on the ballot, but fall short of the needed 75 percent for induction.

The former MVP (1997) has three Silver Slugger Awards, was a five-time All-Star and owns seven Gold Gloves, yet his Hall candidacy seems in a gray area.

Of the ten players listed at Baseball-Reference.com as having the closest career similarity to Walker, only four are in the Hall. They are Duke Snider, Joe DiMaggio, Johnny Mize and Chuck Klein. On the other hand, two of the top four are Walker’s former teammates, Ellis Burks and Moises Alou, players seemingly destined to land in the Hall of the Very Good, not Cooperstown. Contemporaries in the top ten include some other borderline candidates, Vladimir Guerrero, Edgar Martinez and another duo of ex-Walker teammates, Jim Edmonds and Todd Helton.

As a point of comparison, Martinez garnered 36.2 percent of the vote in 2010, his first year of eligibility.

Tino Martinez

Needless to say, Tino Martinez is a celebrated New York Yankee who found himself in St. Louis for two unhappy late-career seasons, 2002 and 2003. Having been a very good player during four World Championships with New York means Tino may pick up a handful of recognition votes, but his numbers, including 339 home runs, are not Hall-worthy. Interestingly, among those in Tino’s top ten similarity scores is another former Cardinals and Yankees first sacker, Jack Clark.

Bios of all 33 candidates can be found at the Baseball Hall of Fame website. Results of the 2011 vote taken by 10-plus year members of the Baseball Writers’ Association of America will be announced on January 5 and winners will be enshrined on July 25 in Cooperstown, New York.

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ERA+ from the Cardinals’ big three

Looking at ERA+ marks by the St. Louis Cardinals’ top three pitchers over the Albert Pujols years.

Where we last left this discussion, there seemed no correlation between a top season by three St. Louis Cardinals offensive leaders and the club making the playoffs. My natural curiosity led me from hitting to pitching, which is the subject of this article.

For each season of the last decade, the Albert Pujols years, I selected the Cardinals’ top three starting pitchers based on ERA+, a good summary cross-season measurement. Despite the five-man rotation, I chose three because that is the same sample size previously used for the hitters. That selection will become even more clear later in this article.

For visual clarity, I left pitchers in the same column from year to year.

Year ERA+ ERA+ ERA+
2001 Morris 137 Williams 190 Kile 140
2002 Morris 117 Williams 159 An Benes* 144
2003 Morris 110 Williams 106 Stephenson 90
2004 Carpenter 124 Suppan 103 Marquis 115
2005 Carpenter 150 Suppan 119 Mulder 116
2006 Carpenter 144 Suppan 108 Reyes* 88
2007 Wellemeyer 142 Wainwright 119 Pineiro* 112
2008 Wellemeyer 115 Wainwright 133 Lohse 113
2009 Carpenter 182 Wainwright 155 Pineiro 117
2010 Carpenter 122 Wainwright 161 Garcia 145
2011# Carpenter 117 Wainwright 140 Westbrook 101

* partial season
# career averages

The first thing that jumped out at me was the passing of the torch of staff ace from Matt Morris at the end of the prior decade to Woody Williams to Chris Carpenter to Adam Wainwright, with a few gap seasons in the middle.

Another thing that caught my eye was the ever-changing names in the third column. In this case, the third is not based on salary or rotation order, but in terms of results – being one of the top three in the rotation as measured by ERA+.

It is amazing to me that while two of the top three often remained constant from year to year, the identity of the third top pitcher changed ten times in ten years!

Looking ahead to 2011, I could have assumed Jaime Garcia’s second season will be superior to Jake Westbrook’s, but I didn’t. With just one full season under Garcia’s belt, that seemed presumptuous when Westbrook already has a consistent body of work. (For completeness, Kyle Lohse’s career ERA+ is 93.)

As in the earlier analysis, I assumed career ERA+ marks for Westbrook, Carpenter and Wainwright next season.

Summing the top three pitchers’ annual ERA+ marks and ranking the seasons from high to low provides this:

Rank Year ERA+ ERA+ ERA+ Total Playoffs
1 2001 Morris 137 Williams 190 Kile 140 467 yes
2 2009 Carpenter 182 Wainwright 155 Pineiro 117 454 yes
3 2010 Carpenter 122 Wainwright 161 Garcia 145 428 no
4 2002 Morris 117 Williams 159 An Benes* 144 420 yes
5 2005 Carpenter 150 Suppan 119 Mulder 116 385 yes
6 2007 Wellemeyer 142 Wainwright 119 Pineiro* 112 373 no
7 2008 Wellemeyer 115 Wainwright 133 Lohse 113 361 no
8 2011# Carpenter 117 Wainwright 140 Westbrook 101 358 TBD
9 2004 Carpenter 124 Suppan 103 Marquis 115 342 yes
10 2006 Carpenter 144 Suppan 108 Reyes* 88 340 yes
11 2003 Morris 110 Williams 106 Stephenson 90 306 no

* partial season
# career averages

Four of the top five seasons were playoff years, with 2010 the lone exception. 2011 slots in at number eight of 11, but if Garcia’s career ERA+ of 133 was used instead of Westbrook’s 101, the additional 32 points would vault the 2011 projection up to number five.

Not wanting to prolong this process, I did take it one final step to try to tie up the loose ends. I am going to list it here rather than running yet another similarly-themed piece tomorrow.

In perhaps some bad chemistry, I added the OPS+ of the top three hitters each year to the ERA+ of the top three starting pitchers and re-ranked the Pujols years.

Rank Year OPS+ ERA+ Total Playoffs
1 2009 463 454 917 yes
2 2001 423 467 890 yes
3 2010 454 428 882 no
4 2002 452 420 872 yes
5 2004 499 342 841 yes
6 2008 464 361 825 no
7 2005 435 385 820 yes
8 2011# 452 358 810 TBD
9 2003 485 306 791 no
10 2006 444 340 784 yes
11 2007 381 373 754 no

# career averages

While the top years changed slightly, the end result was similar to the pitchers’ in that four of the top five scoring seasons ended with a playoff berth. Whether there is real correlation here, coincidence or something in between, I don’t know.

[poll id=”15″]

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OPS+ from the Cardinals’ big three

Looking at OPS+ marks by the St. Louis Cardinals’ top three hitters over the Albert Pujols years.

In the previous post, we looked at the potential of the St. Louis Cardinals’ middle three hitters in 2011, Albert Pujols, Matt Holliday and Lance Berkman, through a comparison of their career milestones to the famous 2004 MV3 of Pujols, Jim Edmonds and Scott Rolen.

In that analysis, I left Pujols out since the aggregate of his numerous accomplishments since 2004 would have tipped the balance too strongly in favor of the 2011 trio.

For the poll topic at the conclusion of the article, I slipped in a list of other top Cardinals duos during the Pujols era, asking readers to select the “best”. In a close race, at the time I type this, the pair having received the most votes was from 2005, Edmonds and Larry Walker.

Not being entirely satisfied where I left the subject, I decided to make another quick run at it. In this case, I summed the OPS+ of Pujols and his two most productive counterparts each season since Albert’s 2001 debut.

By definition, using OPS+ provides only a high-level offensive view, but it does allow Pujols’ yearly numbers to be included. For a 2011 projection, I simply listed the career OPS+ marks of Pujols, Holliday and Berkman.

Rank Year OPS+ OPS+ OPS+ Total Playoffs
1 2004 Pujols 172 Edmonds 170 Rolen 157 499 yes
2 2003 Pujols 187 Edmonds 160 Rolen 138 485 no
3 2008 Pujols 190 Glaus 124 Ludwick 150 464 no
4 2009 Pujols 189 Holliday* 169 Ludwick 105 463 yes
5 2010 Pujols 173 Holliday 149 Rasmus 132 454 no
T6 2011# Pujols 172 Holliday 135 Berkman 145 452 TBD
T6 2002 Pujols 181 Edmonds 158 Renteria 113 452 yes
8 2006 Pujols 178 Rolen 126 Duncan 140 444 yes
9 2005 Pujols 168 Edmonds 137 Walker 130 435 yes
10 2001 Pujols 157 McGwire 105 Drew 161 423 yes
11 2007 Pujols 157 Duncan 114 Ludwick 110 381 no

* partial season
# career averages

Not surprisingly, the MV3 in 2004 earned their reputation with the highest OPS+ total of the Pujols years. The same three also logged the second-best OPS+ total the year prior.

If Pujols, Holliday and Berkman each post career-average seasons for them in 2011, their total OPS+ would rank only in a tie for sixth over the last 11 years.

Then again, it doesn’t seem to matter all that much in the big picture. As the far right column indicates, having three players with high OPS+ marks does not correlate well with the entire 25-man roster reaching the post-season. Three of the top five seasons by this measure were non-playoff ones, 2003, 2008 and 2010.

Further suggesting a lineup with depth (and good pitching) may be more important than having three offensive stars is the fact that the Cardinals reached the playoffs in four of the lowest five OPS+ total years. The 2005 reader voting favorite ranks ninth in this measurement despite the club having won 100 games and the 2006 World Champions are eighth of 11.

Earlier I made the assumption that Holliday and Berkman will be the among the Cardinals’ top three contributors in 2011, joining Pujols. What do you think?

[poll id=”14″]

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Could a new Cardinals MV3 appear in 2011?

How does the current middle of the St. Louis Cardinals lineup compare to their 2004 predecessors?

With the addition of free agent Lance Berkman, the St. Louis Cardinals will have a formidable middle of the order. Manager Tony La Russa has the former Houston star penciled into the fifth spot in his 2011 lineup behind incumbent all-stars Albert Pujols and Matt Holliday.

Memories return to the 2004 season, a time when the club had three offensive heroes, a trio that performed so well that they may have canceled each other out in the National League Most Valuable Player voting – yet still finished 3-4-5. Pujols, then 24 years of age, was joined by Scott Rolen and Jim Edmonds.

It was the last time a noteworthy label stuck to the offense, as the three were called the “MV3.”

Could the new group justify the return of the moniker or perhaps earn a new tag of their own? Of course that remains to be seen on the field in 2011, but based on career numbers, the idea is not crazy.

A long-time member of Houston’s “Killer B’s,” Berkman will be one year older next season than Edmonds was in 2004, 34. That season, Rolen was 29, two years younger than Holliday will be in 2011. Obviously, the constant is Pujols, with six more stellar years of performance logged since 2004, including three MVPs of his own.

Putting Albert aside, let’s look at how the two pairs stack up using career accomplishments through 2004 and 2010 as a comparison. The Triple Crown categories of batting average, home runs and RBI along with Gold Gloves as a defensive indicator follow. The first three measures especially are often cited in MVP-worthiness comparisons.

2004 MV3 Pujols Rolen Edmonds Rolen+Edmonds
NL MVP rank 3 4 5
Age 24 29 34
# .300 years 4 1 5 6
# 30 HR yrs 4 3 5 8
# 100 RBI yrs 4 5 4 9
# Gold Gloves 0 6 7 13
2011 MV3? Pujols Holliday Berkman Holliday+Berkman
Age 31 31 35
# .300 years 10 7 4 11
# 30 HR yrs 10 2 5 7
# 100 RBI yrs 10 4 6 10
# Gold Gloves 2 0 0 0

Batting average. Led by Holliday’s seven years with a .300 or higher average, the 2011 pair has substantially more such seasons than did Pujols’ 2004 cohorts at the time.

Home runs. This is a very close category, with the 2004 duo holding a slight eight seasons to seven edge.

RBI. Berkman’s six 100-plus RBI years puts the 2011 pair barely ahead, ten to nine.

Gold Gloves: This is a blowout. Neither Holliday nor Berkman own a single fielding excellence award, while Rolen and Edmonds already had 13 Gold Gloves between them by 2004.

Of course, the past is just that. It remains to be seen if Berkman can return to his previous level of offensive prowess while dealing with the demands of returning to full-time outfield duty.

For a rebirth of the “MV3” to follow, it would be required as the 2011 Cardinals clearly need this group to hit.

[poll id=”10″]

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A very different Colby Rasmus coming in 2011?

The St. Louis Cardinals are reportedly remaking Colby Rasmus into a 175-pound opposite-field slash-and-run hitter.

Last time, I presented a potential batting order for the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals based on the manager’s comments, past behavior and of course, supposition.

One key element around which I worked was the lineup placement of soon-to-be third-year player Colby Rasmus. This may have been the most debatable point in the discussion that followed. My thought process placed the centerfielder in the second spot, while a number of others see him more appropriately batting sixth or seventh.

Part of what guided me to consider Rasmus in the number two hole was awareness of a change in his hitting approach currently underway. While hitting style is not hard-wired to one’s spot in the order, think about it in the context of what follows and draw your own conclusion.

Colby’s father, RCWarrior, shared some of the specifics here at The Cardinal Nation Blog the other day. All the quotes that follow are from Tony Rasmus, a successful high school baseball coach in Alabama.

“Colby has been working on spraying the ball around the field this offseason via the Big Mac approach. Hasn’t been lifting since the plan is to be a slap hitter so there is no need for the added muscle. The goal I hear is to hit .300 and hit more ground balls and line drives the other way.”

Since becoming a professional in 2005, Rasmus has hit .300 just once, in Single-A ball in 2006. The left-handed hitter was a career .277 batter in the minor leagues and posted a .251 average in his rookie season with St. Louis, followed by a .276 mark in 2010.

He’s always gotten on base, with a career minor league OBP of .366. He slipped to .307 in his rookie season before improving to .361 in 2010.

More from RCWarrior.

“… I’m curious to see this new hitting style at work. What they’re telling me is Colby most likely won’t hit 10 jacks this year but will be more consistent. I’m told that he will look alot like Jon Jay without all the pre swing motion. More like the Skip (Schumaker) and Jay stuff to left field. IT will be curious to watch.”

In 2007 with Double-A Springfield, Rasmus clubbed a system-high 29 home runs and hit a total of 39 in his initial pair of seasons as a big-leaguer, including 23 in 2010.

In case it wasn’t clear, this change is apparently a long-standing wish from the coaching staff.

“Its what Tony (La Russa) has wanted him to do evidently for the last few years. Stop trying to pull the ball and be more like Skip with the other way stuff and working on hitting more ground balls. It is interesting to hear him say he is supposed to inside out everything and hit 80 % of all balls to the left side. Its the one handed swing that Brendan (Ryan) was working on last year. I haven’t watched him hit he has just been telling me about it.”

A lighter, more agile Rasmus will debut next spring.

“…he is on the Cardinals program this year and thats what they want him working on. He’s always lifted with our team as we are a big believer in lifting weights but this year with the different hitting approach they don’t want him too muscled up.

“The example I was given was they want him to be loose like Rod Carew used to be with the hands and slap those singles past the third baseman. He was joking yesterday that it was gonna be a learning experience this year, hopefully not as painful as was Skip and Brendan’s was last year when they tried the Big Mac hitting style.

“He weighed in yesterday at 180 lbs and is running 5 miles a day trying to get quicker and lose a little more. Wants to be at 175 by spring training. He is working the abs but nothing else in the weight room. Gonna try to be a Brett Gardner slap it and run. I believe he was 205-210 at the start of spring training last year so he will be a different player this year thats for sure.”

[poll id=”13″]

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Setting the 2011 Cardinals batting order

Looking for clues as to the most likely batting order for the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals.

A recent Post-Dispatch article touted in detail a number of reasons why new St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Lance Berkman should bat second in manager Tony La Russa’s 2011 order. Perhaps after that article was complete, the skipper mucked up the works by stating his intent to put Berkman in the fifth spot, and as cleanup hitter in the rare occasion that Matt Holliday sits out.

La Russa has repeated the same thoughts in multiple radio interviews since while acknowledging he understands why some think that Berkman’s .400 OBP would also be appealing near the top. Ultimately, he explained his prevailing need is for a hitter behind Holliday to protect him as does Holliday for Albert Pujols.

Though La Russa seems clear about Pujols-Holliday-Berkman at 3-4-5, he hasn’t divulged his entire 2011 order. With the rest being open to speculation, it provides the basis for this article.

One line of thinking is that with the switch-hitting Berkman likely batting from the left side most often, there would be value in following him with a right-handed hitter in the number six spot.

Prior to his untimely injury last season, right-handed hitting David Freese was the regular fifth-place hitter and he also batted sixth and seventh less frequently. If finally healthy and productive, one might see Freese as that right-handed hitting #6 behind Berkman.

If so, where would this leave the man who took over the fifth spot and ended up batting there the most often for the club in 2010, left-handed hitting Colby Rasmus? The centerfielder also appeared in the second and sixth spots at times last season.

During a Tuesday evening KMOX radio interview during which he again explained his preference to hit Berkman fifth, La Russa did not state where Colby will be in his new order, but implied fifth may not be it. The manager said he would have to “see how Colby has progressed,” noting that with the fifth spot comes “a lot of responsibility.”

My bottom third would consist of Yadier Molina, Skip Schumaker and the pitcher, perhaps with the latter two reversed if La Russa feels the need to demonstrate his individuality again this coming season.

That would leave the top two spots for newcomer Ryan Theriot, he of the .348 career on-base mark and the last man standing, Rasmus. Despite Theriot expressing a clear preference to bat second (repeated several times before also mentioning leadoff) during a Tuesday evening KMOX interview, the new shortstop seems the likely first hitter. In the aforementioned interview, Theriot attributed his poor 2010 to being asked to become more of a run producer than a tablesetter, which he said he said he tried, but was neither comfortable nor successful in the role.

As noted in the Post-Dispatch article we started with above and many times over the prior years, La Russa craves “danger” from his number two hitter. My conclusion is the player in that spot will be Rasmus. Can Colby consistently provide that danger in 2011?

In the beauty of symmetry, two right-handed hitters would follow each lefty in this proposed order.

1 Theriot SS RHH
2 Rasmus CF LHH
3 Pujols 1B RHH
4 Holliday RF RHH
5 Berkman LF SH
6 Freese 3B RHH
7 Molina C RHH
8 Schumaker 2B LHH
9 Pitcher P RHH (exc Garcia)

How do you see it?

[poll id=”12″]

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