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I realize that there are many ways / metrics available to track and evaluate a pitcher’s performance but the bottom line – runs allowed – is what ERA is all about.
(It’s understood that shoddy defense that doesn’t show up as an error can contribute to a pitcher’s ERA and errors still result in extending innings and pitch counts.)
So, the question: What is a reasonable threshold for ERA when you really need to replace the pitcher with another?
Setting ‘league average’ and ballpark factors aside – for me it’s 4.50 for your low leverage guys / 4th & 5th starters. (That equates to 1 ER every 2 innings pitched.)
Clearly you want the top of your starting rotation to be under 3.50 and your 7-9 high leverage bullpen guys under 2.50 (or better).
I’m asking what you guys think is the threshold for a guy to be taking up one of the last 3 spots in the ML staff.
4.50 ERA over 6 IP is also a quality start. It didn’t use to seem like much of an accomplishment, but in todays run environment the quality in quality start has gained some credibility.
Still, thru today, mlb avg ERA is 4.35
If SP3 can pitch to an ERA of 4.35, or under, he’s an “innings eater” that gives his team a chance to win regularly.
SP4 you’d expect could stay under 5.00
SP5 5+ ERA.
All our starters have accumulated a 5.01 ERA this season.
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Fyi, we as a staff have allowed a 113 ops+ avg to rhb’s and a 115 ops+ to lhb’s.Context? Arenado is currently a 114 ops+ for the season. Our pitchers have allowed Arenado results to every batter they’ve faced this season. Pretty sad.
I don’t have a feel for that sort of thing in today’s game. For example, there used to be loogys and other pen role players who would come in to get one certain hitter out in a specific situation. Those that were good and dialed in could have an exceptionally low ERA. So many aspects of the game have evolved. How do you compare ERA of a twice through the order guy with the starters who go three times through? What about a pen guy who acts as an opener, or one time through the order guy? I have no idea.
My idea of a good starter is a guy who can go 6+ every 5 days, stop the bleeding and keep the team in the game. The ERA is not my focus.
To me, and ERA above 4.0 is mediocre and you should be at least exploring upgrades.
An ERA above 4.50, you have to actively seek out upgrades with urgency.
An ERA above 5.0 – What are you doing? Find someone else, now.
Like some others on this thread, I happen to believe ERA is the definitive grand daddy of all pitching stats. Runs are the net bottom line of any game score so, in my view, preventing the other team from pushing runs across HP is the crux of the entire pitching biscuit. Here’s the top 10 Big League leaders from a season in which some sexy looking ERA’s were put up on the board by some guys you may remember…
1. B. Gibson, 1.12
2. L. Tiant, 1.60
3. S. McDowell, 1.81
4. D. McNally, 1.95
5. D. McClain, 1.96
6. T. John, 1.98
7. B. Bolin, 1.99
8. S. Bahnsen, 2.05
9. B. Veale, 2.05
10. J. Koosman, 2.08Anyone remember the year?…Haha! Also, I would have bet a dollar that Bob Gibson led the entire Big Leagues in CG’s that season, but noooo…Marichal with 30 CG’s beat out both Gibson and McClain who tied for second place with 28 of ’em. And yeah, we all know about how they don’t throw as much dirt out there in the center of the IF as they used to, but they also don’t make arms like they used to either…
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