All posts by Brian Walton

Brian Walton runs The Cardinal Nation, covering the St. Louis Cardinals and minor league system.

St. Louis returns to Springfield for spring exhibition

The St. Louis Cardinals will be taking on their Double-A club in Springfield, MO on March 29.

Back on October 4, when I highlighted the tentative 2011 Spring Training Schedule for the St. Louis Cardinals, I noted the following:

“There may be several end of spring exhibitions added later as the Cardinals travel north, perhaps with minor league clubs. As of now, however, the Cards are off between their final Florida contest on Monday, March 28 and the regular season opener against San Diego at Busch Stadium on Thursday, March 31.”

The first update to that initial plan has been announced by the Springfield Cardinals. St. Louis will return to the southwest Missouri city to take on their Double-A affiliate on Tuesday, March 29 at 7:07 P.M, the minor league club announced in a Tuesday press release.

The “07” start time will be standard for Springfield in 2010 as they celebrate their seventh season of existence in the Texas League. The team is owned by their St. Louis parent.

St. Louis previously visited Springfield for pairs of end-of-spring exhibitions in 2005 and 2008, seasons one and four, however the 2011 match-up will be a single game only.

The only way to guarantee a seat to the March 29 game is by purchasing 2011 Springfield Cardinals season tickets, now on sale by contacting (417) 863-0395. Single-game tickets, including ones for the exhibition game, are expected to go on sale in late February or early March, reports the Springfield News-Leader. The Cardinals’ complete regular-season schedule can be viewed here.

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Has Pujols’ negotiating stance changed?

St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols now says he wants to get a new contract done before the 2011 season begins.

Albert Pujols' 400th home run, 08/26/10 (Getty Images/Greg Fiume)Having been in Arizona watching prospects for the last week meant I did not remain current on all the Twittery regarding the St. Louis Cardinals. In catching up on Monday morning, a late-week exchange between MLB Cardinals beat writer Matthew Leach and several other media members regarding Albert Pujols’ public remarks caught my eye.

The flashpoint was Pujols’ Dominican Republic interview last Thursday.

There was at least one time in the past when Pujols’ translated remarks from a similar interview were disputed by the player and/or his representatives. That was in 2006 when Pujols was widely quoted as saying the league’s Most Valuable Player should come from a playoff team, remarks considered to have been critical of the Phillies’ Ryan Howard.

As such, Leach checked with the Pujols camp about the new comments from Thursday and gained assurance that the first baseman’s words were accurate.

Among Pujols’ comments:

“I hope that before the season begins I get an extension.”

Pujols said he wants to spend the rest of his career with the Cardinals, “but that is something that I cannot control.”

Regarding the timeline, Leach stated at least twice that he considers this “a change from his (Pujols’) tone last winter, which essentially was, ‘When and if it happens, that’s cool.’”

Though I would call it more a refinement in tactic rather than a change in tone, Leach makes a good point.

Prior to this past week, Pujols had granted a number of interviews over time during which he consistently expressed a desire to be a career-long Cardinal. At least once, during January’s Winter Warm-Up, Pujols even mentioned the possibility of a “discount,” but specific time frames had been avoided – with one exception.

Once the 2009-10 off-season ended and spring training began, Pujols shut off all contract discussion, internally and especially externally. This approach makes a lot of sense, especially for a player whose intensity and focus on the game is well-documented.

Fast forwarding to today, the “discount” concept could be history and Pujols’ recent words were intended to put pressure on the Cardinals to come forward with a specific offer. Even if so, the end result would be good for everyone.

The sooner the specifics can be put on the table and a deal hammered out between the player and the organization, the better. And if the two sides can’t see eye-to-eye, they have more time to prepare for the life after, whatever that might entail.

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Sparky Anderson’s Days as a Cardinal

A quick look back at the brief time one of baseball’s greatest managers spent in the St. Louis Cardinals organization.

Sparky Anderson (St. Petersburg, 1966)

With the untimely passing of Hall of Fame manager Sparky Anderson, one of two men to have won World Series titles in both leagues, I had planned to write about his period as a minor league manager in the St. Louis Cardinals organization during the 1960’s.

After one prior year of managing, Anderson really cut his managerial teeth starting at the age of 33 under then-Cardinals general manager Bob Howsam and after three years, followed Howsam to the Cincinnati organization. As they say, the rest is history.

Sparky had taken over the Rock Hill Cardinals of the Western Carolinas League in 1965, moved to St. Petersburg of the Florida State League the next season and ended his time in the system with Modesto of the California League in 1967. The three clubs finished with an aggregate .575 winning mark.

Like I said, I had planned to dig into Anderson’s tenure, but in researching it, I found a great article by Mark Tomasik of TCPalm.com. That piece, with some excellent stories, stands on its own as an excellent resource.

Make sure you check out the full view of the 1966 photo of Sparky at the age of 34. He always seemed to look the same. It is hard to believe he is gone. Rest in peace!

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Pujols’ odds of signing slipping under 50 percent?

Could the St. Louis Cardinals chances of keeping Albert Pujols beyond 2011 be heading south?

Albert Pujols (KSDK)During a Friday segment on KTRS 550 radio, the Post-Dispatch’s Joe Strauss told John Marecek that he thinks the chance that Albert Pujols will sign an extension with the St. Louis Cardinals could soon be less than 50 percent.

Strauss said he would have originally put Pujols’ odds of remaining with St. Louis beyond the 2011 season at 75 percent, but perceives the chances are decreasing daily. Strauss did not state the reason for the new trajectory.

As recently as Thursday, in a Dominican Republic interview, Pujols reaffirmed his desire to remain a Cardinal for the remainder of his career, keeping pressure on the organization to declare their hand regarding years and money to be offered.

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Are Titanium necklaces valuable?

Do the colorful necklaces worn by professional athletes meet their manufacturer’s claims?

In Men’s Fitness magazine, I came across an interesting article entitled “Are Baseball Necklaces Bogus?” The piece describes the colorful titanium-based necklaces seemingly sported by every player in the game. The manufacturer, Phiten, a Chinese company, states the benefits include energy boost, quicker injury recovery and relief of muscle aches.

From their product catalog:

“Our products work with your body’s energy system, regulating and balancing the energy flow of all the internal structures. Most times people will reach for chemical and medical solutions to block out physical discomfort. Phiten offers a way to alleviate discomfort, enjoy a speedy recovery or even counteract fatigue in a unique, 100% non-medicated way.”

PhitenWhile in New York with the Cardinals at Citi Field this past summer, a very athletic woman representing Phiten was working her way through the clubhouse with brochures and cards along with sample necklaces and wrist bands. While I certainly don’t look like I could be confused for uniform personnel, I was issued a set as well (see photo of my still-unused items). Soon, clubhouse attendants and ballboys alike were attired in the officially MLB-licensed team-colored and logoed Phiten products.

In their brochure, Phiten touts sponsorships from Josh Beckett, Brandon Webb, Justin Morneau, Tim Lincecum, Joba Chamberlain and Justin Verlander, among athletes from other sports.

Their product lines are vast, from Body Supports, to Titanium discs, tape and strips, to massage lotion, and of course, a wide variety of necklaces and bracelets.

What’s the catch?

Again, from Men’s Fitness:

“No scientific evidence exists to back up Phiten’s claims, and the “aqua-titanium” technology the company uses to dissolve titanium into water isn’t approved by the U.S. Food and Drug Administration.”

No one seems to know whether these items work or if are they just a fad-driven movement fueled by superstitious athletes.

Any opinions out there?

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Cardinals “dry powder”: Use it or lose it?

Is it better for a team to spend its entire payroll budget early or hold some in reserve?

In a recent Post-Dispatch article, some of the subjects allegedly discussed during the St. Louis Cardinals’ post-season organizational meetings were disclosed.

One item on the table was the concept of “dry powder,” holding financial reserves for mid-season trades to bolster the club down the stretch.

Matt Holliday and Mark DeRosa (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)Manager Tony La Russa is reportedly in favor of a change in approach, instead wanting to deploy the funds during the prior off-season, rather than waiting to do so during the summer. The article states there was only one major “dry powder” move in the last four years, the acquisition of Matt Holliday, overlooking the earlier Mark DeRosa trade.

Another argument cited in support of La Russa’s position was the early-season injuries to Brad Penny and Kyle Lohse, which proved to be difficult to diagnose in terms of a return time for each. It took the team from May until the end of July, when Jake Westbrook was acquired, to address the need externally. Even then, the deal was apparently neutral financially, so it would seem no powder was deployed. Other in-season additions were minimum-salaried scrap-heapers like Randy Winn, Jeff Suppan and Mike MacDougal.

I’ve been thinking about this, seeing benefits in each approach.

  • Positive for non-dry powder: Set roster early with the best team possible and run with it.
  • Negative for non-dry powder: No money to address emerging needs later.
  • Negative for dry powder: May wait for help that never comes or be unable to find the right players.
  • Positive for dry powder: It can generate in-season momentum, if used.

Let me explain my last point, one that was not made in the Post-Dispatch article. If the team plays well enough to contend, making a notable July addition provides momentum in at least two ways.

During the heat of the summer, it reinforces to the team that ownership is willing to step up to help them and to their fans that they are behind the club. It also puts pressure on their competitors to respond in kind and if they don’t, it might generate internal feelings of doubt within the enemy camp.

For those reasons, I still favor keeping some flexibility to make moves during the season.

How do you see it?

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Elias twist: Lopez tops Cardinals’ free agents

The top-ranked free agent from the St. Louis Cardinals has already been released.

Each year around Halloween, the Elias Rankings are released for all MLB players. So far, the most important subset of these numbers, the ones for eligible free agents, has surfaced. Translated to an alphabetic value, they are an important component of free agent compensation. The rankings are derived from two years worth of statistical data and are specific to groups of positions.

Only Type A and B free agents (if signed before the arbitration offer date or if offered arbitration) would require a compensatory pick and only Type A’s cause a draft selection to move from one team to another.

There is no suspense whatsoever for the St. Louis Cardinals in this year’s process.

The club has nine free agents: RHP Jake Westbrook, RHP Brad Penny, 3B Pedro Feliz, LHP Dennys Reyes, RHP Mike MacDougal, OF Randy Winn, INF Aaron Miles, RHP Jeff Suppan and C Jason LaRue. The latter has already stated his intent to retire.

Felipe Lopez (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)In a major statement about the productivity of this group of nine over the last two seasons, not a single one of them are Types A or B, meaning they can sign anywhere without compensation.

Westbrook remains the most likely of the group to be asked back for 2011, though it is unclear if his terms will align with the Cardinals wants. He was neither Type A nor B as the result of having missed the entire 2009 season.

There is one other player of note, the only ranked free agent that played for the 2010 Cardinals, infielder Felipe Lopez (pictured). Ironically, the Type B free agent was released late in the year due to some combination of misbehavior and substandard play and re-signed with Boston.

To see Elias Rankings of other clubs’ Type A and B free agents as potential signing targets for the Cardinals, click here. I will share the complete list of all free agents and all ranked players as soon as I can locate it.

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New Rasmania over for-sale signs unwarranted

Colby Rasmus (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)Word that St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus is selling his St. Louis-area home fans trade speculation flames for some.

On the heels of the reported trade interest of the Chicago White Sox in St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus which broke on Sunday is the news that Rasmus has put his St. Louis-area house on the market.

During the Bernie Miklasz radio show on Monday, the Post-Dispatch’s Cardinals beat writer Joe Strauss broke the story as part of a conversation about Rasmus being more available than the Cards are admitting. The pair agreed it would take a substantial offer to make any deal a reality.

“My information is that his house is up for sale in the West County and he is getting ready to move back to Alabama,” Strauss told Miklasz on air.

Some in the Cardinals blogosphere quickly gobbled up Strauss’ juicy tidbit and assumed the worst.

Just as so much of what has previously been written and said on this subject, there is both accuracy and misdirection in what Strauss said.

Right here at The Cardinal Nation Blog on Monday evening, Tony Rasmus, Colby’s father, confirmed his son’s property is in fact on the market.

However, any implication of that being a signal that the talented centerfielder is packing for a trade is off base, according to Tony Rasmus.

Colby will be looking to acquire a new property that will allow him to have an on-site batting cage, a feature his current area home does not allow due to space limitations, explained the elder Rasmus, known on this blog and at The Cardinal Nation forum as “RCWarrior.”

When asked to clarify if his son’s new place will be located in the St. Louis area, RCWarrior said this, with a smiley face following:

“Unless he wants a long commute next year, he’s (sic) better find something close to Busch.”

Further, he explained the younger Rasmus already has a residence in his native Alabama as well. Returning there, as Colby did at the conclusion of the season, is not unusual during the winter months.

As additional explanation, it is worth recalling that father and son had been doing one-on-one cage work during the 2010 season at a local St. Louis hitting facility. As this gained visibility externally, an unnamed individual contacted the proprietor, who cut off their access without warning or explanation, according to Tony Rasmus, who then returned to Alabama.

While attempts to influence public opinion about this player’s situation are hardly new coming from a number of parties, I have no reason to doubt Tony Rasmus’ explanation and certainly recommend against any overreaction based on partial information.

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Tejada is far from a no-brainer for the Cardinals

There is a lot of buzz about soon-to-be free agent infielder Miguel Tejada possibly heading to St. Louis. No one is talking about a major fly in the ointment, however.

As the hot stove league heats up, Phil Rogers of the Chicago Tribune noted the following about the St. Louis Cardinals in a “Baseball Whispers” article on Sunday.

“Miguel Tejada is on their radar as they look to improve at two of three spots among second, short and third.”

This name has been floated in conjunction with the Cardinals a number of times over the years, including at the July trade deadline. Buoyed by the expected return of David Freese, the Cardinals apparently did not make Baltimore an offer for Tejada. The 36-year-old was dealt to the San Diego Padres instead in return for a prospect.

Miguel Tejada (AP Photo/Eric Risberg)Now, with a chance to upgrade over inadequate fill-in Pedro Feliz, the Cardinals may be looking at Tejada again. Even before Rogers’ comment, the name has come up on the personal wish list of Post-Dispatch Cardinals beat writer Joe Strauss in recent weeks.

Tejada does not come without warts, including past issues with age falsification and PED allegations. The biggest challenge may be the decline in stats as his age advances. His .692 OPS in 2010 was his worst as an MLB full-time starter, a stretch that began in 1999.

As his defensive range has declined, Tejada spent more time at third base than his natural shortstop position this past season. The Cardinals are clearly looking for short-term third base insurance for oft-injured Freese while prospects such as Zack Cox and Matt Carpenter work their way toward St. Louis. At short, Tejada could be an offensive pairing with defensive stalwart Brendan Ryan.

Though the right-handed hitting Tejada has never appeared at second base as a major leaguer, I can’t help but wonder if he could become proficient at that position as well. It is a late-career move already made by former Cardinals shortstop David Eckstein, Tejada’s teammate in San Diego. This would give the 2011 Cardinals even more flexibility.

Even if all three incumbent infielders were to recover to have standout seasons in 2011, there should be enough at-bats to satisfy Tejada backing up all of them.

The more I think about it, from a fit perspective, I can see why the addition of Tejada would suit the Cardinals well.

Before we march off fat, dumb and happy into the sunset, here is the rub, though, and it is a major one.

Earlier, those in the game of trying to reverse-engineer the Elias Rankings projected Tejada as a Type B free agent. If so, a signing club would not forfeit a draft pick.

That did not turn out to be the case, however. In the real Elias Rankings released last week, Tejada has been classified as a Type A free agent, his ranking perhaps buoyed by having played better with San Diego than with the Orioles. In fact, because of his fit with his new club, some reports have the Padres interested in retaining Tejada for 2011.

If the Cardinals were to move quickly to try to sign Tejada before San Diego has to make the decision whether or not to offer him arbitration, the Cards would automatically forfeit their first-round draft pick next June, tentatively #22 overall.

This prohibitive price from the Cardinals’ perspective would be the same if the Padres eventually do offer arbitration to Tejada and he declines. If the Padres offer arbitration and Tejada accepts, he is off the market. The offer decision date for clubs is November 23.

The Cardinals may have to wait until at least November 30, the date by which players must accept or decline offers of arbitration, to make a formal move on Tejada, while hoping the Padres pass on the opportunity to grab a pair of extra early picks by not offering him.

Further, the Cardinals have no Type A free agents of their own that might be used to replace their first-round pick that would be lost in signing Tejada. With an already-thin group of projected high ceiling prospects, the Cardinals would be especially ill-advised to give up their top draft pick to sign an aging infielder.

In other words, while there may be interest in Tejada from St. Louis, it would be a major surprise to see any action in that area until at least late next month and the chance of it not proceeding at all has increased substantially in recent days.

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Rumor: Sox offering a joyless Ludwick for Rasmus?

Word is that the White Sox are targeting St. Louis Cardinals centerfielder Colby Rasmus in trade, with Chicago offering a player with a very familiar profile and red flags attached.

Blockbuster trades in today’s MLB are much less frequent than back in the pre-free agent days, when general managers like Frank “Trader” Lane made their reputation (and sometimes lost it) through scores of player swaps with their peers.

Chicago White Sox general manager Kenny Williams, one of the co-stars of a recent reality television series on MLB Network, may be today’s closest reincarnation of Lane.

Within the last few days, word leaked out of Williams’ proposal to deal his popular, but combustible manager Ozzie Guillen, to the Florida Marlins. The requested take was immense – rookie Marlins’ outfielder Mike Stanton.

In Saturday’s Chicago Sun-Times, another Williams maneuver to acquire a young outfielder with potential superstar talent was disclosed. Two sources indicate that the GM has St. Louis Cardinals outfielder Colby Rasmus in his sights.

Carlos Quentin (AP Photo/M. Spencer Green)According to a major league scout, the Sox are proposing a package that includes outfielder Carlos Quentin. Other players in the potential deal were not named.

The same scout notes Cardinals scouts were “paying extra attention” to Quentin late in the season, implying the proposed deal may have been under consideration for some time.

Adding weight to the rumor is the news that a White Sox source contacted by the Sun-Times confirmed that Rasmus had been brought up during the final weeks of the regular season.

While Rasmus has had trouble with the Cardinals, Quentin has had problems with baseball in general.

This quote from the Sun-Times speaks volumes:

“The Sox love his raw talent but are concerned about his capacity to grind out an entire season without beating himself up mentally. A team source said Quentin planned to again visit with a life coach this offseason so he could ‘start having some fun in the game’.”

So Quentin already has problems despite playing for the loose manager Guillen and his last attempt at getting professional help did not take. Does he sound like a good fit for Tony La Russa’s grind-it-out a hard nine innings at-a-time Cardinals?

It is not as if there are reports of Quentin beating himself up physically as did former St. Louis shortstop Khalil Greene, but why again take on the additional risk of someone else’s problem?

From a salary and years perspective, this deal would also be a loser for the Cardinals, at least on a one-for-one basis.

Rasmus, 24, with only two years of MLB experience, has four more years of team control prior to free agency. Quentin has just two remaining.

Like Rasmus, the 28-year-old Quentin was a former first-round draft pick, taken in 2003 by Arizona and dealt to the Sox prior to the 2007 season. Chicago’s right fielder made $3.2 million in 2010, his first of three arbitration-eligible years. Quentin is not yet under contract for 2011 or 2012 but will surely be in line for increases.

In other words, Quentin is at the same exact spot in his career as was Ryan Ludwick one year ago. A key reason cited for Ludwick being traded away by the Cardinals this summer was his escalating salary in his final two years prior to free agency.

In terms of on-field results offensively, the two’s recent pasts are eerily similar.

Quentin had a superb breakout season in 2008, during which he was an All-Star and Silver Slugger Award winner, but dropped off in performance the last two years. Ludwick has the exact same profile – 2008 All-Star and Silver Slugger who did not match that level of play in 2009 or 2010.

Quentin Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
2008 CHW 130 480 96 138 26 1 36 100 66 80 0.288 0.394 0.571 0.965 148
2009 CHW 99 351 47 83 14 0 21 56 31 52 0.236 0.323 0.456 0.779 98
2010 CHW 131 453 73 110 25 2 26 87 50 83 0.243 0.342 0.479 0.821 117
Ludwick Team G AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS OPS+
2008 STL 152 538 104 161 40 3 37 113 62 146 0.299 0.375 0.591 0.966 150
2009 STL 139 486 63 129 20 1 22 97 41 106 0.265 0.329 0.447 0.775 105
2010 STL/SD 136 490 63 123 27 2 17 69 48 121 0.251 0.325 0.418 0.743 104

One big difference is that Quentin is considered a poor defender, designated hitter material in the eyes of some, and has the reputation of being injury prone to boot, but hey, at least he is four years younger than Ludwick!

Seriously, why would the Cardinals trade Ludwick away in July, only to add a similar version with more warts a few months later while losing two cost-controlled seasons of the younger centerfielder Rasmus to boot?

For this rumored deal to gain traction, there would have to be a lot more to it, it would seem.

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What is behind the Cardinals’ minor league issues?

Questioning reasons assigned to focus areas for the St. Louis Cardinals minor league system.

St. Louis Post-Dispatch Cardinals beat writer Joe Strauss’ weekly Q&A sessions cover a wide variety of team-related topics and are a must-read for the team’s fans.

When the subject of the minor leagues come up, however, sometimes I feel that cause and effect relationships are being drawn in what appears to be an absolute manner about subjects that are more complex than can be neatly summarized in a few sentences.

Here is one such example.

“…Rather than remaining transfixed on minor-league records (the Cardinals led the industry in minor-league win percentage last season), greater emphasis will be placed on development…”

Is this supposed problem statement accurate and is its proposed resolution an appropriate pairing?

Is the fundamental problem a lack of focus on development or a lack of coordination between the preferred teaching approaches of the major and minor league staffs? The latter definitely seemed the case in the pitching area as the ongoing disconnect between Dave Duncan and the minor league instructors received continued heavy public scrutiny.

It seems an unwarranted attack on the professionals across the minor league system to imply they were single-mindedly focused on winning at the expense of developing their players. I spent time with most of the Cardinals minor league affiliates this summer and did not see evidence of this alleged fixation.

In fact, I don’t think I could define the set of actions in the real world that would illustrate this concept. Would it mean stacking rosters? Starting the best players every day? Not messing with the approach of players who are doing well? Signing large quantities of minor league veterans? Exactly what would an all-out focus on winning actually mean? If someone sent out a memo to that effect, I would love to read what it says.

It is rumored there will be a return of two important positions that have been open in the Minor League Field Coordinator, last filled by Jim Riggleman three years ago and Hitting Coordinator, previously held by Dan Radison in 2009. That is a positive, but should one leap to the conclusion that it will be done to reverse a supposed past over-emphasis on winning?

From the outside looking in, it indicates the organization can be damned either way. In the recent past, they were viewed as rushing players, promoting them before they are viewed to be ready for the next level. In 2010, they seemed to slow down the process, leaving players in place longer and in some cases, reversing promotions that proved to be too aggressive. An increased level of roster stability may have been a factor in improved won-loss records.

A later question in the same session allowed Strauss to zero in on what I believe is a more likely explanation than a supposed fixation on won-loss attainment. But even that was not presented without further drawing of unsupported conclusions as to why.

“Critics of recent Cardinal drafts note a lack of size (power) and athleticism (speed) due to a stats-based approach. My sense is there is an approaching adjustment away from “safe” picks who may reach the majors as complementary types toward higher-risk, higher-impact guys. At some point, the organization’s enhanced commitment within Latin America should reap dividends.”

The lack of size and athleticism seems a fair observation, but how do we know the reason is because of the use of stats?

Precisely who are these alleged critics and where did they say this?

Don’t the higher-risk, higher-impact guys have good stats, too?

Such comments as the above seem to reinforce the tired, old “one way or the other” arguments of scouts versus stats of five or six years ago rather than an acknowledgment of today’s reliance on a blend of the two – an approach that is commonplace across all of baseball, not just in St. Louis.

The second sentence in the above quote is what I believe may be a key factor behind the earlier comment regarding the minor league records.

A system heavy with “safe” picks may very well be a reason the minor league results have improved. The downside, of course, is fewer of these players are viewed to be future impact major leaguers. This is a quantity versus quality question that I think may have merit.

Just this week, I spoke with a minor league manager on this very subject. When I complimented him on a fine season, he reminded me of the overriding importance of player development. He then recalled a team he once managed that posted a terrible won-loss record, but ended up producing five future major leaguers.

It seems unlikely there is a single reason behind this quantity versus quality question, however. It is easy to point an accusatory finger at the “stat geeks” but the issue could have just as likely been a reluctance to invest the necessary over slot signing bonuses demanded by the top players in the draft. Critics of the system usually trot out the 2007 first-round draft selection of relatively-inexpensive Pete Kozma over big-bucks, big talent Rick Porcello to drive home this point.

As was also touched on ever-so-briefly in the excerpted answer above, the increased investment in Latin America must be considered in the overall picture. With a finite amount of financial resource, tradeoffs have to be made. If more money is spent in the Dominican Republic and Venezuela, it only stands to reason there will be less to allocate on the US amateur draft.

To that end, I am currently working on writing up The Cardinal Nation’s annual awards across the Cardinals minor league system. Among them are three awards for the rookie Starting Pitcher, Reliever and Position Player of the Year. Two of the three winners are graduates of the overseas academies, playing their first seasons in the USA, while only one is a member of the 2010 draft class.

In conclusion, I don’t disagree with much of what Strauss was getting at, but I do question where, why and how firmly the blame is being attached. I believe there is combination of many factors that must be adjusted and fine-tuned together to enable system-wide improvement across the board.

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Limbo in Batavia continues

Batavia MuckdogsRochester is back to manage the still-for-sale Batavia Muckdogs for 2011, but none of the underlying financial problems have changed.

Seemingly out of the blue, a press release appeared on Tuesday, announcing that Rochester Community Baseball (RCB) has come to terms with owner Genesee County Baseball Club (GCBC) to operate the money-losing Batavia Muckdogs for a fourth season in 2011.

I say “out of the blue” because late-season comments by RCB chairman Naomi Silver made it clear that RCB, owner/operator of the Triple-A Rochester Red Wings, had reached the breaking point in losing money operating the Muckdogs.

“It truly breaks my heart to think about the people that will suffer in this loss,” said Silver in July. “…We cannot be expected to continue to take $100,000 losses. We’ve been left with no alternative.

“This is really serious,” said Silver. “We would love to stay, but we really need to see improvement in attendance numbers.”

Silver had already taken considerable heat from unhappy RCB stakeholders at their annual meeting about the financial drain caused by their management of the Muckdogs.

If anything changed attendance-wise since Silver’s July warning, it was only for the worse, despite the Cardinals having done their part by providing a playoff entrant for the second time in the last three years. Fans still remained home in droves.

Batavia’s 1,016 regular season average gate in 2010 was dead last in the 14-team New York-Penn League. In fact, the Muckdogs drew an embarrassing total of just 601 fans for what became their final game of the 2010 post-season.

In the same August release that announced the team was officially being put up for sale, GCBC’s president, Brian Paris, seemed resigned to the fact that RCB was planning to walk.

“We thank the Red Wings for these last three years, which included the memorable 2008 championship season,” Paris said. “They have indicated that they are probably going to move on, and we respect their decision.”

By September, Silver’s comments had moderated and here in October, she invoked civic duty as an explanation for remaining linked to the Muckdogs for another year.

So what might really have been behind the abrupt change in heart by RCB?

A wild guess. What else? Money.

One official with whom I spoke suggested the marriage continues because RCB needs to protect its ownership stake in the team until it can be sold.

RCB had reportedly accrued a 15 percent share of the Muckdogs, five percent for each of its first three years of operation, redeemable if/when the club is purchased.

The financial arrangement between RCB and GCBC going forward has not yet been announced, but The Batavia Daily News reports RCB’s ownership share is 20 percent and reminds the reader that if the Muckdogs’ franchise was to be revoked by the league, the equity in the team would be lost.

That last point is crucial. If the New York-Penn League saw the Muckdogs without a management structure in place for 2011, they may have had no choice but to pull the franchise. That would have left both owners high and dry. In RCB’s case, all they would have left to show for their efforts is three years of losses reportedly totaling a half million dollars.

With seemingly time running out to sell, move the team and still prepare for the 2011 season, Tuesday’s announcement by RCB does seem to signal that no changes are likely expected for next year. Not coincidentally, on Wednesday, the Muckdogs followed with the release of their 2011 schedule.

Publicly at least, Paris is still holding out hope that a benefactor who doesn’t mind pouring large amounts of money into a perennially-losing proposition will magically step forward and rescue the Muckdogs from fully sinking into their financial muck.

“Our hope is that a local sale will occur, or that an individual or company will step forward with an interest in spending substantial sponsorship dollars, allowing the financial picture to improve,” Paris said in the Tuesday release.

More realistically, the best RCB’s return can probably accomplish is to buy more time for a new owner to be found – one who would most likely move the club to an area with a better hope to draw customers and with an improved facility for fans and players alike. It looks like that will occur no sooner than the 2011-2012 off-season, however.

From an on-field perspective, there will be short-term continuity as well. The Cardinals recently signed a two-year extension of their Player Development Contract with the team, which will follow if ownership and/or the location of the club change.

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Pujols in Boston and La Russa 2.0

Calling out a pair of interesting articles about the St. Louis Cardinals star player and his former teammate (along with his current manager, sort of).

Pujols and Big Papi (AP/Charles Krupa)Catching up on my Sunday reading, I came across an interesting item concerning the future of Albert Pujols. Rather than being from an anonymous blog somewhere, it was posted on the NESN website.

It is significant to note that the New England Sports Network is primarily owned by the Boston Red Sox and naturally holds their television rights. Their Red Sox reporter, Tony Lee, penned a piece entitled “Red Sox Could be Contenders in Albert Pujols 2011 Free Agency Race.”

Though I follow baseball closely, I didn’t know the specifics of the Red Sox’ minor league pipeline, but I was aware of the long-time interest the club has allegedly held in San Diego Padres’ first sacker Adrian Gonzalez.

Lee puts forth an interesting take as to why and how the Red Sox might make a run at Pujols instead if he reaches free agency in 12 months. He also notes why the Yankees may not compete.

As one might expect, Red Sox fans are especially unsettled after missing the playoffs for just the second time in the last eight years and finishing in third place behind Tampa Bay and New York. Still, the Sox won 89 games, three more than the Cardinals.

Of course, at this juncture at least, most everyone expects Pujols to remain a Cardinal for the foreseeable future, but until it is done, it isn’t done.

In the meantime, I expect we will start seeing more Lee-like pieces popping up all over the baseball landscape. What makes this one a bit more notable is its source. Of all the 29 remaining clubs, the Red Sox are among the relative handful with the money, market and prestige to land a big fish like Pujols.

The bridge to my next item is the DOVE ad campaign entitled “Journeys to Comfort.” Along with Yankees pitcher Andy Pettitte, the other two headliners are Pujols and Pettitte’s manager Joe Girardi.

Joe Girardi (2003) (Getty Images)La Russa 2.0

I couldn’t help but chuckle over a Sunday piece from the New York Post that describes in a begrudging manner why Girardi will likely be back to manage the Yankees. The deal may be three years, $9 million, says a later report from Jon Heyman of SI.com.

Back when there was some uncertainty about Tony La Russa’s return, the former Cardinals catcher (2003), FOX Sports broadcaster and Florida Marlins manager was mentioned by some as a possible replacement candidate in St. Louis.

Among the comments about Girardi from writer Joel Sherman:

“…a very good manager. Prepared. Smart. A student of the game.”

Then Sherman proceeded to march and burn his way through the manager’s office, inflicting some collateral damage as well…

“…you have to wonder if the Cardinals would have wanted the 2.0 version of La Russa — tense and paranoid — to succeed him.”

“…clenched teeth, edgy pacing and obsession with his black binder.”

“Thus players end up, at best, respecting him rather than having a human connection that would foster something greater.”

“…a personality that too often strays to the robotic or — worse — dishonest.”

“So if he is deceitful or anxiety-laced, that becomes the face and the pulse of the team.”

“When you treat every bit of information about your team — including the innocuous — as if it should be CIA classified, then your joyless persona begins to corrupt clubhouse atmosphere, as well.”

Has anyone around here ever heard anything like that before? Apparently Joe learned well.

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Feast or famine: The 2010 Cardinals increased run-scoring

Looking at when the 2010 St. Louis Cardinals’ offense scored their runs indicates an increased number of blowouts compared to 2009.

Mark McGwire (Getty Images)During a Monday in which Mark McGwire’s return as hitting coach of the St. Louis Cardinals for 2011 was announced, there was a Twitter-driven backlash against those critical of the coach and his inconsistent 2010 offense.

Cited was the truth that the Cardinals scored more runs than in 2009 in a year during which offense was down across the game. The reality for the Cardinals was a meager increase of six runs scored over 162 games, or up 0.8 percent. However, it was more impressive when put up against the backdrop of a 2.4 percent decline in scoring across the National League. (details here)

Still, after having watched most of St. Louis’ games this past season, it felt to me like the offense often didn’t score when needed. Given the small increase in total runs scored, this might imply they crossed the plate more often when those runs were less valuable.

To test that thought, I calculated the average runs scored by the Cardinals over the last four years, broken out between games the Cardinals won versus the ones they lost. Even though the hitters don’t have any impact on the pitching or runs scored by the opposition, I also looked at the average run differential, again separated between wins and losses.

Cards Wins Avg R/G Avg R Diff Losses Avg R/G Avg R Diff
2010 86 6.21 3.90 76 2.66 3.16
2009 91 5.95 3.62 71 2.66 3.37
2008 86 6.67 3.55 76 2.70 3.30
2007 78 6.67 3.85 84 2.44 4.81

Though the Cards won five fewer games this season than last, they averaged one-quarter of a run more in each win. They also increased their margin of victory in those contests by just a bit more, .28 runs per game, to the highest winning edge in at least the last four years.

Looking at their losses, the Cardinals scored the exact same average amount of runs per defeat in both 2009 and 2010, while closing the gap in the average loss by .21 runs per game this past season compared to last.

The average run differential in losses of 3.16 runs was the club’s tightest margin in at least the last four years. That should be attributed to better Cardinals pitching, not an improved offense, since again, run-scoring in the losses was flat year-to-year.

In other words, one might conclude that on the average, the 2010 Cardinals improvement in run scoring was “wasted”, as they increased their bulge in games they were likely en route to have won anyway.

More blowout wins in 2010

The analysis above was still based on averages across the 86 wins and 76 losses. I wanted to try to get more granular in my review. So, to take this one step further, I looked at the run differential in each of the Cardinals wins over the last two seasons. They break out as follows.

Win margin 1-R 2-R 3-R 4-R 5-R 6-R 7-R 8-R 9-R 10-R 13-R Total games won
2010 20 13 9 11 9 10 4 7 1 2 0 86
2009 24 13 16 9 12 3 7 0 5 1 1 91

win-margin-chart-2Grouping the numbers really tells the story. Here is the same data, split between the quantity of games in which the Cardinals won by five or fewer runs compared to the ones they won by six or more scores.

Cardinals 1-5 run wins % total wins 6+ run wins % total wins
2010 62 72.1% 24 27.9%
2009 64 79.0% 17 21.0%

As the data clearly indicates, the Cardinals increased their number of blowout victories in 2010 over 2009, both in terms of absolute wins (up from 17 to 24) and especially in percentage of wins (from 21 percent up to 28 percent), while taking fewer close contests.

This reinforces my earlier point that more of St. Louis’ runs in 2010 seemed to be “wasted” in comparison to the year before.

Fewer blowout losses

For completeness, let’s take one more cut at the data, this time looking at runs scored in Cardinals losses over the last two seasons.

Loss margin 1-R 2-R 3-R 4-R 5-R 6-R 7-R 8-R 9-R 10-R 11-R 14-R Total games lost
2010 22 12 15 9 11 1 3 1 1 0 0 1 76
2009 21 12 12 6 7 4 4 1 2 1 1 0 71

loss-margins-chart-1When we roll up the data into the same categories as above, losses of five or fewer runs compared to defeats of six or more runs, the Cardinals had fewer blowout losses in 2010 compared to 2009.

Cardinals 1-5 run losses % total losses 6+ run losses % total losses
2010 69 90.8% 7 9.2%
2009 58 81.7% 13 18.3%

In summary

Bottom line, it isn’t necessarily all that valuable just to score more often. It is better to do so in games where the additional runs might truly alter the outcome.

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As the Duncan (re-)turns?

The indefinite waiting to learn of future plans has moved from the manager of St. Louis Cardinals to pitching coach Dave Duncan.

When we last left the Dave Duncan situation, it was prior to the announcement of Tony La Russa’s decision to return for a 16th year at the helm of the St. Louis Cardinals. The pitching coach’s widely-reported remarks included the following.

“The ideal situation would not be to coach in St. Louis for one more year then find another place for two more years,” Duncan told the Post-Dispatch on October 15. “The ideal situation would be to coach three years in the same place.”

Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan (AP/James A. Finley)Since then, La Russa came back, but only on a one-year deal that may have signaled some indecision in whether or not to offer Duncan his desired three-year commitment. Then, there was the most uncomfortable firing of Duncan’s long-time lieutenant, bullpen coach Marty Mason.

While it was stated that Duncan was ok with the Mason move, I don’t believe he has not been quoted publicly on the matter. It is hard to imagine the no-nonsense pitching coach didn’t have strong feelings about the highly-public sacking.

When La Russa met with the media in St. Louis last Wednesday to discuss his own decision, he seemed to indicate that Duncan’s choice was also very near.

“Mark (McGwire) might decide tomorrow. ‘Dunc’ might decide tomorrow,” La Russa told the Post-Dispatch on the 20th. “But they’re coming at it from different places.”

Perhaps there is nothing more to the delay than the Cardinals wanting to announce their 2011 staff all at once. Still, even if Duncan has no intentions of moving elsewhere, others are very interested in him.

Just about anywhere across baseball, whether the pitching coach job is open or not, the name “Dave Duncan” is being touted as a possible savior. Check any team-oriented message board on the internet from the Yankees on down and you’ll likely find an “I don’t know if we could pull this off, but what about hiring Dave Duncan?” thread.

Though no official interest or interviews have been reported to my knowledge, the persistent buzz includes a couple of the game’s most storied and deep-pocketed clubs.

One prestigious job that is officially coming open today, Monday, is with the Boston Red Sox. Fan interest in hiring Duncan to replace Toronto’s new manager Rick Farrell as the Red Sox’ pitching coach has already made the Boston Globe, though the idea was discouraged.

One team that currently has a pitching coach in Dan Warthen, the New York Mets, is looking to replace both their general manager and the field manager. At least some think scoring Duncan is possible, too. A prominent Mets-focused site mentions Duncan’s past relationship with Sandy Alderson, one of two front-runners to win the team’s GM spot. The article also notes concern over how son Chris Duncan was treated by the organization and a desire by Dave to have a greater say in system-wide pitching instruction as reasons that the pitching coach might bolt.

The longer the Duncan delay continues, the wider the speculation about his plans grow. Even if the McGwire situation remains unsettled, the Cardinals would be very wise to get the uncertainty over Duncan’s future off the table.

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You too can be a Bandit!

News from the St. Louis Cardinals Class A affiliate in the Quad Cities includes a key job opening and release of their 2011 schedule.

qc-river-bandits-logo-alt-1C’mon, admit it. You’ve been the world’s best armchair general manager all these years and now want to take it to the next level, right?

If so, I have the perfect opportunity. Main Street Baseball, owners of the St. Louis Cardinals’ Midwest League affiliate, the Quad Cities River Bandits, is advertising an opening for an Assistant GM.

So what if it would require a move to Davenport, Iowa? It could be just right for you!

The job description follows. (Overlook the part where they say the “candidtate” must be a skilled communicator.)

Administration/General Management: General Management/Profit & Loss
Assistant General Manager – Main Street Baseball – (Quad Cities River Bandits) (Davenport, IA)

A proven and established ownership group is seeking an experienced Assistant General Manager. This highly sales-oriented position will assist in complete oversight of a minor league baseball team and will be charged with leading the club’s sponsorship, ticket and group sales efforts, stadium operation, budgeting, advertising, marketing and promotions, expense management and overall direction of the club. This position requires a thorough knowledge of strategic selling techniques and corporate benefit strategies so that he/she can create sales strategies for the sales force. He/she is responsible for establishing and maintaining community relations with the decision makers of area businesses, schools, associations and churches. The ideal candidtate (sic) must also be a skilled communicator, as this position requires constant interaction with (and coaching of) all other departments. The ideal candidate will have 3-5 years experience in managing a team and facility, have a proven track record of sales success, be able to successfully manage a budget and team expenses and have a strong motivation to earn advancement in Minor League Baseball.

Note: When you apply for this job online, you will be required to answer the following questions:

1. What challenge have you overcome that you are most proud of?

2. What is your biggest sales success story?

2011 schedule released

In other River Bandits news, the club has announced its 2011 schedule. The season opener will be on Thursday, April 7 at home. Modern Woodmen Park will also be the site of the 2011 Midwest League All-Star Game. The Home Run Derby will be held on Monday, June 20 with the game the following night.

Note: Memphis and Springfield schedules for next season have already been released.

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Cardinals offense year-to-year: Part two

Comparing the year-to-year change in the St. Louis Cardinals offensive results from 2009 to 2010 to the National League as a whole.

Mark McGwire (Getty Images)In yesterday’s post, I compared the output of the 2009 and 2010 St. Louis Cardinals offense, noting that in terms of absolute numbers, four areas were up, four others were down and two others were flat year-to-year.

Several readers have suggested a view that contrasts the Cardinals with the league would offer a better comparison as it would take into account the shift across baseball to better pitching and poorer hitting in 2010.

That seemed a reasonable effort. What follows is a comparison of the percentage change in major offensive stats over the past two seasons between the Cardinals and the National League in its entirety. For consistency, I used the same ten statistical categories as in the initial article.

Cards AVG Chg SLG Chg OBP Chg
2010 0.263 0.0% 0.402 -3.1% 0.332 0.0%
2009 0.263 0.415 0.332
NL AVG Chg SLG Chg OBP Chg
2010 0.255 -1.5% 0.399 -2.4% 0.324 -2.1%
2009 0.259 0.409 0.331
Advantage Cards NL Cards

Starting with rate stats, the Cardinals flat batting average and on-base percentage is positive when considering the declines across the league. However, the Cardinals drop in slugging percentage was greater than experienced by the NL as a whole.

Cards TB Chg 2B Chg HR Chg
2010 2227 -1.8% 285 -3.1% 150 -6.3%
2009 2268 294 160
NL TB Chg 2B Chg HR Chg
2010 35101 -2.3% 4470 -3.0% 2404 -3.1%
2009 35915 4606 2482
Advantage Cards NL NL

While the Cardinals declined in all three categories in the above table, so did the NL. Only in total bases was St. Louis’ decline smaller than the league. The Cardinals doubles rate showed a slightly greater drop while their fall off in home runs was double the league’s rate of decline.

Cards R Chg BB-IBB Chg SO Chg GIDP Chg
2010 736 0.8% 463 1.8% 1027 -1.3% 124 -2.4%
2009 730 455 1041 127
NL R Chg BB-IBB Chg SO Chg GIDP Chg
2010 11211 -2.4% 7652 -6.2% 19092 4.4% 1917 -3.1%
2009 11481 8156 18282 1979
Advantage Cards Cards Cards NL

In the final group of stats, the Cards bucked the trend by scoring slightly more and taking more non-intentional walks while the league declined in each. St. Louis hitters struck out less while the NL whiffed more. Both groups cut their ground into double plays, but the league improved at a greater rate.

The bottom line tally is that the Cardinals performed better year-to-year than the National League in six of the ten selected offensive measurements and poorer than the NL as a whole in the other four.

Specifically, the Cardinals excelled in batting average, on-base percentage, runs, non-intentional walks, strikeouts and total bases.

The Cardinals lagged behind the league in slugging, ground into double plays, doubles and home runs.

This sample would seem to tip the scales toward overall improvement by the club as compared to the drop in offensive performance across the National League year to year.

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Was McGwire worth six more runs in 2010?

Comparing Mark McGwire’s 2010 St. Louis Cardinals offense to Hal McRae’s 2009 version shows six more runs scored but a 6% drop in home runs.

Last October, in a controversial move, the St. Louis Cardinals hired former home run hero-turned shamed recluse-soon to turn repentant ex-steroids user Mark McGwire as their hitting coach. In the process, his predecessor, Hal McRae, was shown the door after five years.

Among manager Tony La Russa’s many comments at the time:

“The pros overwhelmed the cons… I think I was trusted by our ownership to make the right judgment,” La Russa said, “and I would have been very disappointed if I wasn’t.”

With the 2010 regular season in the books forever, let’s see if the only quantitative measure of McGwire’s results – the numbers posted by his hitters – are pro-Big Mac or con.

Mark McGwire (Doug Benc/Getty Images)During a disappointing season in which the defending National League Central Division champion Cardinals missed the playoffs, the club’s inconsistent hitters were considered by many to have been a key factor in the team’s unexpected shortfall.

Of course, there are a number of variables in any year-to-year comparison, yet the core of the Cardinals offense remained the same from 2009 to 2010. One positive in 2010 was a full-season of $120 million-man Matt Holliday, partially offset by only a half-year of former All-Star Ryan Ludwick.

When all was said and done, across the entire 162-game season, the Cardinals scored six more runs under McGwire in 2010 than they did under McRae in 2009. That works out to a statistically-insignificant rate of 4.54 runs per game compared to 4.51.

Let’s take a look at a number of other stats from the Cardinals offense as well as their rankings within the 16-team National League.

Cards AVG Rank SLG Rank OBP Rank
2010 0.263 2nd 0.402 8th 0.332 T5th
2009 0.263 5th 0.415 6th 0.332 T9th

First, we see the team batting average and on-base percentage remained remarkably stable from year to year. The respective stats’ rankings improved in comparison to the rest of the league in a year when pitching was up and hitting was down across the game.

Surprisingly, the slugging percentage of the former slugger McGwire’s Cardinals was down from the year prior, despite an early-season home run burst. The next table breaks down the difference.

Cards TB Rank 2B Rank HR Rank
2010 2227 T7th 285 8th 150 8th
2009 2268 7th 294 7th 160 6th

As indicated above, McRae’s 2009 charges had hit nine more doubles, ten more home runs and collected 41 more total bases than did the 2010 Cards hitters, with better NL ranks accordingly. Another way to look at it is that the team’s 2010 home run count was down over six percent compared to the previous year.

Cards R Rank BB-IBB Rank SO Rank GIDP Rank
2010 736 6th 463 11th 1027 15th 124 T5th
2009 730 7th 455 T13th 1041 14th 127 9th

Just because McGwire’s hitters didn’t bring more pop doesn’t mean they didn’t show at least some improvement in other areas. As mentioned above, they plated six more runs. The batters also demonstrated a bit more patience, drawing eight more non-intentional walks, fanning 14 fewer times and grounding into three fewer double plays than the year before.  In each case, the Cardinals improved their relative standing against the NL.

Remember that the magnitude of all these differences must be considered over a full 162-game schedule, making most of these year-to-year changes relatively minor.

Considering everything, decide for yourself if all the Cardinals McGwire-related activity was worth the benefit received.

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Where will the Cardinals coaching carousel stop?

The St. Louis Cardinals have decided upon their manager for 2011, but three coaching positions remain unsettled.

Tony La Russa and Dave Duncan (AP/James A. Finley)The manager

As has been reported ad nauseum, manager Tony La Russa has announced his intent to return to the St. Louis Cardinals for a 16th season. His newest contract is a one-year deal with a mutual option for 2012.

The option was explained by general manager John Mozeliak as an attempt to avoid some of the “circus” surrounding La Russa’s annual Brett Favre-like end-of-season decision-making process over whether or not to return.

Not realistic.

Whether or not La Russa has a contract for the next season, he is still going to go through the same soul-searching at the conclusion of 2011 as he has done every year in recent memory. As the manager’s three decade-long career nears its end, these machinations will likely continue at least one more year – even though they are entirely unnecessary.

During the 2012 season, La Russa should pick up the 126th additional managerial win needed to pass legendary Giants manager John McGraw for second all-time. Though La Russa does not discuss it, that mark is likely a big deal to him and as such will be the reason he will almost certainly remain with the Cardinals for 2012 as well.

The pitching coach

One factor I had not considered before now was the effect of La Russa’s contact on his extraordinary pitching coach, Dave Duncan. By the manager basically dodging the subject of a two-year deal, he put extra pressure on his long-time collaborator, who recently came out publicly with a request for a three-year extension.

Let’s face it. At this point in their lives, mid-sixties in age, when most Americans are looking at their own retirement, it seems most likely that neither La Russa nor Duncan want to move on and resume their careers in a new organization. That is understandable.

While Duncan’s past work would justify such a multi-year commitment, it would be unusual to give a coach two more years of job security than his boss. Still, La Russa’s eventual successor should be delighted to be presented with a year overlap with one of the best pitching coaches ever.

The bullpen coach

Duncan’s former chief deputy, bullpen coach Marty Mason, was fired for making critical remarks about the organization’s player development function. Mozeliak has suggested that Mason’s replacement will come from within.

Fan interest immediately focused on two recent Cardinals players in their early 40’s who have until now resisted taking on full-time jobs with the team so they could be more involved in raising their families.

I am speaking of the former battery of pitcher Cal Eldred and catcher Mike Matheny, St. Louis teammates in 2003 and 2004.

Both seem to be good baseball men and solid communicators, assets important for the position. On the other hand, neither has paid dues in the minor leagues, learning first-hand what is expected of an everyday, all-day coach.

Further, it has been nine years since one of the hard-working coaches at the minor league level has been asked to join the major league staff, Joe Pettini back in 2002.

One has to wonder how giving Mason’s job to a former La Russa player with no regular professional coaching experience would be considered a benefit by those currently toiling in the bowels of player development.

The hitting coach

Speaking of which, the last coach to have joined the staff also had no pro coaching jobs on his resume. Hitting coach Mark McGwire is having second thoughts about coming back for a second season in 2011.

His family is obviously important to him and has multiple new members as his wife had triplets in June. The reality of three new youngsters has apparently become a major concern. As recently as early September, McGwire was still very much gung-ho on returning to the Cardinals, but perhaps being home every day since the season ended has eroded his coaching resolve.

Despite others crediting McGwire for leading the offense to increased run-scoring over 2009, the reality was a difference of just six runs in total over the entire six month season compared to deposed Hal McRae‘s hitters the year prior. In 162 games, six runs translate to a scoring rate of 4.54 runs per game compared to 4.51. Putting all the noise aside, the bottom-line statistical benefit of McGwire over McRae was insignificant to say the least.

McGwire has been critical of the club’s reliance on video scouting. One prominent columnist joined in the attack, calling the La Russa-driven process an “infatuation” and an “addiction.” Right or wrong, at a minimum, it would seem there is a fundamental mismatch here between La Russa’s favored approach and McGwire’s.

After the major investment the organization made in supporting his controversial hiring last winter and afterward, McGwire owes them a timely decision on his future so they can move ahead.

If Big Mac walks, a prime replacement candidate is assistant hitting coach Mike Aldrete, like several others a former La Russa associate with no past connections to the Cardinals. While the ex-Oakland player may have done well in his assistant role, looking to the minor league ranks for the new hitting coach would be an even more important step in building bridges than would the sourcing of arguably the least-visible member of the staff, the bullpen coach.

Mozeliak’s next steps will be most interesting.

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Marty Mason’s on-field scorecard

Performance of his relief pitchers was not the reason the St. Louis Cardinals fired bullpen coach Marty Mason.

Marty Mason and Jason Isringhausen, 2007 (AP/Charlie Riedel)A typical knee-jerk reaction to the news of the dismissal of St. Louis Cardinals bullpen coach Marty Mason was a message board post at The Cardinal Nation that said this:

“Considering how many games the bullpen blew this year, that doesn’t surprise me.”

That seemed off base to me. Given the myriad of problems of the underachieving 2010 club, such as poor baserunning, sloppy defense, lack of timely hitting and so on, the relief corps had not often come up as a problem during the season.

I decided to pull out the numbers from recent seasons to see what they had to say about Mason’s charges in 2010.

While bullpen meltdown games are often notable, especially the July 6 loss in Colorado in which the relievers coughed up a six-run lead while yielding nine runs in the ninth inning, they were relatively few and far between.

In fact, the pen had a better save conversion percentage in 2010 than in either of the previous two seasons, showing improvement for the second consecutive year. The problem was not theirs, considerably fewer opportunities presented them, down to 42 from 73 just two years prior.

St. Louis Cardinals, relievers, 2008-2010

Pen Saves Opps Save %
2010 32 42 76.2%
2009 43 58 74.1%
2008 42 73 57.5%

In terms of innings pitched, despite the starters generally having a good season, the relievers were called upon to pitch 25 2/3 more innings in 2010 compared to 2009, but the total was less than in 2008. To put that into context, in 2009, the Cardinals tossed the fewest relief innings in the National League (16th of 16), and still pitched the fourth-fewest this past season.

Won-loss record is included for completeness, but seems a more random stat, in my opinion.

The Cardinals bullpen ERA was up ever so slightly, by 0.06 year-to-year, and from fourth-lowest to sixth-lowest in the NL. Each of the last two seasons was considerably better than 2008 despite the Cardinals having a younger crew overall.

Pen IP NL Rank W L % ERA NL Rank
2010 462 2/3 13th 18 20 0.474 3.73 6th
2009 437 16th 22 18 0.550 3.67 4th
2008 499 10th 22 31 0.415 4.20 11th

The next table includes home runs, walks, strikeouts and opponent batting average. What is especially notable to me is the considerable drop in free passes issued for the second consecutive year. That continued a positive trend in terms of strikeout-to-walk ratio, to the point the pen in aggregate had a solid 2:1 distribution in 2010.

Pen HR BB K K:BB OBA
2010 48 169 346 2.0 0.250
2009 43 194 340 1.8 0.238
2008 53 230 381 1.7 0.264

The relief corps did have a couple of areas which could use improvement. In 2010, they did not do as good of a job retiring their first batter faced as in recent seasons. The relievers also allowed a higher rate of inherited runners to score, crossing the 30 percent mark.

Pen 1st Btr Ret 1st Btr % Inh Rnr Score IR %
2010 304 455 66.8% 65 204 31.9%
2009 338 474 71.3% 56 242 23.1%
2008 331 491 67.4% 67 228 29.4%

As has been made clear since the initial announcement, Mason’s firing was due to off-field issues, specifically criticism of the organization’s player development processes, not the performance of the Cardinals relief pitchers. It should not have been numbers-related, as they back up my initial impression that the bullpenners did a pretty good job overall in 2010.

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An exit strategy for Big Mac?

A signal from the St. Louis Cardinals camp that hitting coach Mark McGwire may not return in 2011.

Mark McGwire and Tony La Russa (AP/Jeff Roberson)In the fine print of Monday’s announcement of the return of manager Tony La Russa for his 16th season at the helm of the St. Louis Cardinals was the word that bullpen coach Marty Mason was being fired for having made what was later disclosed to be internal remarks critical of the organization’s player development processes.

In contrast with past La Russa return announcements, there was no statement made about contracts for next season having been offered to and accepted by the remainder of the major league coaches. There had been earlier speculation that one reason for La Russa’s 15-day delay since the end of the season to make his decision was over the future of his staff.

One major question surrounds first-year hitting coach Mark McGwire, a controversial choice from the start due to his past steroid use, lack of professional coaching experience and later because of the offensive inconsistency demonstrated by the Cardinals this past season. Two of McGwire’s holdover students from his private hitting instruction days, Brendan Ryan and Skip Schumaker, were among the club’s biggest disappointments in 2010. The new coach also publicly criticized the organization’s long-standing reliance on video. Mac’s hiring was originally announced last October 26 in conjunction with La Russa’s decision to return for 2010.

Late Monday evening, Post-Dispatch beat writer Joe Strauss tweeted the following:

“According to TLR, McGwire “really torn” about return as hitting coach. (Family reasons.) My guess: He doesn’t.”

This seems very strange.

Just six weeks ago, the Post-Dispatch ran an article by Derrick Goold entitled “McGwire finds he loves coaching,” in which the rookie hitting coach was extremely positive. Among his remarks:

“I know one thing after this, I would really love to be a hitting coach for many, many years,” McGwire said.

Big Mac’s closing comment (highlighting is mine):

“I’ve learned a great deal of stuff throughout this whole season, and I’d love to continue doing this for a long time,” McGwire said. “But I’ve got to be offered the job first.”

Nine days later, Strauss penned another positive McGwire piece, this time from La Russa’s perspective, “La Russa gives McGwire high marks.” Strauss’ opening sentence said it all.

“Mac is back, at least if Cardinals manager Tony La Russa factors in the decision.”

What changed since September 11? Big Mac didn’t mention family matters pulling him away from his work. La Russa was pushing for his return. The outcome of the Cardinals disappointing season was already all but officially decided.

Reading between the lines, perhaps McGwire isn’t being offered the job in 2011.

In other words, could La Russa have lost an internal battle to keep McGwire, with the Cardinals offering the hitting coach a far more gracious exit than given Mason? Or did Big Mac have a 180 degree change of heart since last month?

We’ll see over the upcoming days.

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Revamping MLB’s post-season format

A quick look at two proposals to expand Major League Baseball’s Wild Cards.

I fully acknowledge being a baseball traditionalist. As such, I was not excited about the institution of the Wild Card in MLB. After some time, I now admit that it has been effective in prolonging fan interest and therefore, putting more money into the owners’ coffers.

My main beef moved to the format itself, which I have always strongly felt devalues the first-place finishers by giving them just one more home game than the Wild Card entrant. Having a five-game Division series instead of a seven-game set has also rubbed me the wrong way.

Here in 2010, we have already seen one Wild Card team, the New York Yankees, dispatch a division winner, the Minnesota Twins, in three quick games.

As we learned when the 2011 schedule was announced, next season will begin early – on Thursday, March 31, a half-week sooner than the traditional Monday start. This may have been designed to buy more time for October baseball.

That is what Chicago Trib’s Phil Rogers believes as part of a plan by MLB to expand the playoffs starting this coming year. One big reason why? Money, of course. In-house outlet MLB Network can then elbow up to the post-season broadcasting table.

It would also be consistent with recent comments from commissioner Bud Selig, who in addition to taking frequent bows over the addition of the Wild Card, also notes that MLB has the lowest percentage of playoff participants of major sports and favors a growth in October (and November) ball.

As an aside, I wonder when MLB will make more money from their Advanced Media ventures than from running the teams themselves. As a journalist, I fear the expanding role of the owners of a league self-reporting, with its inherent risks of stifling objectivity, but that is a subject for another day.

Anyway, Rogers suggests two possible formats are under consideration.

1)     A play-in, best-of-three series between the two Wild Card clubs in each league.

2)     A one-game play-in between the two.

The former seems fairer to me than a single winner-take all contest, but even it would not be without controversy. The division winners would have to wait for at least a half-week, which could either be good (resting starters and revamping rotation order) or bad (entire team sitting for the better part of a week getting rusty).

Nothing was yet said about the Division Series and Championship Series mix, but I hope they would make two other changes at the same time as the Wild Card is expanded. First, give the division winners at least a 5-2 home advantage over any Wild Cards and second, increase the DS to seven games.

One other consideration is the removal of potential game 163’s, tiebreaker or play-in contests. The thinking is that they would in effect add a fourth level of post-season play. In other words, too much. Instead, an NFL-style of regular-season tiebreaker based on season series and division record may be implemented, Rogers reports.

On one hand, it would eliminate exciting play-in games like when the Twins and White Sox tied in 2008. Better though would be recognizing what occurred during the 162-game season and giving the berth to the superior team over the previous six months. Overall, I think this proposed change would be positive.

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Differing views on Tony La Russa’s contract

One theory suggests Tony La Russa should not sign a one-year contract to return to the St. Louis Cardinals. I disagree with the logic.

Tony La Russa (AP photo)In the Post-Dispatch on Saturday, columnist Bernie Miklasz returned to a topic he has weighed in on previously over the years – the duration of St. Louis Cardinals manager Tony La Russa’s contract.

Miklasz again offers his view that La Russa being in lame duck status every season has a negative effect on the team, eroding his authority and hurting player motivation.

His solution? Miklasz believes that if La Russa returns to the club for 2011, he should sign a multi-year contract of at least two and possibly three years.

I disagree, much more with the supporting logic than I do with the conclusion itself. I don’t think the contract duration matters.

Here’s why. At 66 years of age and after repeatedly hinting his managerial end is near, La Russa will continue to be a lame duck until the day he finally announces he no longer wants to manage, contract or not. The only question in the interim is how lame.

As Miklasz admits in the article, La Russa always has the option of retiring. Therefore the annual threat/fear of him leaving is not altered by him having a contract for the next year.

If the clubhouse is not fully motivated and some players have tuned La Russa out, a piece of paper that says 2012 or 2013 instead of 2011 isn’t going to be a positive factor, in my opinion. It may not matter at all, or in some cases, the converse might even be argued.

In at least the last four years and perhaps longer, the just-retired Bobby Cox entered each season with no deal in place for the next year. He continued to manage under a series of one-year extensions with the Braves until announcing prior to the 2010 season that it would be his last. If there were concerns in recent years coming out of Atlanta that Cox’ plans were impeding the team’s results on the field, I never heard them.

Certainly the subject is unavoidable. At this juncture of La Russa’s career and considering the uncertainties he injects into the process, the questions will return every summer and fall about the manager’s plans for the upcoming season. Those questions will come from his players, the fans and the media alike.

All a multi-year contract would accomplish is to legally allow the Cardinals to restrict La Russa from managing elsewhere.

Let’s face it. That “security” is pretty much worthless.

If La Russa approached ownership and was firm in his view that he no longer wanted to manage the Cardinals, would they force him to stay against his will? Of course, they wouldn’t. They would release him from his contract.

While no one fully understands La Russa’s value system, might making a multi-year commitment up front cause him to feel an obligation to stay through the entire term, even if he has a change of heart later? Would it be good for anyone if La Russa stayed on for years two and three if he was no longer fully committed to the job?

Further, the Cardinals may want to keep their options open by not committing to multiple years of La Russa. The club has finished weakly in each of the last four years, with just one post-season berth earned despite a very competitive core of players. In addition, there has been enough off-field controversy surrounding the skipper in recent years to warrant caution going forward.

Though not mentioned by Miklasz, some suggest that one potential benefit of an extended La Russa deal would be a demonstration to Albert Pujols that the organization is planning stability into at least the first year of the superstar’s potential free agency.

I don’t buy that logic as Pujols has to understand the reality. No matter what, La Russa will not be his manager for the vast majority of his new contract. I believe there is a wide variety of other far more important factors in Pujols’ upcoming decision.

Bottom line, I don’t see how a multi-year contract for La Russa makes a positive difference, while perhaps actually limiting flexibility.

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Jaime Garcia and arbitration eligibility

An apparent typo in a service time date has led to an incorrect conclusion on several prominent sites.

Jaime Garcia (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)Whether or not a major leaguer is eligible for arbitration is a big deal in terms of compensation as that is the first time a young player can argue in favor of receiving market value instead of a near-minimum salary.

For most, the point of qualification is very clear. Three years of major league service is that tipping point. However, as part of the collective bargaining between the players and ownership, a special arbitration sub-group was added, called Super Twos.

This group consists of the top 17 percent of players with between two and three years of service, where “top” is defined as those having the most service time. This cutoff line varies by year depending on the players in the population, but is often around two years, 130 days. Essentially, being a Super Two means a player can be arbitration-eligible for four years prior to free agency instead of the normal three.

Hence the case of Jaime Garcia.

Coming into this season, Garcia’s service time was listed in the St. Louis Cardinals media guide as 1.147, or one year, 147 days. This information was picked up by a number of online data sources.

The problem is that it wasn’t accurate. Based on the rookie left-hander’s history, the numbers just didn’t add up, with the reported number seemingly too high. After all, just one year prior, Garcia’s service time was 0.081. It seemed impossible for anyone to accrue well over one year of service in just 12 months.

This came to light for me after a discussion with a member of The Cardinal Nation message board community, CariocaCardinal I think, back in March. At that point, I checked with the Cardinals organization and confirmed the 1.147 was in error. It should have read 1.047.

After a full season with the Cardinals in 2010, Garcia’s current service is now 2.047, well below the point where the Super Two line will be drawn. In other words, the Cards can pretty much renew Garcia’s 2011 salary at an above-minimum rate of their choosing.

Unfortunately, that word didn’t completely get out.

Especially this time of year, a segment of the fan base really gets into the bowels of the payroll, both committed and projected. In that light, I was asked about Garcia most recently because of a Thursday article at MLB.com in which he is listed as arbitration-eligible along with teammates Brendan Ryan and Kyle McClellan. The latter two are not under question, each having three or more years of service.

It also came up during a Joe Strauss chat at the Post-Dispatch on Wednesday. He had the incorrect date as well and answered a reader question accordingly. When asked about it later on Twitter, Strauss initially stuck to the number, but after I weighed in, he checked his sources and verified the mistake.

I bring this up not to criticize the Cardinals, Strauss or Matthew Leach, the MLB writer, in any way. Both writers used the best information available to them to draw their conclusion, yet both documents remain up on their respective websites with the incorrect conclusion drawn. The wrong service time for Garcia is also still listed on several prominent internet reference sites.

As such, the purpose of this post is simply to help clarify the situation. Garcia will not yet be eligible for arbitration, likely having saved the Cardinals several million dollars in 2011 as a result.

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Original contracts from Cards Hall of Famers to be auctioned

A group of 36 contracts to go on the block includes ones signed by seven St. Louis Cardinals Hall of Famers.

Though I readily admit that I am not a memorabilia collector, I can appreciate the importance others place on the hobby and respect the value of historically-based items that relate to the rich past of the game of baseball.

SportsCollectorsDaily.com is reporting a group of 36 original contracts signed by Hall of Famers will go on the block individually next April in an auction to be conducted by Robert Edwards Auctions. They range in age from 1892 to 1985 and some of the early ones have interesting language regarding prohibited vices.

Contracts signed by former St. Louis Cardinals greats include:

1921 Rogers Hornsby
1927 Rabbit Maranville
1929 Frankie Frisch
1929 Chick Hafey
1930 Dizzy Dean (Houston minor league)
1931 Jim Bottomley
1964 Bob Gibson

Ex-Cardinals then on other clubs:

1950 Johnny Mize (Yankees)
1980-84 Dennis Eckersley (Red Sox)

In a completely unrelated item, the same website ran a story a couple of days ago about a bizarre mixup that put the signature of NBA Hall of Famer Magic Johnson on baseball cards for recent Cardinals signee Jordan Swagerty. Though the card company will make exchanges, I would imagine collectors would prefer to keep (or sell) the oddities.

Swagerty is also blogging from the Arizona Fall League.

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Is Oquendo on the managerial carousel?

Is St. Louis Cardinals third base coach Jose Oquendo a good candidate to move up?

Tony La Russa and Jose Oquendo (AP/Tom Gannam)Two years ago, St. Louis Cardinals third base coach Jose Oquendo was a hot managerial candidate, securing interviews for jobs in San Diego and Seattle that went to others. Since then, his name seemed to drop out of the news.

For example, in an article at SI.com entitled “Assessing managerial carousel,” Jon Heyman called out a wide variety of current skipper candidates for the numerous available openings. Heyman cited 29 names to be exact, from Tim Bogar to Tim Wallach, but not once did Oquendo’s name appear.

This article out of Seattle includes a pining for Tony La Russa in the M’s head job along with a well-organized list of known candidates for the six open spots across MLB. With new management in Seattle since his 2008 interview, Jose is not included this time, nor is his name linked with any of the other openings.

The dry spell may have changed earlier this week when Pittsburgh-focused writer John Perrotto mentioned in a Baseball Prospectus article that he expected Oquendo would receive an interview with the Pirates. I have yet to see any confirmation elsewhere, however.

Perhaps the reason “Secret Weapon’s” name hasn’t appeared in conjunction with other jobs is the assumption that he is the heir apparent to eventually replace La Russa with the Cardinals.

Another possibility is that La Russa is a mold-breaker and as such, maybe one of his closest disciples just isn’t what others want. Despite all the winning, the manager clearly has his detractors as well.

Oquendo recently received a great compliment from Marlins interim manager Edwin Rodriguez. His long-time friend and countryman achieved a milestone that Oquendo had hoped to experience himself – becoming MLB’s first manager to have been born in Puerto Rico.

“Oquendo is in Puerto Rico for Winter Ball, so I’d talk with him a lot,” Rodriguez told MLB.com. “He’s always giving me pretty good insights on how Tony would handle situations. Not only the in-game situations, but how he handled preparation, and how he handles the staff.”

So, as long as a La Russa-style strategist is wanted, Oquendo is your man. No Dave Duncan clone would be included in the deal, however.

In a two-part piece last year, I researched La Russa’s coaching staffs since his early days in Chicago and found surprisingly few that worked under Tony later became skippers in their own right.

Even the thought of Oquendo succeeding La Russa is far from a sure thing. The rumor mill has the Cardinals preferring to hire an experienced man – whenever the time to address the need arises, of course.

Speaking of which, I wonder why some are surprised that La Russa is perceived to be taking his time to tell the Cards whether or not he will accept their offer to return in 2011. For me the reason is simple – he wants to see if there is a better deal out there. After all, any contact during the season would have been considered tampering.

One year ago, La Russa announced his return on October 26. It was 16 days after St. Louis was swept by the Dodgers in the National League Division Series, though that time may have been elongated due to the controversial hiring of Mark McGwire as hitting coach, announced on the same day. It also marked La Russa’s first-ever one year contract with the Cardinals – done at the manager’s request. He is currently at 11 days and counting since the disappointing 2010 season concluded.

With Tony at age 66, less than two seasons away from reaching second on the all-time managerial wins list and being able to enjoy at least one more summer of Albert Pujols, it would all seem to signal a continuation of the marriage for a 16th year.

In the meantime, Oquendo waits for his chance, whether here or there.

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Will the Cardinals’ young outfielder play every day?

There has been a lot of discussion here and elsewhere about the ongoing Tony La Russa – Colby Rasmus saga.

Colby Rasmus (AP Photo/Jeff Roberson)Some believe the manager has not adapted to the younger player of today like Rasmus. Others, like former catcher and current team employee Mike Matheny, label La Russa as difficult for many to work for, including veterans, while still praising the skipper.

One apparent issue with Rasmus in 2010 was inconsistency. Like every aspect of the subject, there are multiple dimensions.

The player led his team in strikeouts and went through several periods during which he looked lost at the plate and performed in a sub-par manner in the outfield. The manager moved Rasmus all over the lineup and did not play him every day until the trade issue came to a head in late August.

That trade request was clearly a polarizing issue. Some believed Rasmus was spoiled, lacked toughness and should have remained quiet. Others questioned why the information was aired publicly and wondered why the clubhouse environment fostered by the manager appeared unwelcoming.

It is currently unknown if La Russa and Rasmus will be together as manager and player for the 2011 St. Louis Cardinals, but if so, I wonder if the season previews will read like the following from one decade ago.

I ran across the 2001 Cardinals outlook from Sports Illustrated. Here is what it said about the team’s talented young outfielder, a former first-round selection.

“Is this the year Tony La Russa finally lets xxx xxx play everyday? xxx has averaged only 387 at-bats in his two full major league seasons. At 25, this could be the year xxx lives up to the hype that has followed him for his entire pro career.”

Of course, Mr. X is none other than J.D. Drew, then at the same point in his career as is Rasmus today.

For the record, Rasmus has averaged 469 at-bats over his two seasons to-date and will not turn 25 years of age until next August. Still, I found the ten-year-old comment striking.

Following that quoted article, Drew played three more injury-plagued years with the Cardinals. In Buzz Bissinger’s “Three Nights in August,” La Russa was quoted as questioning Drew’s commitment and passion for the game.

As many Cardinals fans know, Drew was dealt to the Atlanta Braves with one season remaining prior to free agency, in December 2003. Among those going to St. Louis was now-ace Adam Wainwright, a core member of the team ever since 2006.

Will Rasmus become the next Cardinals long-term homegrown star or be cashed out with the hope of acquiring another Wainwright? Time will tell.

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