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There have been so many comments suggesting some different trade chips this winter. Many are looking to get back a stockpile of prospects to build for the future.
I’ve come to terms with the Cards being 5 or 6 years away from being WS timber, and that’s on the very
positive side. In the meantime, I don’t relish the thought of the team becoming the dregs of MLB. Is that a concern to others?The main question here is how many years, if any, do you plan on giving the team a pass on performance/lack of, in order to become at least a division winner? I’m feeling like there are different tolerance levels.
2022 Arizona goes 74-88
2023 Arizona wins the N.L. pennant
2024 Toronto finishes last in the A.L. East
2025 Toronto wins the A.L. pennantThese are extreme examples to be sure, but I think mediocre MLB teams are almost always closer to excellence than they appear; fans are easily benumbed by repeated losing and begin to believe the talent isn’t there. Anyway, after three straight years without October baseball, my patience has already run out.
Even with a poor manager, a poor pitching coach, and a poor hitting coach who cost the team 5-6 wins in 2025 all by himself, I feel the club can be a true talent 90-win team in 2027. Or with a legitimate, average manager/staff, it could happen immediately — because the vast majority of the hitters & pitchers are on the good side of the aging curve.
I agree with Bob that the team can be good in 27. Take 26 to build a talent pipeline and tweak the ML roster to actually consider roster design. The 25 roster behind talent was just horrible in construction with a lot of redundancies and this need to be resolved and flipped for a pitching overhaul.
Teams that plan on being good in 3 or 4 years perpetually stay in that state as they have a losing culture and so many things have to go right prospect development wise to make a winning team.
What about a team that plans to be good 2 years from now? All of the NTC money will be off the books by 2028. Clean slate.
2026- 72 wins
2027- 82 wins
2028- 92 wins2027-2028 depends on how the close to the top prospects pan out. It also depends on how acquisitions pan out. A lot has to go right for the team to contend for the Division in the next few years. That is how it will be until we see if the system can produce impact players. Bill is done buying the MOTO and top of rotation. We will produce it, or we won’t have it. And if we don’t have it, we won’t contend.
They have slashed payroll in the last 2 years nearly $80 million plus, it really depends are they just going to hover at or below $100 million or are they going to spend some money at some point on some key players.
They have a lot of needs, especially a front of the rotation Starting Pitcher and at minimum 2 OF’s that can hit consistently….they will need an infield bat if they ship Donovan
I think it’s completely unknown. 2026 doesn’t look to be all that great, but it might surprise a little and end at 80 or so wins. And it may fail entirely and the team only wins about 70. But 2027 is such an unknown at this point. 2 free agent or trade acquisitions and a couple good development guys and this could be a great playoff team in 2027. It could also be a 6-year losing cycle. It’s so impossible to project right now because so much is in flux. We have so many pitchers coming off injuries. If 2 pan out, that changes so much. We also have so many new pitchers. If 2 of those pan out, that also changes so much. If Walker or Gorman learns to hit or if either of the Baez’s hit well at the MLB level, that changes so much. On the other hand, every one of these players may fail.
I do like what is happening. Cash in on Contreras and Gray before age takes them down. Invest heavily in developing players so we can better and more cheaply field a team of the future and so we can trade good prospects who are redundant for major league talent to fill what we do need. We are investing heavily in the most valuable position – starting pitcher. Those cost a lot on the market and are worth a lot in trades. It’s smart.
It’s already been 6 seasons without a NLCS series. I’m tired of waiting already. Lets get on with it.
I’ve come to terms with the Cards being 5 or 6 years away from being WS timber, and that’s on the very positive side.
I’ll give you ’26, but in this day and age when teams can do a Dr. Jekyll & Mr. Hyde at the drop of a hat, our Birds could conceivably take flight again in just 2 years.
Even though we Cardinal fans won’t be doing any magic number countdowns, I think this coming season may be quite fun. A few of these youngsters are going to be pleasant surprises. I’m much more exited about this coming year’s Spring Training than I was going into this past year’s ST.
I’m still doing some thinking through everything. Right now, as the team stands with the players on the roster today, I see the ‘26 version to be just slightly worse than the ‘25 team. There’s more that will go into it (and I may or may not write about it again this year), but in general, I have the starting rotation as slightly improved, the bullpen as slightly worse although with many unknowns, the offense as slightly worse, and the defense as similar if not slightly improved.
I find I am working up some interest in the concept of a team rebuild scenario without substantial contracts, where on field performance can potentially dictate roster decisions and who plays.
I do like what is happening.
Me too. We are a couple moves away from completing the much overdue roster shuffle. And we have done it in the right way-looking to the future. I will watch with much more intrest in 26. Yes there are a ton of unanswered questions. But I at least believe Bloom has a plan to pivot from whatever problems need to be rectified. And all this heavy lifting of restructuring the roster won’t be necessary going into 27′. I would expect them to be ready to fix the holes with a combination of ml ready talent from their system, trades, and fa. I think moderate spending for the 27 season will be an option as long as the cba is settled.
I think its the old landscape saying for new plants: sleep, creep, and leap over 3:years.
’26 probably pretty rough, ’27 better and we can see it coming together, ’28 win the division and be an actual sustainable contender.
Now, all of this depends on Bloom being good and pushing the right buttons…
Bill is done buying the MOTO and top of rotation. We will produce it, or we won’t have it. And if we don’t have it, we won’t contend.
They have slashed payroll in the last 2 years nearly $80 million plus, it really depends are they just going to hover at or below $100 million or are they going to spend some money at some point on some key players.
Only two references to the main reason we are where we are today. BDW needs to show some interest in spending some money on his team for it to improve. There are 29 other teams looking to improve. What might make someone believe that STL will be competitive in the FA signings list. Sure the team could turn around quickly but there has to be a commitment from the owner. Do you think that we have that sort of owner? My belief is that solid improvement rests on his shoulders. And while we are here…. why do I have the feeling that, in general, players are now avoiding STL?
ps…. IMO Mozeliak got a free skate from the reason the team has been a state of malaise for the last …….(fill in the blank) years. I’m going back to the day he signed Dexter Fowler….. the blunder of the century and the day I stopped respecting him. Merry Christmas Bowtie. More coal for you this year.
I don’t relish the thought of the team becoming the dregs of MLB. Is that a concern to others?
Yes
The main question here is how many years, if any, do you plan on giving the team a pass on performance/lack of, in order to become at least a division winner?
I can’t support a billionaire chasing welfare dollars instead of trying to win a championship.
I dont really have a set year in mind. I wont really think seriously about it til we get a really good rotation that only requires the team to go out and get maybe one or two really good pitchers to compete for a world series, thats assuming our offensive talent comes through. Im more interested in the pipeline from the minors to the mlb. If that greatly improves,ill be optimistic success as i define it will be right around the corner. My guess is about 3 to 5 seasons. Im fine with that.
The ownership has Bloom for a reason. To save them some money in the current and revamp this farm system. It will be interesting to see if they team suddenly shows potential past an 82-84 win teama if they indeed extend players early and throw money into some free agency. I think part of is they are a little gunshy based on some financial constraints based on the revenue streams and attendance issue.
Either with the Donnie, Jojo, Noot, etc trades. The adding draft picks is very important to try and find those next middle of the order bats.
Herrera, Burly and likely JJW are great, but not 30+ HR guys, and you need one or two of those in my opinion.
Picks 13 and 32 really need to be college power hitters, “don’t draft for need” is thrown out after all of the pitching that has and likely will continue to be added.Adding a pick also increases pool money/aka flexibility, which is just as important as the pick perhaps…..
I saw this but with travel and Christmas stuff, just now am getting to respond…
My full expectation is that the team will compete hard and that all positions will be up for grabs. Since no one will be a high salary must play, I expect that each guy will have to earn his spot. Play the guys who have potential if you have to break a tie, but show me a team full of hungry players who are scratching and clawing to pull every win out of the dirt and you’ll have a future winner.
In terms of the bottom line, I think 2026 is going to be ghastly. Probably low 60s in wins, barring some unforseen spending late in the off-season. I would expect by 2027 (if there is a season) that the team would be on the upswing, with a strong young core starting to be supplemented by smart acquisitions from the free agent and trade pool. I would hope to have the lineup 1, 2, at least two of the 3-5 guys, and most of the rest of the roster filled out, along with at least 3 pitchers who could reasonably be counted on in a seven game playoff series to give you a legit chance (Carlos Martinez or Sonny Gray type quality, if you will) by the end of 2027 for the 2028 season, even if those guys are rookies. Then I would expect Bloom and Dewitt to open the wallet for a big ticket free agent or trade in 2028 AND 2029, if available, to round out the team and push the chips in for a run in 2028-2031 for the “young core” cheap prime years.
Some of the question will be, can the new regime get more out of guys who have shown promise but aren’t quite there yet (or may even be far away)-guys like Masyn Winn, Herrera (can he be an elite, rather than very good bat?), Burleson, Gorman and Walker? Or will the next generation have to come from trades and guys who we haven’t yet drafted, sans Wetherholt, Doyle and Rodriguez?
Anyway, I would want to see the win progression go something like: 63, 78, 88+, 93+… Give us a roster and farm like we had in 2012-2014 and a little creativity (meaning, don’t shy back from the Scherzer) from the front office spending wise and I’ll be a happy Cards fan.
63 wins??? I think you’re vastly underestimating that win total. I suppose if Romero, Donovan, and Arenado are all indeed traded and there’s some bad luck and key injuries maybe they could get that low. But a lot would have to go wrong.
Right now I have them at 78 wins again pending what happens with those 3 on the trade market and the possible acquisitions to come. I think 72-85 wins would be the range within about 2 standard deviations. 63 looks ultra-low though. Losing Donovan and Romero would lower that some. But not into the 60’s.
The Cards won 78 this year with the talent of a 73 win team (Pythagorean of 74-88, WAR of 48+24.7=72.7), and then traded their best (only average or above) pitcher, have or likely will trade two of their four above average hitters, and their best bullpen piece. I’m going on the assumption that the team will look like this:
Crooks/Pages-Burleson-Saggese/Wetherholt-Winn–Gorman-Walker-Scott-Nootbaar-Herrera
Liberatore-May-McGreevy-Fitts-Pallante/Leahy
The bullpen and bench are largely irrelevant since then lineup is the worst I’ve ever witnessed as a Cardinal fan, and the pitching staff is probably the worst since I was watching Donovan Osborne pitch opening day in the late 90s. Put them together and I’m just not sure how anyone could see that team winning 75+ games. Maybe the bullpen is utterly lights out?
Anyway, back of the envelope math says 72.7-Gray (1.4), Contreras (2.5), Donovan (2.7), Romero (1.7), and Helsley’s 2025 (1.1) equals 63.3. That’s not including the loss of Maton (1.1), and the likelihood of O’Brien (1.6), Svanson (1.8) and Leahy (1.5) all repeating their great 2025s (Leahy possibly in a new role that he’s never shown effectiveness in before). There will have to be a lot of standout performances apart from those guys to get this team into the fringes of wild card contention, which is basically where they were this year for most of the year, and that was with Gray, Donovan, Contreras, Romero, Helsley for half the year, good injury luck, etc.
I see a lot of that too but that’s all the glass is half empty stuff. Here’s all the counter arguments:
Mikolas & Fedde are being replaced by several guys who all have to earn their spot by being better than the others. Plus a full year of McGreevey.
Pallante is unlikely to struggle as much and even if he does, to the point above, there are replacements.
Gray wasn’t actually all that good last season. Yes, his FIP was still good. But on-field results actually were mediocre as he ran an ERA around 4.3. That’s not impossible to improve upon. In all likelihood, his replacement probably ends up with similar results (although his “replacement” may be in aggregate.)
Walker has to be much better. If not, he gets released or sent to AAA. Either way, right field improves.
Burleson will no longer be patrolling the outfield. That’s a win for our defense and subsequently our pitchers.
Either Scott or Church is likely to be better offensively than what Scott was in his first full season.
The bullpen has boatloads of impressive young arms who could get cameos.
JJ Weatherholt gets added to the mix. He’s really good.
There’s also hope that Winn finds more improvement now that he’s comfortable in year 3 and that Nootbaar puts the foot problem behind him that potentially plagued him.
Those are all the things where I see things going right in ‘26 and to me, they basically offset all the things you mentioned that may go wrong. To me, that plants us once again in mediocrity, but not down in the basins of Rockies-level play.
That’s a glass overflowing look at it, I’d say. Hopefully it looks more like you see it, but I saw a team that was lucky to win 78 games this year and will have significantly less talent on hand next year. Marmol might deserve manager of the year (really) if he can successfully guide this squad to a .500ish record, as you suggest.
One caveat is that if the Cards add some talent back in the market after all the trades are done (another rotation piece, a righty OF bat), it may not be quite as bad as feared. But right now, the team is not better than anyone but Colorado and maybe the White Sox in MLB baseball if Donovan, Arenado and Romero are traded.
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