photo: Carson Kelly (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)
The depth in the catching ranks in the St. Louis Cardinals system will be tested with Yadier Molina’s injury. Next up is prospect Carson Kelly.
The time has arrived to end the speculation – does Carson Kelly have what it takes to become a starting catcher in the Major Leagues?
I’ve had a long-running debate about Kelly with a prominent member of The Cardinal Nation’s message board community. The poster is convinced that the St. Louis Cardinals front office “screwed up big time” in how they handled their top prospect catcher, especially given the three-year contract extension given to likely future Hall of Famer Yadier Molina that runs through 2020.
I have consistently disagreed, placing more value on development and depth than cashing in trade chips in the short term.
Maintaining that organizational depth has quickly proven to be important as it took barely a month into the 2018 season before Molina went down. Fortunately, it was not another concussion, yet it is serious.
With Molina’s emergency surgery Saturday evening for what is officially being called a pelvic injury with traumatic hematoma, it appears Kelly will be St. Louis’ starting catcher for at least the next month (assuming his name is regularly written onto the lineup card).
It is unquestionably a tall order to fill. While Molina’s contributions behind the plate are legendary, he was off to a strong start to 2018 offensively, as well.
The way I look at it, the Cards were very wise to not trade Kelly this past off-season and they were wise to send him to Memphis to play every day to open 2018. I do admit that I was surprised as many that Kelly played himself off the St. Louis roster this spring, though. The clear conclusion is that he was not yet a finished prospect and could in fact benefit from additional minor league seasoning.
Now, Kelly is needed in St. Louis. This will his big test. He cannot be any more prepared. The 23-year old has been in the Redbirds lineup most days and is not in a position to have to shake off weeks of rust.
Kelly has logged over 2,250 career minor league plate appearances since his second-round selection in the 2012 draft as a prep third baseman from Oregon. Most recently, he has caught 121 games at Triple-A since first reaching the level in 2016 (plus 44 more with St. Louis).
Questions do remain, however. The right-handed batter’s offense for Memphis this season to date has not been up to expectations, as evidenced by his .234 batting average. However, there are positive signs, as well. Kelly has drawn 11 walks against 14 strikeouts, adding 103 points for a more respectable .337 OBP. Six of his 18 hits went for extra bases, leading to a .364 SLG and .701 OPS. He has been somewhat unlucky with a BABIP (batting average on balls in play) of .262. All told, the numbers are neither great nor embarrassing.
St. Louis needs him and Kelly’s career is at a major inflection point, as well.
If he succeeds, his value will only go up. And if he fails, the Cardinals will have learned what they needed to know. Further guessing or projecting should not be needed about what to expect from him as a major leaguer.
Personally, I believe determining Kelly’s ability to contribute at the MLB level is far more important than trying to maximize his trade value. The bottom line as I see it is for St. Louis to win as many games as possible in 2018, and if Kelly can contribute to that end, his value will be established.
And if not, then there is always the next man in line. Among catchers, the Cardinals are fortunate, as Andrew Knizner is another good-looking prospect. The backlog ahead of him meant that Springfield’s catcher had to return to Double-A to open 2018, and he has been hitting up a storm. The 23-year old is second in the Texas League with his .385 average and has also drawn more walks than strikeouts.
Knizner, who like Kelly is a top-10 prospect in the system, should also be a beneficiary of Molina’s injury, with what should be his first opportunity to show what he can do at Triple-A.
So, this next month will be very important for all three Cardinals catchers.
Update
The Cardinals have surprisingly decided to leave Knizner at Springfield, promoting catcher Jesse Jenner to Memphis from extended spring training instead, per a Sunday morning report from TCN’s Derek Shore.
Since joining the Cardinals system in 2015, Jenner has been deployed as a rarely-used injury fill-in at various levels, never having appeared in more than 52 games in a season. The 24-year old played in 37 games in 2017, all but one at Springfield.
As a result, the high-flying Triple-A Redbirds will have Jenner along with .194-hitting Steven Baron behind the plate. The 27-year old Baron joined the organization during the off-season as a minor league free agent after nine years in the Seattle system.
Knizner will have to wait.
One negative on Knizner’s 2018 ledger is that opposing baserunners have been successful in 17 stolen base attempts in 19 tries. In contrast, he threw out 45.1 percent on runners trying to steal in 2017. Perhaps his defense is what is holding him back. To increase his versatility, Knizner will also continue to play first base on occasion.
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Brian Walton can be reached via email at brian@thecardinalnation.com. Follow Brian on Twitter.
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