All posts by Brian Walton

Brian Walton runs The Cardinal Nation, covering the St. Louis Cardinals and minor league system.

Checking Cardinals early draft pick return


One of the many possible explanations suggested for the downturn in fortunes across the St. Louis Cardinals minor league system in 2009 was a dearth of extra draft selections in the early rounds of the most recent drafts.

With fewer elite players, the logic goes, there is no surprise the system did not perform as well as expected.

I decided to probe this. While there is no way to directly tie results on the field to players drafted, we can compare the Cardinals recent compensation picks to their overall early-round selections.

First, a bit of background. These extra or compensatory selections are awarded to a club in return for having lost a player due to free agency. They can either be extra selections, tacked onto the end of a round, called a supplemental round, or they can be picks taken away from another organization.

Because comp picks are in the first two rounds of the draft, that will be the comparison population. I have gone back over the last six drafts, to 2005. The club received no extra picks between 2001 and 2004, anyway.

The table that follows shows the Cardinals’ 20 picks over the initial two rounds during this time period, in what turns out to have been a very symmetrical ten and ten, respectively. On the left are the regular selections and on the right are the compensatory picks.

In the “Comp” column, when the pick was an extra one, the departing player’s name is noted in parentheses. When the pick was taken from another club, that team’s name is listed.

Year Rd Pick Score Departed Rd Comp Pick Score Departed
2009 1 Shelby Miller flat
2 Robert Stock flat
2008 1 Brett Wallace boom trade 1s (Percival) Lance Lynn boom
2 Shane Peterson flat trade
2007 1 Pete Kozma flat 1s (Suppan) Clayton Mortensen boom trade
2 Jess Todd boom trade 2 Milwaukee David Kopp bust
2006 1 Adam Ottavino flat 1s (Morris) Chris Perez boom trade
2 Jon Jay flat 2 Giants Brad Furnish bust
2s (Nunez) Mark Hamilton flat
2005 1 Tyler Greene flat 1 Red Sox Colby Rasmus boom
2 Nick Webber bust release 1s (Renteria) Mark McCormick bust
1s (Matheny) Tyler Herron bust release
2 Giants Josh Wilson bust retire

The first thing to note is how the number of comp picks dropped each year from 2005 through 2009 in a linear manner, from four to three to two to one to none this past summer.

The number of comp picks each year is in direct result to the rate at which the Cardinals either offer or do not offer arbitration to departing free agents. This is a subject to which I will return in a future post.

Another point that stands out is that eight of the Cardinals 20 top picks from the last five years are no longer in the organization. Five are gone due to trades, two of whom were originally comp picks, while the other three departees represent picks that did not pan out.

You have noted I devised a very simple and subjective measurement system to score each pick. As such, my scores are both debatable and changeable over time. They are:

Boom – player has either reached the majors or is ahead of pace to do so

Flat – player has neither excelled nor failed – jury is still out

Bust – player has not achieved his potential

Here is a scorecard of the picks by category. Note that there have been both more “booms” and “busts” from the extra picks, while the regular selections are mostly still in limbo.

Reg picks Extra picks Total Departed Remaining
boom 2 4 6 4 2
flat 7 1 8 1 7
bust 1 5 6 3 3

A quick summary by year:

2009 – The top two picks have not played enough professional ball to assess their futures.

2008 – Lance Lynn and Brett Wallace have been solid and advanced quickly, while Shane Peterson leveled off in Double-A this year. Of course, the latter two are now part of the Oakland A’s system due to the Matt Holliday trade.

2007 – Both Jess Todd and Clayton Mortensen reached the majors rapidly, though both have been since dealt away. Pete Kozma’s breakout has yet to occur while David Kopp cannot remain healthy and finished the season back in A ball. The latter two still can raise their scores, though.

2006 – Chris Perez was a boom, but is also gone. College draftees Adam Ottavino, Jon Jay and Mark Hamilton did make Triple-A in their fourth seasons, but the jury remains out on their major league futures. Brad Furnish hasn’t mastered Double-A.

2005 – Colby Rasmus is obviously the cream of the crop. Tyler Greene reached the majors briefly in his fifth season, but has been a disappointment overall. The other four picks have not delivered, with three already gone from the organization and the fourth, Mark McCormick, perpetually injured.

As I have noted in other posts, I firmly believe the 2005 draft has been the overriding difference-maker for the rise in stature of the Cardinals system. This data reaffirms that other than Rasmus, the keys from 2005 were players taken in later rounds, not the extra picks they had that draft year.

boom flat bust
2009 0 2 0
2008 2 1 0
2007 2 1 1
2006 1 3 1
2005 1 1 4
total 6 8 6

In closing, certainly the extra picks the Cardinals enjoyed in recent years gave them a larger population of top players. So far, it has equated to additional trade fodder more than anything else.

It remains to be seen if the regular picks turn out to be a better group of players overall compared to the comp picks, but there seems to be considerably more remaining potential there.

More on La Russa’s future


Living in the Bay Area and having managed there with Oakland, it is only logical that Tony La Russa has many local media contacts. As such, he granted a phone interview to the San Francisco Chronicle, portions of which appeared in a Sunday article there.

La Russa reiterated an earlier contention that he does not plan to manage indefinitely. Following is his quote.

“When you get to the end of the year, you’re a little beat up and want to make a decision with as clear a head as you can,” he said by telephone in the wake of the stunning three-game loss to the Dodgers in the Division Series. “I told them I wouldn’t take forever. At some point, sooner rather than later, I’m going to do something else in baseball. Thirty years (as a manager) is a long time.”

Upon questioning, La Russa made it clear he was not contacted by the Giants before they re-hired manager Bruce Bochy and reiterated an earlier declaration that St. Louis will be his final managerial stop.

“No,” he said. “We just ended. I just had a meeting with owners and the front office. My hesitation to return has nothing to do with going someplace else.”

Chicagoans hoping for a managerial upgrade will be crying in their Old Style as a result. Also on Sunday, the Chicago Tribune’s Phil Rogers hoped that with the announcements by La Russa’s contemporaries Joe Torre, Bobby Cox and Lou Piniella that they plan to stop managing after next season, La Russa might take a one-year deal with St. Louis and jump ship in 12 months.

Nor would La Russa sit out for a season and come back elsewhere in 2010. In the San Francisco interview, he said he would not take a year off, like some other managers have done between assignments. That has spared us all from the potential of a year of La Russa in the television analyst’s chair or the like.

“When I go, I go,” La Russa said.

The article concluded with La Russa indicating a desire to remain in the game after retirement from managing. The writer’s speculation immediately zeroed in on La Russa moving to a front office job, potentially as a general manager. This idea has been floated by others in the past.

While I agree that La Russa has the credentials, I disagree in that I seriously question whether the 65-year-old would enjoy the position after 30 years of being in control in the dugout. In addition, general manager is hardly a retirement job, with considerable demands of its own and no defined off-season to rest and recharge.

All indications remain that we won’t know what La Russa’s next job will be for another year or two once his expected decision to return to St. Louis in 2010 and perhaps longer is announced.

On Holliday’s protection of Pujols


In the aftermath of his devastating error with two out in the ninth inning in the Cardinals-Dodgers National League Division Series game two, the future of soon-to-be free agent outfielder Matt Holliday remains one of the hottest debate topics across Cardinal Nation.

Assertions have been made here and elsewhere that he should not be re-signed by the Cardinals, despite his many contributions after having been acquired from Oakland on July 24.

One reason cited is that Holliday was a failure in what has been viewed by some as his primary role – protection for Albert Pujols in the middle of the Cardinals lineup.

Certainly that was the case in the NLDS, as Dodgers manager Joe Torre made a cognizant and obvious decision to not pitch to Pujols in any run-producing situation. As a result, Albert was issued three intentional walks in games one and two.

The clear reason for it was that heading into the DS, Holliday was not hitting well. Despite hitting 24 home runs on the season, the outfielder had just one after September 8. Holliday did connect for a solo shot in game two, but that was his only RBI of the series.

He batted just 2-for-12 (.167) in the three losses, and did not immediately atone for his game two gaffe. In Saturday’s season-ending game three, Holliday went 0-for-4 with three left on base.

This occurred despite the fact that Holliday was already October-proven. In the Rockies’ 2007 run to the World Series, Holliday had a very good postseason. His line in 11 games was .289/.319/.622 and included five home runs and 10 RBI.

Interestingly, during the 2009 regular season, the Cardinals faced the Dodgers seven times in August and won five of those games. All occurred after the Holliday trade. In those games, Torre issued one free pass to Pujols, but had his pitchers intentionally walk Holliday twice.

Not surprisingly, all seven games occurred during Holliday’s first 24 contests with the Cardinals. During that honeymoon period, he was absolutely blistering the baseball and consequently, Torre had his pitchers treat Holliday with kid gloves.

Torre wasn’t alone, as the NL as a whole gave Pujols far more opportunities to hit after Holliday’s arrival than prior. Here are the specifics of Pujols’ regular season intentional bases on balls (IBB) before July 24 and after:

Pujols’ IBB before Holliday: 34 in 411 PA = 1 per 12.1 plate appearances
Pujols’ IBB with Holliday: 10 in 289 PA = 1 per 28.9 plate appearances

In other words, the rate of Pujols’ intentional walks was more than cut in half once Holliday was batting behind him. That clearly demonstrates that the league as a whole respected the presence of Holliday.

It is surely fair to wonder why Pujols couldn’t do more with his greater opportunities to hit the ball, but his second half of the 2009 season is a different question for a different day.

If Holliday returns to the Cardinals, there is no reason to suspect the behavior exhibited by opposing managers and pitchers in 2009 would not continue in 2010 – as long as he is more consistent with the bat than he showed in his first few months as a Cardinal.


NLCS Footnote: The walk-a-thon continued in the NLCS as the Dodgers issued seven free passes in their game one loss to the Phillies. Not surprisingly, the 2-3-4 hitters received four, including two to Philly’s version of Pujols, number three hitter Ryan Howard. How much of that was by design and how much was due to the Ankiel-like wildness of 21-year-old lefty Clayton Kershaw is a fair question.

The Phils received just one free pass in game two, but Howard went deep for their only run. As such, I would expect Torre to have his hurlers pitch to the slugger more carefully the rest of the way.

How aggressive have Cardinals minor league player movements really been?


“Aggressive player movement” is a phrase so commonly and casually thrown around in discussions of the St. Louis Cardinals minor league organization over the last few years that it is has become accepted as fact my many.

What does it really mean?

The words denote upward opportunity in the system addressed by promotions of players before more traditional and conservative measures of player evaluation may deem them ready. These openings might occur most often due to others’ injuries or departure from the organization due to poor performance or trades.

The subject came up right here recently in the context of evaluating the reasons why the Cardinals system dropped off in team wins and individual player recognition in 2009. Injuries, trades and aggressive player movement were each offered as theories for the slide in system-wide won-loss records as well as fewer all-star and best-of type selections.

How might player movement be measured?

After some thought and discussion, I am offering a method to determine how aggressive player movements within a season actually were – without undertaking the impossible task of accurately recreating and counting every individual transaction across the entire minor league system over multiple past seasons.

The data and the conclusions to be drawn from the process can either support or refute the perception of player movement having been a substantive factor in the system’s performance in a given year.

There are a finite number of active roster spots on every club. Each season at each level, some number of players suit up. This total will exceed the number of roster spots and system-wide, even the quantity of players under contract. This “double-counting” is entirely due to player movement between levels.

We can understand the comparative volume of player movement during a season simply by totaling the number of players that appeared on each roster up and down the system each year. Differences in the cross-system totals across years illustrate the relative quantity of player movement by season whether up or down.

To that end, I tallied the number of players that collected stats at the top six levels of the Cardinals system each season since 2004. I then calculated the year-to-year differences and the six-year average. With the methodology the same each year, these annual comparisons are completely valid, in my opinion.

Addressing potential questions

Knowing some will question the validity of the data simply because of the conclusions that can be drawn will make them feel uncomfortable, I decided to address several expected objections right up front.

First is the impact of rehab stints. When players from a higher level are in the recovery process from an injury, they often begin their playing return at a lower level of competition. This especially affects the Florida teams as many players that are not a true prospect at that level come and go during the season.

I addressed this by running two sets of numbers. The first includes all players that suited up while the second encompasses only those that saw ten or more games of action at that level. That factors out all those that did not accrue substantial playing time.

I can see why the smaller group might offer the reader a greater level of comfort with the data, but as you will see below, it doesn’t change the relative comparisons or the conclusions.

Here are the numbers:

Top six levels 6-Yr Avg 2009 YTY 2008 YTY 2007 YTY 2006 YTY 2005 YTY 2004
Players >10 G 223 228 -8 236 16 220 2 218 -9 227 17 210
All players 294 294 -9 303 13 290 17 273 -37 310 16 294

Another question might arise regarding the impact of the Cardinals Gulf Coast League affiliate. This creation of this new level in the system, added three seasons ago, might somehow alter the representation of this supposed aggressive player movement, I expect some will claim.

To deal with that potential concern up front, for the three years since the GCL team began, I ran the data for the top seven levels of the system in both flavors, with all players and excluding the under-ten games played subset.

Here are those stats:

Including GCL 3-Yr Avg 2009 YTY 2008 YTY 2007
Players >10 G 257 256 -9 265 15 250
All players 349 348 -4 352 6 346

The conclusions remain the same:

  • In 2009, in-season player movement across the Cardinals system was LESS aggressive than in 2008, despite the supposed high level of injuries, trades and the like this past season.
  • The 2009 level of movement was basically right on the system-wide six-year average (without GCL) and the three-year average since the GCL team began.

  • The results do not substantively change when the under-ten games players at each level are removed.

I close with this final observation:

  • 2008 was the only recent year in which in-season minor league player movement was significantly higher than average. Yet that was also the year during this period when the Cardinals system posted their best collective won-loss record.

Might that mean more roster churn is good?

Certainly that is not the case unless the players being called upon to step up are actually ready to produce. Despite an average number of in-season moves, the Cardinals system as a whole delivered below-.500 results in 2009.

That is fact.

Might the Cardinals let Holliday and Boras pull a “Drew” on them?


Here is the environment. The St. Louis Cardinals want Matt Holliday back. All indications are that the outfielder and his agent Scott Boras are heading out into the open market. Boras has made rumblings that he is looking for a Mark Teixeira-kind of contract.

Last winter, the first baseman signed with the Yankees for eight-years, $180 million. That may be a neighborhood in which the Cardinals would not want to live, especially with an Albert Pujols extension that looms even larger still in the planning stages.

From the Cardinals perspective, their direction for next two years seems clear, but things get fuzzy after that. Pujols, who may not be motivated to sign a new offer any time soon, has two years remaining on his current deal.

What happens after 2011?

Manager Tony La Russa is not under contract for 2010, but is expected to return. For at least the last 20 years, he has always signed either two or three-year deals. A new two-year commitment would take La Russa through 2011, like Pujols.

Chris Carpenter is also locked up through 2011, though the club holds a 2012 option. Early in the 2012 season, the ace will turn 37 and has a history of physical problems. Ryan Ludwick will be first-time free agent eligible following the 2011 season, as well.

No matter what happens, the Cardinals 2012 cupboard should not be entirely bare, however. Catcher Yadier Molina and emerging co-ace Adam Wainwright should be around through at least 2012 and 2013, respectively.

Still, in deciding whether or not to sign with St. Louis, could Holliday have concerns about the club’s competitiveness following the 2011 season? Though he would likely never settle for a two-year deal only, there is another possibility – build an early out into a longer-term contract.

It is a strategy Boras has used to his advantage in the recent past.

Boras clients and opting out

During the 2007 World Series, the agent announced that Alex Rodriguez was opting out of his contract with the Yankees due to concerns over the club’s future direction. Of course, it was merely a negotiating ploy to get the New Yorkers to pay more for A-Rod’s services.

It worked to the tune of ten years, $275 million, a new MLB record. It eclipsed Rodriguez’ own ten-year, $252 million deal signed with Texas, of which he completed seven years before tearing it up and starting over.

A year earlier, Boras left the Dodgers high and dry when he sold high on former Cardinals outfielder J.D. Drew. Having led Los Angeles with 100 RBI in 2006, Drew then bailed out of the final three years, $33 million remaining on his five-year, $55 million Dodgers contract.

Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti was understandably angry, stating that Drew had “changed his word”. He also noted that Boras never asked for Drew’s contract to be re-negotiated before they bolted onto the open market.

A free agent again as he was two years earlier, Drew re-emerged as a member of the Boston Red Sox. His new deal was for five years, $70 million.

I have often wondered if Boras’ and Manny Ramirez’ shady act to get Manny out of Boston and into a Dodger uniform wasn’t some kind of payback for the Drew escapade. Even if not, every new contract means a bigger cut for the agent. He never loses – he just wins less on rare occasions.

But back to Holliday and the Cardinals.

Could the wishes of the player, his agent and the club come together to enable a four-, five- or even six-year contract with an out after just two years? Why not?

The slippery slope

If the Cards gave such a deal to Holliday, why would not Albert Pujols expect the same kind of structure? After all, Pujols has been the most vocal of Cardinals players about wanting to ensure the organization fields a competitive team on an ongoing basis.

In fact, maybe Holiday and Pujols could time their perpetual two-year outs to align, regularly holding a pair of big guns to the heads of Cardinals ownership to keep the team strong – or else! La Russa could hang with the bi-annual plan as long as cares to, as well.

Walton on Wednesday Talking Baseball Live show


I will be returning as one of the guests on this week’s FantasyPros911.com’s Talking Baseball Live show on Blog Talk Radio. The segment, hosted by Lenny Melnick and Paul Greco, can be heard live at 8:15 p.m. Eastern on Wednesday, October 14th and on demand afterward.

Our focus will be on fantasy baseball, specifically on my 2009 championship in National League Tout Wars, one of the industry’s most prestigious and challenging leagues. It was a fantastic season, with Lenny and Paul among my league competitors. Of course, we will also discuss the Cardinals quick exit from the post-season.


https://www.blogtalkradio.com/TalkingBaseballLive

Lenny Melnick and Paul Greco of FantasyPros911.com bring their unique style of Fantasy Baseball expertise to Fantasy Baseball owners across the Internet. Lenny, a two-time LABR champion, has also padded his long Fantasy Baseball resume with a Tout Wars championship. Paul has a varied fantasy sports resume. He is part owner of Gotham Sports Media and is Associate Editor of BaseballDigest.com, bringing Fantasy Baseball to the online version of the popular magazine.

After Ankiel hit the wall, is it now time to hit the road?


In what may have been his St. Louis swan song, enigmatic outfielder Rick Ankiel pinch-hit with two outs in the bottom of the ninth inning of game three of the National League Division Series Saturday night.

Not surprisingly, he struck out, the same outcome as in his ninth-inning appearance in game one. This time, it both ended his year and that of his team.

No one knows what the stoic Ankiel was feeling. Perhaps it was relief.

Getting punched out by opposing hurlers had become an alarming late-season habit for the free agent to be. From September 15 through the end of the regular season, Ankiel had 32 at-bats. He struck out in exactly 50 percent of them, 16, while collecting just six hits (.188).

To help put Ankiel’s recent rate into perspective, Arizona’s Mark Reynolds eclipsed his own Major League record for strikeouts with 223 this season. Reynolds did that in 578 at-bats, fanning 38.6 percent of the time.

Some people suspect that Ankiel’s bone-jarring May 4 collision with the Busch Stadium outfield wall caused a lingering shoulder injury that explains his decline. His stats would suggest otherwise.

At the time of his accident, the left-handed hitter’s line was .247/.326/.395 for an anemic OPS of .721. As a point of comparison, light-hitting former Cardinals outfield reserve So Taguchi has a career .717 OPS. Ankiel’s OPS in his partial 2007 season and in 2008 were .863 and .843, respectively.

So one might conclude that Ankiel had hit the wall even before he hit the wall.

It is fair to note that Ankiel did perform even worse once he returned, ending the season at .231/.285/.387. Though some attribute a loss of playing time to the presence of rookie outfielder Colby Rasmus, the numbers indicate that Ankiel played himself out of full-time duty.

His .672 OPS for the season was actually below that of former teammate Chris Duncan, whose .687 OPS with St. Louis in 2009 bought him a very bumpy ride and eventually a one-month ticket to Pawtucket.

Ankiel, labeled “The Natural” by some due to his considerable athletic ability and his transition from supremely-talented but troubled pitcher to power-hitting outfielder, is the longest-tenured current Cardinals player.

The left-hander signed in 1997, Tony La Russa’s second year with the organization, and made the majors just two years later. Through the ensuing years, Ankiel had a well-publicized meltdown, had to be talked out of quitting, dealt with a challenging position change then several serious injuries and waved off documents that directly connected him with PEDs. Yet the Cardinals and their fans stuck with him for the most part.

Represented by agent Scott Boras, Ankiel has been a free agent twice in the past, but rejoined the Cardinals each time. Perhaps it was partially a return favor for all that had been done for him through the down periods or maybe it was the most comfortable, easiest route to take.

Yet this time feels different. Ankiel is now an established, albeit badly slumping major league outfielder who may have finally worn out his welcome in St. Louis.

La Russa, perhaps Ankiel’s strongest supporter over the years, minimized the chance of the 30-year-old returning to the Cardinals in 2010, reported the St. Louis Post-Dispatch.

As I said earlier, no one knows how Ankiel felt in his final at-bat or his view of his impending free agency, for that matter. He made sure of that.

Ankiel reportedly ducked out on waiting reporters at Busch Stadium on Sunday, putting an exclamation point on his Cardinals career. He told those assembled he would answer questions after loading his belongings in his automobile, but instead drove away.

Even to the end, La Russa praised Ankiel, closing a Sunday interview with this assertion.

“There’s nothing about Rick’s game that can’t be fixed.”

That begs the obvious follow on question. “Why wasn’t his game fixed, then?”

I don’t know who should be responsible for “The Natural” turning into “The Noodle” at the plate. Is it beleaguered hitting coach Hal McRae, assistant hitting coach Mike Aldrete or even the boss, La Russa?

Maybe the problem is the player himself. There have been whispers that Ankiel’s difficulties may have been exacerbated by an unwillingness to adapt his batting style to align with coaching suggestions. It is clear his past problems with pitching were not physical.

Whatever the reasons, it has probably reached the point in Ankiel’s career where it would be best for all involved for him to step out of the Cardinals’ protective cocoon and strike out on his own with another organization.

If Ankiel ever returns to Busch Stadium wearing another uniform, just as with former Cardinals like Taguchi, the vast majority of the fans will remember the good times and cheer accordingly.

Best of luck, Rick. We will never stop wondering what could have been.

MLB spinmasters at work on down attendance news


MLB’s recent press release trumpeted the following:

“Major League Baseball announced today that despite the nation’s worst economic downturn in 80 years, the 30 Clubs drew 73,418,479 fans during the 2009 championship season, producing the fifth largest total attendance in MLB history.”

Here are the numbers they left out of the release:

MLB attendance YTY
2009 73,418,479 -6.6%
2008 78,588,004 -1.2%
2007 79,503,175 4.6%
2006 76,042,787 1.5%
2005 74,926,174 2.6%
2004 73,022,969

In other words, MLB had its second consecutive down year, its largest decline and lowest total since 2004.

Buried in a later paragraph, they slipped in the bad news, but even found a way to fudge that.

“Because of the economy, this year’s total is 6.6 percent less than last year’s total, but is actually only 5.2 percent lower when accounting for the reduced capacities of the two new ballparks in New York. The total number of seats available at Citi Field and Yankee Stadium is approximately 1.5 million fewer than at the old ballparks.”

Let’s see. When the new parks were in planning, the spin was that the new facilities would operate at higher capacity for every game, therefore increasing season-long attendance.

That is precisely what happened in St. Louis, albeit in a better economic environment. Despite the new Busch being smaller than the old, a new club home season attendance record of 3,552,180 was set in 2007 in its first full season at maximum capacity. In all fairness, the club was also coming off a world championship.

Now the story changes for the MLB spinmasters.

Of course, not mentioned is how higher per-seat revenue projections from the new parks panned out since revenues are not reported.

Not bound by having to be politically sensitive, USA Today calls blasts this year’s attendance decline across MLB as being the “biggest single-season loss since Harry Truman was president” in a non-strike-related season.

USA Today notes 2/3 of the 30 MLB teams saw a year-to-year drop, including the Cardinals, though the club seems delighted to have come in at 3,343,252, a decline of 2.6 percent from 2008. That was actually a smaller decline than the 3.4 percent drop the team saw from their record-breaking 2007 to 2008.

In contrast to last season when the Cardinals’ percentage decline was greater than the MLB total, their decline this year was less than the entirety of MLB, -2.6 percent versus -6.6 percent.

There was another important benefit. By blowing away their original 2009 projection of 3,000,000 by 11.4 percent, reaching 3,343,252, the club states the revenue from the increase in ticket sales enabled them to make in-season trades for Mark DeRosa and Matt Holliday.

Cardinals Attendance YTY
2009 3,343,252 -2.6%
2008 3,432,917 -3.4%
2007 3,552,180 4.3%
2006 3,407,114 -3.7% Busch III
2005 3,538,948 16.1% Busch II
2004 3,048,427

Cardinals 2009 closing time opens 2010 offseason


“Every new beginning comes from some other beginnings end,” goes the well-known Semisonic tune “Closing Time”.

With the final out of the Los Angeles Dodgers’ three-game sweep of the Cardinals in the National League Division Series, St. Louis’ 2009-2010 off-season unofficially began.

Say goodbye to the following Cardinals, all impending free agents. They include the projected starting left side of the infield over the winter and two members of the season-opening rotation.

  • Troy Glaus
  • Khalil Greene
  • Joel Pineiro
  • Todd Wellemeyer

These players, also free agent eligible, may or may not return. Two, Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa, were acquired via trade during the season, while another, John Smoltz, was added after having been released by the Boston Red Sox:

  • Rick Ankiel
  • Mark DeRosa
  • Matt Holliday
  • Jason LaRue
  • John Smoltz

The entire coaching staff is also not under contract for next season:

  • Tony La Russa
  • Dave Duncan
  • Marty Mason
  • Hal McRae
  • Dave McKay
  • Jose Oquendo
  • Joe Pettini
  • Mike Aldrete

As a footnote, in 13 first-round playoff series over his career with the White Sox, A’s and Cardinals, this was the first time a La Russa club was swept. His first-round record is now 9-4 overall, 6-2 with St. Louis. 2001 was his other Cardinals club that exited early, though they lost in the NLDS game five.

Cardinals NLDS optimism and pessimism


Not knowing if the reader might be a glass half-full person or a glass half-empty type, I am presenting several League Division Series factoids in such a manner there is something for everyone.

First, a backdrop. Since having been instituted in 1995, there have been 56 LDS series across MLB, four per year. In 62.5 percent of the cases, one club had taken a commanding 2-0 lead through the initial two contests.

Specifically, only 21 times after game two, was a series split at one victory apiece. In a vast majority of the past LDS’s, 35, one of the teams had built a two-games-to-none lead.

The remainder of this article will focus on those 35 past series with the conditions matching the current Cardinals-Dodgers LDS.

For those that see the St. Louis-Los Angeles series as essentially being over with the Dodgers the winner, data from past series shows that a club in that position does come out of top a vast majority of the time.

For those Cardinals fans believing there is a chance, if past results are any indication, their team can still take the series if they can somehow make it as far as game five.

The following points are offered in “Pessimist” and “Optimist” format with short conclusions oriented toward the optimists after each.

Pessimist: No National League team has ever come back to win an LDS series after being down two games to none. Over the last 14 years, 17 NL clubs have tried and failed.

Conclusion: The Cardinals would have to be the first.

Optimist: Four of 18 American League teams have come back to win an LDS series after being down two games to none. The four comeback clubs were the 1995 Mariners, 1999 Red Sox, 2001 Yankees and 2003 Red Sox.

Conclusion: It not only can be done, it has been done.

Pessimist: Of the 35 MLB teams to be up 2-0 in an LDS, 89 percent of them won the series. 63 percent (22 teams) won game three to sweep and another 26 percent (9) lost game three but ended it in game four.

Conclusion: Sweeps are prevalent, yet if the team with the advantage can’t wrap it up…

Optimist: Of the 35 teams that were up 2-0 in an LDS, none of the four that lost games three and four was able to bounce back and win game five. In other words, once momentum was taken away from the early leader, they didn’t get it back.

The four stumblers were the 1995 Yankees, 1999 Indians, 2001 A’s and 2003 A’s.

Conclusion: If the Cards can somehow find a way to take games three and four, if past results are any indication, they may be able to hold serve and take game five as well.

Pessimist: If the current situation sounds familiar, it should. However, the shoe has always been on the other foot. Until now, Tony La Russa’s Cardinals clubs have never been down 2-0 in an LDS, but they have been up by that mark six times.

That’s right. In all six Cardinals LDS wins under La Russa, his club assumed a 2-0 lead. Four times, they swept and the other two series were won in four games.

(With La Russa’s 6-1 career LDS record with the Cardinals, only once did his club fail to advance to the League Championship Series. The 2001 Cardinals took LDS games two and four before falling in game five to Arizona.)

Conclusion: La Russa’s challenge is to lead his club to another first, coming back from an unfamiliar 2-0 LDS deficit.


Clearly, having been defeated in games one and two behind co-aces Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright mean the 2009 Cardinals are at a tremendous disadvantage, as the 89 percent success rate for opponents in a similar past situation indicates. The manner in which game two ended can’t help, either.

The benefit from the Cardinals returning home to Busch Stadium is real, yet the uncertainty of what to expect from game three starting pitcher Joel Pineiro and the mystery surrounding the identity of St. Louis’ game four starter does little to foster confidence.

The questions are simple: “Can the Cardinals win game three? And if they do, can they do it again? And again?

We will know the answers soon enough…


Following is the supporting detail behind the points made above. Table supplied by Tom Orf.

Teams with 2-0 LDS lead, MLB, 1995-2008 (team with 2-0 lead listed first)

Won in 3 # Won in 4 # Won in 5 # Lost in 5 #
2008 LAD-CHC 1 BOS-LAA,PHI-MIL,TBR-CHW 3
2007 ARZ-CHC,BOS-LAA,COL-PHI 3 CLE-NYY 1
2006 NYM-LAD,OAK-MIN 2 STL-SDP 1
2005 CHW-BOS,STL-SDP 2
2004 BOS-ANA 1 STL-LAD 1
2003 OAK-BOS 1
2002 STL-ARZ 1
2001 ATL-HOU 1 OAK-NYY 1
2000 SEA-CHW,STL-ATL 2
1999 NYY-TEX 1 CLE-BOS 1
1998 ATL-CHC,NYY-TEX 2
1997 ATL-HOU,FLA-SFG 2 BAL-SEA 1
1996 ATL-LAD,STL-SDP 2 BAL-CLE 1
1995 CIN-LAD,CLE-BOS 2 ATL-COL 1 0 NYY-SEA 1
total 22 9 0 4
percent of total 62.9% 25.7% 0.0% 11.4%

Walton on KXnO FOX Sports Radio Friday


Catch me talking Cardinals baseball with Matt Perrault and Ken Miller on KXnO FOX Sports Radio 1460 in Des Moines today (Friday) at 6:05 p.m. Central.


Go to kxno.com for the live stream.


For Scout.com subscribers that miss it, I will post the audio at TheCardinalNation.com following the segment.

Holliday isn’t Denkinger or Buckner


There isn’t much to say about the Cardinals crushing loss to the Dodgers in the ninth inning of game two of the NLDS that will not be said with greater emotion elsewhere.

Some will want the head of closer Ryan Franklin, who only gave himself one chance to get the final out and continues a stretch of undependable play. Others will blast outfielder Colby Rasmus for making a rookie baserunning mistake that cost his club an additional run cushion.

Most will direct their venom toward outfielder Matt Holliday, who misplayed a line drive that should have been the 27th Dodgers out into the error that directly led to the defeat. Some are already calling for the Cardinals not to re-sign him due to the miscue.

Certainly the error was costly but not unprecedented.

Tom Orf confirms the other time in the history of the Cardinals franchise that the club lost a post-season game in the ninth inning with the lead was game six of the 1985 World Series. That is most commonly known as the Denkinger game.

In that case, the Cardinal Nation had someone else to blame as first base umpire Don Denkinger clearly blew the call on a play in the bottom of the ninth, calling the Royals’ Jorge Orta safe when it was clear he was out. It was a momentum-changing play in a potential clincher for the Cardinals as the Royals went on to win both that contest and then the deciding game seven.

For Cardinals faithful, there is no Denkinger this time other than one of their own – Holliday. Like it or not, if the Cardinals cannot come back to win the next three games against the Dodgers, the free agent-to-be may be labeled the 2009 Cardinals version of Bill Buckner, whose infamous error in the possible clinching game six of the 1986 World Series opened the door for the Mets to come back and defeat the Red Sox in seven games.

It will be most interesting to see how both Holliday and his teammates respond to the Thursday loss. In Buckner’s case, following his error, the 1986 Red Sox still had another opportunity – another game could still be played. Just as in the previous year in the Denkinger series, the controversial play did cost the chance to clinch, but did not lose game seven.

The 2009 Cardinals are in a position somewhat reminiscent, but again, Holliday’s error did not occur in a clinching situation for his club. It remains to be seen if the Cardinals can recover. It is up to them. Saturday is a new day with another chance to win along with the opportunity to do the same thing two times more.

Will the Cardinals answer the bell or fold like their predecessors in 1985 and the Sox in 1986? If they can’t come back, Holliday may become the convenient lightning rod, fair or not.

Reheating Cardinals NLDS game one leftovers


DeRosa shows he belongs

Despite some Cardinals fans pining for a benching or even leaving him off the playoff roster entirely, third baseman Mark DeRosa was one of the few bright spots for the club in their 5-3 NLDS game one loss Wednesday night in Los Angeles.

With three hits, DeRosa became the 16th Cardinals player to do so in an Division Series game. Fernando Vina is the only one with four hits, accomplished in game two of the 2002 NLDS. Jim Edmonds’ four three-hit NLDS games is tops on the Cardinals and second to Andruw Jones’ five such games in MLB history.


DeRosa has been consistently great in the first round. His all-time LDS average of .415 is second-best all-time, with only Hall of Famer Cal Ripken’s .441 better.


Stand by me


Posters here already know my opinion that leaving the 14 Cardinals runners on base was the single biggest factor in Wednesday night’s loss.


Not once in their long post-season history had the Cardinals left 14 runners on base in one game. Their previous playoff record was 13 stranded in game seven of the 1982 World Series, a game which they still won by a 6-3 score.


Other post-season games with high runners stranded counts include 12 in game five of the same 1982 World Series (a 6-4 loss), while they left 11 on base ten different times. The most recent was in game three of the 2006 World Series (a 5-0 win over Detroit).


Walk on by


Albert Pujols tied Barry Bonds for the MLB record of three post-season games with two intentional walks. Albert still has something to strive for as Bonds had three intentional free passes in one of those games.


It was the sixth time a Cardinals player has been intentionally walked twice in a post-season game. Along with Albert’s three, Jack Clark in 1985, Harry Walker in 1946 and Marty Marion in 1944 are the others.

Double down again

As if Cardinals fans didn’t suspect it already, catcher Yadier Molina officially owns MLB’s highest rate of grounding into double plays this season. He added another to finish off the first inning threat on Wednesday night, not included here, when he was inexplicably batting sixth in the order.

Listed below are all MLB players with at least 20 GIDP during the 2009 regular season, ranked by highest rate of GIDP. Pujols finished tenth.

Player GIDP AB Team AB/GIDP
Yadier Molina 27 481 STL 17.81
Mike Lowell 24 445 BOS 18.54
Kevin Kouzmanoff 25 529 SDP 21.16
Ivan Rodriguez 20 425 TOT 21.25
Evan Longoria 27 584 TBR 21.63
Miguel Tejada 29 635 HOU 21.90
Hunter Pence 25 585 HOU 23.40
Adrian Gonzalez 23 552 SDP 24.00
Jose Lopez 25 613 SEA 24.52
Albert Pujols 23 568 STL 24.70
Yunel Escobar 21 528 ATL 25.14
Michael Cuddyer 22 588 MIN 26.73
Troy Tulowitzki 20 543 COL 27.15
Alexis Rios 21 582 TOT 27.71
Ryan Zimmerman 22 610 WSN 27.73
Miguel Cabrera 22 611 DET 27.77
Brandon Phillips 21 584 CIN 27.81
Robinson Cano 22 637 NYY 28.95
Carlos Lee 21 610 HOU 29.05
Jhonny Peralta 20 582 CLE 29.10
Orlando Cabrera 22 656 TOT 29.82
Billy Butler 20 608 KCR 30.40

As always, thanks to Tom Orf for sending along these factoids.

Smoltz and Lohse: Different post-season bullpen histories


Unless/until one of them is named the starter for the National League Division Series game four, St. Louis Cardinals starters Kyle Lohse and John Smoltz are available in relief. The two veterans have vastly different bullpen portfolios, however.

Even the casual baseball fan probably knows a bit about Smoltz the reliever. Already on his way to the Hall of Fame as a starter for Atlanta, Smoltz moved into the closer’s role in 2001. It was a move designed to prolong his career following his recovery from Tommy John surgery.

Smoltz spent four years as the Braves’ ninth inning man before returning to the rotation and is the only player in MLB history with 200 wins and 150 saves. His highest finish in the Cy Young Award voting following his 1996 selection was as a closer when he placed third in 2002.

As a reliever, Smoltz’ career ERA is 2.41, a full run under his starting mark. His WHIP in that role is a stellar 0.976.

In 11 post-season appearances out of the pen from 2001 through 2004, Smoltz allowed four earned runs in 18 1/3 innings for an ERA of 1.96. He fanned 16 and walked just four.

The open question is what percent of that pitcher the current 42-year-old version of Smoltz is.

Lohse’s pen history is less distinguished. His only Major League stint greater than a couple of games relieving occurred during his sixth and final season in Minnesota when he was bounced from the rotation and briefly sent to Triple-A.

That year, in 2006, Lohse’s 14 pen outings for the Twins made up over half of his career relief appearances. In 24 career relief games, his ERA is 4.28 with a decent WHIP of 1.20.

Despite the few relief appearances in the regular season, five of six Lohse’s career post-season outings have been out of the pen as he pitched in that role for the 2002 and 2004 Minnesota Twins and 2007 Philadelphia Phillies.

With Minnesota, Lohse allowed three runs in five innings in his one and only post-season start to date but yielded just one earned run and nine strikeouts in seven playoff innings.

It was an entirely different story in the City of Brotherly Love in 2007. While the ledger shows that Lohse was charged with a single run in 1 1/3 innings of the NLDS against Colorado, it was considered the turning point of the series.

Lohse, the scheduled game four starter (sound familiar?), was brought into the fourth inning of game two in relief of struggling starter Kyle Kendrick. The situation was tough – bases loaded – but there were two outs and light-hitting Rockies second baseman Kaz Matsui was up.

After getting ahead in the count 1-2, Lohse grooved a fastball which Little Matsui promptly drilled well into the right field seats of a stunned Citizens Bank Park. Matsui’s first career grand slam turned a 3-2 Phillies lead into a 6-3 deficit from which they would never recover.

Lohse never got that game four start as the Phils were promptly swept by Colorado three straight.

Let’s hope that chapter of the history book isn’t repeated here in 2009.

Meet the Cards-Dodgers NLDS umpiring crew


Ever since umpire Phil Cuzzi ejected both Jim Edmonds and Tony La Russa in the 2006 LCS Game 4, I have paid special attention to the crews selected for postseason duty.

The good news is that none of the notorious umpires with whom I am familiar are part of the 2009 Cardinals-Dodgers NLDS. The six are crew chief Dana DeMuth, Brian O’Nora, Mike Everitt, Jeff Nelson, Ed Rapuano and Tony Randazzo.

DeMuth is no stranger to Busch Stadium as he was given the honor of serving as home plate umpire for the MLB All-Star Game in St. Louis on July 14.

In looking into these umpires further, I ran across a specialized website like no other. “The Left Field Corner” documented every one of the 168 umpire ejections that occurred across MLB this season. Each situation is explained, the umpire call is reviewed, pitch f/x data is included and even video is provided.

Though none of this crew’s ejections were of the Cardinals this season, here are their totals:

Rapuano: 4

Everitt: 3

O’Nora, Nelson: 2

Randazzo, DeMuth: 0

Most of the tossings were of the garden-variety – balls and strikes, the zone and the like. O’Nora’s ejections were as a result of fisticuffs between Red Sox third baseman Kevin Youkilis and Tigers pitcher Rick Porcello on August 11.

On July 11, Nelson had one of the stranger calls when he waved then-Oakland A’s outfielder Matt Holliday from second to third on a pitched ball. The problem was in that Tampa Bay’s catcher had used his facemask to stop and pick up the baseball. That’s a no-no. Even so, Rays manager Joe Maddon was incensed.

Here’s the video.

But the oddest umpire play this season anywhere in MLB starred Rapuano. On August 9, he ejected Phillies centerfielder Shane Victorino for arguing a ball call to an opposing Florida Marlins hitter. Victorino gestured and yelled in protest from his defensive position way out in center field and was tossed by home plate ump Rapuano.

Here’s the video.

If you’re interested in fan voting for the best and worst MLB umpires this season, make sure you check out “The Left Field Corner”.

Here’s hoping this is the last time we discuss the NLDS umpires.

For reference, I pulled the official bios of the crew. They follow.

Dana DeMuth – Crew Chief – 32

MLB service time: 25 Years

Became a member of the Major League staff in 1985…has worked the All-Star Game (1990 and 2001), Division Series (1996, 97, 99, 2001, 08), League Championship Series (1991, 95, 2000, 02, 07) and World Series (1993, 98, 2001)…served as crew chief for the National League Division Series between the Brewers and Phillies in 2008…worked the Tokyo round of the 2009 World Baseball Classic…previously umpired in the Arizona Instructional League, California League, Texas League, Pacific Coast League, Colombia Winter League and Dominican Winter League.

Brian O’Nora – 7

MLB service time: 12 Years

Joined the Major League staff in 1999…has worked the Division Series (2004, 06), the 2008 American League Championship Series and the 2000 All-Star Game in Atlanta…worked the Dodgers-Mets Division Series in 2006…attended the Joe Brinkman Umpire School in 1985…previously umpired in the Appalachian League (1985), Midwest League (1986-87), Eastern League (1988-89), Pacific Coast League (1990), American Association (1991), International League, Florida Instructional League (1985-89) and Puerto Rican Winter League (1990-92).

Mike Everitt – 57

MLB service time: 10 Years

Joined the Major League staff in 1999…worked the Division Series (2001, 04-07), League Championship Series (2002-03, 08), the 2007 World Series and the 2006 All-Star Game…officiated the 2008 NLCS…attended the Harry Wendelstedt Umpire School (1987)…previously umpired in the Gulf Coast League (1987), Midwest League (1988, 90-91), Eastern League (1992), Texas League (1993-94), Venezuelan Winter League (1994-95) and Pacific Coast League (1995-99)…was the home plate umpire for Kevin Millwood’s no-hitter on April 27, 2003.

Jeff Nelson – 45

MLB service time: 11 Years

Became a member of the Major League staff in 1999…worked the Division Series (2000, 01, 05, 08), the League Championship Series (2002, 04), the 2005 World Series and the 2006 All-Star Game…worked the 2008 National League Division Series between the Dodgers and Cubs…was behind the plate when Mark McGwire hit his 500th career home run…worked the game in which Rickey Henderson collected his 3,000th hit…was an instructor at MLB’s inaugural Umpire Camps (MLBUC.com), held at MLB’s Urban Youth Academy in Compton, California, in November 2006…attended the Joe Brinkman Umpire School in 1989…previously umpired in the Pioneer League (1989), Arizona Instructional League (1989), Florida State League (1990-91), Eastern League (1992-93), American Association (1997), Pacific Coast League (1994-96, 98), Florida State Instructional League (1990-93) and Arizona Fall League (1996).

Ed Rapuano – 19

MLB service time: 18.5 Years

Became a member of the Major League staff in 1991…has worked the All-Star Game (1995, 2008), Division Series (1997, 98, 2001, 03, 06, 08), League Championship Series (1999, 2000, 02, 04-05) and World Series (2001, 03)…worked the Miami round of the 2009 World Baseball Classic…worked the 1990 Hall of Fame Game in Cooperstown, NY…attended the Harry Wendelstedt Umpire School in 1985…previously umpired in the New York-Penn League (1985), Florida State League (1986-87), Southern League (1988) and Triple-A Alliance (1989).

Tony Randazzo – 59

MLB service time: 9.5 Years

Joined the Major League staff in 1999…worked the 2001 Midsummer Classic and the Division Series in 2004 and 2006…was part of the crew that worked the Twins-A’s Division Series in 2006…previously umpired in the New York-Penn League (1989), Florida State League (1990-91), Texas League (1992-93), Arizona Fall League (1993), American Association (1994-95) and Pacific Coast League (1996-99).

Can the lefties stop Cardinal killer Thome?


With all the talk about the matchups during the upcoming Cardinals-Dodgers NLDS, there is an important late-game possibility that should strike even greater fear in the hearts of Cardinals fans than previously.

New Dodgers designated pinch hitter Jim Thome has a long, storied and deserved reputation for being a Cardinal killer. The left-handed slugger with 564 career home runs has an even 100 at-bats against St. Louis pitching in his 19-year career.

Thome has collected 43 hits versus Cardinals hurlers, so you can do the quick math. Of those, 18 were home runs with a whopping 40 RBI to his credit. In addition, he drew 31 walks, making his career line against the Cardinals a super-human .430/.565/1.010.

It goes without saying that Thome’s 1.575 OPS put up against the helpless St. Louis pitchers is by far his best career performance against any of the 30 MLB clubs. Having played in both leagues, Thome has faced them all, with a career OPS of .961.

But the Cardinals have a pair of new left-handed relievers in 2009, the only lefties on the club’s roster. Each has done a good job for St. Louis during the regular season.

Veterans Trever Miller and Dennys Reyes have each spent considerable time in the American League, so they have seen Thome before. They should be able to slow him down, right?

Unfortunately, it works the other way too. If you have a weak stomach, stop reading now.

Following is a summary of how Thome has fared against the two.

Versus Miller: More feast than famine for Thome. Good news for the Cards: three strikeouts in six plate appearances. Bad news: a single, double and a walk for four RBI in the other three appearances.

Versus Reyes: Even worse. In 13 plate appearances, Thome reached base six times. Three walks, a single and two home runs, five RBI. Two strikeouts, though.

Combined: 5-for-15 with five strikeouts plus four walks. A double and two home runs, nine RBI. .333 average, .600 on-base percentage, .800 slugging percentage for a nice, neat, devastating 1.400 OPS.

(For those who will surely ask, lefty Royce Ring, bumped from the 40-man roster earlier this season, exiled to Triple-A Memphis all summer long and not called up in September, had his own roller coaster ride with Thome. In four career plate appearances, Ring walked him twice and fanned him the other two.)

Remember the above results are not included in Thome’s career 1.575 OPS against the Cardinals above. Thome has yet to bat against St. Louis this season and therefore against either of the lefties since they first donned the Birds on the Bat.

So in a perverse sort of way, the optimists could observe that the Reyes and Miller-generated 1.400 OPS is actually more effective than the other Cardinals pitchers have been against Thome over time.

For the rest of us out here in the real world, look out if the game is on the line and Thome comes to the plate against any of the Cardinals. Though the 39-year-old cannot play in the field, he will likely be a factor during at least one crucial moment in the NLDS.

Don’t be even a tiny bit more confident if the pitcher tasked with trying to get him out is one of the Cardinals lefties.

Considering Carpenter’s Cy Case


The other day, we looked at Adam Wainwright’s 2009 season and through his results, his Cy Young Award candidacy, through the prism of the Triple Milestone categories. Had he not been let down by his teammates in his final start, Wainwright would have been just the ninth major league pitcher this decade to win at least 20 games, fan 200 or more and post an ERA of 3.00 or less. He achieved two of three, but finished with 19 wins.

Today, it is Chris Carpenter’s turn in the spotlight.

Carpenter backers note his league-leading 2.24 ERA, his efficiency, his won-loss percentage and like in Wainwright case, rue each no-decision he took due to lack of support from his St. Louis Cardinals teammates.

We are not going to look at standard wins and ERA in depth here, as I simply conclude that in the past, any number of pitchers have won the Cy Young Award with higher ERAs and fewer victories than Carpenter’s 17. Yet I should also note the leader in wins often has the advantage.

The most recent Cy-winning example was Arizona’s Brandon Webb, who logged just 16 wins and a relatively-hefty 3.10 ERA in 2006. That season, six NL pitchers tied with the most victories at 16, so no one topped Webb in that category. In terms of ERA, every single one of the 16 starting pitchers to have won the Cy Young Award in both leagues since Pedro Martinez in 2000 (1.74 ERA) had a higher ERA than Carp this season.

As former Cardinals pitcher Joe Magrane knows all too well, taking the ERA title does not necessarily translate to Cy Young Award votes without the “W’s” to accompany it. The current MLB Network broadcaster earned the NL ERA title in 1988 at 2.18, but his teammates gave him just five wins in 24 starts. He did not receive a single Cy Young Award mention, but did place fourth the next year with 18 victories in the books despite a higher ERA, 2.91. Magrane was the club’s last ERA champ prior to Carp, a gap of 21 years.

Due to an unfortunate oblique injury, Carp missed about five weeks of action earlier this season. As a result, he made just 28 starts compared to Wainwright’s 34.

To try to put Carp’s excellence into further perspective, Tom Orf pulled several lists.


The first is a measure of consistent stinginess in baserunners allowed. It denotes those MLB pitchers with enough innings to have qualified for the NL ERA title while allowing eight or fewer hits and two or fewer walks per nine innings over at least three different seasons since 1901.

Carpenter has become the 12th member of this elite group.

Pitchers with at least three seasons of eight or fewer hits and two or fewer walks per nine innings, career, MLB, 1901-2009

Pitcher From To Years HOF
Greg Maddux 1993 1998 5 yes*
Juan Marichal 1963 1971 5 yes
Addie Joss 1903 1907 5 yes
Pedro Martinez 1999 2005 4 yes*
Don Sutton 1971 1981 4 yes
Fergie Jenkins 1968 1974 4 yes
Chris Carpenter 2005 2009 3 TBD
Kevin Brown 1996 2000 3 no
Tom Seaver 1968 1973 3 yes
Jim Bunning 1964 1966 3 yes
Pete Alexander 1916 1919 3 yes
Cy Young 1901 1908 3 yes

* projected

Though it has nothing to do with Carpenter’s 2009 Cy Young Award candidacy, I added the Hall of Fame status of these 12. Assuming that Pedro and Greg Maddux are locks as I believe they are, 10 of the earlier 11 are either in the Hall or on their way.


The second table uses the same criteria for a single season, listing those Cardinals pitchers with enough innings to have qualified for the NL ERA title while allowing eight or fewer hits and two or fewer walks per nine innings during that season.

Pitchers with eight or fewer hits and two or fewer walks per nine innings, season, Cardinals, 1901-2009 (starting with most recent)

Player Year H/9 BB/9 Age Tm G GS CG SH W L W-L% IP H R ER BB SO ERA HR
Chris Carpenter 2009 7.29 1.78 34 STL 28 28 3 1 17 4 .810 192.2 156 49 48 38 144 2.24 7
Chris Carpenter 2006 7.88 1.75 31 STL 32 32 5 3 15 8 .652 221.2 194 81 76 43 184 3.09 21
Chris Carpenter 2005 7.60 1.90 30 STL 33 33 7 4 21 5 .808 241.2 204 82 76 51 213 2.83 18
John Tudor 1985 6.84 1.60 31 STL 36 36 14 10 21 8 .724 275 209 68 59 49 169 1.93 14
Bob Gibson 1968 5.85 1.83 32 STL 34 34 28 13 22 9 .710 304.2 198 49 38 62 268 1.12 11
Ray Washburn 1968 8.00 1.97 30 STL 31 30 8 4 14 8 .636 215 191 67 54 47 124 2.26 9
Harry Brecheen 1948 7.44 1.89 33 STL 33 30 21 7 20 7 .741 233.1 193 62 58 49 149 2.24 6
Kid Nichols 1904 7.61 1.42 34 STL 36 35 35 3 21 13 .618 317 268 97 71 50 134 2.02 3

Some important points to note in Carpenter’s own Cy Young context. Carpenter has allowed fewer hits and walks per nine this season than he did when he took home the Cy Young Award in 2005 and his winning percentage is almost identical.

In a slight negative, Carpenter is the only one among this group to have logged fewer than 200 innings during the season in question.


The final table is an attempt to really drill down on Carpenter’s efficiency this season.

Going back 54 years to the time the Cy Young Award was introduced, 1956, it shows the nine major league pitchers that equaled or bettered Carpenter’s 17 wins in 28 or fewer starts. At least 90 percent of these pitchers’ outings had to be starts to qualify.

It almost goes without saying that all pitchers with 29 or more starts are excluded by definition, leaving a subset consisting of less than full season starters.

Pitchers with 17 or more wins in 28 or fewer starts, season, MLB, 1956-2009

Rk Player Year W/GS % W GS Age Tm Lg G CG SHO GF L W-L% W-L Rk Cy
1 Jimmy Key 1994 0.680 17 25 33 NYY AL 25 1 0 0 4 0.810 T3 No
T2 Greg Maddux 1995 0.679 19 28 29 ATL NL 28 10 3 0 2 0.905 1 Yes*
T2 Sandy Koufax 1964 0.679 19 28 28 LAD NL 29 15 7 1 5 0.792 6 No
4 John Smoltz 1998 0.654 17 26 31 ATL NL 26 2 2 0 3 0.850 2 No
T5 Paul Abbott 2001 0.630 17 27 33 SEA AL 28 1 0 0 4 0.810 T3 No
T5 Jack Morris 1979 0.630 17 27 24 DET AL 27 9 1 0 7 0.708 T8 No
T7 Chris Carpenter 2009 0.607 17 28 34 STL NL 28 3 1 0 4 0.810 T3 TBD
T7 Al Leiter 1998 0.607 17 28 32 NYM NL 28 4 2 0 6 0.739 7 No
T7 Milt Pappas 1972 0.607 17 28 33 CHC NL 29 10 3 0 7 0.708 T8 No
T7 Vern Law 1965 0.607 17 28 35 PIT NL 29 13 4 1 9 0.654 10 No

* 144-game season

The above table is listed in order of efficiency percentage. In other words, the pitchers are ranked by the percentage of their starts in which they received a winning decision. Carpenter’s wins/games started mark of .607 is tied for seventh-best among this group.

The most efficient was the Yankees’ Jimmy Key, who won 17 of his 25 starts back in 1995. In terms of most wins in 28 or fewer starts, the co-leaders at 19 are a pair of Hall of Famers (soon) in Maddux (1995) and Sandy Koufax (1964). No one won more games with 28 or fewer starts that did those two.

In an oddity, 18 must be a haunted number as the other eight of 10 qualifiers each collected 17 wins in their big year, but not a one finished with 18.

Best won-loss percentage is owned by a pair of former Atlanta Braves. Maddux’ 1995 mark of .905 (19-2) is tops among this group. At .810 this season (17-4), Carpenter is tied for third, with now-teammate John Smoltz’ .850 in 1998 also ahead of him.

Unfortunately for Carpenter, the far right column ultimately passes judgment on how important, or should I suggest unimportant, win efficiency in 28 or fewer starts may be to voters. Only one of the previous nine pitchers was awarded the Cy Young following these seasons.

That winner was Maddux. However, even then there is an asterisk attached as the 1995 season was shortened to 144 games due to a strike. Maddux’ 19 victories actually paced the National League that year.

In other words, while these were some efficient pitchers, someone else’s bigger numbers almost always brought home the hardware.

It is impossible to close without acknowledging Carpenter’s place as the leader of the Cardinals pitching staff. Whether or not he takes home the 2009 Cy Young Award, his status was reinforced as he was given the team’s biggest start of the year, the NLDS game one assignment at Dodger Stadium Wednesday night.

Walton on Monday Fantasy Focus show


I will be back again as one of Jeff Erickson’s guests on Monday’s Fantasy Focus show on Blog Talk Radio. The segment can be heard live from 12:30 p.m. – 1:00 p.m. Eastern on October 5th and on demand afterward.

Our focus will be on fantasy baseball, specifically on my 2009 championship in National League Tout Wars, one of the industry’s most prestigious and challenging leagues. It was a fantastic season as I logged the highest point total in the 12-year history of the competition, for which I am extremely proud.

Those devotees of XM Satellite Radio are likely already aware of the long-running Fantasy Focus show. For 2009, it has moved from XM to Blog Talk Radio. Listen live, Monday through Friday at Noon ET, or on demand.

https://www.blogtalkradio.com/RotoWire

Jeff Erickson is the Senior Editor of RotoWire.com and host of Fantasy Focus. His show covers fantasy baseball from a wide variety of angles, talking with the major forces within the industry, and also offers listener interaction. Among the expert leagues in which we both compete is Tout Wars. Jeff in is the American League and I’m in the National.

Cardinals Futures Game history uneven


In an earlier post, we considered number of league all-star game selections as one potential measure of relative yearly farm system strength. One variation introduced was participation in the annual MLB Futures Game, an all-star game of all-stars, so to speak.

Across MLB each summer, two equal rosters of top minor league prospects are selected respectively from the USA and outside the country, with the latter called the World team. The two squads face off in the game, held during MLB All-Star weekend.

Anything over the baseline of one yearly selection can be considered a positive indicator of top prospects at top levels of the organization, which is from where these players are sourced.

In the 11 years since the introduction of the Futures Game in 1999, the St. Louis Cardinals organization has been recognized with 20 invitations. The list includes 17 different players, with three having been named twice. Interestingly, the same 2005 draft class sourced all three multi-year selections, Colby Rasmus, Jaime Garcia and Bryan Anderson (pictured).

After having either one or two representatives each year, the Cardinals organization saw 2008 as their high-water mark to date at five selections. Not coincidentally, all three of the 2005 multi-year invitees were among them. Only three of the five Cardinals were active for the game however, as Garcia became ineligible to play due to his promotion to the major leagues while Rasmus was injured.

In 2009, the Cardinals also had three players in the contest held at Busch Stadium, Daryl Jones, Francisco Samuel and Brett Wallace, with the latter having since been traded away. Same fate for 2008 selection Jess Todd.

Of the 17 different Cardinals named to the game since its inception, only five have not yet reached the majors. All five appeared in the last two years and may still achieve the ultimate level of competition. They are Wallace, Anderson, Jones, Samuel and 2008 selection Fernando Salas.

Of their 13 Futures Game players originally drafted by the Cardinals, only three were compensatory picks, awarded to St. Louis for the loss of free agents to other clubs. The three are denoted by the letter “c” following their draft year and round below. They are Rasmus, Todd, taken in 2007, along with Josh Pearce from the 1999 draft.

In the following table, for informational purposes only, I also listed in parentheses selected Futures Game players then with other organizations who had either been Cardinals property previously or later became Cardinals.

Cardinals Futures Game selections by year, 1999-2009

Year # Name (draft yr-round)
2009 3 Wallace (’08-1) D Jones (’05-3) F Samuel (ND)
2008 5 Anderson (’05-4) Ja Garcia (p)(’05-22) F Salas (ND) Todd (’07-2c) Rasmus (i) (’05-1c)
2007 2 Anderson Rasmus
2006 1 Ja Garcia
2005 1 Lambert (’04-1) (D Barton)
2004 1 B Thompson (’02-16)
2003 1 Narveson (’00-2) (K Greene) (Ring)
2002 1 Journell (’99-4) (Wainwright)
2001 2 Ortega (ND) Pearce (’99-2c) (R Ludwick) (Pineiro)
2000 1 Saturria (ND)
1999 2 Ankiel (’97-2) Kennedy (’97-1) (Ozuna) (Mulder)

ND = non-drafted; i = injured, did not play; p = promoted, did not play

The final table breaks out the Futures Game selections by draft class. “Selections” include players invited more than once, while “Players” denote the number of unique names. The two right columns break out the quantity drafted between regular picks and compensatory ones.

Cardinals Futures Game 1999-2009 selections by draft round, 1997-2008 drafts

Draft Selections Players Regular Comp
2008 1 1 1
2007 1 1 1
2006 0
2005 7 4 3 1
2004 1 1 1
2003 0
2002 1 1 1
2001 0
2000 1 1 1
1999 2 2 1 1
1998 0
1997 2 2 2
Non-drafted 4 4
Total 20 17 10 3

Without the extraordinary class of 2005, Cardinals Futures Game selections probably would have remained at its previous level of one or two per year and may yet return there once that group of players age out of the development pipeline.

Muckdogs to remain in Batavia for third season in 2010


The Rochester Red Wings released the following on Friday:

Batavia, NY – Today, Batavia Muckdogs General Manager Travis Sick announced that the Red Wings will continue to operate the Batavia Muckdogs for the 2010 season.

“We have been in discussions for several weeks regarding next season, and given the improved financials during the 2009 season, we feel encouraged that further improvement is possible.  The Red Wings have decided to continue to support our operation here, and we’re eager to start planning for next year”, Sick said.

While the Batavia Muckdogs operation did sustain a loss, its revenues saw a slight improvement over the prior year.  That, combined with strong efforts to hold expenses down enabled the Ballclub to have a better year.  “We know that even with the more favorable financial results, continued increases in advertising and ticket sales will be necessary for this franchise to be a success over the long term.  We need the community of both businesses and individuals alike to support the Muckdogs through advertising and attendance.  This community is very fortunate to have a professional baseball franchise, and I think and hope that people want it to remain here for a long time to come.  We’ll do everything this off-season to promote opportunities to support the Ballclub, and you can be sure we will be at our offices at Dwyer Stadium working hard to plan for the 2010 season.”

Naomi Silver, Chairman and Chief Operating Officer of the Rochester Red Wings and its affiliates stated “While it has been difficult for communities the size of Batavia to sustain a professional baseball franchise, it doesn’t mean they don’t deserve to have a franchise. The trend in sports has been for bigger cities to buy up small-town clubs, but I think small towns like Batavia need these ballclubs, maybe more than anyplace else.  After all, what makes a community livable if not for wholesome entertainment like a professionally run baseball club?  We just hope to do well enough through the support of our sponsors and fan base to make it work financially.”

Brian Paris, President of the Genesee County Baseball club added, “Batavia is very fortunate to have the Red Wings organization as a partner in our community.  They continue to strive to make baseball in Batavia successful.  The news of their return for a third season in 2010 is a true indication of their high level of integrity and persistence.  I would ask all of our business leaders and citizens within Genesee County and the surrounding areas to support their efforts.  The Batavia Muckdogs are a vital part of our historic and social fabric as a community. It is wonderful to be able to say I’ll see you at the ballpark in June!”

Muckdogs 2010 season tickets are on sale now and can be purchased at Dwyer Stadium or by calling (585)343-5454.

Don’t blame McClellan for blowing Wainwright’s 20th win


For a manager that prides himself on putting his players in a position to win, St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa did just the opposite on Friday night. It cost Adam Wainwright his 20th victory of the season and certainly some Cy Young Award votes.

Coming off a 130-pitch outing in his last start and breezing through the mandatory five innings with a six-run lead, Wainwright’s first-ever 20-win season seemed assured.

Just the day before in a similar situation, La Russa took Chris Carpenter out after five innings with a nine-run lead in Cincinnati. The bullpen finished the final four innings to preserve Carp’s 17th win.

For reasons only La Russa knows, he kept Wainwright in for the sixth despite the 6-0 score. My guess is that he wanted Wainwright to put an exclamation point on his Cy Young candidacy in his final regular season start.

Back-to-back doubles with two out put visiting Milwaukee on the board, yet after ducking primary Brewers power threat Prince Fielder with an intentional-unintentional walk, Wainwright reached back to fan Mike Cameron to escape with only one run in.

Again, for reasons only La Russa knows, he had Wainwright bat in the bottom of the sixth and return to the mound for the seventh inning despite the 6-1 score. It was obvious his starter had struggled in the previous frame, but he asked Wainwright, already the NL leader in innings pitched, to get three more outs. He would get none.

After yielding a pair of singles, Wainwright exited the game in favor of reliever Kyle McClellan. Still all smiles, Wainwright took a curtain call from the cheering Cardinals faithful.

From there, it got downright ugly. Before McClellan was done, Wainwright’s smile was gone along with his 20th win and so was the Cardinals’ entire five-run lead.

After a walk and a strikeout, the first inherited run scored on a wild pitch. The second came home on a single, adding two runs to Wainwright’s ERA. Though he was getting pitches up and fooling no one, McClellan was left in the game. The third consecutive Milwaukee single plated the first run charged to McClellan to cut the Cardinals lead to two.

For reasons only La Russa knows, he kept McClellan in the game for more punishment. A double by number three hitter Ryan Braun plated two more, erasing the Cardinals lead and throwing Wainwright’s 20th win right out the window.

Only then did McClellan depart with two on and the score tied. After Trever Miller secured the second out, Jason Motte wild-pitched the lead run home. Amazingly, the Cardinals were suddenly down 7-6. Busch Stadium was transformed into a morgue.

The wheels fell completely off as five more Milwaukee runs came home, making the final score 12-6. Twelve unanswered runs for the Brewers in the Cardinals’ house, doubling up the score and untucking their jerseys, is inexcusable.

It would be easy to chastise McClellan for the rough outing, as five of his six batters faced reached base and four of them scored. Yet does anyone doubt that he was trying his hardest?

Just as La Russa and pitching coach Dave Duncan rode Wainwright too long, they compounded the problem by repeating their error with the floundering McClellan. With an expanded roster, there were plenty of fresh arms available.

During his earlier years in St. Louis, I was often critical of La Russa for keeping his starters in too long in appearing to chase individual goals, usually starters’ wins. In all fairness, I have not seen it very often in the last few seasons – until Friday, that is.

Now, everyone on the entire Cardinals team must feel terrible at the worst possible time as the club is just five days away from game one of the NLDS.

Wainwright lost his 20th and maybe his Cy Young Award. McClellan had his worst outing of the season and a blown save. Motte, Dennys Reyes, Mitchell Boggs and even the defense picked up the bad karma.

La Russa is a legitimate contender for the 2009 Manager of the Year Award for good reason, demonstrated over 159 games. Unfortunately, game number 160 meant more than many of the previous ones and this time, he pushed all the wrong buttons.

As a result, what should have been a night of celebration turned into a horror show.

Wainwright’s rare triple milestone performance


My friend Bill Gilbert religiously tracks the top hitters and pitchers across MLB every season in the Triple Crown categories. There has not been a true Triple Crown winner in the American League since Boston’s Carl Yastrzemski in 1967 and in the Senior Circuit for 73 years, since former Cardinal great Joe “Ducky” Medwick accomplished the feat in 1937.

As a measure of annual individual excellence short of the actual Triple Crown, Bill tracks what he has labeled “Triple Milestones”. They are predefined thresholds in the six Triple Crown categories, three for hitters and three more for hurlers in an unofficial pitching version. When a player achieves all three, he is deemed to be having a pretty darned good season.

Over time, MLB hitters have done very well in achieving their milestones of a .300 average, 30 home runs and 100 RBI. For example, Albert Pujols is among four players already there in 2009 with three others close. Prior to this season, the hitting mark had been reached 113 times this decade.

It is a much different story on the pitching side, however. In this age of five-man rotations, strict pitch counts and specialization, 20-game winners have become few and far between. Add to that an ERA under three and 200 strikeouts makes achieving the pitching triple milestones a very tall order.

Bill tipped me off that if Adam Wainwright earns a win in his final start this Friday, he will become the first National League pitcher to have 20 wins, 200 strikeouts and an ERA under 3.00 since his teammate Chris Carpenter did it during his Cy Young Award-winning campaign in 2005.

In fact, with a quick query using the invaluable Complete Baseball Encyclopedia, I learned that Wainwright’s pitching Triple Milestone will be just the ninth across MLB this decade, occurring at the rate of about one per year on average.

While Roy Halladay of Toronto did it last year, four of the prior eight triple milestones since 2000 occurred in 2001 and 2002. Randy Johnson was the only pitcher to do it twice.

In the table below, Wainwright’s numbers are a projection, assuming he hits his season average of six strikeouts in his final start, holds his ERA flat and of course, gets that twentieth win.

I further assigned each of the stats a relative ranking from one (best) to nine (worst). The lowest total of the three represents the best balanced Triple Milestone season this decade.

ERA 3.00 or less, wins 20 or more, strikeouts 200 or more, MLB season, 2000-2009

Rank Year Cy ERA Rank Wins Rank SO Rank Total
1 Randy Johnson 2002 yes 2.32 2 24 1 334 2 5
2 Randy Johnson 2001 yes 2.49 3 21 4 372 1 8
3 Pedro Martinez 2002 no 2.26 1 20 7 239 5 13
4 Curt Schilling 2001 no 2.98 9 22 2 293 3 14
5 Johan Santana 2004 yes 2.61 5 20 7 265 4 16
6 Chris Carpenter 2005 yes 2.83 7 21 4 213 6 17
7 Adam Wainwright* 2009 TBD 2.58 4 20 7 210 7 18
8 Esteban Loaiza 2003 no 2.90 8 21 4 207 8 20
9 Roy Halladay 2008 no 2.78 6 20 7 206 9 22

* projected

Wainwright’s 2009 season is projected to be seventh-best this decade, right behind Carpenter in 2005 at number six. Johnson’s two dominating seasons in 2001 and 2002 were the best of the best.

Oh yes, I also noted which pitchers took home the Cy Young Award for their respective Triple Milestone seasons.

Four made it while four did not, with Wainwright to tip the balance in one direction or the other. (Pedro Martinez and Halladay had previously each taken home the hardware as well, making a total of six former Cy Young Award winners among the eight.)

Update: The Cardinals manager and bullpen let Wainwright down on Friday. The pitcher ends with 19 wins, 212 strikeouts and a 2.63 ERA.

Carpenter’s record-setting grand slam and six RBI


As St. Louis Cardinals fans may already know, Chris Carpenter pitched and hit his team to a slump-breaking 13-0 win over Cincinnati on Thursday afternoon. While his pitching was fantastic, three hits and a walk with six strikeouts over five shutout innings, the right-handed veteran also personally jump-started his club’s stalling offense.

Batting from the traditional number nine spot in Tony La Russa’s lineup, Carpenter stepped to the plate in the top of the second inning. With one out and one in and the game’s outcome clearly in doubt, the bases were loaded against his former teammate Kip Wells. That is, they were until Carpenter cleared the bases with a grand slam over the left field wall.

In the fifth with two runners on, Carp again emptied the bases with a double down the right field line off a good hitting pitcher himself, Micah Owings, for his fifth and sixth RBI of the afternoon. After collecting three more outs in the bottom of the frame, and with a nine-run lead, his day was done.

Ironically, Carpenter missed five weeks earlier this season due to an oblique injury suffered while taking a swing at the plate. The resulting disabled list stint could have cost the 34-year-old what may be one of his final chances to win a second Cy Young Award.

With his six RBI, Carpenter set a St. Louis single-game record for a pitcher since at least 1954, passing Hall of Famer Bob Gibson. At the age of 37, Gibby collected five during the first game of a July, 1973 double-header, four having come via a grand slam. He also had three other four-RBI games, more than any Cardinals pitcher. In only one of the 14 record games did the Cardinals lose, with Rick Wise on the mound in 1973

Most RBI by a pitcher, game, Cardinals 1954-2009

# Hitter Date Opp Reslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI
1 Chris Carpenter 10/1/2009 @CIN W 13-0 3 3 1 2 1 0 1 6
2 Bob Gibson 1973-07-26(1) NYM W 13-1 5 5 1 2 0 0 1 5
3 Woody Williams 6/5/2003 TOR W 13-5 4 4 0 1 0 1 0 4
4 Kent Mercker 9/2/1998 @FLA W 14-4 3 3 1 1 0 0 1 4
5 Donovan Osborne 9/7/1996 SDP W 8-3 3 3 1 1 0 0 1 4
6 Bob Forsch 8/10/1986 PIT W 5-4 3 3 1 1 0 0 1 4
7 Ray Burris 5/24/1986 ATL W 9-5 3 3 0 2 1 0 0 4
8 Tim Conroy 5/8/1986 SDP W 13-3 5 3 1 2 1 0 0 4
9 Joaquin Andujar 5/15/1984 ATL W 9-1 4 3 1 1 0 0 1 4
10 Bob Gibson 9/27/1974 @CHC W 10-4 3 2 0 1 1 0 0 4
11 Rick Wise 8/21/1973 @ATL L 7-11 3 3 1 1 0 0 1 4
12 Bob Gibson 9/29/1965 @SFG W 8-6 4 4 3 3 0 0 1 4
13 Bob Gibson 8/26/1961 SFG W 8-5 4 2 0 1 1 0 0 4
14 Tom Poholsky 5/20/1954 @PIT W 17-4 5 3 1 3 0 0 0 4

On Thursday, Carpenter also tied four others for the third-most RBI by an MLB pitcher in a game in at least the last 55 years. Ironically, the last one to do it prior to Carp was Owings. Former Atlanta pitcher Tony Cloninger, who later finished his career with St. Louis, holds the major league record with nine. Interestingly, in all seven record-breaking games, the winning team’s offense scored in double-digits.

Most RBI by a pitcher, game, MLB, 1954-2009

Rk Hitter Date Tm Opp Reslt PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI
1 Tony Cloninger 7/3/1966 ATL @SFG W 17-3 5 5 2 3 0 0 2 9
2 Robert Person 6/2/2002 PHI MON W 18-3 4 3 3 2 0 0 2 7
T3 Chris Carpenter 10/1/2009 STL @CIN W 13-0 3 3 1 2 1 0 1 6
T3 Micah Owings 8/18/2007 ARI @ATL W 12-6 5 5 4 4 1 0 2 6
T3 Blue Moon Odom 1969-05-04(2) OAK SEP W 11-7 3 3 1 3 1 0 1 6
T3 Dave Giusti 8/21/1966 HOU CIN W 11-0 4 4 0 2 2 0 0 6
T3 Babe Birrer 7/19/1955 DET BAL W 12-4 2 2 2 2 0 0 2 6

Carp’s crowning blow, the grand slam, was the seventh by a Cardinals pitcher since at least 1954 and the first since Kent Mercker did it in September, 1998. In fact, the last three grand slams by a Cardinals pitcher occurred during the final month-plus of the season.

Nothing against the opposing pitchers who yielded the grannies, but no Hall of Famers are among the victims. In a final factoid, I found it interesting that not a one of the seven occurred when the Cardinals were behind.

Grand slams by a pitcher, Cardinals, 1954-2009

Date Batter Opp Pitcher Score Inn Out RBI
10/1/2009 Chris Carpenter @CIN Kip Wells ahead 2-0 t 2 1 4
9/2/1998 Kent Mercker @FLA Jesus Sanchez ahead 3-0 t 4 0 4
9/7/1996 Donovan Osborne SDP Andy Ashby tied 1-1 b 5 1 4
8/10/1986 Bob Forsch PIT Mike Bielecki ahead 1-0 b 5 0 4
5/15/1984 Joaquin Andujar ATL Jeff Dedmon ahead 5-1 b 8 2 4
1973-07-26(1) Bob Gibson NYM John Strohmayer ahead 6-1 b 5 0 4
8/21/1973 Rick Wise @ATL Roric Harrison ahead 3-0 t 3 2 4

Thanks to Tom Orf for quickly pulling the data tables.

Waino, Carp and pray for the tarp


John Smoltz was tattooed by Cincinnati Wednesday night apparently due to non-rubbed up baseballs, and the St. Louis Cardinals offense was allegedly stymied because of pine-tarred offerings served up by Reds starter Bronson Arroyo.

Whatever the reason, it was the third consecutive subpar outing from the “other” starters, those not named Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright. Number three starter Joel Pineiro reverted to leaving his pitches up and yielded four home runs on Tuesday. The other back-of-the-rotation competitor, Kyle Lohse, has also been shaky since his return from the disabled list, having allowed 11 runs in his last 14 1/3 innings.

The following may have to become the post-season mantra for the Cardinals and their fans:

“Waino, Carp and pray for the tarp…”

Despite an unusual pre-game hitters meeting led by Tony La Russa, Hal McRae and Mike Aldrete, the Cardinals slumping offense managed only one run against Arroyo after plating just two the night before.

Arroyo has had a Jeckyll and Hyde season unlike most any in recent history. As of July 9, the veteran had been battered all season long, carrying a 5.85 ERA. He had allowed 16 runs in his most recent 14 innings. After a cortisone shot to address carpal tunnel, his second of the year, Arroyo went off on a tear. The right-hander posted quality starts in 15 of his 16 outings since, knocking two full runs off his ERA.

Now that Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan has complained about Arroyo and the baseballs used, is the pitcher’s record tainted?

Certainly having pine tar on his cap and going to it before every pitch as Duncan alleged would place Arroyo among the charter members of the Kenny Rogers School of Pitching.

Yet Duncan and La Russa remained silent Wednesday as their offense flailed and Smoltz boiled over in frustration. One reason coaches don’t want to engage in this “showmanship” is because no one is above suspicion.

Before Cardinals fans get too up in arms, remember it cuts both ways. Former St. Louis reliever Julian Tavarez fired his cap into the stands to try to lose the evidence after getting caught loading up a few years back. Tavarez received a ten-game suspension for his hijinks.

Now, let’s discuss the Cincinnati baseballs and the implication they were doctored to Arroyo’s specifications. Since both pitchers have to use them, it would be logical to assume that other opposing pitchers besides Smoltz may have struggled at Great American Ballpark on the days they opposed Arroyo.

I took a look back at the composite records of the visiting pitchers in Arroyo’s eight home starts since his July 10 turnaround. Over those entire eight games, the enemy pitchers posted an aggregate ERA of just 3.13 using the Arroyo balls. This microscopic ERA was put up despite having to play on the road in that bandbox of a ballpark in the Queen City.

Opposing starters that excelled at GAB on with “Arroyoballs” include Ricky Nolasco, Clayton Kershaw, Barry Zito and Kevin Correia. Needless to say, John Smoltz is not among them, as his Wednesday ERA was 13.50.

Just maybe it isn’t the baseballs at all.

Late last night on MLB Network, former Brewers pitcher Dan Plesac made some very different observations about Smoltz’ messy evening. Plesac noted Smoltz was relying almost exclusively on his breaking pitches, probably because his fastball was only topping out in the mid-80’s. He went on to suggest Smoltz was running on fumes and may be hiding an injury.

It seems with the Cardinals on top of the NL hunt, everyone is gunning for them. Last weekend, it was the bullpen mound in Colorado. This week, it is the baseballs in Cincy.

Maybe this team should look in the mirror instead.

What this Cardinals club needs to do more than anything is dig in and get their act ready for October, because if they don’t make a run deep into the playoffs, the failure will rest squarely on the collective shoulders of La Russa and his players.

Repeat after me, “Waino, Carp and pray for the tarp…”

Thursday live blogging on FOX Sports Midwest


I am returning as a panelist for FOX Sports Midwest’s weekly live blog session to be held throughout Thursday’s Cardinals-Reds game. Join in the discussion with me and the galaxy of FSM personalities.

You can participate via FOX Sports Midwest’s website or once the event begins, you can enter your comments and questions right here in the “CoveritLive” area below.

NL ERA leader Chris Carpenter faces former Cardinal Kip Wells as the Cards try to salvage one game of their three-game series in Cincinnati.

Note the early start. Thursday’s first pitch is scheduled for 11:35 a.m. Central.

Six years of Cardinals minor league all-stars


Recent posts comparing the St. Louis Cardinals minor league won-loss records and all-stars by level over the last two years have generated a lot of interest and discussion both on and off the blog.

A follow-on action I outlined was to document the all-star selections over a longer period of time, thereby putting 2008 and 2009 into clearer perspective. In doing so, 2004 was about as far back as I could go to be sure of having an apples-to-apples comparison considering franchise and league changes.

This window allows a view of three seasons prior to Jeff Luhnow ascending to the farm director’s role, which occurred in September, 2006, and three after. He had assumed full responsibility for the Cardinals drafts starting in 2005.

The top six primary farm clubs are included in the following analysis.

Cardinals minor league all-stars, 2004-2009

All-Stars 2009 2008 2007 2006 2005 2004
Triple-A 1 1 2 1 3 2
Double-A 13 11 11 4 7 5
A-Advanced 3 7 8 5 2 7
A 1 3 6 8 6 6
Short-season A 3 6 3 3 5 1
Short-season R 3 1 0 1 0 2
24 29 30 22 23 23

As the data indicates, the total level of all-stars was basically constant from 2004 through 2006. However, looking deeper, one can see the beginnings of growth in the short-season A New York-Penn League in 2005. That also marked the year considered by many to have been the first turnaround draft for the system.

In 2006, the yearly increases were taking root in A and A-Advanced and by 2007, the bulge arrived at Double-A along with continued growth at A-Advanced. The huge expansion in total all-stars that occurred in 2007 was almost totally fueled by the Double-A success.

Key names from the 2005 draft that helped drive the changes in the system in 2006 and 2007 were Colby Rasmus (first round), Bryan Anderson (fourth round) and Jaime Garcia (22nd round). All three were all-stars in the 2006 Midwest League and in the Double-A Texas League the following season.

In terms of total all-stars and by-level distribution, 2008 remained consistent with the high-water point in 2007.

The second wave of multi-year all-stars that helped sustain that level, a year behind the aforementioned group, include 2006 draftees Allen Craig (pictured – eighth round) and Luke Gregerson (28nd round). Both were A-Advanced all-stars in 2007 and Double-A stars in 2008.

This past summer’s overall decline in all-stars represented a return to the previous 2004-2006 level. The quantity of all-stars at the highest levels of the system was flat in 2009 compared to 2008, while there was a considerable drop at the class A levels. Players at those levels are younger, sourced from the most recent drafts.

Unless there is a significant turnaround in the quantity of 2010 all-stars, my feeling is that the 2007-2008 growth in total all-stars represented a spike from the strong 2005 draft and to a lesser extent 2006 that could not be sustained by later classes of Cardinals draftees.

Could a World Series win drive La Russa and Duncan out?


Some of us are in the major league clubhouse periodically during the season, while beat writers are among those there every single day. Yet absolutely no one better understands what is going on within a team than its own members.

Problem is they can’t disclose what is really going on behind the scenes or they would be ostracized or perhaps even put out of a job before they knew what hit them. It would be a capital sin to break the silence about the inner workings of the team.

That hasn’t stopped most of us that watch the St. Louis Cardinals from speculating publicly or at least privately about the future of the team’s manager and pitching coach, Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan. Neither is under contract for 2010 and beyond.

A recent Post-Dispatch article went into considerable detail about the new, shiny, improved relationship between La Russa and his boss, general manager John Mozeliak. The unwritten implication is that a continuation of the relationship into the future seems more likely than perhaps previously.

No such articles have been written about Duncan lately, as fully understanding how deep and long-lasting his wounds are over the treatment of his son Chris by the club and its fans as well as other smoldering factors should run into the off-season.

Yet rather than media speculation, one member of that very clubhouse day in and day out during much of 2008 and all of 2009 until late June has offered his opinion.

Former Cardinals pitcher Chris Perez offered his articulate thoughts to FOXSports.com. Traded to Cleveland in the Mark DeRosa deal, the reliever says he would not be surprised if both La Russa and Duncan leave St. Louis for good after the season.

“I had a feeling during spring training that this might be their last go-around, just the way they were interacting,” said Perez. “They seemed to be more happy, excited to be there, like, ‘It’s our last go-around. Let’s have a great year.’ I kind of got that feeling from both of them.


“They’ve been at it a long time. Thirty years is a long time to be away from your family, always on the road. It’s a grind. Always competing. Always expecting to win. Having expectations with your teams. I could see them both leaving, especially if they win (the World Series). I think they’d both like to go out on top.”

Perez also noted the Chris Duncan situation could make it more likely his father decides not to return to St. Louis.


Could Perez be wrong? Of course, he could. On the other hand, he is the most credible source yet to weigh in on the situation publicly. That caught my attention.