- This topic has 43 replies, 17 voices, and was last updated 1 year, 9 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
This from today’s John Denton internet article:
“Highly paid veterans such as Nolan Arenado, Sonny Gray, Willson Contreras and Ryan Helsley could be moved.”
Where did everyone — apparently including a professional baseball writer — get the insane idea that Ryan Helsley is going to be “highly paid” next year?
Helsey made $3.8 million this year. He will make maybe $6-6.5 million in 2025.
That. Is. Cheap. Especially for one of baseball’s best closers. This is the Cardinals, not the Pirates for God’s sake.
Helsley is NOT one of the guys you trade to save money. He’s one of the inexpensive-but-excellent type of major leaguers you cling to for dear life, if you have any hopes at all of making the 2025 postseason.
On top of which, even IF you were going to trade Helsley, it makes far more sense to wait until the 2025 trade deadline, when pitchers are in much higher demand.
Trading Helsley isn’t so much about money at all…it’s about picking up trade chips. Arguably they should have traded him this year, and with next year going nowhere they wouldn’t gain anything by waiting. With pitchers, there’s always a chance they blow their arm out and are worth nothing.
Helsley, then Nootbaar, Arenado, and maybe Contreras are the guys I’d be looking to move.
I think Nootbaar will bring back a solid return and while he’s a good player, he’s often hurt and he’s trending downward within our organization. We know where these types end up, time and time again. Grab a couple of good arms from some team’s organization (he’d be a hit on the west coast) and get similar production from Koperniak next year.
He was hurt this year because he fractured his ribs by landing on a ball he dove for…
But if you are trading Helsley and Nootbaar, why not trade Donovan and Burleson?
I would think they could get a pretty good return for Helsley b/c of his low cost contract and could get a pretty good return for the others….but who is doing the trading, no way I let Mozeliak make those trades in his lame duck year.
Of course if you make those deals you are probably looking at a 70 win team at best again next year
Wow, incredible game today between the Braves and Mets. One of the better games I have seen.
But on Helsley, yes, moving him (if it happens) is not so much about saving money, but more about his value being at a high level. He might be at peak value right now in fact given the risk that comes with pitchers. With us looking to be more in a youth movement and lower payroll, his value as an elite closer is probably not as high with us as with a club expected to contend. Thus we might be able to leverage him for some good players who are a couple years away.
But you never know. Maybe our club surprises people next year.
But if you are trading Helsley and Nootbaar, why not trade Donovan and Burleson?
Donovan fills a role that I don’t think we have on next year’s team, at least if Arenado is gone. If you think Saggese is adequate at 2B/3B/1B then I suppose you could trade Donovan. If you want to move Donovan over Nootbaar I wouldn’t be offended.
I don’t even consider Burleson as I don’t think he would bring anything in a trade. He’s a slightly above average lefty bat who’s a 1B/DH. Seems like the kind of player we would trade to Pittsburgh or Oakland for a reliever at the deadline.
I don’t think the Cardinals are even thinking about a winning club in 2025 and I would encourage fans to alter your mindsets as well to reduce the chances of high blood pressure next year. The team isn’t going to publicly say they aren’t trying to win but actions speak louder than words. Names like Gray, Arenado, Contreras, Gray, and Helsley are being bandied about as trade candidates because they are primarily older, expensive players who would have some interest to contending teams and thus might help the Cardinals restock the farm system. This is a rebuild folks even if the dreaded R word is not uttered out loud by the team. We are going to be younger and cheaper. I’m actually all for it as long as they will get aggressive when the rebuild is over and we are ready to win again.
You trade Helsley, you’re tanking. And I’m 100% against tanking. Or rebuilding, or whatever euphemism is employed.
There are enough redundancies to trade from already, without dealing away perhaps the club’s best pitcher, including starters. The man will make a pittance in 2025, after making a sub-pittance in 2024. So you keep him, then IF the club is out of the playoff race in late July, you can trade him and probably get a mint.
Dump Arenado, Contreras, and Gray for whatever you can get, eating however much salary is necessary to procure something of some value. And obviously do NOT bring back Goldy or Lynn or Gibson.
Opening Day rotation becomes Pallante, McGreevy, Matz, Fedde, and Mikolas. Herrera starts 6 days a week (4 at catcher against weaker base stealing teams), Pages backs him up, Burly & Walker share 1B and the other DH at-bats, Donovan, Victor Scott, and Nootbaar are your outfield, and Winn + either Gorman or Saggese is the middle infield. Third base can be either Saggese or Gorman or someone acquired in the myriad trades.
So trading Arenado, Contreras, and Gray is not tanking but add Hesley to the list and it becomes tanking?
My take would be does a rebuilding team even need a lockdown closer or would he be of more value traded for player(s) that can help us win two or three years from now?
Damn y’all cash it in easy. You trying to rewrite the Cardinal Way?
Lol, looks like quitting to me.
I hate a quitter, don’t you?We need leadership with good guts, not a bow tie. We need 90 wins, that’s the Cardinal Way.
You trade Helsley, you’re tanking. And I’m 100% against tanking. Or rebuilding, or whatever euphemism is employed.
I am against tanking as well, but Bob…you’re going to have to admit that this is what’s going to happen. The 2025 St Louis Cardinals are not likely to be a winning ball club under any circumstances that are realistic. Helsley won’t be playing for us in 2026 and then longer we keep him in 2025, the more likely his value goes down. Relievers are one of the most volatile parts of any roster and if we can get the next Helsley (or the next #3 for our rotation) then why not?
Bob, IMO that is a 70 win team, at best. That is tanking. You are getting rid of your best, proven starting pitcher and keeping the worst. I am not totally against trading Contreras and Arenado if you can get rid of almost all of their salaries.
I’d say 70 W’s is a bit beneath tanking. In fact it’s worse than the last place team of ’23 that won 71.
Semantics, but I would call “tanking” where you gut your roster and plan on losing with the goal being to get high draft picks for a few years.
“Rebuilding”, which is more what we are doing, is going with your younger players and not necessarily looking to lose a lot, but being realistic that you could lose more than you win.
For us to “tank”, we would make everyone on the roster available in trade. We are not doing that. We are looking at possibly dealing the older players, but keeping the core pieces – Donovan, Herrera, Walker, Gorman, Pages, McGreevy, Pallante, Nootbaar. At least I think that is management’s thought.
To me, tanking is when you get rid of all high-cost and valuable players to lower salary and acquire prospects.
The Cardinals are reportedly shopping Gray, Contreras, Arenado & Helsley.
That is tanking if they do it.
“So trading Arenado, Contreras, and Gray is not tanking but add Hesley to the list and it becomes tanking?”
Yes, exactly.
Because Arenado’s 2.5 WAR in 2024 is not hard to duplicate, or very nearly duplicate, via internal options. Same with the 2024 versions of Contreras and Sonny Gray. But Helsley on the other hand was terrific in 2024 and moreover has been the National League’s best relief pitcher over the past three years — and it’s not real close. From 2022-24, per Fangraphs WAR:1. Helsley 5.8 WAR
2. Tanner Scott 5.0
3. Devin Williams 4.9
4. Evan Phillips 4.3
5. Edwin Diaz 4.0Nobody can come close to replacing Helsley.
“The 2025 St Louis Cardinals are not likely to be a winning ball club under any circumstances that are realistic. Helsley won’t be playing for us in 2026 and then longer we keep him in 2025, the more likely his value goes down.”
I’m afraid I disagree on both counts. Second point first: I think most high-quality pitchers can get more in trade at the deadline than they can over the winter. Or at least as much. (A bidding war is a beautiful thing.)
And as to the other point, I believe that Vegas knows better than anybody else how much talent MLB teams really have. They have to know. It’s their job. And in both 2023 and 2024 the Cardinals were favored or co-favored to win the N.L. Central. So there is plenty of talent on the MLB roster — and more in the upper minors, albeit mainly Double-A.
I will concede however that the team can’t win with Marmol managing unless they revamp the coaching staff and/or get incredibly lucky, as in 2022, when lots of stuff happened that very likely will never happen again. For any team.
I think you are correct Mike. I don’t see how losing Goldy, Arenado, and Contreras is all of a sudden going to make us the 2024 White Sox. Goldy and Arenado are a shell of themselves and Contreras was hurt a lot of the time.
I admit that skimping on the pitching by moving Gray and Helsley would hurt but if you are going to rebuild then you might as well determine who is going to be here post-rebuild and who isn’t. And as stl25 mentioned closers and bullpen guys are notoriously fickle. This time last year the best closer in the game was considered to be Bednar of the Pirates. 12 months later he looks like a non-tender candidate.
I’m entirely convinced that you could rebuild this team with Ruth and Gehrig and still not win anything worthwhile with the current manager. The Cardinals are going nowhere as long as he remains situated on the top step. The guy makes Vern Rapp look good.
I read the same thing and thought it odd, too. If he had said Helsley would bring a good return in trade, I would get that. But his 2025 salary should not be a concern.
I’m afraid I disagree on both counts. Second point first: I think most high-quality pitchers can get more in trade at the deadline than they can over the winter. Or at least as much. (A bidding war is a beautiful thing.)
And as to the other point, I believe that Vegas knows better than anybody else how much talent MLB teams really have. They have to know. It’s their job. And in both 2023 and 2024 the Cardinals were favored or co-favored to win the N.L. Central. So there is plenty of talent on the MLB roster — and more in the upper minors, albeit mainly Double-A.
What if Helsley gets injured? Then he’s worth nothing in a trade. If the case is to be made that Helsley makes the team better, I totally agree. But a year (or half a year) of Helsley will just make the 65 win team a 68 win team if they are really gutting things.
As for the overall roster…Vegas does what they do but without Gray, Contreras and Arenado I’d be betting against the win total being much above 70.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.