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I read all the time questions around why the Cardinals don’t just sign Montgomery or Snell or pretty much any of the other free agent pitchers that were available coming into this offseason. Are they cheap? Are they wise? To answer that, we need to look at the value that free agent pitchers return back to their teams.
To do that, first we need to level set on what a Win might be worth. Well, that’s really subjective. If you’re the A’s, wins come a lot cheaper because you’re getting them with a lot fewer dollars spent. But you just aren’t getting as many of them as say, the Dodgers. The more minimum contract players you have, the likelier that you’re getting more wins per your dollar spent. Because in baseball, cheaper players are just a more efficient use of your dollars. That doesn’t make them better obviously. Just more efficient. Free agents cost a lot more money typically. The cost of a free agent “Win” is more like $7 million whereas a non-free agent win is more likely around $1 million or less – probably less.
For this activity, I decided to look at all the starting pitchers signed since the offseason going into the 2020 season. I also decided to only look at pitchers who got at least a $25 million contract because anything less than that isn’t exactly a starting pitcher that fans are clamoring to sign. I measured the AAV (annual value of the contract) against how much WAR has been earned for each of those seasons. I arbitrarily decided that paying less than $6 million for a win was good value, between $6 million and $10 million was fair value, and paying over $10 million per win was not a very good use of team resources.
The Good:
NAME/Cost per WAR so far/Total Value of Contract in millions
Kyle Gibson $5,382,692.31 / $28.00
Zack Wheeler $4,916,666.67 / $118.00
Kodai Senga $4,411,764.71 / $75.00
Taijuan Walker 2021 $4,390,243.90 / $24.50
Justin Verlander 2022 $4,166,666.67 / $50.00
Kevin Gausman $4,000,000.00 / $110.00
Alex Cobb $3,636,363.64 / $28.00
Zach Efflin $2,777,083.33 / $40.00
Michael Wacha $2,500,000.00 / $26.00Wacha was the best contract value per $ of WAR spent for any of these pitchers. He was fairly cheap in his overall cost so that helps. Gausman is probably the best overall signing because he’s been great thus far. 11 FWAR in 2 seasons. That’s great! All of these above were good deals for teams though. Still, that’s just 9 (out of 38) starting pitching contracts for over $25 million that have worked out very well since 2020. Let’s call it 25% that work out great for the team. That’s about what I had anticipated going in – that 25% work great, 50% end up ok, and 25% end up bad – a few really, really bad. Let’s see if that hypothesis holds up.
The Fair Value Contracts:
NAME/Cost per WAR so far/Total Value of Contract in millions
Andrew Heaney $9,615,384.62 / $25.00
Gerrit Cole $9,536,423.84 / $324.00
Jose Quintana $8,666,666.67 / $26.00
Steven Matz $8,148,148.15 / $44.00
Chris Bassitt $8,076,923.08 / $63.00
Jon Gray $7,567,567.57 / $56.00
Taijuan Walker 2023 $7,200,000.00 / $72.00
Nathan Eovaldi $6,800,000.00 / $34.00
Nick Martinez 2023 $6,192,857.14 / $26.00Here we find our very own Steven Matz who has cost the Cards a little over $8 million per FWAR thus far. Two spots above him, you’ll see Gerrit Cole. I’m not trying to say that Gerrit Cole is essentially equal to Steven Matz! However, the cost per win is very similar. Sometimes you just need to invest in that really good player though and Gerrit Cole has been the really good player. I don’t think the Yankees are in any way disappointed in his outcome. Costly, but very good results. The count here is another 9 out of the total of 38 pitchers (about 25%). That misses my mark of 50% by a lot. Maybe I should have arbitrarily allowed a cost of up to $12 million per win as being a fair value? It wouldn’t have made much difference though.
That leaves us at 25% of these deals work out great for teams. 25% work out solidly as fair value for the cost. That means that about 50% end up being bad contracts then, right?
The Bad Contracts:
NAME/Cost per WAR so far/Total Value of Contract in millions
Stephen Strasburg Infinite / $245.00
Carlos Rodon Infinite / $162.00
Ross Stripling Infinite / $25.00
Madison Bumgarner $85,000,000.00 / $85.00
Trevor Bauer $35,783,333.33 / $64.41
Dallas Keuchel $32,173,913.04 / $55.50
Robbie Ray $27,058,823.53 / $115.00
Drew Pomeranz $26,153,846.15 / $34.00
Jacob DeGrom $24,666,666.67 / $185.00
Anthony DeScalifani $24,000,000.00 / $36.00
Hyun Jin Ryu $16,326,530.61 / $80.00
Nick Martinez 2022 $15,950,000.00 / $25.50
Alex Wood $13,157,894.74 / $25.00
Max Scherzer $13,121,212.12 / $130.00
Jake Odorizzi $12,821,739.13 / $29.50
Yusei Kikuchi $12,631,578.95 / $36.00
Justin Verlander 2023 $12,290,909.09 / $121.67
Tyler Anderson $11,818,181.82 / $39.00
Jameson Taillon $10,625,000.00 / $68.00
Marcus Stroman $10,072,340.43 / $50.00A few of these are still ok. Taillon and Stroman probably fit that mold. But the rest of these are pretty bad. And about 5 of these are giant boat anchors on a team that limit payroll for quite some time and hold the entire team back.
Thoughts? I apologize for the formatting. They look good when they are posted but not so good after I hit submit.
Snell’s asking price is reportedly 9yrs/$270M … He’s 31 years old.
Montgomery’s asking price is reportedly 7yrs/$172M … He’s 31 years old
The Phillies just extended Zack Wheeler for 3 yrs/$126M beginning in his age 35 season. That’s $42M a year.
Wheeler commented that he enjoys playing in Phillie which, I guess, explains why he allowed the Phillies to extend him.I’ve said it before and I’ll say it again….. The inmates are running the asylum.*
*BTW, that is also the title of a book by a guy named Alan Cooper
If Monty gets his $25M or so per year, using jnevel’s analysis he would need to average 4-5 WAR per year to be a real efficient investment.
Pitchers are a risky lot though – looks at those “infinite” guys.
I would be okay signing Monty to a $25M/year deal, but 7 years is too much. If he would do 4 I am ready to make the commitment, but BDW might not agree.
When I think of that amount of money over the course of seven years for a 31 year old lefty a particular song starts playing inside of my coconut that includes the lyrics, “The lunatic is on the grass”…
Well you can always not pay good money for any pitching and just become another below average team if you aren’t going to create some great in house pitching
One quick note on my data above – I realized after I published it that since I included the 8 contracts signed going into the 2020 season, I should have prorated the 2020 year to 60 games worth of cost for the teams that year since that’s what the teams paid those pitchers. That wouldn’t be enough to change any of these pitchers into another level (from Fair to Good for example), but it will make 7 of those 8 look slightly better (Strasburg will still stay at infinite $/FWAR!). That affects the Cole, Wheeler, Bumgarner, Ryu, Keuchel, Pomeranz, and Gibson deals to all cost just a little bit less per FWAR.
Gausman and Wheeler are the 2 golden gooses here. Those 2 deals have been amazing for their respective teams. The cost per WAR is still potentially a lot more than an in-house candidate might cost, but getting that kind of value consolidated in one player is ideal and well worth the price. Otherwise, there are several good deals on here in the $25-$40 million range. Some of those deals in that range still went south, but at least they don’t completely set a team back. For the big contracts (arbitrarily those $75 million and up just so I’m being fair to grab the Senga contract), we see 12 of those on the
list. And of those 12, 8 of them are in the “Bad” category with some of those almost needing another level of Bad. Rodon and DeGrom still could right the ship to some degree on their contracts, but I doubt those will ever get below $10 million spent per FWAR.With higher end free agents, you’re paying them for past performance. That’s just the way the baseball market works. Past performance is a somewhat decent predictor of future performance. That is, assuming relative health. But with pitchers and their frequent injuries, the bet becomes really risky. We took that risk on with Sonny Gray. We decided to be risk averse with Lynn and Gibson and just do a 1-year vet plug and play for 2 spots in the rotation. How will that all work out? Well, it all depends on how well we can develop those 10+ guys who are 0-2 years out from being major league starters. If we can get at least 3 of them to be #3 starters (or better) and a few other 4/5 types, then the Cardinals brass will deserve credit for charting the right long-term path. If we can’t at least get that, then buying a year of Lynn/Gibson was probably just throwing money down the drain – especially when it could have been invested elsewhere.
Puhols fleeced the Angels, plain and simple. That’s a great example of a player being paid for past performance.
Bellinger and Chapman both had big asking prices too. How did that work out for them and Boras? They both had to settle for three year deals. Snell and Monty may have to accept reality also.
It seems like the thinking on Montgomery was he would go back to the Rangers but there Regional TV deal became shaky and they have a lot of money tied up in Scherzer and Degrom this year plus their payroll is around $220 Million so that option seems to have closed.
Then the next team was supposed to be the Red Sox because his wife is doing a medical residence at a hospital in Boston, so the thought was they would get a deal done but nothing has shaken out. That might change with Giolito going down.
I guess there is always the Yankees, but they will have to pay Sosa next year.
It will be interesting if him or Snell are willing to do short term deals with opt outs.
I would take Monty on a 3 year, $25M/ year deal. But I do not know the club’s budget and overall financial picture. Maybe that is too risky given other commitments.
I would definitely do Monty for 3/75 but that would put the Cardinals over the CBT line which I highly doubt they would do. In order to pull it off they would have to move salary like Matz but I would be surprised if many teams are willing to take his salary on.
My prediction for Monty is that he goes to the Phillies. They don’t seem concerned about spending money and Nola, Wheeler, and Monty would be pretty good in a playoff series.
Buster Olney just stated on The Michael Kay Show that Jordan Montgomery's preference is to be "in a smaller market like Texas, like St. Louis," but isn't sure if that opportunity exists.
— Adam Weinrib (@AdamWeinrib) March 6, 2024
While I guessed that was the case with him, I’m surprised he would come out and say that directly. Now if he signs with a big market, the fans will have a tougher time embracing him because “he doesn’t want to be there.” Of course, maybe this is just a way to push the small market teams to bid a little higher since now they know they will have a better chance at getting him over the big market teams that could have always outbid them. I’m not sure. It doesn’t seem like a good negotiating tactic overall, but if his heart is set on playing in a smaller market, maybe this helps that work out for him.
Either Boras agreed with this plan for Monty to speak up, or more likely, he is probably very upset right now!
Then again, stepping back, Monty’s large market aversion almost certainly isn’t new and is probably one reason why he is still unsigned.
I understand that more money is always better if you can get it BUT – for an established major league pro athlete – the dollar figures absolutely dwarf what almost anyone else can make; particularly 99.99% of the unwashed masses that comprise their fanbase.
So, if a guy ‘only’ makes $20M instead of say $25M per year – is his lifestyle and ability to ‘feed his family’ really impacted?
I submit that it is not.
At this point in Montgomery’s career I think he should go play for the team he wants to play for and tell his agent to get in line or hit the bricks.
I lived in DFW for over a decade. Never viewed the Rangers as small market, especially with their large market player budget (8th highest).
If Monty would accept a 3yr contract, I bet he’d already be signed. 6/150mil from a small market during ST? Good luck.
Monty’s wife is in medical school and the abrupt timing of his last couple of moves have reportedly been disruptive for their family. Not defending or criticizing anyone. Just a reminder that players have real lives too and there are other factors than just money involved sometimes – often ones we never see.
It’s hard to imagine that Snell and Montgomery won’t have some ill effects from getting such a late start on the season. I’d be happy to bring Monty back but the Cards rarely (never) do the kind of deal it would take to get him now. Minnesota, sure…but not St Louis.
Am I missing something here? The Cards went into the horrendous ’23 season with a shaky rotation. Almost everyone here knew it. There was no #1 and big hopes for Flaherty-Wainwright-Woodford-Matz-Liberatore. really didn’t work out too well, did they. At that point even the FO knew we needed some experienced inning eaters…. they brought in Lynn and Gibson. They brought in Gray a poorman’s #1. Gray may be down until mid-April?? or he might just go on the 60-day. Its possible…. we don’t get much news regarding that kind of injury.
The remaining rotation looks like two elder inning eaters, one Mikolas, a younger ‘vet”, one of two young
and inexperienced pitchers that have failed to open any eyes wide. The dismal ’23 season has been blamed on the rotation and our present, “on paper” rotation doesn’t seem to be one that will be enough to win a division. Au contrare actually. And doesn’t appear that anything will be done to rectify this. So what are we to expect? A miracle?So what am I missing??
He’s due for a NTC now. He is past the deadline chip phase that disrupted the family.
Sure its about location. Every SP we just signed is a midwesterner, just like Holiday was. Gibson was a local before this winter, so sure it fit him.
It is about the money with Monty. They are going after long term total dollar, and haven’t budged yet. Oh, and he wants to cherry pick the location / market size too. Good luck.
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