I can understand why you guys would be leery of large Cardinal contracts, given recent history. I’m always a bit skeptical of lengthy or pricey pitcher contracts. But a detailed side-by-side comparison of two MLB starters should show why in this particular instance I’m real happy with the Mikolas deal for the Birds.
Pitcher A threw 200 innings in 2018 with an ERA of 3.15, which was a ballpark-adjusted ERA+ of 137.
Pitcher B threw 200 innings in 2018 with an ERA of 2.83, which coincidentally was also an ERA+ of 137.
Pitcher A turned 29 last summer, and Pitcher B turned 30. Pitcher A has a solid average fastball and an elite slider. And so does Pitcher B. Pitcher A has a career ERA+ of 109, and Pitcher B has a 108.
Pitcher A threw 189 innings in 2017, and Pitcher B threw 188. Both pitchers are sturdy and rather tall, but not too tall, at 6’3″ for A and 6’5″ for B.
So to this point we have two starting pitchers with astonishingly similar, in fact virtually identical track records and personal profiles for all intents and purposes. But let’s see how they project, going forward.
If we average together the four publicly available 2019 projections for the two pitchers — ZiPS, Steamer, Clay Davenport, and the Marcels forecast at Baseball-Reference — we get 181 innings with a 3.64 ERA for Pitcher A, and 175 innings and a 3.66 ERA for Pitcher B. Again, very nearly identical.
Pitcher A just signed a 6-year and $140M in free agency. (As you’ve probably guessed, Patrick Corbin.)
Pitcher B, well you already know about Pitcher B because he’s Miles Mikolas.
Am I arguing that Mikolas would have gotten $140M or six years on the open market? Naaah. But he would have gotten much more than what he got from the Cards, I have zero doubt of that. All in all, it’s a good contract for the Lizard King, and a superb one for the Cards. In my opinion.
Good baseball players are expensive, and every contract is a gamble, but according to the available information the Birds got an excellent pitcher for the price of a merely very good one. In fact, Miles Mikolas at $17M per year? At that rate I kinda wish they’d signed him for another season. Or maybe even two. The price is that nice.