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2019 salary estimates from MLB Trade Rumors:
Marcell Ozuna – $13.4MM
Michael Wacha – $6.6MM
Dominic Leone – $1.3MM
Chasen Shreve – $1.2MM
Greg Garcia – $900Khttps://www.mlbtraderumors.com/2018/10/mlb-arbitration-salaries-2019.html
Mlb trade rumors is historically really good at this but I’ll take the over on all of these. Particularly Wacha.
I wonder why they dont list Bowman (super 2) and Lyons (particulary since Bowman is still on the 40 man roster).
Two others of note.
Pham $4.0 million
Arenado $26.4 million.I’d take the over on Pham and the under on Arenado
Lyons was removed from the 40-man roster in August, so would not be eligible, even if he was still in the organization, but he is not, having already become a free agent.
Maybe they are waiting to get official service time info on the Super Twos.
I think your over-under bets on Pham and Arenado are pretty safe.
(P.S. I predict Pham’s honeymoon in Tampa will end as soon as the first salary figures are exchanged. Last year, both Odorizzi and Hechavarria took the Rays to hearing and won, only to be traded away shortly after. Odorizzi’s difference from the team offer was just $250K and Hech’s was $550K. Odorizzi had two seasons remaining before free agency while the SS was in his last year, which surely contributed to the latter being traded.)
I dont remember…was the extension the Cardinals offered Pham reported? ANyone know what it was? Seems he was bent out of shape about what we offered (insulted is probably too harsh)
I believe I saw a report that the Pham contract offer was 2/4. If trade rumors is right he will get only slightly more than that over the two years. If he hadn’t had a resurgence after the trade he probably would be right on that number or slightly below.
If I recall correctly, Pham’s issue was that he wanted a long-term offer like DeJong, Piscotty, Wong and others. He was reportedly offered two years and turned it down. I do not know the money.
I know I read a link to a story(I think it was Langosch) reporting the offer was 2/4 million total. That number is a slap in the face because it essentially means the team was betting against Pham. At the time Pham and agency stated that the numbers didn’t add up for him to sign. Pham was basically quoted as saying he was betting on himself. Well, that bet will pay off for him financially at least. I think it likely was a disrespectful offer and if true, the disdain people have for him sticking up for himself is silly.
TLB, please explain why you believe 2/4 is disrespectful.
Pham made $570K this year. Cots estimates he will get $4 MM next year. That would be a total of $4.57 MM for two years vs. the supposed $4 MM offer from the Cards for the same time period (made a year earlier with fewer knowns).
IMO, Pham’s profanity-laced tirade about the front office showed far less respect than their contract offer. However, this has been already debated up and down and no one is likely to change anyone else’s mind at this point.
The Super Two cutoff date for arbitration-eligible players in #MLB has increased to 2 years, 134 days of service time, according to a source. That’s up from 2.123 a year ago.
— Jerry Crasnick (@jcrasnick) October 25, 2018
Noon CT today is the deadline for teams and players to file their respective amounts for arbitration. The three remaining Cardinals are Wacha, Ozuna and Leone. The Cardinals have a policy (as do many other teams) that they will take the player to hearing next month if there is no agreement by today, rather than continuing to negotiate in the interim. Wacha lost his hearing two years ago.
With today’s deadline, there will be a stream of signing announcements across MLB today. Not free agents – just these arbitration-eligible players avoiding a potential hearing. Deadlines can be good to force action. This is one of those cases, IMO.
I wonder how many of those whose contract is expiring will get qualifying offers in 2020. Assuming performance and health is therein 2019. Certainly Goldschmidt, Ozuna, and Mikolas seem pegged for an offer pre 2019. Wacha seems more likely someone to get traded at deadline, or could be in line for an extension like those above. Wachas’ 2019 salary seems pretty low, and would take a big jump to a qualifying offer. I certainly hope they get extensions Goldschmidt and MIkolas. And I guess how well Ozuna plays will determine his fate along with other outfield prospects who could be his replacement like Thomas, O’Neill, Garcia or Arozarena. Arozarena might have the toughest climb since he is not on the 40 man roster.
And I guess Carpenter could be a free agent after 2019, but his chances of getting a qualifying offer seems lesser.
Good comment 27. Not that I agree with every opinion (IMO Wacha will return to his early successful days and is a keeper)… just a well explained set of thoughts.
I agree. Very good analysis 27.
Obviously they will try to extend Goldy. If not he will get the QO.
Ozuna will get a QO because he would most likely decline it. Of course if he has a monster season they may try to extend him.
Wacha could go either way. It is true that he might be tempted to take the QO since it would be such a jump in salary but if he has a big year in 2019 then he might feel he can get a good multi year deal in FA, in which case it would make sense to offer him the QO.
Mikolas could also go either way. If he duplicates his 2018 numbers then he will obviously want a multi year deal.
We could potentially end up with several comp picks after next season.
I do not think Carpenter could be qualifying offer eligible for 2020. He has a contract for that season unless he is bought out. If he is bought out, the Cards give up their rights. I don’t think they can buy him out and turn around and slap a QO on him. At least that is my quick interpretation.
On the others, I think they will try to sign both Mikolas and Goldy ahead of time, but if they reach FA, then yes, they will get QOs. Same with Ozuna, but not Wacha, who will walk.
#STLCards, Michael Wacha settle at $6,350,000 plus $100K at 175 IP, avoiding arbitration, source tells The Athletic.
— Robert Murray (@ByRobertMurray) January 11, 2019
Regarding Carpenter, his salary would be about the same as the QO in 2020 anyway ($18.5M). It seems he’d either be good enough and have the option picked up, or bad and have it declined (costing $2M). Barring some unlikely scenario like Elehuris Montero plays his way to St Louis next year and looks like the second coming of Albert Pujols, Marp will either be in a Cards uniform or have the option declined with no QO, just about 100% likelihood.
I am pretty concerned about every single starter…
Mik repeating
CMart was our closer to end the year an had injuries
Wacha injuries
Jack had a poor last month
Waino injuriesand the kids are all kids…
I’d feel a lot better with at least one somewhat consistent performer via trade or FA
This is NOT surprising. In fact, I predicted this.
#Rays have settled with Matt Duffy, Chaz Roe and Mike Zunino. They'll head to arbitration with Tommy Pham.
— Juan Toribio (@juanctoribio) January 11, 2019
Sorry, BHC, but I don’t have enough information to have an opinion. I have not followed the Rays management over time nor their reaction to his recent Twitter slam of the team’s fans. When all is said and done, Pham is a cost controlled player who is very good between the white lines. Maybe TB can better deal with the bad that goes with the good.
A reminder: Talks continued after deadline today and #Cardinals still optimistic about Deals with Ozuna and Leone. Contracts still being filed into the afternoon. #stlcards https://t.co/KXfUNXiRgv
— Derrick Goold (@dgoold) January 11, 2019
Brian Walton
I do not think Carpenter could be qualifying offer eligible for 2020. He has a contract for that season unless he is bought out. If he is bought out, the Cards give up their rights. I don’t think they can buy him out and turn around and slap a QO on him. At least that is my quick interpretation.
I want to say we discussed that regarding Holliday back a few years ago. In that, if he had a good season, the Cardinals could decline his club option at $17.0M (because we had replacement OFers at the ready) and pay the buyout of $1.0M. Then turn around and QO him at $17.4M, assuming he would decline that, giving us a draft pick. He ended up not putting together a healthy 2016 so we just outright declined altogether.
The #STLCards announced today that they have reached agreement on one-year contracts for the 2019 season with pitchers Michael Wacha, Dominic Leone and outfielder Marcell Ozuna, thus avoiding salary arbitration. #TimeToFly pic.twitter.com/FKGEsBFs0E
— St. Louis Cardinals (@Cardinals) January 11, 2019
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