All posts by Brian Walton

Brian Walton runs The Cardinal Nation, covering the St. Louis Cardinals and minor league system.

Herzog back on Hall of Fame ballot


In 2010, the Baseball Hall of Fame may be welcoming several famous and successful managers from among a group nominated by a Veterans Committee. The eight former skippers include Cardinals icon Whitey Herzog.

The others are Davey Johnson, Billy Martin, Charlie Grimm, Tom Kelly, Gene Mauch, Danny Murtaugh and Steve O’Neill. This group of nominees increases to ten with the inclusion of former umpires Doug Harvey and Hank O’Day.

To get in, a candidate must receive 75% of the vote from 16 voters who are given four votes each. The winners will be announced at Baseball’s Winter Meetings on December 7 and inducted next July 25 in Cooperstown, New York.

Herzog, 78, last managed in 1990 when he resigned from the Cardinals in mid-season. Whitey has been on numerous Hall ballots before, but has always fallen short. His competition remains tough.

Career managerial stats of the eight nominated skippers sorted by win percentage with leaders in bold:

Years Wins Losses Pct League WS
Davey Johnson 14 1148 888 0.564 1 1
Steve O’Neill 14 1040 821 0.559 1 1
Billy Martin 16 1253 1013 0.553 2 1
Charlie Grimm 19 1287 1067 0.547 3 0
Danny Murtaugh 15 1115 960 0.540 2 2
Whitey Herzog 18 1281 1125 0.532 3 1
Gene Mauch 26 1902 2037 0.483 0 0
Tom Kelly 16 1140 1244 0.478 2 2

Herzog is sixth of eight in win percentage, with Johnson the leader. Whitey is tied with Grimm for the most pennants among the group with three. Murtaugh and Kelly each picked up the most world championships with two each. With 26 years, Mauch managed longest, collecting the most wins and losses, but none of his 26 clubs reached the post-season.

For more details on the nominees and voting, click here.

Are the Jays stalking the Cardinals?


It was a garden-variety transaction, easily lost among the many housekeeping kinds of moves teams make this time of year as they prepare for the free agent and Rule 5 seasons.

“The Toronto Blue Jays claimed minor league infielder Mike McCoy off waivers from the Colorado Rockies.”

St. Louis Cardinals fans probably remember McCoy, 28. During spring training 2008, he was traded by the Cardinals to the Baltimore Orioles’ Triple-A affiliate in return for future considerations.

McCoy was originally taken by the Cardinals in the 34th round of the 2002 draft. Primarily a second baseman and shortstop, the versatile right-hander is the consummate utilityman, having also played at third base as well as in the outfield and even pitched in a pinch.


In his sixth season in the Cardinals system, 2007, McCoy reached Triple-A Memphis for the first time, where he batted .247 in 239 at-bats. Overall in his Cardinals career, McCoy posted a .256/.360/.339 line in 2070 minor league ABs.


McCoy moved to Colorado in a trade in June, 2008 and re-signed with the Rockies organization this January. He hit .307 with two home runs, 52 RBIs, 102 runs and 40 steals at Triple-A Colorado Springs in 2009 and was rewarded with his first-ever promotion to the Majors on September 8.

He played winter ball in Mexico each of the last two winters, including this one. We are tracking McCoy’s results in the subscriber-only Winter Leagues Notebook on the main TheCardinalNation.com site.

But this post isn’t about McCoy as much as what he represents – another example of the high value the Toronto Blue Jays seem to place on Cardinals farmhands.

The actions began under former Toronto Blue Jays general manager J.P. Ricciardi, and are continuing under his home-grown successor, Alex Antopoulos. The new GM was quoted in Canada’s National Post as saying his team needs to rebuild again, saying they “have to be open-minded to anything.”

Apparently, that includes stocking up on former Cardinals infielders, as they grabbed second baseman Jarrett Hoffpauir off the waiver wire just last week.

Going back further, former Cardinals prospect Cody Haerther was claimed by Toronto from St. Louis two different times. The first was off waivers two years ago, only to have the Cardinals take him back when Toronto tried to clear him the next week.

Last winter, Haerther was left exposed to the Rule 5 draft on the Springfield roster, where he was again claimed by the Jays. At that point, he was not required to be placed onto the 40-man roster and remained in Toronto’s system.

It happened again one year ago when the Cardinals lost reliever Kelvin Jimenez to Toronto on another waiver claim. That time, the Jays waited two weeks to try to slip Jimenez through waivers, but the Chicago White Sox nabbed him.


The focus of the National Post article from where I extracted the Antopoulos quote above was not waiver claims, but instead the future of Jays’ ace Roy Halladay. Perhaps Ricciardi’s final failure was to dangle his 2003 Cy Young Award-winning pitcher in the trade market this summer only to pull him back.


The Canadian paper thinks Toronto is still trying to deal Halladay, who is under contract through the 2010 season at $15.75 million. Four clubs are identified as being the favorites, the Red Sox, Mets, Dodgers and Angels. St. Louis appears as the first name in the second tier, called “Possibilities”.


The writer notes the Cardinals have the financial resources to assume Halladay’s contract and he is a former teammate of Chris Carpenter. He does not mention the money tied up in the Cardinals’ top three starters, their dwindling stash of minor league trade chips nor the fact that most of the excess payroll will probably be applied to the offense, however.


While anything is possible, the idea of the Cardinals taking on Halladay seem far-fetched to me – unless the Jays would like to assume the final three years of Kyle Lohse’s contract, that is.


There is a slight precedence. The Cards saved a year in the Scott Rolen-Troy Glaus trade between the two clubs during the 2007-2008 off-season. Rolen had three years remaining at the time while Glaus had just two in his then-current deal.


The clubs are not common trade partners though. Their last deal prior to the third baseman swap was the Pat Hentgen trade in late 1999. Hentgen, like Halladay a former American League Cy Young Award winner (1996), became a Tony La Russa favorite despite playing in St. Louis just one season, 2000.


Could Halladay be next?

Brock next Cardinal to sell off collection


Continuing the theme in a year of auctions by former Cardinals greats Bob Gibson and Curt Flood, Hall of Famer Lou Brock is next in line. The legendary “baseburglar” is offering a number of his personal baseball-related items for sale this month.

Legendary Auctions, the same house that sold almost a half-million dollars worth of Gibson’s memorabilia this summer, is currently featuring a Brock collection of 78 items. Online and phone bidding begins today, Monday, November 9.

Included are at least three items directly a part of his then-record-setting 893rd stolen base in 1974 – his game jersey, the actual bag from the stolen base and the ball from that play. Brock’s 1967 championship ring, gloves, jerseys, bats, other game-used equipment items and commemorative balls are up for sale, including the one from his last hit as a major leaguer.

A really unique item is the “20” pennant that flew above the old Busch Stadium to recognize Brock’s retired number. A wide variety of different award plaques, cups and trophies are among the heirlooms to be auctioned as well as a number of oil paintings of Brock, including ones by Leroy Neiman and Flood.

Alas, not a single Brockabrella is being offered…

2009 recap of Cardinals pitchers hitting eighth

Since we have been on the theme of St. Louis Cardinals pitchers with the bat over the last few days here at TheCardinalNationblog.com, I decided to take a quick run back through an interesting sideline to the 2009 season – the pitcher hitting eighth experiment.

Todd Wellemeyer had been the first guinea pig in 2009, batting eighth on April 8, in game three of the season. Perhaps because his team was playing what turned out to be their best baseball of the year during the first month, manager Tony La Russa did not return to having his pitcher hitting eighth until May 6.

It took until mid-season for La Russa to completely convert; then he went whole hog. Pitches hit eighth in 26 consecutive games from June 22. In 29 other games prior, La Russa had inked his pitcher into the number eight spot. In other words, pitchers were in the eighth place in 54 of the first 96 lineups of the season.

Then it all changed again. Game 96 marked the final time during this past campaign in which La Russa batted his pitcher eighth. It was the fifth game post-All Star break, an 11-6 loss to Houston at Minute Maid Park. Ironically, it was a Wellemeyer start, who served as the pitcher hitting eighth bookends of 2009.

Coming into game 97, the club had not been playing particularly inspired ball. Still a few days away from the arrival of Matt Holliday, the Cardinals were sitting at 51-45 (.531), holding a precarious two game lead in the NL Central Division on July 21.

Certainly more due the presence of Holliday, Albert Pujols, Chris Carpenter and Adam Wainwright than to a change in the batting placement of the pitcher, the Cardinals went 40-26 (.606) the rest of the way.

This is not a pure, in-depth analysis. It is more quick and dirty view of how the pitchers performed as hitters before July 22 and after. As such, the pre-July 22 stats include all pitchers hitting eighth numbers along with 38 games of hitting ninth numbers.

Other than offering a better slugging mark in the later period, the hitting of the pitchers did not seem to contribute much more to the club’s final push than they did before the pitcher hitting eighth experiment ended for 2009.

Pitchers AB Hits 2B 3B HR RBI BB IBB HBP K SH SF GDP CI BA OBA Slug%
Through 7/21 196 30 5 0 1 7 5 0 2 69 21 0 1 0 0.153 0.182 0.194
7/22-10/4 140 22 6 1 2 10 4 0 1 43 14 0 1 0 0.157 0.186 0.257
2009 total 336 52 11 1 3 17 9 0 3 112 35 0 2 0 0.155 0.184 0.220

Wellemeyer takes 2009 Vicente Palacios Award


Intended only as fun, this award has been created to honor the highest level of hitting futility by a St. Louis Cardinals pitcher in a season.

To select the award’s namesake, I first had to unearth the worst yearly performance with the bat by a pitcher in team history, post-1900. Of the hundreds of Cardinals hurlers with at least 30 plate appearances in a season, only two posted a .000 OPS.

They are Vicente Palacios in 1994 and John Fulgham in 1980.

To break the apparent tie, I dove into the specifics.

In his season of futility, Fulgham, in his second of two career MLB seasons, had exactly 30 plate appearances. He had three sacrifices, therefore had only 27 official at-bats. He fanned 17 times, but managed to score once.

Palacios had 36 plate appearances in 1994 and also had three sacrifices. He struck out 15 times, but also ground into a double play. Palacios did not cross home plate.

Therefore, Palacios broke the close tie as having the worst hitting season by a Cardinals pitcher since at least 1900.

Here are the worst ten in team history, courtesy of the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia.

Rk Worst OPS pitcher Yr OPS
T1 Vicente Palacios 1994 0.000
T1 John Fulgham 1980 0.000
3 Ron Taylor 1963 0.063
4 Bob Purkey 1965 0.084
5 Jose DeLeon 1991 0.087
6 Bill Doak 1913 0.095
7 Bill Doak 1923 0.104
8 Curt Simmons 1965 0.109
9 Paul Dean 1936 0.118
10 Mike Morgan 1996 0.121

The 2009 hitting data was already presented in the earlier article, “Wainwright wins 2009 Allen Watson Award”. Todd Wellemeyer’s .256 OPS brought up the rear as the worst mark for those pitchers with at least 30 plate appearances.

Here are those who would have been the Palacios Award winners this decade. Wellemeyer’s 2009 mark would not have been worst in eight of the last ten years. Anthony Reyes‘s .154 OPS in 2007 was the lowest qualifying mark since 2000. Chris Carpenter is the only name listed twice – in 2005 and 2006.

Year Worst OPS pitcher OPS
2009 Todd Wellemeyer 0.256
2008 Kyle Lohse 0.238
2007 Anthony Reyes 0.154
2006 Chris Carpenter 0.254
2005 Chris Carpenter 0.211
2004 Jeff Suppan 0.156
2003 Jason Simontacchi 0.289
2002 Chuck Finley 0.250
2001 Dustin Hermanson 0.206
2000 Garrett Stephenson 0.162

(Brief) History of the Cardinals Allen Watson Award


Yesterday’s post announcing the Allen Watson Award of hitting excellence by a St. Louis Cardinals pitcher met with such wild, unrestrained interest, I was inspired to write part two of the story.

Because 2009 marks the first semi-official Watson Award, there actually is no history to report. Yet there are batting results from each season about which to reminisce.

Adam Wainwright is the 2009 winner, but his .515 OPS was the lowest of any annual team leader this decade. Had there been a Watson Award before now, these top-hitting pitchers would have been the annual honorees.

Year Team leader OPS
2009 Adam Wainwright 0.515
2008 Adam Wainwright 0.636
2007 Kip Wells 0.717
2006 Mark Mulder 0.880
2005 Jason Marquis 0.786
2004 Jason Marquis 0.672
2003 Woody Williams 0.670
2002 Woody Williams 0.640
2001 Woody Williams 0.619
2000 Rick Ankiel 0.674
min 30 PA

Not surprisingly, Rick Ankiel was the best hitting pitcher on the Cardinals in 2000. Once he stepped aside, first Woody Williams then Jason Marquis led the staff in OPS in each of the following five seasons.

Looking at Williams’ and Marquis’ career numbers tend to suggest there may be something to the increased focus the Cardinals put on their pitchers being able to handle the bat.

In the table below, compare the two’s OPS marks as Cardinals compared to the entire body of their respective careers, including their time with St. Louis. Each has about a 100 point edge in OPS while with the Cardinals.

Year Player OPS PA
StL Woody Williams 0.585 221
Career Woody Williams 0.489 617
StL Jason Marquis 0.646 252
Career Jason Marquis 0.518 552

Before anyone gets too excited about this phenomenon, Kyle Lohse and Chris Carpenter did not follow the trend. In all fairness, Carp only had 14 plate appearances with Toronto, though Lohse’s hitting has declined as a Cardinal.

Year Player OPS PA
StL Kyle Lohse 0.335 117
Career Kyle Lohse 0.363 230
StL Chris Carpenter 0.271 315
Career Chris Carpenter 0.277 329

The final table shows the top OPS seasons by a Cardinals pitcher post-1900 with a minimum of 30 plate appearances. Bob Forsch has three of the top ten seasons of all time, while Mark Mulder’s 2006 season was the second-best of all time. That still won’t bring Dan Haren back, however…

Rank Pitcher Year OPS
1 Allen Watson 1995 0.975
2 Mark Mulder 2006 0.880
3 Clyde Barfoot 1922 0.862
4 Curt Davis 1939 0.855
5 Bob Forsch 1987 0.842
6 Bob Forsch 1975 0.803
7 Harry Gumbert 1941 0.798
8 Al Grabowski 1930 0.788
9 Bob Forsch 1980 0.787
10 Bill Sherdel 1923 0.786
min 30 PA

Wainwright wins 2009 Allen Watson Award


Over the last month at Scout.com, we have been consumed with awards across the St. Louis Cardinals system with a new one each day and several more to go. They are the standard “best of” honors which you would expect for the best hitters and pitchers and the like. Others recognize top defenders as well.

There is one other award, currently overlooked, that deserves some special attention – the best-hitting Cardinals pitcher of the year – something I am calling the Allen Watson Award.

After all, Cardinals pitchers have taken their hitting seriously for some time, practicing together and enjoying friendly competition throughout the season. I have decided they deserve their very own award for hitting prowess.

Why name it after a seemingly-obscure pitcher who spent less than three years with the mid-1990’s Cardinals, you ask?

In the modern history of the Cardinals franchise, no pitcher with at least 30 plate appearances in a single season has posted a higher OPS than Watson’s .975 mark in 1995. That season was so extraordinary; the next closest by any other pitcher in the last 110 years was just .880.

This year’s winner of the Watson Award is Adam Wainwright. His .515 OPS was tops among the five qualifiers, those pitchers with at least 30 place appearances. All pitchers with plate appearances this season are listed for reference. Data courtesy of the Complete Baseball Encyclopedia.

Qualifiers PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Adam Wainwright 96 89 7 16 5 1 2 4 0 0 1 26 0.180 0.189 0.326 0.515
Kyle Lohse 45 37 3 8 0 0 0 2 0 0 1 7 0.216 0.275 0.216 0.491
Chris Carpenter 69 63 3 11 3 0 1 7 0 0 2 13 0.175 0.212 0.270 0.482
Joel Pineiro 79 66 4 9 2 0 0 4 1 0 4 33 0.136 0.186 0.167 0.352
Todd Wellemeyer 45 39 1 5 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 16 0.128 0.128 0.128 0.256
Non-qualifiers
John Smoltz 14 13 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 5 0.077 0.143 0.077 0.220
Mitchell Boggs 17 14 1 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 6 0.071 0.071 0.143 0.214
Brad Thompson 14 12 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 7 0.083 0.083 0.083 0.167
P.J. Walters 5 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Kyle McClellan 3 3 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Josh Kinney 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Jason Motte 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0
Clayton Mortensen 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
Blaine Boyer 1 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0

At the plate, Wainwright came on strongly in 2009 to claim this award. Two of his three two-hit games this season came in his last two regular-season starts. He doubled twice on September 26 at Colorado and collected his first career triple at Busch Stadium on October 2. Those two performances added over 100 points to his final OPS.

The 28-year-old homered twice, both solo shots. The first was off former teammate Jeff Suppan in Milwaukee on May 26 with the other at Busch Stadium against San Diego rookie Mat Latos on August 14. Wainwright was called upon to pinch hit six times this season and collected four RBI in total.

Yet a .515 OPS is not particularly impressive. 2009 is Wainwright’s worst season at the plate in his three-plus seasons as a major leaguer. In fact, his OPS has declined each year since his amazingly small sample six-PA 2006 debut.

Here’s hoping Adam is spending time in the cage this winter and the trend is reversed in 2010.

Year Player OPS PA
2009 Adam Wainwright 0.515 96
2008 Adam Wainwright 0.636 65
2007 Adam Wainwright 0.710 74
2006 Adam Wainwright 1.667 6
Career Adam Wainwright 0.637 241

New Palm Beach GM looks to grow success


Marshall Jennings
has been promoted to Assistant General Manager of Roger Dean Stadium and General Manager of the A-Advanced Florida State League Palm Beach Cardinals. Jennings reports to Joe Pinto, RDS GM and replaces Shawn Gelnett, who left during the summer.

A top-notch facility, Roger Dean Stadium houses the Florida Marlins and St. Louis Cardinals for Spring Training as well as the Jupiter Hammerheads of the Florida State League along with Palm Beach.

The Marlins first came to Roger Dean Stadium in 2002 when they replaced the Montreal Expos. The Cardinals have been there ever since the stadium’s opening in 1998, when they relocated from their long-time spring home in St. Petersburg.

The Jennings announcement alone isn’t all that noteworthy, as personnel changes in minor league clubs occur all the time. Yet this one is more interesting than most due to the individual’s background.

I don’t recall having ever seen a groundskeeper promoted to general manager before.

From the RDS website:

Marshall began working at Roger Dean Stadium in 2002 as the Assistant Facilities Manager before taking over the Facilities Manager position in October of 2003. His job is to oversee all baseball fields, grounds and landscape maintenance at Roger Dean Stadium.

Jennings arrived at RDS via Tulane University, where he was the Director of Athletic Fields. The 1999 graduate of Mississippi State University with a B.S. in Plant and Soil Science/Golf and Sport Turf Management worked at the MSU golf course in college and interned at Disney’s Wide World of Sports during the Atlanta Braves Spring Training of 1999.

In his spare time, Jennings enjoys watching baseball and football. Marshall resides in Jupiter and owns a hyperactive pug named Kramer.

Something You May Not Know: Jennings played two years of college baseball at Lambuth University in Jackson, Tenn., before transferring to Mississippi State.

Best wishes to Mr. Jennings in his new endeavor. It looks to be a good career growth assignment!

Curt Flood memorabilia auction planned


I am not a big memorabilia collector, but know many are. Coming on the heels of the recent Bob Gibson auctions, a 60-plus item collection from the late Curt Flood will be going on the block on November 14.

The items to be sold include his 1964 World Series Ring (pre-auction estimate: $15,000-$20,000), his 1963 Gold Glove Award ($5,000-$7,000), a Flood-worn Cardinals cap ($750-$1,000), several gloves ($750-$1,000), multiple Old Timers’ Day uniforms ($500-$750) and his signed 1967 contract ($750-$1,000).

A number of signed baseballs are in the collection, including ones inscribed to Flood by historical figures such as Rosa Parks ($1,000-$1,500), Muhammad Ali ($500-$750) and Willie Mays, Hank Aaron and Joe DiMaggio ($500-$750). Of course, there are multiple Flood-signed balls, too ($300-$400).

There are also the mundane, such as Flood’s wallet and its contents, including his AARP card ($300-$400), and the beautiful. The former outfielder was an accomplished artist, with one of the items for sale an exquisite oil canvas he painted of teammate Gibson ($3,000-$4,000).

The memorabilia is being brought forward by Flood’s widow, Judy Pace Flood, an actress, and is being auctioned by a company called Hunt Auctions at the Louisville Slugger Museum and Factory in Louisville, Kentucky.

Flood passed away far too soon at the age of 59 on January 20, 1997 due to throat cancer. Though he may be most known for his courageous fight to help to put an end to the reserve clause and open the doors to free agency, Flood was also a fine player. He was a three-time All-Star, won seven consecutive Gold Gloves and was a key part of the championship clubs in 1964, 1967 and 1968. At Scout.com, we ranked Flood the 19th-greatest Cardinals player of all time.

For those who want to read about Flood’s life, I highly recommend his biography, A Well-Paid Slave: Curt Flood’s Fight for Free Agency in Professional Sports, written by Brad Snyder.

Cardinals minor matters: November 1


Remember the days when you looked forward to being the first in the family to grab the Sports section from the Sunday morning paper and devour it from start to finish?

Well, perhaps you aren’t of that generation, but I was. Here in baseball’s off-season (unless you live in New York or Philadelphia), there is still a good quantity of interesting and quality writing that pops up on the traditional day of rest.

Here are a few articles of interest to me as a St. Louis Cardinals watcher.


TLR unsure on passing McGraw

With Tony La Russa home in California for the winter, the local scribes have better access and as such, are writing about him. John Shea of the San Francisco Chronicle deals softly with the manager and the Mark McGwire issue, exploring it from a risk perspective taken by La Russa as his career nears its close.

Shea suggests 2010 will be the manager’s last season in that role and asked him point blank about the importance of overtaking John McGraw for the second-most managerial wins of all time.

“La Russa is open to a front-office gig after he’s done managing. He said moving up the wins leaderboard isn’t a priority. With 2,552 wins, he needs to manage into the 2012 season to catch John McGraw (a 211-win difference). He’s nearly 1,200 behind leader Connie Mack.


“’Passing John McGraw is not everything,’ La Russa said. ‘You want to assess that fire in the gut, because it takes that fire to do the job properly. I’ve seen players skate for their final couple of years. You could see them losing the competitive edge, and they took the money because they’re going on their past. There’s a line of integrity there. I don’t want to do that.’”


What’s ahead on the labor front

The Boston Globe’s Nick Cafardo is one writer I often check out. His pieces typically indicate a greater depth of thought and seem less rushed than the many deadline-driven snippets that seem so common in today’s click-driven world.

In his Sunday column, Cafardo reviews the current status in the ongoing standoff between the Players Union and ownership. New Players Association executive director Michael Weiner, who is replacing outgoing Don Fehr next month, discusses the current concerns over contract collusion.

Further, Cafardo considers several factors that may be on the table during the next collective bargaining period. They include the length of the schedule, off days and travel days, draft pick compensation, international draft and small-market payroll subsidies.

A number of these issues need to be addressed. Here is hoping the new Weiner regime is able to work with the owners to make progress in these and other areas.


Team of the decade

Another writer whose work I care for much less is the Chicago Tribune’s Phil Rogers and it is not just because he covers the Cubs. Yet, there are times he deserves a nod. Today is one of those days.

Rogers puts forward a compact, but compelling case for the Cardinals to be labeled as MLB’s “Team of the Decade”, noting their payroll efficiency as a differentiating factor.


Bud welcoming Bonds?

William C. Rhoden of the New York Times is one of the many scribes concerned by Bud Selig’s different stance taken over McGwire compared to other accused steroids users of his era, including Barry Bonds.

“Asked about Bonds’s future in baseball if he is acquitted on perjury charges, Selig said that if a club wanted to hire him as a player or a coach, ‘I don’t think there will be an issue.’”

Bud seemed to down a healthy serving of Sunday breakfast waffles when he qualified his statement.

“’Every case is different,’ Selig said. ‘But as we move forward in the future, every case is different, that’s all I’ll say.’”

Rhoden raises what I think is a good question when he wonders why those from the steroids era aren’t dealt with in a consistent manner, welcomed back to the game. By potentially playing favorites and establishing a “double standard”, Selig risks undermining his credibility and that of Major League Baseball.


McGwire/La Russa/Selig hardliner

Boston Globe columnist Bob Ryan is representative of the many critical of the Cardinals’ hiring, coming down hard on the returning slugger/hitting coach, the manager and the commissioner.

Tony La Russa is a sad enabler, a steroid denier whose legacy is entwined with that of a cheater. At least we can understand his motivation in bringing Mark McGwire back to baseball. But Bud Selig should say no, not happening, until we hear from the man who deceived us to such an astonishing degree.


“Mark McGwire owes an explanation to the (Roger) Maris family, if no one else.”

The Pujols Hardware Count – 2008/2009


Last off-season, I was kept very busy noting each award that the St. Louis Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols collected. As the accolades collected, for awhile it seemed he was receiving one per day.

So it is again here in 2009, as the 29-year-old may have put together an even better season on the field than last.

As a refresher, by my count, Albert brought home at least ten pieces of hardware following the 2008 season, including the first one on the list, the most important of all. Pujols also won the NL MVP Award in 2005.

  • National League Most Valuable Player Award – Baseball Writers Association of America
  • Silver Slugger Award – Hillerich & Bradsby
  • Oscar Charleston Legacy Award (NL’s best player) – Negro Leagues Museum
  • Dick Schaap Memorial Player of the Year – MLB Players Alumni Association
  • National League Player of the Year Award – MLB Players Alumni Association
  • Roberto Clemente Award – MLB (pictured)
  • Players Choice Player of the Year Award – MLB Players Association
  • Players Choice NL Outstanding Player Award – MLB Players Association
  • Sporting News MLB Player of the Year
  • This Year in Baseball Hitter of the Year Award – MLB

Here is the recognition tally so far in 2009, four and counting. Three are repeats from 2008:

  • Players Choice Player of the Year Award – MLB Players Association
  • Players Choice NL Outstanding Player Award – MLB Players Association
  • Sporting News MLB Player of the Year
  • Sporting News MLB Player of the Decade

The 2009 National League Most Valuable Player Award winner will be announced on November 24.

Cardinals September call-up results


Once the final out of the Memphis Redbirds’ loss in the Triple-A Championship Game was secured on the night of September 22, the St. Louis Cardinals announced that four players would be joining the major league club the next day in Houston. Coming into the final month, the team had made it clear they would not disrupt the eventual Pacific Coast League champs if at all possible while they were still playing and lived up to their pledge.

The four promotions represent the smallest September call up total for the Cardinals in recent years and not coincidentally, it was Memphis’ first championship since 2000. With just ten games remaining in the 2009 MLB regular season by that point, there seemed little reason to add a boatload of extra players at the first city of the three-stop final road trip.


The four added are infielders Tyler Greene and David Freese (pictured), right-handed reliever Josh Kinney and catcher Matt Pagnozzi. The former three had been with the major league club during the season while Pagnozzi was first required to be placed onto the organization’s 40-man roster.

Other Memphis contributors sent home included infielder/outfielder Allen Craig, second baseman Jarrett Hoffpauir, left-handers Jaime Garcia and Royce Ring and right-hander P.J. Walters. All except Craig have MLB experience. Of them, there seemed to be the greatest fan uproar over Craig, Memphis’ top hitter for most of the season, but a player without a clear home defensively.

Given all the gnashing of teeth of these moves and non-moves, I thought it would be illustrative to look back to see how much action the four call ups actually received in their ten big league games in late September and early October.

G GS PA AB R H 2B 3B HR RBI SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Pagnozzi 6 0 5 3 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0.000 0.250 0.000 0.250
Greene 7 1 4 3 0 1 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0.333 0.500 0.333 0.833
Freese 6 1 12 12 1 7 0 0 1 5 0 0 0 4 0.583 0.583 0.833 1.417
G IP ERA PA AB H 2B 3B HR R SB CS BB SO BA OBP SLG OPS
Kinney 2 3 0.00 12 11 2 1 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0.182 0.250 0.273 0.523

As you can see, there really isn’t much to talk about. The three position players were given a total of just two starts and 21 plate appearances, 18 official at-bats.

Pagnozzi went hitless in three at-bats, though he did coax a walk and scored. Greene went 1-for-3 while Freese saw the majority of the time. The third baseman experienced feast or famine with seven hits in 12 at-bats, including a home run, five RBI, but also fanned four times.

Kinney tossed three scoreless innings, a major improvement over his 10.95 ERA coming into the call up, which had been accrued over 15 earlier outings.

With the limited amount of playing time available to these players once Memphis’ season was over, there isn’t much more to say except that Freese looked good – other than perhaps during his first professional appearance behind the plate, that is.

At this early point of the off-season, Freese is the on-paper leader to start at third base next season, while Greene and Pagnozzi could compete for reserve roles. Ditto for Kinney in the bullpen, though none of the latter three are locks to make the major league squad in the spring.

One footnote is that it was rumored that the Cardinals would have liked to find a way for Freese to join their NLDS roster, a move I had earlier predicted. However, with no injured players heading into post-season action, the club had no eligible players to be replaced by the third baseman.

McGwire, Motives and Money


I feel very odd today. The events of the last few days surrounding the return of Mark McGwire to Major League Baseball have put me in a frame of mind that I can’t recall experiencing before.

I actually feel sorry for Barry Bonds.

Bonds has been a resident of MLB’s doghouse for some time, having been placed there when news of his involvement in the BALCO case first came to light.

Like McGwire, Bonds’ defenders point out that he has never failed a test for steroids. His primary problems are in a legal area McGwire carefully chose to avoid, perjury.

Following Bonds’ record-breaking 2007 season, his contract with the San Francisco Giants expired. He made known his interest in playing the next season, yet reportedly did not receive a single contract offer.

Cardinals manager Tony La Russa is one of the few baseball officials to make public remarks in defense of Bonds the player. Though La Russa expressed interest in the outfielder joining his club for the 2008 season, nothing happened with St. Louis – or anywhere else, for that matter.

Though not proven, it was accused by some that Bonds has been blackballed from the game. Commissioner Bud Selig’s long-standing coolness toward Bonds has been well-documented.

Bonds had already broken McGwire’s single-season home run record in 2001 and in the summer of 2007 was approaching Hank Aaron’s revered top career home run total of 755. The baseball world seemed obsessed with how Selig would note the occasion.

One very strong opinion was expressed by another player once linked with steroids himself, Gary Sheffield.

“Bud Selig wants to talk about the integrity of the game? To him, the integrity of the game is how much money they make. That’s how far their integrity goes. I hope Barry not only breaks the record, but shatters it. The more homers Barry hits, the better, because that’ll really piss Bud Selig off,” Sheffield said in 2007.

Though Selig did follow the Giants for a time, he was not with the team on August 7, 2007 when Bonds hit number 756. Selig issued a statement labeling Bonds’ record “noteworthy and remarkable” and called Bonds to offer his congratulations. It was reportedly the first time the commissioner and the player still viewed by many at the time as one of the best in the game had spoken in several years. Two months later, the new career home run champ was out of work.

Ironically, Bonds broke Aaron’s record against Washington. That club’s home was the location of the infamous March, 2005 congressional hearing.

Was the real issue that day the use of steroids by individual players or the bigger picture – that the game had not moved nearly quickly or decisively enough to stop the use of PEDs during a heady time of record revenue, attendance and likely, profits?

Selig was among those in the room when McGwire personally took the highly-public and painful fall for the game of baseball’s years of inattention to a problem that was both widespread and well-known by that time.

Had McGwire talked, he could have opened a gaping wound that may have further exposed and embarrassed Selig’s grand old game. Instead, Mac took a bullet for the team.

Could gratitude over protection of his golden goose and perhaps some personal guilt over McGwire’s humiliation be guiding Selig’s very different reaction toward McGwire compared to Bonds?

If not that, what is it? Thanks for the rejuvenating effect the 1998 home run chase gave his game? All the invisible work McGwire has done for steroids awareness and prevention since his 2005 pledge to do so?

How about an even more contemporary example, baseball’s highest-paid player, Alex Rodriguez? As the world knows, this spring A-Rod was forced to admit past use of PEDs and did so, stating he used them for several years starting in 2001. Coincidentally that was Bonds’ 73-home run year and McGwire’s final season as a player.

Eight months ago, Selig said the following in reaction.

“While Alex deserves credit for publicly confronting the issue, there is no valid excuse for using such substances, and those who use them have shamed the game.”

Contrast that with Selig’s remarks this week regarding McGwire’s return.

“I have no misgivings about this at all,” Selig said. “Mark McGwire is a very, very fine man and the Cardinals are to be applauded. I give Tony La Russa a lot of credit and (Cardinals chairman) Bill DeWitt a lot of credit for making this happen. I was—and am—very supportive of their decision.”

What are the key differences?

  • A-Rod was caught and admitted guilt. McGwire was not caught and admitted nothing.

  • The first shamed the game while the second is welcomed back with no reservations.

Maybe Gary Sheffield and those who see the world like him aren’t crackpots at all.

Putting this all together, I am becoming less and less convinced that McGwire will say anything of substance (no pun intended) when he does talk. Apparently what he has done to date is just right for Selig, and that counts for an awful lot.

Cardinals fans – Watch the World Series and be thankful


As I read all the articles building up the World Series Game 1 match up between the New York Yankees and Philadelphia Phillies, I cannot help but think about how smartly the St. Louis Cardinals are run.

On Wednesday night, each league champion is sending their respective ace to the mound in the hopes of establishing an early lead in the 2009 version of the Fall Classic. A pair of former Cy Young Award winners will toe the rubber at the new Yankee Stadium, C.C. Sabathia for the home team and Cliff Lee for the visitors.

The two lefties share one distinction in that they are only the second pair of Cy Young Award winners to ever face off in Game 1, the others having been back in 1995.

For Cardinals fans however, the even more notable common thread that binds the 29-year-old Sabathia and the 31-year-old Lee is a career fate the Cardinals have avoided.

Cleveland fans must watch the pair on the world stage wearing other uniforms, despite the two having experienced their majority of their career success with a mid-market club that could no longer afford them – their own Indians.

The formula followed for each was precisely the same, just one year apart.

Sabathia took the 2007 American League Cy Young Award, but with free agency looming at the end of the 2008 season, the Tribe made Sabathia an offer that they knew would not be good enough. They had little choice but to send him off to Milwaukee for a package of prospects. He then moved to the Yankees over the winter for $161 million over seven years.

During that 2008 season, Lee exceeded his own strong past form, storming to the AL Cy Young Award. A club option for 2010 meant Lee was probably one season away from free agency. The Indians knew they had no better chance of keeping him beyond next year than they did Sabathia, so they swapped Lee to Philadelphia this July. Things had fallen apart quickly as the 97-loss Indians fully committed to a rebuilding process, just two years removed from a 96-win season.

The Cardinals don’t yet have a pair of Cy Young Award winners in their rotation, but they are very close. If Adam Wainwright edges out top contender and 2005 selection Chris Carpenter when the 2009 National League winner is announced next month, they will.

As the 2009 season began, the Cardinals had a payroll in the $88 million range, while the Tribe was at around $81 million, according to Cot’s Baseball Contracts. Yet one huge difference between the two is the Cardinals having locked up their co-aces several years back on multi-year deals that will keep them in the Birds on the Bat well into the future.

Carpenter, 34, signed a five-year, $63.5 million deal in December, 2006. Having been injured much of the first two years put the club’s decision into question by some in hindsight, yet those tears evaporated as Carp put together a spectacular comeback campaign in 2009. The Cardinals also hold a 2012 option on Carpenter’s services that will surely be picked up if he remains healthy and productive.

During last year’s spring training, then-new general manager John Mozeliak executed a masterful move, one for which he does not receive nearly enough credit. It followed an approach ironically pioneered in the 1990s by then-Cleveland GM John Hart to lock up budding stars on multi-year deals before their salaries escalate first via arbitration, then free agency. Of course, the player has to be willing.

Wainwright agreed to terms on a deal covering 2008, his three arbitration-eligible seasons, 2009, 2010 and 2011, along with a pair of team options that preclude his first two years of free agency. As a result, the now-28-year-old will likely remain in a Cardinals uniform through his best seasons, concluding with the 2013 campaign. Those six years will cost the club just $36 million in total.

As a result of this wise planning by the Cardinals front office, they can keep their co-aces pitching together for at least three more seasons, something Cleveland fans can only wish had been accomplished with their former mound stars.

So as Cardinals backers watch Wednesday night’s game, say a small thanks for the club having avoided what could have been, but will not be.

Mark McGwire: A polarizing figure


As I have scanned the numerous and varied fan and media reactions to the return of Mark McGwire to organized baseball as hitting coach of the St. Louis Cardinals, one conclusion has been reinforced – Big Mac remains a polarizing figure.

As such, his upcoming plan to speak to the media may have repercussions that could affect the perception of his entire generation.

There are some that believe McGwire needs to say no more than he already has. At the other end of the spectrum, some expect more details than McGwire may be able to give. The majority likely fall somewhere in the vast gulf between.

Below, I have characterized over a dozen different points about which I have read in the last 24 hours, with issues organized into those covering McGwire’s past and those more related to his present.

A pro/con format is used to suggest every point has a counterpoint, rather than to suggest any particular thought is right or wrong. Some believe certain points are relevant while others may see the same items as insignificant. That further illustrates the challenge represented by Mark McGwire.

Regarding the past

Pro: McGwire has been punished enough. Even under today’s rules, a positive steroids test would have been only a 50-game suspension.

Con: McGwire’s absence from the game has been self-imposed, furthered by his bungled 2005 congressional testimony.

Pro: There is no proof against him. McGwire did nothing illegal at the time.

Con: Adding to the weight of evidence against McGwire included details of usage provided by his own brother.

Pro: McGwire should not be singled out when hundreds are assumed guilty, including players on the current Cardinals team.

Con: McGwire evaded the truth. Others have apologized. Are any of them big-league coaches?

Pro: Why should McGwire try to say more when the questions will not stop?

Con: Many other players have been able to move on following apologies. Remaining in limbo will not work while being in a job in the public eye.

Pro: MLB has not banned McGwire, so why should the Cardinals?

Con: There is no ban, but strong sentiment against McGwire exists. He has yet to receive more than about 25 percent of the Hall of Fame vote, for example.

Pro: McGwire chose not to talk to Congress to protect himself and others.

Con: Why did he not follow up on his offer to educate youth against steroids?

Pro: McGwire was my favorite player and is a local hero.

Con: McGwire has a tarnished image, especially outside of St. Louis and his signing sends a bad signal to youth.

Regarding the present

Pro: McGwire was a great hitter, so he will be a great hitting coach.

Con: A number of great players have shown they cannot effectively teach others.

Pro: McGwire has worked with major league hitters informally.

Con: He has no experience as a hitting coach in organized ball.

Pro: The Cardinals need a more patient hitting style – too many strikeouts, too few walks.

Con: McGwire was a home run hitter with a below-average average.

Pro: The hiring was done to help in the efforts to re-sign Matt Holliday.

Con: Holliday didn’t fully embrace McGwire’s advice and money factors may be more important.

Pro: The move was engineered by Tony La Russa to resurrect McGwire’s national image.

Con: Even with an apology, many opinions about McGwire have been set.

Pro: Having McGwire back is a good PR move by the Cardinals.

Con: Without closure, McGwire’s presence will be an ongoing distraction for the team.

Pro: If McGwire can coach, that is all that matters. MLB hitting coaches need not be role models.

Con: McGwire needs to address the past so he can move forward.

Was McGwire good for Holliday?


One potential story line that is exciting some St. Louis Cardinals fans is the reminder of soon-to-be free agent Matt Holliday having relocated to Southern California last off-season specifically to work on his hitting with secluded former hero Mark McGwire.

The hope of some is that McGwire being hired as the Cardinals 2010 hitting coach might provide encouragement to Holliday to take a hometown discount to return to St. Louis next season and beyond.

Yahoo Sports’ Jeff Passan credits Big Mac as having been a factor in Holliday’s rise as a slugger in his days with the Colorado Rockies.

“McGwire originally suggested Holliday employ the leg kick that turned him from a gap hitter into a powerful slugger,” Passan recalls.

In fact, there were reports that in the Clint Hurdle days, the Rockies offered their major league hitting coach job to McGwire, who declined.

Yet would Holliday be as excited to have McGwire as his coach today as he was one year ago?

After their intensive winter workouts, Holliday joined the Oakland A’s, who acquired one year of his services in an off-season trade with the Rockies.

In his first spring training with the A’s, Holliday turned into a singles hitter, having just two doubles and no home runs in his 62 March at-bats.

Once the regular season opened, the problems continued. As April came to a close, Holliday was batting under .240 and had yet to go deep in the Oakland uniform. Counting spring training, the drought was 136 at-bats and 40 games before Holliday finally homered in his final April plate appearance.

By June 5, Holliday had shown slight improvement, having reached a modest total of eight home runs and a .286 batting average on the season. From that point on, he went right back into the tank. Over the next five weeks, until July 16, Holliday endured a 33-game, 121 at-bat homerless streak, the second-longest regular-season period of futility in his career.

Some were labeling Holliday a Coors Field phenom. Others said he could not handle American League pitching, which if true would surely decrease his value as a free agent, since a number of his potential targets could be deep-pocketed AL East Coast clubs.

Clearly, by the time Holliday was dealt to the Cardinals, many A’s fans were glad to see him go. Between spring and the regular season, Holliday had 11 home runs and 61 RBI in 408 Oakland at-bats and a subpar slugging mark of .436, well over 100 points under his career average.

In mid-July, something changed – an adjustment that carried Holliday through his final week with the A’s and into his initial red-hot period as a Cardinal.

Passan reminds us of media reports that it was getting away from McGwire’s winter hitting tips that enabled Holliday to rediscover his mojo and resurrect his sinking free-agent value.

“He (McGwire) also prodded Holliday this offseason to lessen the kick into a stride, which threw off Holliday’s swing for the season’s first three months.”

Taking that at face value, whatever McGwire gave, he later took away. All told, it has to make one wonder how effective Mac’s instruction really has been for Holliday.

His other reported students include the Duncan brothers, Chris and Shelley, a pair of all-or-nothing hitters trying to get back to the majors, Oakland shortstop Bobby Crosby, who lost his job because of a lack of hitting and can’t get either one back and scrappy Skip Schumaker, who hardly fits the McGwire profile. As Rick Hummel of the Post-Dispatch notes, the .263 career-hitting Mac “had just three sacrifices in his career and none in his last 10 seasons”.

I am not suggesting that Mark McGwire cannot become a good major league hitting coach. I am only noting he is unproven and his limited past track record may not be as stellar as some think.

Can the Cardinals carry an 800-pound hitting coach?


ESPN has reported on Sunday that the St. Louis Cardinals do not intend to renew the contact of 64-year-old hitting coach Hal McRae, a member of Tony La Russa’s staff for the last five seasons.

That in itself is hardly news, as the former Royals and Devil Rays manager has been on the hot seat as the team’s offense sputtered down the stretch and in the post-season despite the addition of three new, high-profile players.

What is news however, is that ESPN is labeling secluded slugger Mark McGwire as the leading replacement.

On one hand, that is not new either, as La Russa has stated on several occasions that he has tried to get his former first baseman into coaching. Yet becoming the full-time hitting coach would be light-years ahead of what appeared to be the previous target – just getting Big Mac to show up at spring training camp as a special instructor.

In fact, McGwire actually agreed to assist La Russa in spring training 2008, but had to back out at the last minute, reportedly over a family matter.

There are a number of reasons the 46-year-old McGwire would be a good and inspired choice to replace McRae.

  1. Freshness in the coaching ranks. The continuity that La Russa has fostered in his staff is admirable and a contributor to the team’s success. Yet, no turnover could lead to some stagnation. McGwire, while a long-time La Russa favorite, would clearly change that.
  2. Coaching familiarity. Though he has no formal professional coaching credentials, McGwire has worked with current Cardinals Matt Holliday and Skip Schumaker and former Redbird Chris Duncan in California in recent off-seasons. All have been very positive about the instruction given.
  3. The Holliday factor. In his evaluation of where to sign a new contract, impending free agent Holliday might give a slight increase in consideration to the Cardinals with McGwire in the dugout. I don’t want to oversell this however, as I sincerely doubt agent Scott Boras cares one way or another enough to increase the value of any “hometown discount” for Holliday’s continued services.
  4. The Pujols factor. Albert Pujols came up from the minors in spring training, 2001 and learned the ropes of being a major leaguer at the knee of McGwire, who was then starting what would be his final season. In fact, I have often wondered if Pujols hadn’t learned how to deal with the media from Big Mac, too. Then there is that not-so-little issue of Albert’s contract extension. Having McGwire around again every day surely couldn’t hurt Pujols’ feelings about the Cardinals’ commitment to win.

So, what is not to like?

It’s that 800-pound gorilla in the room – McGwire’s unwillingness to discuss the past. Those darned media types won’t let him alone. And that is the problem, a huge one.

Unless Mac deals head on with the questions that have smudged his reputation since his appearance in front of a congressional committee in March, 2005, his mere presence as a coach could turn the 2010 Cardinals into either a circus, a high-security prison camp or both.

There are two ways this could go. In their zeal to get McGwire out of hiding, the Cardinals may have decided to take the careful path – not addressing the off-field issues directly. Instead, they could decide to build an even stronger protective cocoon around McGwire than they did when he was an active player.

I think most of us can imagine what a distraction that could become and ultimately, how unsuccessful it would be.

The other way to move ahead is for McGwire to do precisely what even La Russa himself suggested this past spring – for Big Mac to provide some closure to the open questions about his past.

“I think if he came to spring training and was seen, so the writers and the fans could say, ‘There’s Mark,’ and answer whatever they want, I think that would go a long way, in my opinion,” La Russa told the New York Times in January.

It is an interesting theory that the prolonged delay on the part of La Russa to announce his return as manager for 2010 is not totally due to his own indecision, but instead to buy time to come up with a workable plan to get McGwire onto his coaching staff.

Here is hoping it is successful, but only if McGwire steps up and allows us all to move ahead.

Update: The Cardinals will be holding an 11 a.m. press conference on Monday. Subject not disclosed.

Cardinals Minor Matters: October 25


More money mess in Memphis

Those who thought the Memphis Redbirds were rescued from their financial quagmire when one operator, Blues City Baseball, was removed in favor of another, Global Spectrum, are way off base.

The maintenance and janitorial service vendor at AutoZone Park since 2006, Florida-based Diversified Maintenance Systems (DMS), filed a breach-of-contract complaint against the Memphis Redbirds Baseball Foundation. Their claim is that the Redbirds have failed to pay over $415,000 for services provided from 2006 through the end of the 2009 season, including no payments at all over the last year.

The Memphis Commerical-Appeal provides the details, including some embarrassing quotes from both the president and treasurer of the Foundation. Neither of the gentlemen in charge of the sued entity knows how much is owed DMS or any other unpaid vendors, for that matter.

If they don’t understand their own financial obligations, who does? Is there any wonder the Memphis situation is such a mess?

Like many, I was initially disappointed when the major league organization stepped away from their option to buy the team last off-season. As more and more of the years of problems that have accrued in Memphis are coming to light, the Cardinals’ wisdom is reinforced.


Mulder muddle to move to Milwaukee?

I wonder if ESPN’s Buster Olney has a hotline connected to the cell phone of former Cardinals left-hander Mark Mulder’s agent. In an ESPN Insider post, Olney notes several of Mulder’s former coaches from Oakland are now in Milwaukee, specifically manager Ken Macha and new pitching coach Rick Peterson and suggests that as an ideal 2010 landing spot for the free agent.

If Mulder’s problematic shoulder can actually allow him to pitch at the major league level anymore, the Brewers would seem to be as good a destination as any. He would look fine alongside former Cardinals Jeff Suppan and Braden Looper (though the latter’s 2010 return is not assured).

On the other hand, Olney’s perception of reality may be off ever-so slightly. He had suggested prior to the 2009 season that Mulder might be the free-agent steal of the year after throwing for scouts. Mulder didn’t even sign a contract.

As the season progressed, Mulder’s name was offered as a potential difference-maker down the stretch for a contender. Whether he didn’t receive an offer he liked or didn’t receive any offers at all, Mulder remained home in Arizona.

If Mulder would accept a non-roster invitation from someone for next spring, he would probably get a chance. After all, what team doesn’t need pitching, especially from the left side?

Still, any club that signs Mulder and pencils him into their 2010 rotation would be mighty foolish. His odds of returning to a level of past success seem to diminish with each passing year.

Olney talks of Mulder still trying to find his old arm slot, something he could not achieve with Dave Duncan in St. Louis two years ago. That search may prove to be as satisfying as the one for balloon boy.


Hill family update

The Bismarck (ND) Tribune reports on local favorite Virgil Hill’s current activities, which include training boxers and mixed martial artists. The 45-year-old also wants to fight again, “one last time”. The former world light heavyweight and cruiserweight champion works out of his New Jersey gym.

Hill also comments on the rookie season of one of his sons, Gulf Coast League Cardinals outfielder Virgil Hill, Jr. The proud papa states both his son and the organization are pleased.

“He loved it,” Hill Sr. said. “They’re very happy with him and his work ethic.”

The 20-year-old, taken in the sixth round of the June, 2009 draft, led the GCL Cards with 22 RBI, but batted just .216.

The piece ends on a more somber note as it explains the Cardinals outfielder’s younger brother, Zakary, is recovering from a broken neck incurred while playing high school football last month in Nevada.


1987 remembrance

Exactly 22 years ago, on October 25, 1987, I was one of 55,376 screaming people in attendance at the Metrodome as Minnesota won their first World Series championship at the expense of the Cardinals.

Behind the pitching of Frank Viola, the Twins prevailed by a 4-2 score in Game 7. It was the first seven-game Series in which each team won all their home games and would be the Cards’ last appearance in the October classic for almost 20 years.

Cards no better than #6 in Holliday chase?


I was catching up on some reading and read a depressing piece from SI’s Jon Heyman. It was discouraging both because of its message and that it seemed to ring true.

It was one thing to quote a friend of Matt Holliday’s saying the Cardinals soon-to-be free agent outfielder “loves the idea of going to the Yankees”. That is bad enough on its own, but it hurts even more to read where St. Louis supposedly ranks in his priority queue – somewhere south of both New York teams, the Angels and the Dodgers.

The second-hand comment about his current club is that Holliday supposedly “very much enjoyed playing in St. Louis, though, and appreciates the Cardinals’ keen interest”.

Doesn’t that sound like the prelude of the big break-up or what?

Heyman went on to rank nine contenders for Holliday’s services. The best the Cardinals could place is a weak sixth. The truth hurts.

With Scott Boras’ recent rhetoric placing Holliday in Mark Teixeira’s $180-million neighborhood as one of a pair of “blue-collar superstars”, even finishing sixth may be optimistic.

It was a nice try in 2009 for the Cardinals, but once their exclusive negotiating period ends 15 days after the World Series concludes, the sooner the Holliday charade ends, the sooner the club can move on to realistically address their 2010 holes.

Keeping Holliday no longer seems realistic.

McGwire, Pujols and “30 million-plus”


In comments given to Sporting News and reported by the St. Louis Post-Dispatch in support of Albert Pujols having been named the magazine’s 2009 Player of the Year, retired slugger Mark McGwire offered the following assessment of Pujols’ value per year if he becomes a free agent:

“30 million-plus.”

My first thought was that Big Mac must not be planning to come to work for the Cardinals as a spring training instructor any time soon. After all, Bill DeWitt, Jr. and the other members of the Cardinals ownership group probably spit out their morning coffee when reading the quote.

Obviously, the amount seems high, especially for those hoping upon hope that Pujols will accept a “hometown discount”. Then again, remember that Alex Rodriguez will be paid $32 million by the New York Yankees in each of the next two seasons and Pujols is almost five years younger.

To those who wonder if Mac might be serving as an agent for agents, priming the pump for Pujols’ representatives, the Beverly Hills Sports Council, it probably isn’t so, at least by design.

After all, McGwire was an oddity in that he did not even deploy his agent, Bob Cohen, in negotiating his final Cardinals contract. When he was ready, Big Mac simply called up DeWitt and hammered it out the old-fashioned way. McGwire knew he could have gotten more, but felt his deal was fair.

Pujols is not taking that path, instead following the common approach of deflecting discussion about his contract talks to his agents – along with placing his future in the hands of God.

As I thought about A-Rod’s money and McGwire, it reminded me of the latter’s famous 2001 interview with CNN/SI. Ironically, it was given during the first Cardinals major league spring training of a then-unknown, wearing number 68 in camp that March, Albert Pujols.

In the interview, McGwire, then the Cardinals slugging first baseman, was critical of escalating salaries in the game, affirming an earlier remark that he had been paid enough money to last “umpteen lifetimes”. He wondered aloud why others could not be satisfied with their current multi-million dollar commitments.

At the time, McGwire had just signed what would be his final deal, a below-market value contract for two years, $30 million. It wasn’t a hometown discount; instead it was an acknowledgment by McGwire that he had enough, more than enough, in fact.

I wonder how Pujols will ultimately decide how much is enough for him.

Specifically, in the 2001 interview, Big Mac demonstrated a high level of concern over the Texas Rangers’ ten-year, $252 million contract for A-Rod’s services that represented a record payday at that time.

“It’s mind-boggling. I’ve talked to a lot of veteran players and all their mouths have dropped. It set the bar very, very high. What Alex has done in the first six years, he’s going to have to do so much more to justify getting paid $20-$25 million. And I wish him nothing but the best. But just going out there and playing is not good enough. That’s not going to justify making $20 million. People are going to want to see more. And I hope he understand and realizes that’s what he’s going to have to do,” McGwire told CNN/SI.

Apparently during the intervening years, Big Mac has gotten over those concerns as he pushes Pujols’ current value, which in his view could surpass A-Rod for a new record-high annual value salary in MLB history.

When asked why he negotiated his own contract, this was McGwire’s reply in 2001:

“I think agents are starting to take over the game,” McGwire observed. “They’re starting to have more power than they should. And I’ve always told my friends that play major league baseball that you have to understand that the agent works for you, you don’t work for the agent. You, the player, make the calls, they don’t make the calls for you. And I hope more players do that. That it’s not about playing for every cent that you can get.”

Fast forwarding again eight years, it is too bad McGwire apparently hasn’t gotten the message through to his good friend and workout partner Matt Holliday. Under the direction of agent Scott Boras, the Cardinals outfielder is poised to auction his skills on the open market to the highest bidder. Yes, Boras is Rodriguez’ agent, too.

For the entire 2001 CNN/SI article, including video (RealPlayer plugin required), click on the following: “Heavy hitter – Mark McGwire speaks his mind”.

Ex-Cardinals: Where are they now? Tom Nieto and Floyd Rayford


With the Rochester Red Wings being the off-the-field parent of the Cardinals’ New York-Penn League club, the Batavia Muckdogs, I pay a bit more attention to the affairs of the Triple-A team despite its on-field affiliation with the Minnesota Twins.

The Wings, who say they are the longest continuously-operating minor league club in existence, 122 seasons, announced their new field staff for 2010. A couple of former Cardinals are in prominent roles. One is more likely to have been remembered than the other.

Former catcher Tom Nieto is the new manager of the International League club while Floyd “Sugar Bear” Rayford will be the Red Wings’ hitting coach (left and right respectively in the photo).

The 49-year-old Nieto is taking his first Triple-A managerial job after having led the Double-A New Britain Rock Cats for the Twins in 2009. He was the New York Mets’ first base coach under Willie Randolph for part of the 2008 season after having been the organization’s catching instructor the previous three seasons.

Nieto has nine prior seasons of minor league managerial experience, including seven winning campaigns and has spent the last 18 seasons in some coaching role. The clubs he led posted an aggregate 642-609 (.513) record, including three playoff appearances.

Nieto’s Twins ties are important as he was a member of their 1987 World Championship team, appearing in 41 games. Of course, we all know who they defeated in that World Series. He was also with Minnesota in 1988.

The third round pick of the Cardinals in 1981 from Oral Roberts University, Nieto first came up with the 1984 big-league club on May 10 and also played for the 1985 National League champs. The defensive specialist had five World Series at-bats with one RBI in two starts for the Cardinals versus Kansas City in 1985 before moving on to the Montreal Expos (1986), Twins and Philadelphia Phillies (1989 and 1990). His career batting average over seven partial Major League seasons was .205 with five home runs and 69 RBI in 251 games.

The Land O’Lakes, Florida resident concluded his playing days with the organization that drafted him, the Cardinals. At the age of 30, coming off rotator cuff surgery, Nieto finished with the 1991 Triple-A Louisville Redbirds, where he batted .263 in just 19 games.

Nieto began his coaching career in the Cincinnati Reds system in 1992 and spent eight years with the Yankees organization. He first returned to the bigs in 2001 when he was selected by the New York Yankees to be their Major League catching coach, serving under manager Joe Torre through the 2002 season.

At that point, Nieto returned to the Cardinals organization, managing the A-Advanced Palm Beach Cardinals of the Florida State League in 2003 and 2004. His first club limped home with a 54-84 (.391) record, worst in the 12-team league. They improved markedly the next season, finishing 73-61 (.545) in third place, four games out of first place in their division.

Rayford is moving up with Nieto from New Britain, where he was also hitting coach in 2009. As a player, his ties are deepest with the Baltimore Orioles organization, but 2010 will be his 11th season as a coach in the Twins system.

The 52-year-old made two past stops in towns that are now Cardinal country. Rayford coached for Quad City in 2000-2003 and was Batavia’s manager back in 1996 after having coached there from 1993-1995.

As a player, the third baseman/catcher came up with the Orioles in 1980 and also played there in 1982 and from 1984-1987. His best season was in 1985 when he batted .306 with 18 home runs and 48 RBI in 105 games with Baltimore. He also played parts of seven seasons in Rochester, then the O’s Triple-A home.

His Cardinals connection was a brief interruption to his otherwise entire Orioles career. Rayford’s diversion to St. Louis occurred when he was acquired in a trade for outfielder Tito Landrum in June, 1983.

Sugar Bear saw part-time duty at third base for Whitey Herzog’s Cards during the latter part of the 1983 season. He batted just .212 with three home runs and 14 RBI in 104 at-bats.

Rayford was then sold back to the O’s at the end of March, 1984, so likely his only overlap with Nieto as a player would have been during Cardinals Spring Training in 1984 before Nieto was sent down to Louisville. As coaches, 2010 will mark their second season together.

Cardinals passing up comp draft picks


In yesterday’s post, I highlighted the diminishing quantity of extra draft picks awarded the St. Louis Cardinals over the last five seasons. The total decreased by one each year, starting with their most recent high-water mark of four in the 2005 draft to the point they had none in 2009.

While the analysis showed the take in terms of results from the players selected with the extra picks were uneven and perhaps less than from the club’s regular selections in the same rounds, there is no dispute having more top players offers greater trading flexibility.

This article will look at compensation picks for which the Cardinals were eligible since 2005 and the ones they actually received, good for use in the following June’s First-Year Player Draft.

Some background first. Here we are discussing veteran (six or more years of MLB service time) free agents for whom a club has the right to offer arbitration on a one-year contract. The player has the right to accept or decline that offer.

A very high percentage of the time when offered, it is declined. Yet if offered, there is always the chance the player could accept. That would tie player and team together for another season at market price.

If the team declines to offer, then the player can sign anywhere without penalty. If the club offers and a player in the top 40 percent of his peers declines, the organization is entitled to draft pick compensation if that player agrees to terms with another team.

This latter case is our focus. Though I am not going to get into the details here, based on their performance, all players are ranked yearly into either the top 20 percent (Type A), second 20 percent (Type B) or the rest (no compensation).

The former club of a Type A free agent that was offered arbitration but declined receives two compensatory picks in the upcoming June draft when the player signs with a new team. One pick is an extra pick, called a “sandwich pick” added to the end of the first round and prior to the second, a period called the supplemental round. The other pick is taken from the new team and given to the old team, usually their first- or second-rounder.

A Type B player offered arbitration would fetch a sandwich pick only, meaning there is no real penalty to the signing team for having added the free agent.

There is another wrinkle. If an arbitration-eligible player signs with a new team before the December due date for the old team to offer arbitration, the old team receives the appropriate picks just as if they had offered the player later on.

(To be more complete, another way to secure an extra pick is in compensation for an unsigned player from the first three rounds of the previous draft. That case does not apply here.)

Ok, without further ado, here are the 17 Cardinals Type A (two picks in compensation) and Type B (one pick) free agents from the last four off-seasons.

FA Draft Player Potential Picks gained Picks gained
picks lost signed early offered arbitration
2008 2009 Russ Springer 2
Jason Isringhausen 1
Braden Looper 1
2007 2008 David Eckstein 1
Troy Percival 1
2006 2007 Jeff Suppan 2
Ronnie Belliard 2
Jeff Weaver 1
Jason Marquis 1
Preston Wilson 1
2005 2006 Matt Morris 2
Abraham Nunez 1
Mark Grudzielanek 2
Al Reyes 2
Julian Tavarez 2
Reggie Sanders 1
John Mabry 1
Four-year total 18 2 4

The 17 players represent a maximum of 24 possible draft picks. Only six of those compensatory picks, or one-fourth of them, were actually received by the Cardinals, having been collected from four of the 17 players. The Cards declined to offer arbitration to the other 13.

Even if the Cardinals had wanted to capture the maximum number of picks possible, some of the players might have accepted their offer and remained with the team. In that case, the club would not have received compensatory selections for those players and potentially been stuck with players they did not want.

In several other cases, however, the Cardinals left almost sure picks on the table by not offering arbitration for a player obviously leaving. This is consistent with the organization’s stated philosophy of not offering players unless they were wanted to return.

A prime example was former starting pitcher Jason Marquis. There seemed no way Marquis would have accepted an arbitration offer to return to the Cardinals for 2007 after the problems that culminated in him being left off the 2006 playoff rosters. The sandwich pick the Cardinals would have received had they offered and Marquis not accepted would have been a “free” one, not taken away from the signing team (the Cubs, who signed him for three years, $21 million).

In other cases, the Cardinals may have avoided offering a marginal Type A player because it would have diminished his value in the open market. A possible example is Ronnie Belliard. After having joined the Cardinals late in the 2006 season, the second baseman was declared a Type A. Few if any clubs would have forfeited their first or second-round pick in the 2007 draft just to sign a role player like Belliard.

Finally, there were a few players the Cardinals probably should have offered in the hope the player would accept and remain with the club. A glaring example is right-handed reliever Russ Springer (pictured). Despite having been very effective out of the pen during the prior two seasons, Springer was told prior to 2009 that the Cardinals wanted to get younger. 12 months later, one of the team’s reported priorities is to acquire – you guessed it – another veteran righty for the pen.

In two of the four cases in which they received comp picks, the Cardinals had no control over receiving those selections. Both Al Reyes (2005) and Troy Percival (2007) signed with their new clubs early. That gave the Cardinals two picks, whether they wanted them or not.

We know for sure only that the Cardinals wanted two of the 17 to come back, Matt Morris (2005) and Jeff Suppan (2006). In other words, they were the only two actually offered arbitration and each declined. When the two signed with San Francisco and Milwaukee respectively, St. Louis was awarded a total of four picks.

The Elias Rankings which define the Type status of all players, including free agents, are traditionally released near the end of the World Series. At that point, we will know what compensation, if any, the Cardinals’ nine 2009-2010 free agents may fetch – but only if they sign elsewhere early or arbitration is offered, that is.

Checking Cardinals early draft pick return


One of the many possible explanations suggested for the downturn in fortunes across the St. Louis Cardinals minor league system in 2009 was a dearth of extra draft selections in the early rounds of the most recent drafts.

With fewer elite players, the logic goes, there is no surprise the system did not perform as well as expected.

I decided to probe this. While there is no way to directly tie results on the field to players drafted, we can compare the Cardinals recent compensation picks to their overall early-round selections.

First, a bit of background. These extra or compensatory selections are awarded to a club in return for having lost a player due to free agency. They can either be extra selections, tacked onto the end of a round, called a supplemental round, or they can be picks taken away from another organization.

Because comp picks are in the first two rounds of the draft, that will be the comparison population. I have gone back over the last six drafts, to 2005. The club received no extra picks between 2001 and 2004, anyway.

The table that follows shows the Cardinals’ 20 picks over the initial two rounds during this time period, in what turns out to have been a very symmetrical ten and ten, respectively. On the left are the regular selections and on the right are the compensatory picks.

In the “Comp” column, when the pick was an extra one, the departing player’s name is noted in parentheses. When the pick was taken from another club, that team’s name is listed.

Year Rd Pick Score Departed Rd Comp Pick Score Departed
2009 1 Shelby Miller flat
2 Robert Stock flat
2008 1 Brett Wallace boom trade 1s (Percival) Lance Lynn boom
2 Shane Peterson flat trade
2007 1 Pete Kozma flat 1s (Suppan) Clayton Mortensen boom trade
2 Jess Todd boom trade 2 Milwaukee David Kopp bust
2006 1 Adam Ottavino flat 1s (Morris) Chris Perez boom trade
2 Jon Jay flat 2 Giants Brad Furnish bust
2s (Nunez) Mark Hamilton flat
2005 1 Tyler Greene flat 1 Red Sox Colby Rasmus boom
2 Nick Webber bust release 1s (Renteria) Mark McCormick bust
1s (Matheny) Tyler Herron bust release
2 Giants Josh Wilson bust retire

The first thing to note is how the number of comp picks dropped each year from 2005 through 2009 in a linear manner, from four to three to two to one to none this past summer.

The number of comp picks each year is in direct result to the rate at which the Cardinals either offer or do not offer arbitration to departing free agents. This is a subject to which I will return in a future post.

Another point that stands out is that eight of the Cardinals 20 top picks from the last five years are no longer in the organization. Five are gone due to trades, two of whom were originally comp picks, while the other three departees represent picks that did not pan out.

You have noted I devised a very simple and subjective measurement system to score each pick. As such, my scores are both debatable and changeable over time. They are:

Boom – player has either reached the majors or is ahead of pace to do so

Flat – player has neither excelled nor failed – jury is still out

Bust – player has not achieved his potential

Here is a scorecard of the picks by category. Note that there have been both more “booms” and “busts” from the extra picks, while the regular selections are mostly still in limbo.

Reg picks Extra picks Total Departed Remaining
boom 2 4 6 4 2
flat 7 1 8 1 7
bust 1 5 6 3 3

A quick summary by year:

2009 – The top two picks have not played enough professional ball to assess their futures.

2008 – Lance Lynn and Brett Wallace have been solid and advanced quickly, while Shane Peterson leveled off in Double-A this year. Of course, the latter two are now part of the Oakland A’s system due to the Matt Holliday trade.

2007 – Both Jess Todd and Clayton Mortensen reached the majors rapidly, though both have been since dealt away. Pete Kozma’s breakout has yet to occur while David Kopp cannot remain healthy and finished the season back in A ball. The latter two still can raise their scores, though.

2006 – Chris Perez was a boom, but is also gone. College draftees Adam Ottavino, Jon Jay and Mark Hamilton did make Triple-A in their fourth seasons, but the jury remains out on their major league futures. Brad Furnish hasn’t mastered Double-A.

2005 – Colby Rasmus is obviously the cream of the crop. Tyler Greene reached the majors briefly in his fifth season, but has been a disappointment overall. The other four picks have not delivered, with three already gone from the organization and the fourth, Mark McCormick, perpetually injured.

As I have noted in other posts, I firmly believe the 2005 draft has been the overriding difference-maker for the rise in stature of the Cardinals system. This data reaffirms that other than Rasmus, the keys from 2005 were players taken in later rounds, not the extra picks they had that draft year.

boom flat bust
2009 0 2 0
2008 2 1 0
2007 2 1 1
2006 1 3 1
2005 1 1 4
total 6 8 6

In closing, certainly the extra picks the Cardinals enjoyed in recent years gave them a larger population of top players. So far, it has equated to additional trade fodder more than anything else.

It remains to be seen if the regular picks turn out to be a better group of players overall compared to the comp picks, but there seems to be considerably more remaining potential there.

More on La Russa’s future


Living in the Bay Area and having managed there with Oakland, it is only logical that Tony La Russa has many local media contacts. As such, he granted a phone interview to the San Francisco Chronicle, portions of which appeared in a Sunday article there.

La Russa reiterated an earlier contention that he does not plan to manage indefinitely. Following is his quote.

“When you get to the end of the year, you’re a little beat up and want to make a decision with as clear a head as you can,” he said by telephone in the wake of the stunning three-game loss to the Dodgers in the Division Series. “I told them I wouldn’t take forever. At some point, sooner rather than later, I’m going to do something else in baseball. Thirty years (as a manager) is a long time.”

Upon questioning, La Russa made it clear he was not contacted by the Giants before they re-hired manager Bruce Bochy and reiterated an earlier declaration that St. Louis will be his final managerial stop.

“No,” he said. “We just ended. I just had a meeting with owners and the front office. My hesitation to return has nothing to do with going someplace else.”

Chicagoans hoping for a managerial upgrade will be crying in their Old Style as a result. Also on Sunday, the Chicago Tribune’s Phil Rogers hoped that with the announcements by La Russa’s contemporaries Joe Torre, Bobby Cox and Lou Piniella that they plan to stop managing after next season, La Russa might take a one-year deal with St. Louis and jump ship in 12 months.

Nor would La Russa sit out for a season and come back elsewhere in 2010. In the San Francisco interview, he said he would not take a year off, like some other managers have done between assignments. That has spared us all from the potential of a year of La Russa in the television analyst’s chair or the like.

“When I go, I go,” La Russa said.

The article concluded with La Russa indicating a desire to remain in the game after retirement from managing. The writer’s speculation immediately zeroed in on La Russa moving to a front office job, potentially as a general manager. This idea has been floated by others in the past.

While I agree that La Russa has the credentials, I disagree in that I seriously question whether the 65-year-old would enjoy the position after 30 years of being in control in the dugout. In addition, general manager is hardly a retirement job, with considerable demands of its own and no defined off-season to rest and recharge.

All indications remain that we won’t know what La Russa’s next job will be for another year or two once his expected decision to return to St. Louis in 2010 and perhaps longer is announced.

On Holliday’s protection of Pujols


In the aftermath of his devastating error with two out in the ninth inning in the Cardinals-Dodgers National League Division Series game two, the future of soon-to-be free agent outfielder Matt Holliday remains one of the hottest debate topics across Cardinal Nation.

Assertions have been made here and elsewhere that he should not be re-signed by the Cardinals, despite his many contributions after having been acquired from Oakland on July 24.

One reason cited is that Holliday was a failure in what has been viewed by some as his primary role – protection for Albert Pujols in the middle of the Cardinals lineup.

Certainly that was the case in the NLDS, as Dodgers manager Joe Torre made a cognizant and obvious decision to not pitch to Pujols in any run-producing situation. As a result, Albert was issued three intentional walks in games one and two.

The clear reason for it was that heading into the DS, Holliday was not hitting well. Despite hitting 24 home runs on the season, the outfielder had just one after September 8. Holliday did connect for a solo shot in game two, but that was his only RBI of the series.

He batted just 2-for-12 (.167) in the three losses, and did not immediately atone for his game two gaffe. In Saturday’s season-ending game three, Holliday went 0-for-4 with three left on base.

This occurred despite the fact that Holliday was already October-proven. In the Rockies’ 2007 run to the World Series, Holliday had a very good postseason. His line in 11 games was .289/.319/.622 and included five home runs and 10 RBI.

Interestingly, during the 2009 regular season, the Cardinals faced the Dodgers seven times in August and won five of those games. All occurred after the Holliday trade. In those games, Torre issued one free pass to Pujols, but had his pitchers intentionally walk Holliday twice.

Not surprisingly, all seven games occurred during Holliday’s first 24 contests with the Cardinals. During that honeymoon period, he was absolutely blistering the baseball and consequently, Torre had his pitchers treat Holliday with kid gloves.

Torre wasn’t alone, as the NL as a whole gave Pujols far more opportunities to hit after Holliday’s arrival than prior. Here are the specifics of Pujols’ regular season intentional bases on balls (IBB) before July 24 and after:

Pujols’ IBB before Holliday: 34 in 411 PA = 1 per 12.1 plate appearances
Pujols’ IBB with Holliday: 10 in 289 PA = 1 per 28.9 plate appearances

In other words, the rate of Pujols’ intentional walks was more than cut in half once Holliday was batting behind him. That clearly demonstrates that the league as a whole respected the presence of Holliday.

It is surely fair to wonder why Pujols couldn’t do more with his greater opportunities to hit the ball, but his second half of the 2009 season is a different question for a different day.

If Holliday returns to the Cardinals, there is no reason to suspect the behavior exhibited by opposing managers and pitchers in 2009 would not continue in 2010 – as long as he is more consistent with the bat than he showed in his first few months as a Cardinal.


NLCS Footnote
: The walk-a-thon continued in the NLCS as the Dodgers issued seven free passes in their game one loss to the Phillies. Not surprisingly, the 2-3-4 hitters received four, including two to Philly’s version of Pujols, number three hitter Ryan Howard. How much of that was by design and how much was due to the Ankiel-like wildness of 21-year-old lefty Clayton Kershaw is a fair question.

The Phils received just one free pass in game two, but Howard went deep for their only run. As such, I would expect Torre to have his hurlers pitch to the slugger more carefully the rest of the way.

How aggressive have Cardinals minor league player movements really been?


“Aggressive player movement” is a phrase so commonly and casually thrown around in discussions of the St. Louis Cardinals minor league organization over the last few years that it is has become accepted as fact my many.

What does it really mean?

The words denote upward opportunity in the system addressed by promotions of players before more traditional and conservative measures of player evaluation may deem them ready. These openings might occur most often due to others’ injuries or departure from the organization due to poor performance or trades.

The subject came up right here recently in the context of evaluating the reasons why the Cardinals system dropped off in team wins and individual player recognition in 2009. Injuries, trades and aggressive player movement were each offered as theories for the slide in system-wide won-loss records as well as fewer all-star and best-of type selections.

How might player movement be measured?

After some thought and discussion, I am offering a method to determine how aggressive player movements within a season actually were – without undertaking the impossible task of accurately recreating and counting every individual transaction across the entire minor league system over multiple past seasons.

The data and the conclusions to be drawn from the process can either support or refute the perception of player movement having been a substantive factor in the system’s performance in a given year.

There are a finite number of active roster spots on every club. Each season at each level, some number of players suit up. This total will exceed the number of roster spots and system-wide, even the quantity of players under contract. This “double-counting” is entirely due to player movement between levels.

We can understand the comparative volume of player movement during a season simply by totaling the number of players that appeared on each roster up and down the system each year. Differences in the cross-system totals across years illustrate the relative quantity of player movement by season whether up or down.

To that end, I tallied the number of players that collected stats at the top six levels of the Cardinals system each season since 2004. I then calculated the year-to-year differences and the six-year average. With the methodology the same each year, these annual comparisons are completely valid, in my opinion.

Addressing potential questions

Knowing some will question the validity of the data simply because of the conclusions that can be drawn will make them feel uncomfortable, I decided to address several expected objections right up front.

First is the impact of rehab stints. When players from a higher level are in the recovery process from an injury, they often begin their playing return at a lower level of competition. This especially affects the Florida teams as many players that are not a true prospect at that level come and go during the season.

I addressed this by running two sets of numbers. The first includes all players that suited up while the second encompasses only those that saw ten or more games of action at that level. That factors out all those that did not accrue substantial playing time.

I can see why the smaller group might offer the reader a greater level of comfort with the data, but as you will see below, it doesn’t change the relative comparisons or the conclusions.

Here are the numbers:

Top six levels 6-Yr Avg 2009 YTY 2008 YTY 2007 YTY 2006 YTY 2005 YTY 2004
Players >10 G 223 228 -8 236 16 220 2 218 -9 227 17 210
All players 294 294 -9 303 13 290 17 273 -37 310 16 294

Another question might arise regarding the impact of the Cardinals Gulf Coast League affiliate. This creation of this new level in the system, added three seasons ago, might somehow alter the representation of this supposed aggressive player movement, I expect some will claim.

To deal with that potential concern up front, for the three years since the GCL team began, I ran the data for the top seven levels of the system in both flavors, with all players and excluding the under-ten games played subset.

Here are those stats:

Including GCL 3-Yr Avg 2009 YTY 2008 YTY 2007
Players >10 G 257 256 -9 265 15 250
All players 349 348 -4 352 6 346

The conclusions remain the same:

  • In 2009, in-season player movement across the Cardinals system was LESS aggressive than in 2008, despite the supposed high level of injuries, trades and the like this past season.
  • The 2009 level of movement was basically right on the system-wide six-year average (without GCL) and the three-year average since the GCL team began.

  • The results do not substantively change when the under-ten games players at each level are removed.

I close with this final observation:

  • 2008 was the only recent year in which in-season minor league player movement was significantly higher than average. Yet that was also the year during this period when the Cardinals system posted their best collective won-loss record.

Might that mean more roster churn is good?

Certainly that is not the case unless the players being called upon to step up are actually ready to produce. Despite an average number of in-season moves, the Cardinals system as a whole delivered below-.500 results in 2009.

That is fact.

Might the Cardinals let Holliday and Boras pull a “Drew” on them?


Here is the environment. The St. Louis Cardinals want Matt Holliday back. All indications are that the outfielder and his agent Scott Boras are heading out into the open market. Boras has made rumblings that he is looking for a Mark Teixeira-kind of contract.

Last winter, the first baseman signed with the Yankees for eight-years, $180 million. That may be a neighborhood in which the Cardinals would not want to live, especially with an Albert Pujols extension that looms even larger still in the planning stages.

From the Cardinals perspective, their direction for next two years seems clear, but things get fuzzy after that. Pujols, who may not be motivated to sign a new offer any time soon, has two years remaining on his current deal.

What happens after 2011?

Manager Tony La Russa is not under contract for 2010, but is expected to return. For at least the last 20 years, he has always signed either two or three-year deals. A new two-year commitment would take La Russa through 2011, like Pujols.

Chris Carpenter is also locked up through 2011, though the club holds a 2012 option. Early in the 2012 season, the ace will turn 37 and has a history of physical problems. Ryan Ludwick will be first-time free agent eligible following the 2011 season, as well.

No matter what happens, the Cardinals 2012 cupboard should not be entirely bare, however. Catcher Yadier Molina and emerging co-ace Adam Wainwright should be around through at least 2012 and 2013, respectively.

Still, in deciding whether or not to sign with St. Louis, could Holliday have concerns about the club’s competitiveness following the 2011 season? Though he would likely never settle for a two-year deal only, there is another possibility – build an early out into a longer-term contract.

It is a strategy Boras has used to his advantage in the recent past.

Boras clients and opting out

During the 2007 World Series, the agent announced that Alex Rodriguez was opting out of his contract with the Yankees due to concerns over the club’s future direction. Of course, it was merely a negotiating ploy to get the New Yorkers to pay more for A-Rod’s services.

It worked to the tune of ten years, $275 million, a new MLB record. It eclipsed Rodriguez’ own ten-year, $252 million deal signed with Texas, of which he completed seven years before tearing it up and starting over.

A year earlier, Boras left the Dodgers high and dry when he sold high on former Cardinals outfielder J.D. Drew. Having led Los Angeles with 100 RBI in 2006, Drew then bailed out of the final three years, $33 million remaining on his five-year, $55 million Dodgers contract.

Dodgers general manager Ned Colletti was understandably angry, stating that Drew had “changed his word”. He also noted that Boras never asked for Drew’s contract to be re-negotiated before they bolted onto the open market.

A free agent again as he was two years earlier, Drew re-emerged as a member of the Boston Red Sox. His new deal was for five years, $70 million.

I have often wondered if Boras’ and Manny Ramirez’ shady act to get Manny out of Boston and into a Dodger uniform wasn’t some kind of payback for the Drew escapade. Even if not, every new contract means a bigger cut for the agent. He never loses – he just wins less on rare occasions.

But back to Holliday and the Cardinals.

Could the wishes of the player, his agent and the club come together to enable a four-, five- or even six-year contract with an out after just two years? Why not?

The slippery slope

If the Cards gave such a deal to Holliday, why would not Albert Pujols expect the same kind of structure? After all, Pujols has been the most vocal of Cardinals players about wanting to ensure the organization fields a competitive team on an ongoing basis.

In fact, maybe Holiday and Pujols could time their perpetual two-year outs to align, regularly holding a pair of big guns to the heads of Cardinals ownership to keep the team strong – or else! La Russa could hang with the bi-annual plan as long as cares to, as well.