- This topic has 26 replies, 11 voices, and was last updated 1 year, 11 months ago by
.
-
Posts
-
All the first half numbers are in the books.
50-46 W/L, 2nd place NL Central, 4.5 games back.
Currently the final wild card team with a half game lead.BRwar rank within mlb:
(team total per position)SP 28th (1.1)
RP 6th (4.7)
P (all) 25th (5.8)C 6th (2.2)
1B 16th (0.7)
2B 19th (0.8)
3B 19th (1.0)
SS 8th (3.4)LF 11th (1.4)
CF 29th (-0.3)
RF 17th (0.5)
OF 22nd (1.6)DH 13th (1.2)
Non-P 18th (11.1)25th as pitchers and 18th as non-pitchers, and we’re buyers? Definitely fits the owners get lucky scenario, IF we can stay afloat.
They are who we thought they were.
I’ll stick with 78 to 83 wins subject of course to who the Wizard brings in at the trade deadline.
There are so few teams that are ‘good’ this season. 75-80% of teams ate just sub-par slaw.
The WC teams will just be the cream of the crap.
So, next-to-last in centerfield? Sounds like a real good reason to trade for Luis Robert….
I’d say the W-L record so far is a bit better than I expected — but the run differential is surprisingly terrible; in the Senior Circuit only Miami and Colorado are worse, of course. The run-scoring stinks. Bad lineup construction + timid baserunning will do that.
But yes, the Cards oughtta be buyers I think. Because they have roster redundancies to address, and trading some guys away right now makes more sense than waiting and waiting and then getting nothing or next to nothing in return, a la Tyler O’Neill.
Amazing that we’re still in the race for the Central when 4/5 of the middle of the order hasn’t performed.
Most anybody we might trade has gone down in value from a year ago. It would just be more band aid. Kick the can down the road.
Bob, missing Willson and Noot for extended periods has hurt the first half run scoring. With Edman full time, I’d have expect CF at at least 15th.
First 40 games our R/G was 3.4
Games 41-96 (to date) our R/G is 4.7
Our last 20 games we’re at 4.5 R/GThe RS is trending up, at least, and the most recent 56 games is a large enough sample I can buy in. But, with more IL’s the 2nd half, 18th as position players would be our norm.
——
Re: roster redundancies
Too many DH types. If Goldy doesn’t return, who do you like at 1B? In-house or acquire through trade?Bob Reed
So, next-to-last in centerfield? Sounds like a real good reason to trade for Luis Robert….
>> Likewise, it’s why Siani can’t be the starter.
Would love to see the Fangraphs breakdown, BProspectus, what ever numbers y’all want to post. An aggregate may be the way to go.
If these rankings were a true accurate assessment of a team, there’s no way we are 4 games over 500. They aren’t completely inaccurate, but that W L thing is the only metric that counts for anything. So while I don’t completely discount them, I understand there’s a lot more to your won loss record than your teams bwar rankings. With all that said, if you are at the bottom of the bwar rankings in a particular area, you probably should take a look at that.
but that W L thing is the only metric that counts for anything
That is true. Everything else is just noise. We will be buyers.
“Re: roster redundancies
Too many DH types. If Goldy doesn’t return, who do you like at 1B? In-house or acquire through trade?”For me, either Burly or Gorman at first base, with the other at DH full time (more or less). And return Tommy Edman to his Gold Glove defensive spot at least until Wetherholt is ready. I wouldn’t completely rule out a trade for, say, Yandy Diaz for 1st or DH if he could be had at a reasonable cost. But I’d rather save all trade ammo for much younger players than Yandy.
“…Siani can’t be the starter.”
Agreed. The Redbird manager persists with weird, almost fetishistic attachments to certain marginal players (last year Motter, this year Siani & Pages, and Carp to a lesser degree) who simply are not good enough overall as baseball players to justify the role assigned to them. Not when they undermine consistent playing time for guys with vastly more talent/potential like Gorman, Carlson, and Herrera.
Bob, I don’t pin this on Oli. He doesn’t set the roster. Did he keep bringing Motter back? Did he sign Carpenter and Crawford? He was given a four-man bench and at least three of them can’t hit a lick.
Regarding CF, with Edman out and Nootbaar apparently too injury prone to play there, the manager has only two suboptimal options – Siani vs. Carlson. Do we not agree that Siani is the better defender? I hope we agree.
OK, now consider their offense this season.
Siani 61 OPS+
Carlson 53 OPS+They both stink, so play the guy with the better glove.
Carlson is in his fifth MLB season and has over 1,600 career plate appearances. It is time to stop using the word “potential” with him. He needs a fresh start elsewhere. And if goes somewhere else and produces, good for him. He’s had his chances with StL.
If those are the only two choices in CF, which they won’t be when Edman is ready, then I get why Siani is playing. Carlson is going to be a bench player in either scenario (current or future) and is not performing well in that role. Unlike Carp and Pages, Carlson may have some trade value, though down from its peak.
“Carlson is in his fifth MLB season and has over 1,600 career plate appearances. It is time to stop using the word “potential” with him. He needs a fresh start elsewhere.”
As you say, Brian, Carlson has a substantial MLB track record — as a league-average bat, not a poor one. The current OPS+ of 53 is very, very, very likely to be a fluke, is my point of view. A fluke driven by highly sporadic playing time, severely limited by at-bats going to Siani and Carp. Carlson is 25 years old, so I’m assuming he’s not a player in decline.
But I do agree 100% that Dylan needs a fresh start someplace else, IF he can’t get 5-6 starts per week under the Arch.
Edman is rehabbing in the minors. At the point of his return, the OF is Donovan, Edman and Noot. Burly is the DH. It is between Carlson and Siani for the fourth OF. Neither one would get 5-6 starts per week, nor should they.
Carlson’s OPS+ per year:
2020: 68 (COVID year not a fair comparison for anyone)
2021: 115 (his only year at or above MLB average)
2022: 99
2023: 78
2024: 53This is not a fluke; it is a clear downward trend of about 20 OPS points per year over multiple years.
Siani has put up .6 WAR so far this year.
Carlson has put up negative .6 WAR so far this year so there is a 1.2 WAR difference between the two.
Carlson’s injury at the end of Spring Training really hurt him (so to speak). I wonder if he would have picked it back up to where his OPS+ was at least 100 had he started the year as the center fielder and played regularly for a few months.
That said, his days here are numbered and he needs to restart somewhere. Maybe he will come out here and in return Gomber will wear the birds on the bat again. Carlson’s glove would play here, and maybe the friendly confines of Coors, not to mention zero pressure to win, would jump start his offense. Then again the Rox have a good center fielder, but they could use him in a corner.
As for our first half, we played over our heads. Whether we can thank our lucky stars and improve over the second half and actually end up being pretty good, or we regress to more of who we really are is anyone’s guess.
Reinforcements to the offense and better starting pitching might just make us pretty good. But let’s just hope the bullpen does not lose a key member.
Gomber is a fine target Mike. I’d like his wiffle ball breaking stuff back on the staff.
Gomber escapes Colorado and Carlson can spray some singles around a huge OF.
StL should.I’d prefer a corner infielder at 1B, so I have Burly’s D at DH, and Gorman at 1B.
I’d trade either for pitching, or Walker. The redundancy for me is too many DH types wearing ballgloves.Anyone with a first baseman batting 7th or 8th finds a new one as soon as they can. We need to accept that reality about Gorman. His OPS+ is 93. I know, he’ll get better. Well, when he does, then lets talk. We need to stop pretending he is what we hoped he would be. It reminds me of how hard it was for many face facts about Carlson, which some still don’t.
Anyone who isn’t hoping and praying Walker has a better second half should start now. Meanwhile, we need to sober up about him. It’s not a case where we believe unless and until he proves he’s not what the hype said he was. After the first half he’s had, now its on him to prove he’s not just a guy in the minors. He’s been slumping bad since the middle of June with no end in sight. His OPS in Memphis is .683, and he hasn’t been doing that lately. Some think he is now a possible trade piece. I doubt it. Somebody else might turn him into a monster and Mo can’t have that. But h really needs to break out in the second half.
- You must be logged in to reply to this topic.