- This topic has 42 replies, 13 voices, and was last updated 7 years, 7 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
Updated
Folks, I would appreciate you taking a look at this and giving me your view/opinion/criticism/etc.
I have been thinking a lot about the stated preference of the Cardinals to get more left-handed hitting. Of the two players who appear to be most available, Harper is a LHH and Goldschmidt is not.
Not being satisfied by this, I looked at their career splits. Not surprisingly, Harper hits RHP somewhat better than Goldy, 45 points of OPS better. However, Goldy hits LHP FAR batter than Harper, 226 points of OPS better.
That led to me wanting to quantify this. So I looked at the total number of plate appearances the Cards as a team took last season against RHP and LHP. The split is just about 75-25.
I multiplied each player’s career OPS split by the PA split to come up with their projected StL OPS.
Goldschmidt = (.899 x .744) + (1.022 x .256)
Harper = (.944 x .744) + (.796 x .256)If my logic is sound, it seems to indicate Goldy’s advantage over LHP is worth more points of OPS. So even though Harper is a LHB and has a better OPS against RHP, Goldy would have a higher overall OPS.
(Assumptions are that they would maintain their career numbers and would see the same 75-25 RHP vs. LHP in the future.)
What do you think? Am I all wet here? I know the math is accurate (spreadsheet), but what about the logic?
Career OPS vs. RHP vs. LHP Goldschmidt 0.899 1.022 Harper 0.944 0.796 Difference 0.045 0.226 PA by StL team 2018 4615 1585 PA by percent 0.744 0.256 Goldschmidt StL OPS 0.930 Harper StL OPS 0.906 You are correct, but keep the frame of relevance constant (either subtract Harper from Goldschmidt or subtract Goldschmidt from Harper).
You can then express the Impact of Difference as a percentage. And yes, from a hitting perspective, Goldschmidt would be better than Harper.
The logic would be better if you also looked at who they replaced in the lineup and their stats. Goldy would be Gyrko most likely. Harper would be Fowler? O’neil? Martinez?
I took another view to directly calculate their projected StL OPS. In highsight, I should have made a new post rather than overwrite the first one. Oh well.
Please recalibrate your comments.
CC, I get your thought of comparing to players they would replace, but I want to initially focus on the one player vs. the other because that is the decision on the table (I am assuming). A future step could be to try to compare who they would replace for net lineup benefit, but that would require estimation and be open to considerable debate. Just trying to get basics first.
Update #3
OK, C2016 helped me realize this my work is not that profound. In this table, I added their career OPS to date for comparison. The StL splits would not change Goldy’s career OPS, while Harper’s would increase six points.
But, overall as C2016 said, Goldschmidt has been a better career hitter, anyway.
Career OPS vs. RHP vs. LHP Goldschmidt 0.899 1.022 Harper 0.944 0.796 Difference 0.045 0.226 vs. RHP vs. LHP PA by StL team 2018 4615 1585 PA by percent 0.744 0.256 overall overall Goldschmidt StL OPS 0.930 0.930 Goldschmidt career OPS Harper StL OPS 0.906 0.900 Harper career OPS CC, here is what you suggested. Because RF was such a block hole, Harper offers the much greater improvement. Though it does beg the question whether the team would keep playing Fowler as long in 2019 if he kept hitting as poorly as in 2018. I can’t imagine even with no personnel changes that RF will come in under .700 again.
overall overall Goldschmidt StL OPS 2019 0.930 0.906 Harper StL OPS 2019 StL 3B OPS 2018 0.820 0.697 StL RF OPS 2018 Improvement 0.110 0.209 Improvement If you think 2017 was more representative, then Goldschmidt has an edge, though not huge.
overall overall Goldschmidt StL OPS 2019 0.930 0.906 Harper StL OPS 2019 StL 3B OPS 2017 0.768 0.764 StL RF OPS 2017 Improvement 0.162 0.142 Improvement Here is what I ended up with. Thanks to CC and C2016 for your comments.
"Forget the Bucks – Would Harper or Goldschmidt Give the #stlcards a Bigger Bang?" (free) https://t.co/dW8XeC8Tys pic.twitter.com/fNd8ybDI4f
— Brian Walton (@B_Walton) December 4, 2018
Well, from Goold’s chat, we know DeWitt won’t sink $400 million into Harper.
We also saw that once young players formerly of the Cardinals got playing time, they did pretty well (Adams, Voit, Grichuk).
So, how big is the improvement of just going from Dexter Fowler in right field to Tyler O’Neill?
The best answer is probably just to release Dexter Fowler, go with a Wisdom/Gyorko platoon at 3rd, O’Neill in RF, maybe acquire somebody like Joe McCarthy from the Rays to give us left-handed thump in the outfield.
And JMart needs to be traded to a team that needs a DH.
C2016…your team probably wins 80-83 games and is a tear down candidate.
It’s go big or bust, for me. I’m not BDW so I don’t care about payroll, and this team is very under their ability to spend.
Tyler O’Neill had an .803 OPS and Patrick Wisdom had .882 in 2018 (yes, small sample sizes, but you never know what you have unless you give them a shot).
Make a trade for Kluber roll with a starting rotation of Kluber, Carlos Martinez, Flaherty, Mikolas and Weaver/Hudson/Reyes.
Fortify the bullpen with Familia, Herrera, Jennings, Avila, etc. Dump marginal players like Shreve who never should have been tendered.
But reality is, DeWitt’s never going to spend $300 million on Harper if he can’t bring himself to dump Fowler.
The moves 2016 aren’t the exact moves I would make but there is no reason that with slightly better bullpen, better health, and making up what Fowler and Holland cost us that even without a major upgrade this team is capable of 90+ wins.
I don’t think enough has been said about the intangibles, specifically, how well these players get along with other players. All anyone has to do is google ‘Harper overrated’ and they’ll see that Harper is at the top of most of the ‘overrated’ lists. The Athletic did an informal survey last season and found that Harper was far and away the most ‘overrated’ player. So does this mean that Harper is not as good as everybody thinks he is? No, it doesn’t. What it means is that his peers don’t like him enough to say something nice about him. Rather, they say he’s ‘underrated’. IMHO, what this boils down to is that Harper would bring with him a less than desirable affect on the clubhouse. Stating the obvious, baseball is a team sport, and the players need each other to win games. Couple that with the reality that Harper wants a contract for 10 years, and I would go with Goldschmidt over Harper. Goldschmidt is something of a ‘golden boy’. You never ever here anything bad said about him. I realize that all of this is highly subjective, but its still worth giving some attention to. You can’t quantify the human element, and no one ever will be able to because human beings bring with them that sometimes confounding characteristic of free will.
I would take Goldschmidt over Harper every day of the week. Most stats indicate he is the better player. Harper, while obviously a good player, has benefited from a huge marketing campaign ever since he was 19 years old. Goldschmidt, while playing in a lower key market and a different time zone, has quietly been one of the top 5 players in MLB over the last several years. The age factor and lack of team control are negatives for Goldy but I believe he has several good years left.
Upgrading the IF would actually make the offseason easier for the FO because they wouldn’t have to worry about eating the Fowler money. If we go big at 1B or 3B then keeping Dexter on the roster would be more palatable, as long as it is a big upgrade (not Moose or Seager).
Goldschmidt would be the obvious upgrade. Machado would too. I know most people on this board don’t want Machado but I think he makes more sense for this roster than Harper does.
Harper is younger and only cost money. Will they sign the then 32 yr Goldy to long-term contract? If Harper is not worth 10 years at 26, how many years will it take to keep Goldy? Cano got 10 at 32 and Goldy is better than Cano. So hello Goldy until 41!
If we go big at 1B or 3B then keeping Dexter on the roster would be more palatable, as long as it is a big upgrade (not Moose or Seager).
I don’t see how keeping Fowler on this roster is palatable at all.
I like Machado as much as you do Harper. I think Harper is better and makes much more sense than Machado or Goldy. But no worries Harper is not coming here and thankfully neither is Machado. I am not for trading for Goldy at all but that would be the most likely scenario. To each his own.
Agree NJ… none will be with the Cards in ’19. Of the three Harper would solve the most needs for this team. The Cards need a face.
I still don’t really understand with our outfield depth why we are in on Harper and not Machado? He seems like a more natural fit with the current team.
Goldy – You will have to give up prospects to get and then give him a long term contract at the age of 32. This will also move Carp to 3rd and that would weaken our infield defense.
Harper – Will cost a big long term contract and plays a position that we currently have the most depth at not only at the big league level but in the minors also.
Machado – Will cost big long term contract and has what seems to be on field attitude issues? But fits the teams needs middle order bat and a SS/3B
I still don’t really understand with our outfield depth why we are in on Harper and not Machado?
I think most of us here don’t really believe we are really in on either Machado or Harper. Yeah, the Cardinals will probably make an offer to one of them. No, it won’t win the deal.
But the improvement from Fowler to Harper is much greater than the improvement from Gyorko to Machado. And players who say hustling is not their cup of tea aren’t the best clubhouse leaders.
The only way a Goldschmidt trade makes sense is if it also involves swapping Fowler & Greinke.
Taking into account the type of individuals they seem to be, and the financial aspects, I would
put Goldy way above Harper or Machado. Let him get used to Cardinal tradition (and the adoring fans) and
try to extend him before he becomes a FA.I like Goldschimdt but I question taking on a 32 year old 1B and hoping for a extension.Harper makes long term sense to me.O`Neill can take over LF in 2019 when/if Ozuna goes FA.Harper will still be in his prime when Gorman,Montero, and Luken Baker all reach STLouis.Cards lose Carpenters contract after next season unless they pick his option.Molina off the books in 2 years,Waino after 2019,Wacha,maybe Mikolas after 2019 so any financia commitment to Harper can be somewhat offset by expiring contracts.Even with Arbitration for some players it will still be cheaper than Molina,Wacha,Carpenter,Ozuna etc contracts.So I say Harper.Why not both?
The wildly optimistic types on Twitter are also calling for both. I would bring folks back to a Bill DeWitt III quote from a few weeks ago, in which he said they could get Harper, but to do so, they would have to put all of their eggs in one basket. That excited a lot of people at the time, but to me it explained why they won’t get Harper – and certainly not both Harper and Goldschmidt. This is the Cards we are talking about, not the Yankees or Dodgers.
The Goold tweet which includes the exact quote is on page 2 of the Harper thread.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.