photo: Sonny Gray (Jim Rassol/USA TODAY Sports)
Perhaps surprisingly, the St. Louis Cardinals’ 2024 rotation isn’t yet eating more innings than did the 2023 group, but the results have been much better, so does it matter?
It has been repeated so often that we’ve come to accept it. The St. Louis Cardinals added three “innings eaters” during the off-season to stabilize the rotation and relieve pressure on the bullpen.
There is no doubt that the trio of Sonny Gray, Kyle Gibson and Lance Lynn have driven better results from the starting rotation. Specifically, the starters’ ERA is about 0.80 better year to year to date.
A major contributing factor is a bullpen that is improved from 2023 even more than the rotation.
The following graphic generated an in-depth discussion at The Cardinal Nation’s free forum. As you can see, the innings pitched by the bullpen (and therefore the rotation, as well) are comparable from year to year (though again, the results are markedly better).
Point: It seems the Cardinals have used fewer starters this year than last.
Not so. To date in 2024, St. Louis has called upon eight different starting pitchers, when last season at this time, they had deployed just seven.
However, 2023 was two very different seasons in one, with major roster changes for the final two months. The relative stability of the rotation was the area most affected.
Of course, a key reason new starters were needed was that two pretty good ones, impending free agents Jordan Montgomery and Jack Flaherty, were sent away at the trade deadline.
As the season was lost, Adam Wainwright slogged on in his personal quest for 200 career wins (until September 18) and the replacement starters were not of the same quality as the ones they replaced.
After this date last year, the trio of Dakota Hudson, Drew Rom and Zack Thompson made all 29 of their 2023 starts. Collectively, they logged a 5.69 ERA while averaging just under five innings per start.
Point: The 2024 starters are eating more innings than the 2023 starters TO DATE.
The data indicates this is not true. But again, the results are considerably better (for both the starters and relievers), which is what matters most.
Further, the stability outlook for the rotation is much better for the remainder of the season. If the current starters continue on their course for the remainder of the year, it very well could be that they will eat more innings than the 2023 starters did.
Of course, this may also depend on the bullpen maintaining its effectiveness. If Andre Pallante continues to pitch well in the rotation this month, I wouldn’t be surprised to see the Cardinals go conservative and stand pat with the rotation, while adding another veteran reliever at the trade deadline.
That might be good enough to help them secure one of the three Wild Cards, but it wouldn’t increase the low confidence that this Cardinals team has enough starting firepower to complete deep into the playoffs.
Returning to the subject of this article, when considering innings eating, for me it gets down to the comparison point, whether the end of last season or the first half of 2023. Gray, Gibson and Lynn are a major step up from Hudson, Rom and Thompson, but less so from the prior group, led by Montgomery and Flaherty.
But as long as the results are there and the Cardinals keep winning, any concern about innings eating is just a secondary discussion – for now.
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