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Rats asked about this in a thread. And given that we are about to start selling pieces in 2025, I think we should revisit it.
First off, these trades got way overhyped. I think that’s because it was a totally new thing for us. We were actually taking in a bunch of prospects from other teams. That’s something we had never really done before. Certainly not in that kind of quantity. And because of that, expectations seemed to jump up to a bit of unrealistic levels. Anything new is exciting, right? The reality was ee were trading 2 months each of expiring contracts for mostly minor league players that are always risky. There’s almost no way all of these would work out. Some should though and that should be where the expectations should lie. In the end, the Cardinals traded away 6 players at or near the deadline for 10 players in return. Let’s examine each trade and whether or not it looks good in hindsight.
Jordan Montgomery was by far the Cardinals best trade piece. He was having a career year pitching like a good #2 starter. He was also left handed which tends to make him even more in demand. That’s a better trade piece than any Cardinals expiring contracts this season. The team really needed to turn him into at least one solid MLB starter to reap the value. In return, Mo got Tekoah Roby and Thomas Saggese. This one is still TBD but the return so far hasn’t been much. Roby has been hurt more than healthy. He may end up as just a good bullpen piece. Meanwhile, we’ve seen Saggese a bit. He looks like an ok infield utility guy, but maybe could be an MLB regular at 2B if he gets the runway. There’s been almost no major league return on this trade yet in terms of WAR value. Overall, I’d consider this on a bit of a missed opportunity but it’s still possible it works out.
The Cardinals next best traded asset was probably Flaherty. He was also a starter but he was having a very up and down year. He might be more equivalent to Helsley in the value department. The Cardinals got 3 players for him: Drew Rom, Cesar Prieto, and Zack Showalter. Rom went to the MLB rotation out of necessity and was really bad. Since then, he’s mostly been hurt for 2 seasons. Prieto went to AAA and continues to hit for around an .800 OPS but is mostly a poor fielder due to limited range. Showalter has a very promising fastball but he’s also dealt with some injuries and the results he’s had haven’t been very good. He’s currently been demoted to the bottom likely to work on his mechanics.
The 3rd most valuable player traded was Jordan Hicks. He’s probably close to Flaherty in value. I think Maton is a pretty similar comp for this year, especially given Maton’s results on the field and tiny salary. Jordan’s trade return brought us Sem Robberse and Adam Kloffenstein. Robberse was immediately promoted to AAA and has has mediocre results, but is still young. He also suffered an injury this season that has sidelined him most of the year. Kloffenstein was brought up as a reliever last season and pitched 1 effective inning before being sent back down and released at year end. This trade looks like a failure, but I guess it’s still possible Robberse comes through in the future.
The next best traded asset is a huge step down from the other 3. This one is Chris Stratton. Stratton was a veteran reliever who was getting average to a little better than average results. Mo essentially swapped him for John King. Since this trade also involved Montgomery, Roby, and Saggese, it’s hard to say exactly who was for who, but I see it as Stratton was basically given away for King. We all know King by now. He got pretty good results at the end of ‘23 and so-so results in ‘24 and ‘25. He’s been a cheap, steady lefty out in the pen who eats innings and occasionally gets in for key matchups. I think this trade was valuable for the Cardinals, but it’s hardly exciting or team-altering.
People need to realize that these prospects usually do not end up being any good.
If teams trade for prospects they are usually just giving away players.
Not always, but most of the time.
2025 will be the same for St. Louis. If they trade somebody they will gush over the prospects they got in return. And ultimately those prospects will never amount to a hill of beans.
The next player traded away was DeJong. DeJong was worth next to nothing. Almost Fedde level because he was having a rough season. Still, the Cardinals found a taker because Vlad Guerrero got suddenly hurt and DeJong was a cheap stopgap option who could play competent SS defense. Of all of these trades, this has been the only clear winner. DeJong went on to be terrible for Toronto on the offensive side and the Cardinals got back a solid bullpen piece in Matt Svanson. Svanson may have high leverage upside and even if not, he’s got a floor of a solid shuttle guy. We essentially gave up nothing and got back a useful role player.
The lowest value player traded for the Cardinals left several weeks before the deadline. This was Genesis Cabrera. Cabrera had become super erratic and there were also reports of clubhouse issues. The Cardinals decided to DFA him. Then, they found a trading partner and got Sammy Hernandez in return. Hernandez hit well at Low A – really well actually. But the Cardinals suddenly had a plethora of catchers and they also drafted Kross and Campos the following July essentially burying Hernandez. Hernandez hasn’t been as good this season and will likely never make it to the majors. This one was just a lottery ticket though.
Overall, only one of those 6 traded players has really had any impact 2 seasons later. There is still some potential for more, but it may not materialize. I was hoping for a little more. I’m not sure I bought into the complete hype at the time that we were getting organization-changing players, but I did think we were getting at least a couple average major leaguers and some other plug and play parts. I still like Saggese but with Wetherholt, Saggese might not have a role on this team. Roby is the only other one to have much future hope for, but the injuries are beginning to pile up. Svanson may end up being the only regular for our future team – plus whatever small value we’ve gotten from John King. It’s a lackluster grade right now.
Depends on who you target Rats, and who you are willing to deal away. This is Mo’s recent work, with rentals. You can miss on a Fedde type acquisitions too, not just prospects. Autonomy needs to be good, with few scapegoats left available.
There were nine players acquired in July 2023.
Rom
Prieto
Showalter
Robberse
Kloffenstein
Roby
Saggese
S Hernandez
SvansonI’m glad you did this thread jnevel. Back when our team was 9 games over.500 on June 29 some posters were demanding we be sellers regardless of how the team was doing I brought up the 2023 deadline as a reminder that the return we receive was probably not going to be organization altering so the expectations should be tempered.
Yes I suppose getting some depth pieces are better than nothing but unless the Cardinals go bold by trading Donovan, Herrera, or Burly (which I would be very hesitant to do) then depth pieces are what we will get.
I think the only deadline moves would be aimed at shaving payroll by moving contracts. This winter Bloom can sort out the gaggle of semi useful right side infielders and start trying to plug holes everywhere else.
I wanted Flaherty and Reyes non-tendered before 23′ and Wainwright to walk away. Hicks was a good slider reliever, who failed at the rotation in 22′.
This is where the rotation crashed. The blinders were over-invested in-house for legacy and continuing scholarships. I thought “acquire significant pitching” was obvious, and became the broken record.
I can’t say on the Monty / Stratton trade yet. We do know they accumulated a combined 2.2 bwar, the remainder of the season.
I think getting Saggese and Roby for Montgomery was still a good gamble for the Cardinals. I like that trade even if it hasn’t worked out on paper. Roby has huge upside if we can get some sustained health out of him. I also like Saggese better than most. And getting anything for DeJong or Cabrerra was good. The fact that they got Svanson was a bit of a fleece for us, but still, he’s just a reliever so limited impact. And Stratton for King was fine.
The other 2 trades are fraught with issues. I admit I liked the Hicks for Robberse/Kloffenstein trade at the time. I think it was the first deadline deal announced for us and I got excited about getting 2 starting prospects for one reliever rental. But splitting the value of Hicks into 2 lesser prospects with the hopes one of them could make it looks bad in hindsight. Kloffenstein got booted for some reason so that makes this one even worse. For the Flaherty trade, I wasn’t a fan at the time. They split Flaherty’s value into 3 mediocre and longshot prospects rather than combine them all into someone with better potential. That one still bothers me a bit. However, it’s impossible to know what other options were out there for Mo. Could we have gotten someone like Connor Norby or Jordan Westburg though from Baltimore if we had just taken one player instead of 3? Those guys aren’t stars but they have a brighter future it would seem than the trio we took.
I have believed for some time that we have a scouting problem or the powers that be are not lisening. Our major leage trades have generally been bad except for guys like Goldschidt and Aranado who I could have told them to pick up.
Basically the only thing that has been productive has been the draft. Our record with free agents has been mediocre or worse, The international approach of mostly quantity over quality has produced limited results. The teams that do well with international get results from guys who make it as well as players that they get in tradesfor the international prospects they trade away. They do much better than we do on that front.
We will know soon who is in charge of deadline deals. Minimal activity with tepid prospect for results means that Mo was in charge. Agressive activity with some potentially good return in prospects and a strong focus on the future probably means that Bloom called the shots. Possibly DeWitt does not want to have Mo lose face by taking the responsibility away from him. WE WILL SOON SEE.
I don’t think there is any doubt who is in charge at the deadline. He was the guy was answering all the deadline questions off camera with Jim Hayes today.
Hard to get a good return with what we’re selling unless we are selling more than what it appears we are. I just don’t see some blockbuster return no matter what we are selling that will make a difference in the next 1-2 years. No moto, no ace in the cards for the rotation. No soup for us!
We won the division in 2022 and then crashed in 2023. While I was screaming “acquire significant pitching” during the 2022-23′ offseason, management resigned Wainwright, retained Flaherty / Reyes, and acquired Willson Contreras. Offense sells tickets still ruled and was rewarded with a self-inflicted rotation meltdown in 2023. So much so, management acquired Gray, Gibson and Lynn the following offseason, when everyone then realized their error.
We are there again. Gray, Libby and pray for rain.I keep saying Reyes, when I mean Hudson.
Can’t see, can’t hear, can’t remember! Lets keep those birthdays coming! 🙃The Gray, Gibson, Lynn offseason was a year late and if Bill had doubled down before 2024, we could have had Gray, Gray Jr. and Libby this season, before he pulled the plug on funds. But, now we’re competing for best of the rest, and that history of failure gets swept under the rug.
Gray has a 30mil club option for 2027. Currently I view him as a FA-to-be after 2026. Keeping all our bats won’t change a 6 outs, for 6 runs, rotation.
For what it’s worth I do like Saggese, Roby, and Svanson. They all have some potential. Saggese needs some plate discipline, Roby needs to stay healthy, and Svanson could end up being another Leahy or maybe better. But none of the 3 are game changers. They are just nice supplemental pieces which is what I expect us to get this year. The rest of the 2023 haul doesn’t figure to contribute much of anything. Rom and Prieto have a little potential but again just supplemental.
You like Roby now he’s undergone Tommy John and pretty much is a no go for 26?
2023 deadline sell off has been sort of a failure. I don’t blame bowtie necessarily. I think he got what he could get based on most of those guys having expiring contracts.
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