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We have a good problem to have. We have too many starting pitchers in the Minor Leagues. Way to many TBH. Some could get released. Others will be converted into relievers. And some others will stay starters because of injuries.
Time to take your best guess TCN!
Let’s address injuries first since it’s the most unpredictable. For the most part, there was almost always 1 extra started at every level last year due to someone being injured. Sometimes it was zero, sometimes 2 or even 3. But typically, it was one. So let’s just assume that. We will pick 6 starters for each level. I think that’s fairly safe.
Let’s also just ignore the Florida Complex. They have so many days where they have practice games where guys are starting while other guys start in a real game. And oftentimes, their starters don’t go more than 5 innings so it’s hard to call them all starters.
That gives us 6 spots per level times 4 levels. So 24 starting pitchers. We could take 1 extra for Memphis in the event someone is hurt in the MLB starting rotation. In fact, let’s just assume that given their age. So 25 starters. 7 at Memphis, 6 at Springfield, 6 at Peoria, and 6 at Palm Beach.
The Choices Based on Who Has Been a Regular Starter in the Past (in descending order by level of play):
Zach Thompson (may be in Cards BP)
Matthew Liberatore (may be in Cards BP)
Sem Robberse
Drew Rom
Adam Kloffenstein
Gordon Graceffo
Michael McGreevey
Victor Santos
Connor Thomas
Logan Gragg
Connor Lunn
Brandon Komar
Tekoah Roby
Tink Hence
Max Rajcic
Alex Cornwell
Ian Bedell
Trent Baker
Wilfredo Pereira
Cooper Hjerpe
Austin Love
Brycen Mautz
Inohan Paniagua
Pete Hansen
Hancel Rincon
Dionys Rodriguez
Zane Mills
Cade Winquest
Zack Showalter
Jason Savacool
Benjamin Arias
Jose Davila
Ixan Henderson
Quinn Mattews
Chen-Wei Lin
Alec Willis
Gerardo Salas
Darlin SaldinThat’s 38 starters to fit into our box of 25 spots. Maybe 1 of Libby or Rom or Thompson start in the MLB bullpen so there could be an extra spot there as well. Still, we need to choose who we are cutting and who is becoming a reliever. I have some thoughts, but I’ll let those of you who follow the minors closely like me weigh in first. So who is going to what level, who is becoming a reliever, and who is likely getting cut in Spring Training? You get a point for everyone you get right. 2 points for each cut you get right since that may be tougher.
Memphis
Rom
Klofffenstein
Graceffo
McGreevy
Santos
RobberseSpringfield
Cornwell
Baker
Bedell
Hjerpe
Roby
HencePeoria
Paniagua
Mills
Hansen
Mautz
Rajcic
RinconPalm Beach
Chen-Wei Lin
Mathews
Menes (not in your list)
Willis
Davila
ShowalterLeftovers (13)
AAA bullpen: Thomas
AA bullpen: Lunn, Komar, Pereira, Gragg
A+ bullpen: Rodriguez, Winquest, Savacool, Arias, Henderson
A bullpen: Salas, SaladinLove – Out til June – TJ surgery
This is a fun exercise and one I do a little closer to camp. Always interested in seeing what others think. These are very difficult calls.
As an aside, I asked about six-man rotations and tandems at WWU. I didn’t get a clear answer, but I was not laughed at, either. Without at least six per level, this equation would never close.
Pads, I appreciate you going on record, but I have some specific questions.
1) If Liberatore and Thompson are both in the StL pen, who is the #6 starter in waiting? Rom? It would almost have to be, as none of the other Memphis starters on your list are ready.
2) If L/T are both in the StL pen, who are the other six relievers? And more importantly, where did the others go?
Here are the most prominent eight pen names over and above L/T:
Helsley
Gallegos
King
Romero
Kittredge
Robertson
Pallante
Fernandez (R5)And if they sign another veteran reliever, this will only get tighter…
3) You don’t think Rajcic is ready for Double-A, where he ended 2023 as the Pitcher of the Year?
4) You think Savacool and Henderson will not even get a chance to start as pros, but will go straight to the pen? That indicates they only got one starter out of the entire 2023 draft… I’d be really surprised if they give up on them starting that quickly.
Thanks Pads for getting us kicked off here! I know its a tough exercise that takes a lot of thought and a few lucky guesses (especially since we haven’t even seen the guys in Spring training yet). I won’t be able to calculate the results until we are a week or two into the season so we can see how it truly settles out between who is a starter and who is a reliever. And even then it might be challenging if some guys are hurt.
I’d like to see a few others try it out – especially you prospect rankers! Take a shot at showing us how well you know your minor league starters!
Quick reminder on the format:
Choose any of the starters above who you believe will be in the St. Louis bullpen.
Choose 7 starters for Memphis (one extra for Memphis injuries and one extra for a St. Louis injury).
Choose 6 starters for each of Springfield, Peoria, and Palm Beach.
Choose who gets moved to a reliever from the above list. (yes, I know some could become “swing men” which can get confusing, but for our purposes, they’ll be a reliever).
Finally, choose any of the above who you believe will be cut from the organization altogether.One point for each successful guess and 2 points for each right answer on the roster cuts.
Cardinals Bullpen: Liberatore
Memphis: Zach Thompson, Sem Robberse, Gordon Graceffo, Michael McGreevey, Adam Kloffenstein, Drew Rom, Victor Santos
Springfield: Tekoah Roby, Tink Hence, Brandon Komar, Max Rajcic, Ian Bedell, Cooper Hjerpe
Peoria: Brycen Mautz, Pete Hansen, Inohan Paniagua, Hancel Rincon, Quinn Matthews, Dionys Rodriguez
Palm Beach: Zack Showalter, Ixan Henderson, Chen-Wei Lin, Alec Willis, Gerardo Salas, Darlin Saladin
Converted to Relief: Connor Thomas, Logan Gragg, Alex Cornwell, Trent Baker, Wilfredo Pereira, Austin Love, Cade Winquest, Jason Savacool, Benjamin Arias, Jose Davila
Released: Connor Lunn, Zane Mills
My toughest picks were Alex Cornwell, Trent Baker, Jason Savacool, and Benjamin Arias all moving to relief and Zane Mills getting cut. But some had to move and I think these are the most likely. I also had a tough time deciding on Quinn Matthews’ level. He could easily start at PB, which might displace someone elsewhere. But with his age and college experience, I’m putting him at Peoria.
Putting this back on top. Is no one else willing to play? This is kind of like ranking prospects only now you’re just focusing on starting pitchers.
1) If Liberatore and Thompson are both in the StL pen, who is the #6 starter in waiting? Rom? It would almost have to be, as none of the other Memphis starters on your list are ready.
2) If L/T are both in the StL pen, who are the other six relievers? And more importantly, where did the others go?
I think, without a doubt, one of our top 5 starters won’t be able to go due to injury, if not Liberator or Thompson themself, so Libby and ZT will be in that spot. Secondly, the other would be in the bullpen.
3) You don’t think Rajcic is ready for Double-A, where he ended 2023 as the Pitcher of the Year?
I don’t know how they will fit in the other guys otherwise. They need to see what they have in Bedell for one. Then some of the guys here have spoken highly of Cornwell, so I left him in the rotation. Rajcic was just a casualty of numbers.
4) You think Savacool and Henderson will not even get a chance to start as pros, but will go straight to the pen? That indicates they only got one starter out of the entire 2023 draft… I’d be really surprised if they give up on them starting that quickly.
Similar to Rajcic here, just casualty of numbers. If things were to hold, I think both guys will actually be in a tandem with one of the other starters anyway.
If Bloom is here to help fix the farm system, then these decisions are exactly what he was brought in to facilitate. I don’t think there is good reason to expect the decisions to look the same as we are used to. Lets hope they don’t look the same.
2) If L/T are both in the StL pen, who are the other six relievers? And more importantly, where did the others go?
Here are the most prominent eight pen names over and above L/T:
Helsley
Gallegos
King
Romero
Kittredge
Robertson
Pallante
Fernandez (R5)And if they sign another veteran reliever, this will only get tighter…
I do want to address this too. I couldn’t care less about 3 of those names or where they end up – King, Robertson, Fernandez – Likewise, O’Brien, Zuniga, Naughton, Wk Rodriguez, Raquet, and James are all just bullpen filler imo, some with more promise than others, but still just filler.
It seems likely that at least one starter won’t answer the bell when we get underway, so one of Liby-Thompson will be in the rotation and the other will be #6 starting at Memphis. Whether those 8 named above will be the pen, I don’t know. Apart from health, I expect to see new guys more than returnees. Our pen stunk and Mo brought in a ton of new guys. I think he will play them.
Not very good at this, but will give my 2 cents:
Cardinals Bullpen: Thompson
Memphis: Matthew Liberatore, Gordon Graceffo, Adam Kloffenstein, Michael McGreevey, Sem Robberse, Drew Rom, Victor Santos
Springfield: Ian Bedell, Alex Cornwell, Tink Hence, Brandon Komar, Max Rajcic, Tekoah Roby
Peoria: Brycen Mautz, Pete Hansen, Cooper Hjerpe, Inohan Paniagua, Hancel Rincon, Quinn Matthews
Palm Beach: Zack Showalter, Ixan Henderson, Chen-Wei Lin, Alec Willis, Darlin Saladin, Jose Davila
Converted to Relief: Connor Thomas, Logan Gragg, , Dionys Rodriguez, Trent Baker, Wilfredo Pereira, Austin Love, Cade Winquest, Jason Savacool, Benjamin Arias, Gerardo Salas
Released: Connor Lunn, Zane Mills
Very similar to the others, but a few changes. No idea how injuries will change these picks, but performance will dictate where people are placed.
I didn’t study what others posted but did have a 6 man staff pencilled in before spring training:
Memphis: Liberatore
Graceful
McGreevy
Kloffenstein
Robberse
SantosSpringfield:
Roby
Hence
Rajcic
Befell
Cornwell
BakerPeoria:
Hjerpe
Maura
Hansen
Rincon
Mills
AriasPalm Beach:
Mathews
Henderson
Davila
Willis
Savocool
MenesBrian Walton
Thanks for the replies, Pads!
No problem. Sorry if I am a bit more apathetic than usual about the new bullpen guys. We had a clear need for bullpen help and have not gotten it at all. It’s just frustrating to see a clear need and see it not get addressed.
Flood – who are you moving out of the Palm Beach rotation for Showalter and is that person just going to relief or being cut?
I found that during the week after work I just couldn’t put the mental energy into coming up with the rotations. My plan was to finish it up and get it posted this morning (Saturday), but now I have to go in 5-noon. So it will be this afternoon or Sunday now.
Pads said:
No problem. Sorry if I am a bit more apathetic than usual about the new bullpen guys. We had a clear need for bullpen help and have not gotten it at all. It’s just frustrating to see a clear need and see it not get addressed.
While “bargain buys” time is still ahead, it is tough to imagine them adding a difference maker.
it is tough to imagine them adding a difference maker.
It is less tough if you acknowledge the possibility of a trade.
Jnevel
Flood – who are you moving out of the Palm Beach rotation for Showalter and is that person just going to relief or being cut?
With all the tandem starts they do now, maybe it would be best to go with 7 man rotations haha.
I acknowledge that anything is possible but the probability is very small that they will add a difference maker.
bling said:
It is less tough if you acknowledge the possibility of a trade.
Of course, there is a chance of a trade, until there isn’t. But are you really holding onto that as the pen depth solution? If so, what odds do you put on it?
I am sure not holding my breath. My take is they’d rather spend money than give up players. But they don’t want to spend money or give up players, so what is left?
More Josh James lottery tickets, I guess…
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