photo: Austin Love (Brian Walton/The Cardinal Nation)
At no. 40 in The Cardinal Nation’s prospect countdown for 2024 is a promising right hander who has the materials for success, but his ability to develop further has been slowed by injury. FREE article.
Position: Starting pitcher
Age: 23 years old
Bats/Throws: R/R
Height/Weight – 6’3/232
Acquired: Selected in the third round of the 2021 First-Year Player Draft, 90th overall
Hometown: Salisbury, North Carolina
Opened 2023: Peoria Chiefs (High-A)
Primary team in 2023: Peoria Chiefs injured list (High-A)
Finished 2023: Peoria Chiefs 60-day injured list (High-A)
Prior Top 50 rankings – 2023 #24, 2022 #22
Click on the above photo to be taken to Love’s player page at The Cardinal Nation, with additional biography and history information.
Blake Newberry’s scouting report
Blake’s ranking – no. 33
(current grade/future grade)
| FB | SL | CB | CH | Command | Future Value |
| 45/50 | 55/65 | 40/50 | 35/55 | 35/45 | 35 |
| IP | G | GS | ERA | WHIP | K% | BB% | HR/9 | K-BB% | FIP | xFIP | GB% | BABIP |
| 8.2 | 2 | 2 | 6.23 | 1.38 | 26.3% | 7.9% | 0.00 | 18.4% | 2.58 | 3.47 | 45.5% | .375 |
Last year I was high enough on Austin Love to rank him as the 23rd best prospect in the system. He may have missed almost the entire 2023 season with injury, but I still feel similarly about him. His profile may have a bit more risk now and he is a year older, so he does slide down 10 spots for me, but he’s only just outside my personal top 30.
The reason for that is simple. He still has a chance to start and if that doesn’t work out, he has the stuff to profile as a very good reliever. That ranks him well ahead of Andrew Marrero, for example, who is a relief only prospect (albeit a good one) with more command issues than Love.
The problem with Love, obviously, is that the clock is ticking. He will be 25 years old next season and has only one season of professional ball under his belt. He will also be Rule 5 eligible following the 2024 season.
Because of these factors, the Cardinals could very well try to fast track Love by making him a reliever. If that’s the way they want to go, then I certainly understand it.
I want Love to remain a starter, though. At least for now. I think he can handle it because he has enough pitches to attack hitters in multiple ways. The problem is that he doesn’t use them.
The righty is fastball and slider heavy, which is a shame because his changeup looks like a good pitch that could really help neutralize the large platoon splits that Love has shown in his career. I wrote about it last year and I’m writing about it again. I really want to see him be more aggressive with that pitch. It has good fading life and has looked effective against lefties in his limited usage of it. If there’s a pitch that is likely to determine his future career path, it’s probably the changeup.
It’s thrown hard around 87 mph, which gives it only a 6-mph difference on average with his fastball, but it still gets enough depth and run to provide a different look and be effective.
Either he develops it, uses it to get lefties out, and remains a starter or he sticks to his current fastball/slider attack and probably moves to the bullpen.
There’s a chance that Love could throw more curveballs and more sinkers to give himself that extra variety and maybe one of those pitches turns into something he can lean on against lefties but it’s the changeup that I really want to see more of.
This is some great stuff by Austin Love. Look at that fade on the changeup on the first pitch of the gif. Then he goes up with his fastball to get the strikeout pic.twitter.com/KQSC8KVRFc
— Kyle Reis, 58% Neanderthal (@kyler416) August 7, 2022
Austin love solicits the swing of the night with his changeup.
This doesn't strikeout the hitter, but maybe it should. pic.twitter.com/FIqGTnYzSn— Kyle Reis, 58% Neanderthal (@kyler416) August 25, 2022
Boy oh boy, does that look like a plus pitch. It’s probably better than the current 35 I’m giving it but consider that more of a statement about its usage and not its nastiness.
A very exciting piece of the puzzle is Love’s slider so that’s what I want to talk about next. It’s a nasty breaker. It’s a hard, tight, mid-80’s offering with plenty of depth and good two-plane movement that gets a lot of whiffs and can be used effectively to freeze hitters early in the count.
Love uses it a lot and he should. It’s his best pitch.
The curveball is more of a change of pace offering that he doesn’t throw all that much but when he does throw it, it has good sharp depth. It’s thrown hard too, typically sitting around 82 mph, which limits its movement a bit but does make that movement sharper.
It’s a nice pitch to have in the arsenal but it’s not nearly as nasty as his slider. Still, it provides hitters with a different look and could be especially useful against lefties and that’s valuable if Love is going to remain a starter going forward.
Love’s fastball is standard. It sits about 93 mph and has average shape. It doesn’t get a ton of ride but Love’s relatively low release point, a product of his funky delivery, helps the pitch play at the top of the zone. Love likes to keep that fastball high and isn’t great at locating it down so the pitch is at its most effective when it’s thrown at the letters.
Love mixes in a sinker too but he doesn’t throw it all that much. It has a pretty typical shape with decent arm side run.
Beyond a true third pitch and a platoon-neutral offering, the biggest question mark for Love is command. There are times when he can dot his pitches and locate well, and he can be particularly nasty when he’s doing that. The problem is that this command isn’t consistent yet and can fluctuate from inning to inning.
And when his command is off, it’s off. That means his slider isn’t close enough to the zone to tempt hitters and his fastball is missing its spot completely. The command here is better than that of most of the pitchers who follow him in the Top 50 (Gullermo Zuniga, Marrero, Leonardo Taveras) but it’s still very much a work in progress.
It has flashed enough for me to grade it as a potential 50 but I wouldn’t be shocked if it ended up a bit lower than that, which is why I have it as a future 45.
The lost 2023 season is obviously a concern for Love, but he still does enough things well for it to not affect my ranking of him too much. He misses bats, has enough command in the profile to not be overly concerned, can really spin a breaking ball, has a big arsenal of pitches (even if he doesn’t use them all enough) and has a fastball that plays up because of his unorthodox delivery.
Because of that, I’m still relatively high on Love.
Summary: There’s plenty of refinement needed but Love checks a lot of boxes for a pitcher and could be heading for a breakout year if he can stay healthy.
Future Value: 35
Role: AAAA player/middle relief/spot starter
Risk: High
Brian Walton’s environmental impact report
Brian’s ranking – no. 43
My ranking might appear that I am no longer in love with Love. He wouldn’t be the first to rebound in these rankings later on, but circumstances suggest that isn’t happening soon.
Background
At the University of North Carolina, Love began in the bullpen. He showed an ability to pitch in longer stints and moved into the rotation in 2021. The right-hander redshirted twice, in 2018 as a freshman, and again in 2020 due to COVID. As a result, he pitched as a sophomore in 2021.
While starting, Love logged a 3.71 ERA and 129 strikeouts in 102 innings. He walked 2.8 batters per nine innings while averaging over six innings per start as a Tar Heel.
Taken in the third round as St. Louis’ fourth selection in the 2021 draft at 90th overall, Love signed for $600,000, $57,600 under slot. The savings were pooled with money from others to sign second-round outfielder Joshua Baez and right-handed pitcher Alec Willis for above slot amounts.
As was the case for all the pitchers the organization drafted in 2021, Love reported to the Jupiter facility and remained there with the rookie-level Florida Complex League Cardinals.
The organization protected Love, not activating him until a month after signing. He received five starts, all exactly one inning in duration, the first of which was on August 19. He remained on a starter’s schedule, typically throwing in game action every fifth day.
Despite appearing three straight times against Astros rookie level hitters, Love was very effective for the FCL Cardinals. He allowed just one run in five innings on two hits, no walks and nine strikeouts. FCL batters hit a collective .119 against him.
On September 14, Love became the fifth member of the 2021 pitching draft class to be promoted to Low-A Palm Beach, following first-rounder Michael McGreevy, Gordon Graceffo (5th round), Andre Granillo (14th) and Andrew Marrero (18th).
For the Beach Birds, Love made two relief appearances to close the season. Over three innings, he yielded one hit and one walk and fanned four. While his overall workload was minimal and structured, Love had a very good professional debut.
To open 2022, Love could have been assigned to either Class-A club but in spring camp, he earned the nod to join the more advanced of the two, High-A Peoria.
His 2022 was a tale of two seasons in one. Love showed improvement in the second half after a very rough April, May and June. Through 14 starts, he carried some concerning numbers including a 7.32 ERA, a 1.77 WHIP an opposing batting average against of .326.
From July 1 on, covering his final 12 starts covering 63 innings, Love compiled a 4.14 ERA.
For the full season, Love led the entire Cardinals system with 151 strikeouts, despite being only eighth in innings pitched, and had a very good strikeout rate of 10.8 per nine innings. He was also wild at times, finishing fourth in walks (52), second with 10 wild pitches and tied for fifth with seven hit batters.
His 4.04 FIP and 3.79 xFIP were encouraging. Another factor, perhaps, was his .366 BABIP, suggesting some bad luck. Love’s ground ball to fly ball ratio of 1.39 was second-best in the Midwest League.
Love’s difficulties with left-handed batters increased in 2022. Not only were his strikeouts down vs. lefties, his walks and hits were up, leading to an unacceptable 2.07 WHIP against them.
On the other hand, Love was very successful against right-handed batters, with a .222 batting average against and a strikeout rate of 11.4 per nine. The problem is that Love had pitch to both, which dragged down his results considerably.
2023 recap
There isn’t much to say about Love’s 2023 because he didn’t have much of a season. Love did not make the Double-A rotation out of spring camp, instead returning to Peoria. That was not a major concern. However, what happened shortly after is.
After just two starts with a 6.23 ERA, Love was placed on the seven-day injured list on April 21. After a period of assessment and testing, Love was moved to the 60-day IL on May 30 and underwent Tommy John surgery in June.
I spoke with Love in August after he arrived in Jupiter to continue his rehab, which could last 12 months.
2024 outlook
Blake outlined a proposal for Love to address his deficiencies, which include adjusting his pitch arsenal to emphasize his changeup and improve his results against left-handed hitters. However, even when he was still healthy, we don’t know if such a plan had been charted, let alone would become successful.
We probably won’t see Love until the second half of the 2024 season, and even then, he is going to have to build his arm up gradually. Likely he won’t be starting; instead working shorter bursts in relief. Another return to Peoria seems most likely, though he could initially enter rehab games with one of the Jupiter squads after working in extended spring training.
Given all Love has on his plate just to try to get back to his prior effectiveness with his core offerings, expecting that he has time and bandwidth to also make headway on significantly bettering his secondary pitches may not be reasonable in 2024.
The reality is that we don’t know how Love will fare coming off post-surgery rehab. Nor do we know how his offerings will be, which ones may improve or decline, his resiliency, or anything else.
But if he returns and makes progress during the second half, Love could be a good candidate to extend his season in the 2024 Arizona Fall League.
Future outlook
While Love isn’t quite out of career runway, time is marching on. The Cardinals have continued to select starting pitchers in the two drafts since he joined the organization. The possibility is real that because of the time lost, Love could be shifted to the pen with a focus on being the best two-pitch pitcher he can be.
An alternative is to keep Love on the starting path to come to 2025 camp ready to fully pick up his career where he left off in early 2023. Competing for the Springfield rotation could be a reasonable target.
But that may not be aggressive enough. St. Louis will have to make a 40-man decision about Love following the 2024 season. It seems unlikely by then that he will have shown enough coming off Tommy John to be protected, but he probably wouldn’t be lost in the draft, either, instead remaining in the organization.
Mastering Springfield in 2025 and Memphis in 2026 (if he can also get through the 2025 Rule 5 Draft or earns a 40-man spot) might best position him to debut with St. Louis late in 2026. Otherwise, Love could depart that fall as a minor league free agent.
This uncertainty, including health, offerings, role and timing, coupled with other candidates who are moving ahead while he cannot, are major reasons Love has slid down my list of prospects. On the other hand, if he prevails over his adversity and gets his career progression in high gear, there is nothing to stop Love from earning his way back up the Top 50.
MLB debut: 2026
Rule 5 eligible: 2024
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Our 2024 Top 50 series continues
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50 Days, 50 Nights, 50 St. Louis Cardinals Prospects for 2024
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