photo: Roger Dean Stadium (Steve Mitchell/USA TODAY Sports)
A revised play resumption proposal for Major League Baseball was surfaced on Friday by Bob Nightengale of USATODAY. While it appears more feasible logistically than the earlier Arizona Plan, it is not without major questions.
Rather than bringing all 30 MLB teams to Arizona, this newer spin, the Arizona-Florida Plan, has each club based out of its own spring training facility. That means 15 teams would play in Florida and 15 in Arizona.
Because of the geographic dispersion in Florida, there would be three clustered divisions. In Arizona, creating a balanced schedule would not be an issue, with all 15 clubs located in the Phoenix area.
Nightengale suggested these six divisions within two different leagues:
GRAPEFRUIT LEAGUE
- NORTH: New York Yankees, Philadelphia Phillies, Toronto Blue Jays, Detroit Tigers, Pittsburgh Pirates.
- SOUTH: Boston Red Sox, Minnesota Twins, Atlanta Braves, Tampa Bay Rays, Baltimore Orioles.
- WEST: Washington Nationals, Houston Astros, New York Mets, St. Louis Cardinals, Miami Marlins.
CACTUS LEAGUE
- NORTHEAST: Chicago Cubs, San Francisco Giants, Arizona Diamondbacks, Colorado Rockies, Oakland A’s.
- WEST: Los Angeles Dodgers, Chicago White Sox, Cincinnati Reds, Cleveland Indians, Los Angeles Angels.
- NORTHWEST: Milwaukee Brewers, San Diego Padres, Seattle Mariners, Texas Rangers, Kansas City Royals.
Here are some issues and considerations related to scheduling only that I see with this new proposal – both out of the gate as well as later in 2020.
Short-term schedule implications
By definition, the uneven alignment would require one team in each league to play a daily doubleheader against two different opponents, reports Nightengale. This opens questions about disinfecting visitors clubhouses quickly, for example. Perhaps not a showstopper in itself, but just a reminder of how even normally little things can really matter in times like this.
The designated hitter would be used in all games, per the report. With uneven numbers of American and National League teams in each division, this seems to be the fairest answer. Expanded rosters, likely necessary anyway, could assist NL teams in adapting to the change.
The article said that teams “could still play 12 games apiece against their new divisional opponents and six games apiece against the other teams in the state.”
In Florida, both due to health restrictions and the sheer travel distances involved, I do not see how that latter “six games apiece” idea would be feasible.
Normally, when teams from one part of Florida play in another part of the state in the spring, overnight trips are required. That would add significant health exposure questions.
If it gets to that, an in-division-only schedule in Florida would mimic the alignment of the Gulf Coast League. But of course, the priority in rookie-level leagues is player development over winning each day’s game and finishing first in the standings. MLB is a different matter entirely.
Even so, the safest schedule may be the one that is least competitive on the field. Such tradeoffs could be necessary to get the plan off the ground.
Longer term schedule implications
Clearly, these marriages by convenience would set up some new and interesting rivalries. The original 2020 schedule would be scrapped and a new one devised to replace it.
What I find most intriguing about this proposal is the implication that the changes necessary to begin play early could also perhaps restrict MLB from being able to return to its home cities this fall – even if a coronavirus all-clear was sounded.
Would owners be willing to trade off no stadium-based revenue for the entire 2020 season in return for starting early in Florida and Arizona?
Just take the Cardinals’ proposed 2020 division as an example. In a back-to-normal schedule, their in-division road games would be in Washington, Miami, New York and Houston. That would be a grueling travel routine compared to the normal Chicago, Cincinnati, Milwaukee and Pittsburgh trips.
This also makes a huge and highly unlikely assumption – that the revised Arizona-Florida schedule has the same teams playing one another in traditional three- or four-game series. That is not how a normal spring training schedule is set up.
For example, it would be business as usual while in Florida to play Miami one day, Houston the next and Washington in day three. But if the teams return to their real homes, a spring training-like schedule would obviously not work due to the excessive travel.
Instead, in a theoretical mid-shortened season return to normalcy, would the owners tear up the Arizona-Florida interim schedule and create yet another one – to pick up play when allowed back in their real homes?
In summary, the (understandable) allure to owners to get home gate revenue later looks to be compromised by the changes needed to start play earlier in Arizona and Florida.
Then again, perhaps this is an implicit acknowledgement that a return to normal, including home games of 40,000 people or more assembled in today’s hotspots like New York, may not happen in 2020?
As with any proposal to begin play early, there are going to be questions, but with each new idea, some of the inhibitors change.
The best answer, of course, remains the same – an antidote for the deadly virus – but that is far bigger than baseball.
In the meantime, and with the proper safeguards first and foremost, they should keep working on ways to bring the game back. This one might work – at least from a logistical perspective – but only with significant compromises that may or may not be palatable.
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