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I like to think in terms of series wins, not just total wins and losses. It helps to compartmentalize the season. I’m pretty sure managers and most players think this way to some degree, especially early in the season. So how many series wins do the Cards need for even a sliver of a chance at the playoffs, let’s say 85 wins?
There are 24 3-game series remaining, including the current PIT series, 5 4-game series, and 2 2-game series. Assuming the Cards split the seven even series each 2-2 and 1-1, they would need to win 21 of the remaining 24 series matchups by at least one game (2-1) to get to 85 wins.
31 wins so far
42 wins in the remaining 24 3-game series
10 wins from the 5 4-game series remaining
2 wins from the 2 2-game series remaining
85 wins totalBottom line: every time they lose a 3-game series by one game, they need to sweep a series somewhere or win a 4- or 2- game series by at least one game, or by some stroke of luck win more than 42 games in the remaining 24 3-game series.
15 of their remaining 24 3-game series are against teams below .500 as are 4 of the remaining 4-games series so there is some opportunity to pick up a few wins in those. But given their record to date, and their ability to lose against even poor teams, they have a steep uphill battle getting to 85 wins in head-to-head series matchups. Not impossible, but very unlikely.
A big problem is they have scored 4 runs or less in 40 of the 65 games they have played this year….it is difficult to win many series that way unless you have lights out pitching.
For me, we have 40 games remaining, if the FO waits until the last 3 deadline days, to become sellers or buyers.
The schedule isn’t overwhelming. Many divisional series with Cincy, cubbies and bucs.
Yeah, lots of teams with records similar to ours. A lot of parity with only the Mets, Rox and ‘Lins seemingly out of it in the NL.
I’m just not thrilled with being as bad as most of the rest of the National league. We’ve slipped way behind teams who go the extra mile to contend for titles. We just don’t do that anymore. And they get their feelings hurt when fans question their commitment to win.
Our club has certainly regressed to the mean you might say, over recent years. We have talked that to death, but it is so frustrating that we all need to get it out there.
And now this year management is saying a fifth starter and a righty center fielder. What about a 2 starter? We already have too many “5th” starters. And Carlson has been a decent righty hitter.
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