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It would be great if we knew how much drop off Walker experienced from AA to AAA, but we don’t.
Mike, my hunch is Carlson will not be here in 2 or 3 years.
The only way to find out is to place the young man into a Big League batter’s box. I’m not one of those who adheres to the old “we don’t want to rush him along” concept. My view has always been that the only way to get practical results in the Big Leagues, is to get practical experience in the Big Leagues. If he can play, get him in there.
1TD I think the defensive position change is the reason Walker was held in AA all year. I say that because no other reason is apparent. I think we should expect him to spend a significant part of the year acclimating to AAA competition and speed of the game. The reason I say that is there is not a need on the MLB roster right now. That’s a pretty nice position for the team to be in. Assuming he continues to rake, and make adequate progress with his new position, we will see the necessary MLB roster sorting happen at some point this year I would think.
Walker played in the Arizona Fall league, which isn’t quite the finishing school it once was, but is still a tougher environment than AA. I’m still of the opinion that the net gain for the potential ROY outweighs the extra year of service you get with holding guys like Walker down for a couple months.
If Walker performs in ST, I hope we see him in St Louis.
My perception is the AFL is more of a finishing school than in the past. With more higher level players. I admit I could be wrong about that.
Having a bigger impact than Carlson is a rather low bar so I will take the over.
The organization was sold enough on Carlson to trade Bader and install him as the everyday CF of the future. Then he tanked and was eventually all but benched, with a pesky and conveniently timed and injury. Now there is some speculation floating around that the OF of the future my not feature Carlson after all, but rather Nootbaar flanked by Walker and probably Burleson. All we know for sure is the worm turneth.
This is another sub-plot to observe during ST and the early going.
If Walker isn’t better than Carlson he will be a huge disappointment! Carlson has been a flop up to now! Outfield is a great concern to me! We were told last year we had the best young outfield in baseball with O’Neill and Bader and Carlson! Not so much! Seems many have given up on all 3 and now we have a new young outfield of Walker and Nootbar and Burleson! Sounds suspect to me! Just the defensive issues would be big with those 3 in the OF! Plus I’m not sure Burleson can hit at major league level! He sure couldn’t last year! What concerns me is we don’t have a single outfielder on our roster we can count on to play everyday and produce! Most contending teams have at least 1 and maybe 2 guys they can pencil in and know that they are gonna be there and produce! We MUST get better at all 3 of those positions to contend!
Just the defensive issues would be big with those 3 in the OF!
We’ve been loaded with gold gloves and didn’t win diddly. I wouldn’t worry about it.
LOL! Blingboy, that made my day! As always I hope your right! Can’t field and can’t hit could be a problem though! Lol!
Can’t field and can’t hit could be a problem though!
Haha. Not to mention pitching was the biggest weakness. Never worry, though, they’ll out-analytic all the other teams.
When you stop and consider where our budget is being spent, by position, the outfield should be an area of questionable production.
Those are our less established players that the org needs to graduate and play, as a draft and develop club, to support five infielders making 92mil.
It’s likely tempting for the FO to make another Dickerson type outfield signing before opening day. I hope they don’t.
Kiss of death? Steve Phillips says Walker will be the NL Rookie of the Year and become the game’s next superstar. (However, MLB Network’s graphic touts his arm and instincts at 3B. Apparently they haven’t heard…)
.@StevePhillipsGM is confident in his NL Rookie of the Year pick in 2023 😳@Cardinals | @jwalker0522 | #Top100Prospects pic.twitter.com/mV13amFeVO
— MLB Network (@MLBNetwork) January 27, 2023
Carlson’s early impact includes convincing the organization that Bader was expendable in exchange for pitching that helped get us into postseason. Which is the organization’s prime objective.
I sure hope that walker has more impact than Carlson. I was never sold on Carlson being anything more than an average hitter who was pretty good defensively. So far hes been about that though at times he’s been a below average hitter. So if walker can’t be better than that then I will be disappointed. I’ll give him some time, I’m not expecting the second coming of Albert. Like some, in this case I say let’s see what he can do.
I’m not expecting the second coming of Albert.
Yeah, Walker’s ceiling may be as lofty as some think, but it is less certain than they think. Lots of guys look good in the Texas League. There is zero reason to assume that hole in his swing will not eventually be discovered and exploited. How quickly and effectively he can adjust is uncertain. It would have been useful to see what Walker looked like in AAA, but I guess he was working on the position change.
The smart move will be to start him at Memphis until a need for a bat makes itself obvious in STL, or until he demonstrates mastery at the AAA level, whichever comes first.
Carlson shouldn’t have been brought up so early in 2020. He was just 21 then. But without a minor league season, it made some sense. He ended up with just 79 AAA PAs due to that.
He had a great ‘rookie’ year in 2021. I expect a good return after his sophomore slump last year. As slumps go, he still put up a perfectly average 100 OPS+ last season.
Walker, likewise, should not be counted on in 2022 at age 21. If he’s crushing it in AAA, and has more than a paltry 100 PAs, then bring him up in June/July. I think his promotion will also be dictated by that of Donovan/Gorman, Burleson/Yepez, and the 3 current starters in the outfield ~ O’Neill, Nootbaar, and Carlson.
Walker, likewise, should not be counted on in 2022 at age 21. If he’s crushing it in AAA, and has more than a paltry 100 PAs, then bring him up in June/July.
I think June/July is too late to take advantage of the biggest reason to bring him up…the draft pick compensation for rookie of the year. He’s our first legit candidate for it in a while.
I thought Carlson took one for the team last season by playing injured after the NYY series at home. Once Bader was traded he was counted on to hold down CF.
Carlson wound up dropping .020 off his ops by seasons end, which dropped him from Edmans 2022, to his, with the bat.
With Edman and Carlson both playing up the middle defensive positions, both may be light bats with plus D and baserunning long term.
obp/slg/ops
322/410/732
323/407/730There’s very little difference in their career numbers and both are over 1,000 PA’s.
One of Carlson’s problems has been the expectations game. He was the number 1 rated prospect in the system in both 2020 and 2021. He was supposed to have been a much better player in the big leagues than guys like Edman and Nootbaar but it just hasn’t happened yet. It doesn’t mean he has been a bad player but when you are the number 1 prospect people expect more.
People blame the media, but the overhype began at the very top. I took some heat when I suggested Nick Markakis might be a better comp than sure-fire future Hall of Famer Albert Pujols. Mo surely didn’t do the then-21-year-old minor leaguer any favors with this.
"I hate to do this… [but he's] the Albert Pujols or Oscar Taveras type."#STLCards fans aren't the only ones excited about top prospect Dylan Carlson. Cardinals President John Mozeliak had some high praise for the young outfielder who he says we should see in STL in 2020. pic.twitter.com/Zc2ZNifT0g
— Corey Miller (@corey_miller5) December 8, 2019
I agree the Pujols comparison didn’t do Carlson a favor at all. So is Mo doing Walker a similar non-favor if he is brought up with the expectation that he will win RoY and get the team a draft pick?
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